2020 Census

joelo · PostMar 24, 2017#3762017-03-24T16:14+00:00

imperialmog wrote: ↑
Mar 24, 2017

Chalupas54 wrote: ↑
Mar 24, 2017
I'll just quote one specifically: " I have no reason to believe that the St Louis metro saw a population loss. From the amount of transactions underway, I would estimate there must have been a gain of near two thousand in St Louis county. These numbers are incorrect." In addition to other comments here, the only city that I *buy* population loss for is Cleveland.

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One issue that could be in play is smaller household sizes and lower birthrates. And in specific areas like in areas of South City there were combining housing units creating a net loss of people in a place but tended to be much wealthier. Another on a metro level is that the Metro East has been a lot weaker in recent years with almost all areas losing population which can likely explain a huge part of overall metro weakness. Its more the raw numbers has no context in terms of where the changes or occurring or why.

The other thing Is I wonder if there was a "Ferguson effect" in relation to some numbers causing changes in places. And to whether that's a short term thing or will create a longer term trend. Another trend to watch here and nationally is if there is "Trump effect" in people moving from overseas.

We are seeing reduced units but I feel like the amount of infill is decent enough to offset some of it. The problem is I have nothing to reference north city as I'm rarely up there but central/south city has seen consistent infill along with numerous apartment developments. The last time these counts were off was because the city was fighting the estimates which caused the big negative swing. City really should start focusing on north city. Start from the northern side of the central corridor and work its way from there

mjbais1489 · PostMar 24, 2017#3772017-03-24T16:50+00:00

So a comprehensive city-wide development plan considering streets department, Bike & Ped department, Transit department? We have one from 2005 that I have no idea if its been updated. Seems like it should have been after 2008 for sure.

https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/d ... 016_50.pdf
https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/d ... ment__.pdf

My largest problem with current development is its very hard to go from neighborhood to neighborhood. Arterial streets (Jefferson, grand, Vandevetter, Natural bridge Gravois) are way too ugly/large/ far too many bad intersections to allow easy spill over between neighberhoods.

Who plans for the city wide street problems? Is my understanding that the streets department gives all its money to alderperson funds and do what the alderperson requests correct? Seems like the streets department should be in charge of most money so we can make large (multi ward) decisions like doing a road diet to vandvetter for example. The Skinker/64/Forest Park intersection thing really brought up a great example of the problems with current funding structure.

STLrainbow · PostMar 24, 2017#3782017-03-24T17:21+00:00

^^ seems pretty clear the north is continuing to decline at a rapid pace --hopefully not as great as last decade but there's no reason for optimism. For South City, things are mixed... besides the general societal trend of smaller family units, one of the big issues for South City is the difficulty in adding new units in the stable areas as they are largely built out and units occupied. Some apartment units are being carved out from relatively small adaptive re-use projects such as formerly vacant schools, etc. but larger new construction projects like the 116 unit proposal for the Pelican Building site are pretty few and far between. Other areas of South City are struggling to get by and probably are seeing an increase in vacancy.

Also, citywide, I think its important to note that we've yet to break 100 new infill home permits in any year since the recession; the potential is huge in the long term with thousands of vacant residential parcels available but we're just not adding a lot of people through single-family production yet.

And finally, I'd say that just as important, if not more important, than what's going on in the "hot" areas is what is going on in places like Bevo and Dutchtown on the southside and Baden and Penrose on the northside... large neighborhoods where any significant loss could easily negate gains elsewhere.

hiddeninput · PostMar 24, 2017#3792017-03-24T19:13+00:00

I think we also need to be careful not to confuse development with growth. New apartments coming online, for example, are just as capable as pulling people from older apartments in the city as they are at attracting new people into the city.

