urbanSTL

Eh. We'll find out soon enough.

Remember, we're asking them to invest significant resources, and money, into Lambert to make it an actual cargo hub as opposed to a random flight destination. That's not an easy thing to do. Nothing's set in stone. Yet.

Want to get worried about this? Really? If so, start looking at Chinese disinvestment into Treasury securities to peg to the renmimbi, with the reallocation of about $100B worth of Treasuries within the last month or so, something which has jack-nothing to do with the cargo hub. We're still in the Great Recession, possibly a Depression, that takes down with it much more than just credit and debt for new construction in Downtown. And, the effects are truly multinational, more than ever before since the advent of our evolved global economy. Personally, and professionally, I wouldn't be surprised to see things get A LOT worse in the very near future. Yeah, no kidding.

Global macroeconomics trump local development.
But we're presenting a global development opportunity, and we all want that.

Two planes a week, into a designated international cargo hub, by 2011? Sounds great.
I'll put the odds on it happening and maturing over many years into something possibly redefining for the region.
Say, 5 to 2.

sirshankalot wrote:Thanks for the macro economics lesson. As a foreign currency trader myself, I need those two minutes back badly. Beware of the rise of the CNH.

Personally, I stay away from FX; just not my thing. I work in common equity strategies. You'd be the expert here.

Without going too far OT, what I intended really was not to the particulars of the USD or CNH but to the instability of the US economy, and many other global economies, and how it relates to the Chinese peg. I see the Euro in the crapper and the $100B divestment of Treasury bonds. Meanwhile, the renmimbi remains strong (although their real estate markets are crazy), and many banks are using them as a standard for international settlement, including C and JPM. But, weren't the Chinese using a basket between EURs and USDs predominantly for their peg? (I've read some of how they're diversifying into SEAsia, but I don't recall the particulars) From this, isn't it rational to take away they are less confident in the USD? Could any lack of confidence in the USD influence their views of investing here?

As well as the peg changes, I'm thinking of domestic demand for goods. If domestic demand doesn't pick up, may the Chinese say there isn't strong enough demand here to warrant a hub when they visit in October? Just a thought.

Just saying it's scary out there, beyond what goes on between StL and Beijing.
And please, share your assessment. If you've got better, post it.

Focus: Senator McCaskill "optomistic", at least 2 flights per week into Lambert by next year.
Source: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt ... 2bc8b.html

And: Mike Jones says next month's arrival of Chinese gov't & airline officials is "make or break" of the hub talks. Also: “Next month, I expect a breakthrough for a framework for a deal,”
Source: http://stlouis.bizjournals.com/stlouis/ ... ily13.html

NEWS:

KMOX: McCaskill: Lambert China Hub moving closer to reality
http://kmox.cbslocal.com/2010/09/08/mcc ... o-reality/

KWMU: McCaskill expects China cargo flights to start by next year
http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kwmu/ ... .next.year

STL BUSINESS JOURNAL:
Jones: Chinese visit next month most critical yet for trade hub
http://stlouis.bizjournals.com/stlouis/ ... ily13.html

goat314 wrote:So is this done deal? What are the ramifications? When will we see jobs?

This is not a done deal until the papers are signed. We don’t want to be Leon Lett here, running for the end zone proudly while Don Beebee is ready to knock the ball out of our hands. After all, today China announced new tariffs on chicken from the US because of “dumping” of US birds.
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ahead-of- ... et=&ccode=

Meanwhile, there’s a whole lot to like here. Politicians, NGOs, and businesses all love this. The airports are praying for all this to work. Developers of ancillary projects, like NorthPark and those guys wanting to put up west-side warehouses, are banking on this. On the national level, the President met with the Chinese Premier recently to talk mostly about economics and trade (who knows if they discussed the Trade Hub or not).

The first flights would start next year. With the inflow of fresh US agricultural goods, demand could spike, especially if these new products are highly demanded by this new market. The same thing could be said for other goods shipped over there, such as pharmaceuticals or high-tech equipment. Should this demand rise strongly, more flights will be booked. I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see daily flights in the reasonable near future.

Preliminary jobs would be made from the simple duties of loading & unloading planes, and managing warehouses of goods in and out. Once the China-bound products are best determined by displayed demand (beef or technology?) from consumers, then we can see ancillary jobs come in play at a strong level based on this demand. This could mean factories being built nearby for international shipment, as well as construction projects. From there, we could see Chinese companies coming into Saint Louis to set up US operations, or at least operations near the airport for their goods shipments. As well, increased interaction could lead to more jobs from Saint Louis-based companies, such as Emerson and Monsanto, who are now made more aware to the Chinese market, and may be better-received as coming from Saint Louis, a partner in trade. From there, Chinese direct investment into opportunities in Saint Louis, whether as a joint venture with local companies or real estate speculation, may follow.

Whatever happens will be based on other factors, including:
1. The final signing of the documents;
2. Demonstrated implementation of planned logistics;
3. Proper demand from consumers; and
4. Global economic strength.

It won’t be apparent when a possible “boom” of jobs takes place, but I bet there will be jobs developing in time.
Possibly quickly.

I’m changing my odds for this actually happening from 5/2 to 3/1.

Gone Corporate wrote:I’m changing my odds for this actually happening from 5/2 to 3/1.

Did you mean to say that?

Alex Ihnen wrote:

Gone Corporate wrote:I’m changing my odds for this actually happening from 5/2 to 3/1.

Did you mean to say that?

As in: Odds of it happening are three times more likely Yes than No (not "payout").

Just wasn't sure that you were saying it's become less likely than before.

U.S. Secretary of Commerce touts Midwest-China Hub

http://www.globe-democrat.com/news/2010 ... china-hub/

I have a copy of the South China Morning Post from a couple weeks ago (can't get a decent web link for sourcing) with the main business section's headline being:

Beijing Warns of Risks of Dollar Volatility

Then, we have the KMOX link from above, featuring the paragraph:

Backers of the (tariff) bill say China’s manipulation of its currency, keeping it artificially low, is killing U-S jobs. They point to statistics showing 2.4 million U-S jobs have been lost since China was admitted to the World Trade Organization in 2001, and warn another 400,000 U-S jobs could be lost this year as the U-S trade deficit with China continues to rise.

This is amidst domestic fiscal policies that many outside the US says manipulates the value of the US Dollar. Right now, we are the pot calling the kettle black. Who happen to be small-C communists, by the way. What a mess.

Focus: The stories on getting ALL of StL City AND County as part of a free trade zone... wow, that's big. It wasn't so long ago that expanding the FTZ at Lambert was considered a big deal; this is monstrous.

I'm not familiar with any other major cities or metro areas doing this; can someone give examples if you all know of any?
How would such a regional FTZ be implemented?
And honestly, how realistic is this? Pipe dream, or fast-track?

Indianapolis, Columbus, Louisville, Chicago, etc. etc. - there are quite a few cities doing the same thing. A regulatory change a year or two ago has allowed for this.

gary kreie wrote:We will eventually need to think differently in this country to compete with China Inc. We have this view of capitalism that holds it is OK for big corporations (like Walmart) to drive small businesses into bankruptcy, because it is survival of the fittest, and we all benefit from lower prices due to improved efficiency of the larger corporations.

Aside from again repeating the nonsense about Walmart, you're saying we don't benefit from lower prices as a result of improved efficiency? I sure do.