Roger, I think that is a pretty fair assessment of what to expect. However, it will be interesting with things stabilizing and maybe getting around the corner if

Jobs happen?

1) With St. Louis in a midst of a mini tech boom, will it a land a major employer either it be Google or another Financial Firm?
2) Will CORTEX become the bio research hub that it is starting take shape?
3) Will we see Dansforth center attract even more plant science people and companies that will make St. Louis a world leader.

I see a lot that happening. Where will St. Louis miss out, without a decent incentive program I think logistics will continue to play a minor role and Missouri is not even in the ball game of attracting big manufacturing facilities. Unfortunately, I think will lead to a slow revitalization around Lambert, North Riverfront and sadly Fenton might be hosting a football stadium in a location that once had thousands of great auto jobs.

Infrastructure? I think your right on Roger as the highway build out is slowing down with Page Ave extension on its last leg, Hwy 141 had its big build out with stimulus and MRB will add more then enough river crossing lanes. What will happen next?

1) City will get its new 22nd street interchange back along with West Downtown street grid, no question in mind. Will it get a at grade Grand and Forest Park Parkway intersection, no doubt
2) The big questions for the city, Will the raised section of downtown I-70 come down? Will the streetcar be under construction? Both will be huge to continue the city momentum.
3) The county is a crap shoot, none of what is out there as it is currently envisioned moves it forward in my opinion from the South Connector to the Daniel Boone/Westport Line. It will continue to try to make Hwy 141 into a full scale freeway with more improvements planned.

What big opportunity will be missed in my mind the next few years? Lambert Airport needs to see Concourse D go, as well as a number of underutilized facilities from the AA maintenance and National Guard Hangers. What needs to happen, a Consolidated rental car facility where D is, new international gates (not many, but new gates!!) and extend metrolink through with new airport stations.

I've been looking at the 2012 census data a little bit. The declines in St. Louis are moderating, but still around 400-500 people a year.

Of the 144 cities in population between 150,000 and 750,000, only 12 lost population from 2010->2012. Over 90% of cities are showing population growth.

There are 5 cities in the 150-750k group that shrunk at a faster rate than St. Louis: Detroit city, Michigan, Cleveland city, Ohio, Toledo city, Ohio, Buffalo city, New York, Rockford city, Illinois.

The good news is that cities overall are growing, reflecting a national trend of urban renewal (in fact, I believe they are growing faster than the suburbs now).

The bad news is that St. Louis is very near the bottom. 95% of cities are doing better than STL, and the entire region is growing sluggishly.

I think it's a reasonable assessment. And dredger I hope you're right with your infrastructure expectations. I'd be happy and a bit surprised to see more than one or maybe two of those city projects happen. Steve, thanks for the analysis. In context stagnation looks a lot worse than it does on its face.

roger wyoming II wrote:But what I do hope to see is that as a region we are beginning to make better choices.

I agree that the region and MOBOT need to make smarter infrastructure investment choices, but I think people are starting to "make better choices" regardless of the flow of funding. I see the central corridor continuing to add density, from downtown to Clayton. I believe there will be a noticeable Whole Foods effect in the CWE, and that investments in Midtown will continue to spur population growth, Downtown will show strong gains. I think the continued investments in the East Loop, and stabilizing effect of Metrolink will cause Skinker-Debaliviere and West End neighborhoods to turn the corner to modest population growth. It would be particularly exciting to see West End grow, since it would represent a rare instance of northside gains. I also think Soulard, Lafayette Sq., and ONSL will put in modest growth, both on their own intrinsic attractiveness and their proximity to DT.

A streetcar would accelerate this trend, but I think it could hold strong even without it. A Southside Metrolink, Streetcar, or Grand BRT, could help some near southside neighborhoods turn the corner to small gains in population (mainly Benton Park, Fox Park, Shaw, TGS, & TGE) depending on where the line went. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening pre-2020.

Perhaps counterintuitively, if Metrolink is extended along the Daniel Boone alignment to Maryland Heights, I see it boosting population more in the Central corridor and downtown than in Maryland Heights. Based on STL's terrible track record with TOD, I think it would make living near the more urban stations that much more attractive, while not necessarily significantly increasing residential demand along Olive, Dielman, N Warson, Lindbergh, etc...

^ Good spot.

What's in the suburbs? Nothing.

EW Gateway muni population change 2010-2012. So many munis! St Louis County is back above 1 million. Note the 90 munis combined lost pop and the unincorporated areas made all the difference. St. Charles County continues to out pace.

http://blog.ewgateway.org/wp-content/up ... -00-12.pdf

Interesting that Jennings, Wellston, and Kinloch experienced population growth.

Juiceinkirkwood: Kirkwood is great for a bunch of reasons, but I think "inner ring" is a bit of a stretch for a township that borders Fenton and has 270 running through it.

juiceinkirkwood wrote:

Gateway City wrote:What's in the suburbs? Nothing.

In many places - good schools, all necessary amenities, low crime rates. Don't get a truth-ache. I think the city is making great strides and I hope and pray that it continues to do so, but as of now, that's what the suburbs have that some may argue that city can't compare to.

I live in Kirkwood, which is rarely picked on at NextSTL for good reason (great schools + inner ring + great downtown). I'll take half the house in Kirkwood over twice the house in Chesterfield any day of the week!

I'm with Juiceinkirkwood, their is reasons why St. Charles county outpaces to more than a few people. Simply put, demographics matter and what those demographics want. A household of single young people and/or empty nesters is nice and carrying the central corridor from downtown to Forest Park big time. But, individuals into their 40's are most likely to be at the highest in their earning potential, most likely to have a household of multiple heads (think kids that fill schools and parks) and most likely afford a life of convenience, think SUV and restaraunts. A demographic that describles me to a tee, except I traded in my 4x4 pickup for a minivan with kid #2.

St. Louis City needs to continue to focus on schools as well as providing choice of schools (an advantage in my opinion), transportation and safety in addition to economic development, rehabbed its extesnive housing stock and moving parks and urban infrastrucctured forward. Its a tall order considering that south city and county hold onto to that demographic is tenouos and a lot of that demographic who could afford it left north city altogether.

To state that suburbs offer nothing is denial to the hard task of growing the urban cores population.

^ Pittsburgh is not larger or denser than St. Louis. Healthier is also debatable too. My fiance is from Pittsburgh and just visited St. Louis for the first time not too long ago and said St. Louis felt both larger and more vibrant. I really wish people would stop drinking the proverbial "Pittsburgh is the rust belt model city" kool-aid. Pittsburgh is still in free fall at the metro level also. I will say they have better marketing and progressive strategies though, but that's mostly out of being in a more desperate situation. As of 2010 it is a city of 307,000 people. St. Louis is 318,000 people as of 2010. Pittsburgh is barely denser.

^ merely going by residential population density as stated at wiki. And it's that data point that I meant by "healthier". Certainly there are many cities that have lower density than we do but would be considered "healthier" in other metrics.

"Stretching so far that you're more like a centerless mass." Could be used to describe a lot of much larger cities: Phoenix, Los Angeles, Houston.... But I don't think it applies to STL.