St.Louis1764 · PostMar 25, 2017#3802017-03-25T03:36+00:00

Why does the city nor the region have an aggressive master plan or vision plan on growth? There should be some goal implemented as achievable for the city and region like if i were mayor i'd lay out a plan on knowing as North St.Louis continues to hallow out to look at potential areas where growth will be the best and greatest to flourish until we can get North St.Louis prepped for growth. Set a population increase thats an achievable level lets say between 325,000-335,000 by 2025-30 and the collaborating leaders of the region should set the goal of growth population to 3.5. I know the cards are stacked against us as most people seem to loath St.Louis or paint St.Louis as this very negative place where theres no development.. I know that AA's and Caucasians can work together here and live together there has to be that medium where people aren't always going to agree on everything however for example the Metro Link isn't just a city form of transportation its a regional form of transportation it may only serve St.Louis county and City however i would think majority of people who reside in the region has taken it? Anyways I'm curious the fragmentation alone St.Louis could be far off much worse, the city and regional leaders need to really collaborate on which direction they want to take the entire region a direction of negative or a direction of positive..
Also i wish people would learn how to embrace the city instead of bashing it all of this didnt occur over night i could careless where you live to me if you live within the region then you're a St.Louisan.

earthling · PostMar 29, 2017#3812017-03-29T03:51+00:00

Found 2016 migration stats here for all metros...
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

St. Louis metro had its biggest domestic loss ever since tracked, 11.5K in 2016 compared to 7K-10K domestic loss last several years. History of stats..
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL

KC metro had a decent (for KC) jump in net domestic migration last year of about 6600, the most since late 90s. History of stats...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... y%2C_MO-KS

PostMar 29, 2017#3822017-03-29T03:53+00:00

Critical_Mass posted this on KC Rag...
Lincoln, NE Metro Area = 326,921 (+4,094 since 7/1/2015, +24,764 since 2010 census)
Springfield, MO Metro Area = 458,930 (+2,602 since 7/1/2015, +22,218 since 2010 census)
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA Metro Area = 634,725 (+12,145 since 7/1/2015, +65,092 since 2010 census)
Wichita, KS Metro Area = 644,672 (+1,656 since 7/1/2015, +13,753 since 2010 census)
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA Metro Area = 924,129 (+9,861 since 7/1/2015, +58,779 since 2010 census)
Tulsa, OK Metro Area = 987,201 (+6,742 since 7/1/2015, +49,723 since 2010 census)
Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metro Area = 1,342,842 (+888 since 7/1/2015, +18,013 since 2010 census)
Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area = 1,373,211 (+16,246 since 7/1/2015, +120,224 since 2010 census)
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN Metro Area = 1,865,298 (+36,337 since 7/1/2015, +194,408 since 2010 census)
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN Metro Area = 2,004,230 (+17,688 since 7/1/2015, +116,353 since 2010 census)
Austin-Round Rock, TX Metro Area = 2,056,405 (+58,301 since 7/1/2015, +340,116 since 2010 census)
Kansas City, MO-KS Metro Area = 2,104,509 (+20,045 since 7/1/2015, +95,167 since 2010 census)
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area = 2,165,139 (+9,747 since 7/1/2015, +50,559 since 2010 census)
St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area = 2,807,002 (-1,328 since 7/1/2015, +19,301 since 2010 census)
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO Metro Area = 2,853,077 (+44,261 since 7/1/2015, +309,595 since 2010 census)

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2016 ... areas.html

PostMar 29, 2017#3832017-03-29T04:05+00:00

Posted by Critical_Mass on KC Rag...

St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area = 2,807,002 (-1,328 since 7/1/2015, +19,301 since 2010 census)
St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL CSA = 2,911,769 (-1,385 since 7/1/2015, +19,272 since 2010 census)
St. Louis County = 998,581 (-3,124 since 7/1/2015, -373 since 2010 census)
St. Charles County = 390,918 (+5,747 since 7/1/2015, +30,433 since 2010 census)
St. Louis City = 311,404 (-3,471 since 7/1/2015, -7,890 since 2010 census)
Madison County = 265,759 (-312 since 7/1/2015, -3,523 since 2010 census)
St. Clair County = 262,759 (-1,320 since 7/1/2015, -7,297 since 2010 census)
Jefferson County = 224,226 (+318 since 7/1/2015, +5,493 since 2010 census)
Franklin County = 102,838 (+456 since 7/1/2015, +1,346 since 2010 census)
MO side = 2,117,036 (+775 since 7/1/2015, +32,999 since 2010 census)
IL side = 689,966 (-2,103 since 7/1/2015, -13,698 since 2010 census)

Kansas City, MO-KS Metro Area = 2,104,509 (+20,045 since 7/1/2015, +95,167 since 2010 census)
Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS CSA = 2,446,396 (+21,467 since 7/1/2015, +103,388 since 2010 census)
Jackson County = 691,801 (+5,428 since 7/1/2015, +17,643 since 2010 census)
Johnson County = 584,451 (+5,693 since 7/1/2015, +40,272 since 2010 census)
Clay County = 239,085 (+3,614 since 7/1/2015, +17,146 since 2010 census)
Wyandotte County = 163,831 (+736 since 7/1/2015, +6,326 since 2010 census)
Cass County = 102,845 (+1,349 since 7/1/2015, +3,367 since 2010 census)
Platte County = 98,309 (+2,092 since 7/1/2015, +8,987 since 2010 census)
MO side = 1,233,501 (+12,385 since 7/1/2015, +44,513 since 2010 census)
KS side = 871,008 (+7,660 since 7/1/2015, +50,654 since 2010 census)

county data can be found here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2016 ... total.html

Chalupas54 · PostMar 29, 2017#3842017-03-29T13:23+00:00

Regional leaders need to do more to attract new residents to the St Louis area. How we go about this is what perplexes me.

PostMar 29, 2017#3852017-03-29T13:29+00:00

Actually if I'm not mistaken, wasn't the St Louis MSA marked as losing population several years back, only to be revised later in the year?

earthling · PostMar 29, 2017#3862017-03-29T22:57+00:00

Well it looks like the STL metro losses for 2016 were on the IL side at least.

St.Louis1764 · PostMar 30, 2017#3872017-03-30T02:00+00:00

Region can't grow when Illinois and North St.Louis continue to be a black eyes theres so much room for growth its all within a matter of time St.Louis and the region will begin to see its fair share of growth while other regions begin to stagnate..
What does Kansas City region have over the St.Louis region???
If you're telling me Kansas and Missouri rivers well we have Missouri and Mississippi Meramec Rivers foot hill of the Ozark.
If you're telling me BBQ i think St.Louis BBQ can hang with the best its just not as nationally acclaimed.
Give me our Forest Park and Zoo Central West End
Kansas Cities downtown gets the nod but not by much I'll take the Gateway Arch any day over the power and light district and the plaza
Theres a lot of room for improvement however i see a lot of progress and growth in Downtown St.Louis even with a no vote on the potential soccer stadium.
Yes i get our crime is sky high which is no excuse, can progress be made in that area!
Either way I'm not bashing Kansas City cause i find it to be a fun place to check out however in my opinion i find St.Louis to be more appealing specially with the neighborhood architecture which is the best in entire state in my opinion.
Again i hope city leaders begin to focus on significant investment in North St.Louis thats the key for the city to begin seeing population growth.
Believe it or not North St.Louis is the cities biggest under served under valued over neglected asset, promote it preserve it.

Chalupas54 · PostMar 30, 2017#3882017-03-30T04:10+00:00

St.Louis1764 wrote: ↑
Mar 30, 2017
Region can't grow when Illinois and North St.Louis continue to be a black eyes theres so much room for growth its all within a matter of time St.Louis and the region will begin to see its fair share of growth while other regions begin to stagnate..
What does Kansas City region have over the St.Louis region???
If you're telling me Kansas and Missouri rivers well we have Missouri and Mississippi Meramec Rivers foot hill of the Ozark.
If you're telling me BBQ i think St.Louis BBQ can hang with the best its just not as nationally acclaimed.
Give me our Forest Park and Zoo Central West End
Kansas Cities downtown gets the nod but not by much I'll take the Gateway Arch any day over the power and light district and the plaza
Theres a lot of room for improvement however i see a lot of progress and growth in Downtown St.Louis even with a no vote on the potential soccer stadium.
Yes i get our crime is sky high which is no excuse, can progress be made in that area!
Either way I'm not bashing Kansas City cause i find it to be a fun place to check out however in my opinion i find St.Louis to be more appealing specially with the neighborhood architecture which is the best in entire state in my opinion.
Again i hope city leaders begin to focus on significant investment in North St.Louis thats the key for the city to begin seeing population growth.
Believe it or not North St.Louis is the cities biggest under served under valued over neglected asset, promote it preserve it.

I really agree with a lot you have to say. Where St Louis struggles is more so in terms of economic growth. We've always been slow growth. We have potential, we just need a leader to really capitalize on it.

bwcrow1s · PostMar 30, 2017#3892017-03-30T13:15+00:00

+30,000 to St. Charles since 2010? Jesus.

So are we just shifting population around the metro area for the most part at this point?

We really need to get schools and crime under control.

STLrainbow · PostMar 30, 2017#3902017-03-30T16:15+00:00

Something I don't think has been noted yet is that while it is far from universal, the population trend for people living in core counties slowed down quite a bit overall last year... it will be interesting to see if this is a blip or has some permanence. But even if it is a meaningful trend on a nation-wide basis, the socio-economic and demographic reasons behind that may still benefit places like Saint Louis and Detroit that are still comparatively affordable for the young and "middle class" compared to the Bostons and Seattles of the world.

urban_dilettante · PostMar 30, 2017#3912017-03-30T21:07+00:00

crime and the perception of crime is the #1 problem. in addition, i really think that migration trends are driven by hype. KC has the hype right now and STL can't seem to get out from under its reputation (which is constructed and maintained in large part by hype-driven media like Buzzfeed) despite having, IMO, better amenities than KC.

STLrainbow · PostMar 30, 2017#3922017-03-30T23:09+00:00

^ when you say crime is the # issue, do you mean just locally or in reference to my comment above yours about national trends? I do believe crime is a significant factor here for living in the core but not so much for say Boston, where growth has slowed in the census estimates last year but I think more for increasingly expensive cost of living, etc. than crime.

urban_dilettante · PostMar 31, 2017#3932017-03-31T18:06+00:00

^ i meant locally. for example, other than crime there's no reason that neighborhoods like Gravois Park and Dutchtown--with blocks and blocks of dense, intact, historic housing--are not seeing more investment.

i should also clarify: i don't mean that hype is the #1 driver of migration. jobs and--to an extent--geography play a bigger role than internet listicles.

but when it comes to STL vs KC or STL vs Pittsburgh, for example, i think hype is often the deciding factor for someone choosing between one place or the other.

earthling · PostMar 31, 2017#3942017-03-31T19:06+00:00

KC metro did get some recent hype but the growth rate last several years has not been on par with other past years...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... y%2C_MO-KS

Domestic migration in 2016 increased to net 6600+ for KC, which is the top end of historical migration, but nothing spectacular.

STL metro has had negative net domestic migration for a while but did peak in 2016 (well since the 70s) to over 11K out domestic migration. Gotta wonder if Ferguson effect was in play for the bump of outmigration. And STL generally not considered as welcoming to outsiders as KC, which could be a factor. In KC, outsiders are generally given respect by default until doing something to lose it. In STL, outsiders may not get any respect until doing something to earn it. Same can maybe be said for Chicago and Boston (also high outmigration) but add Fergus effect and perhaps the reason for a bump in outmigration. Too many factors to speculate like that I suppose.

Looking at history, death rates are about the same while birth rates are in decline, implying that it's breeders who are leaving STL...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL

2016 migration...
https://www.census.gov/glossary/#term_Netmigration

beer city · PostMar 31, 2017#3952017-03-31T19:17+00:00

Growing faster than St. Louis seems to be a point of personal pride in KC -its the headline for the Star -

Of course I would wager that urban KC (the historic city south of the river) is probably losing people - not at the rate that of StL, and masked by rapid growth in suburban annexed areas

http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/ar ... 41529.html

This is a yearly estimate - which in the past have shown a wide degree of accuracy - though I don't think St. Louis metro is growing fast, I don't think its losing population either - For instance in 2009 the estimate showed a loss for the county - 2010 hard census actually had modest growth

The only true measure will be the 10 year census

That being said - North city is probably still hemorrhaging, the central corridor is probably still growing, and i would bet that losses on the south side have slowed to a trickle - if not neutral

earthling · PostMar 31, 2017#3962017-03-31T19:31+00:00

South of River in KC has been improving. Downtown KC is growing fairly rapidly, now about 25K from under 10K 15 years ago if I recall and should hit about 30K after the active residential construction completes within 3 years with more likely coming. But the E side is still bleeding (like N STL) and Midtown is just now starting to level off. Midtown/Westport KC though went from mostly families to more singles so not a big vacancy change, just a population change and now it's starting to get development and infill. Plaza outskirts is just getting oldish scrappy buildings replaced by new, not necessarily a population boost. South KC will probably get a boost from the massive Cerner campus, which unfortunately didn't go downtown.

The traditional rust belt/manufacturing cities all have same issues, it's not just STL. If you look at jobs, STL has been growing jobs lately but it's just recently above level of 10 years ago, about a 40K increase...
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU2941 ... raphs=true

KC has grown jobs considerably more than 10 years ago, about 86K increase...
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU2928 ... raphs=true

Ebsy · PostMar 31, 2017#3972017-03-31T19:39+00:00

Probably not worth getting too worked up over. These estimates have been known to be wildly off before and are often revised. Of course, that means things could be worse than the Census is saying, but I'd rather no consider that possibility.

imperialmog · PostMar 31, 2017#3982017-03-31T19:44+00:00

I keep thinking about how much different numbers would look if it wasn't for the overall weakness that has occurred this decade in the Metro East counties.

Also wouldn't population in North City have to start decreasing by smaller numbers soon for no other reason than less people to move away? Since I think city numbers would start looking different as a result if everything else is the same. Another thing to consider is due to various factors it wouldn't be surprising if metro area trends and broad national trends in patterns start changing in next decade or so due to social upheaval and generational turn. Longer term impacts like water resource issues and housing costs could play a role as well that can inhibit growth in many areas and kickstart growth in areas with cheaper housing and plenty of water.

earthling · PostMar 31, 2017#3992017-03-31T19:47+00:00

The domestic net migration stats are fairly solid as they are based on taxes filed. The numbers probably have a small % of error and the trends are probably even more accurate, at least as indicators of direction.

Chalupas54 · PostMar 31, 2017#4002017-03-31T20:27+00:00

earthling wrote: ↑
Mar 31, 2017
The domestic net migration stats are fairly solid as they are based on taxes filed. The numbers probably have a small % of error and the trends are probably even more accurate, at least as indicators of direction.

Not entirely. I recently corresponded with the STLRC to see if they had any change or response to recent numbers, and their response was pretty much 'we have no evidence that indicates the St Louis metro lost population'. In fact, they expressed that they had seen indications that the region grew in population, yet did not cite what those were. Either way, if St Louis is bleeding population, this is a problem for the State of Missouri, as not only is St Louis the most prominent city, it's also the largest tax base.

2020 Census

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