I'm not so convinced on South Saint Louis stability... some of these neighborhoods have many challenges despite great potential. I agree rapid transit would help out tremendously, but just fear stagnation at best and more deterioration at worst in some of these neighborhoods without such investments.Gateway City wrote:I think most of our loss from this point forward will be from North City. South City's loss is at a trickle, and I'm sure that from 2020-2030, it will be growing like the Central Corridor is today. If we can get a N-S MetroLink or even a streetcar, it will create a secondary Central Corridor, which could grow tons as well. MetroLink really is the spine of the City.
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I think west of Jefferson will improve a lot by then. It's the other parts I do worry about.
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South City will have the greatest population loss in the next census. Very unstable hoods south of Gravois.
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^ After the results of the last census, I have no idea of what to make of South Side. I'd be astonished if nabes like Shaw and TGS see the large loss like last time (17 and 10% loss, respectively) and I wouldn't doubt that a number actually grow. But you're right, places like Dutchtown, Gravois Park and Bevo Mill are just some of the South Side nabes facing some pretty serious challenges.
The window of opportunity for the city cashing in on the large Echo Boom generation isn't open forever, but it is nice to know that millions of new households will be forming over the course of the next 10 years or so.
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 433b2.html
Of course many of them will choose the suburbs but I think its a good bet that a preference for urban living will remain. Fears that Saint Louis may be building too many apartments seem misplaced and counter-productive. (Although having an affordable supply is always an issue.)
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 433b2.html
Of course many of them will choose the suburbs but I think its a good bet that a preference for urban living will remain. Fears that Saint Louis may be building too many apartments seem misplaced and counter-productive. (Although having an affordable supply is always an issue.)
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Even just being around buildings, whether new construction or rehabbed historic homes, is nicer to live near than vacant lots and parking lots. Even if nobody lives in the buildings, they're still better to be around just because they're buildings that are in good shape. Hopefully then people will be more interested in living in that area, thereby encouraging more people to move there as well, and eventually those empty buildings won't be empty anymore. A friend of mine was talking to me as I drove through the city about how she'd like to move there, but may not just because she doesn't want to be around all the blight. Negative energy or whatever those hipsters blab on about, I don't know.roger wyoming II wrote:The window of opportunity for the city cashing in on the large Echo Boom generation isn't open forever, but it is nice to know that millions of new households will be forming over the course of the next 10 years or so.
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 433b2.html
Of course many of them will choose the suburbs but I think its a good bet that a preference for urban living will remain. Fears that Saint Louis may be building too many apartments seem misplaced and counter-productive. (Although having an affordable supply is always an issue.)
The census yesterday released their population estimates for racial demographics by county for 2013, and while I am skeptical of census estimates' reliability, they show a very sharp decline in blacks in STL city (falling form 157,895 to 152, 465) with a surprising increase in non-hispanic whites from 135,041 to 138,400. My guess is that the black population decline has more to do with the continuing hollowing out of the northside than gentrification but I can't be sure.
The stats are here: https://www.census.gov/popest/data/coun ... index.html
The stats are here: https://www.census.gov/popest/data/coun ... index.html
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^ thanks for posting.
If the estimates are on the right track, it indeed looks like the black outmigration continues almost unabated.... looks like around a 3% drop over the three years so about a 10% drop if the estimate held for a decade. Both St. Louis and St. Charles counties saw growth in black population. Also, if Saint Louis City is indeed staunching its losses, I'm not really surprised by the estimated growth in white population.
This release also seems to confirm what the Mosaic project report on immigration stated, that it looks like the County in particular is seeing some decent growth in Asian population. Hopefully we can see even higher growth throughout the region.
I'm still fascinated to see how an improved housing market might change patterns.... on the one hand I think we have a big Echo Boom generation that will be getting out of their parents homes and forming their own households in the coming years, which can bode very well for the city, while on the other hand there may be a pent up demand for young families currently in the city seeking to move to the burbs. On the whole, though, I think things are looking up for the city.
If the estimates are on the right track, it indeed looks like the black outmigration continues almost unabated.... looks like around a 3% drop over the three years so about a 10% drop if the estimate held for a decade. Both St. Louis and St. Charles counties saw growth in black population. Also, if Saint Louis City is indeed staunching its losses, I'm not really surprised by the estimated growth in white population.
This release also seems to confirm what the Mosaic project report on immigration stated, that it looks like the County in particular is seeing some decent growth in Asian population. Hopefully we can see even higher growth throughout the region.
I'm still fascinated to see how an improved housing market might change patterns.... on the one hand I think we have a big Echo Boom generation that will be getting out of their parents homes and forming their own households in the coming years, which can bode very well for the city, while on the other hand there may be a pent up demand for young families currently in the city seeking to move to the burbs. On the whole, though, I think things are looking up for the city.
Apparently home sales are doing better in Saint Louis City the County, where there has been a significant slowdown that seems to be more than just a tough winter.
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 06418.html
The city of St. Louis, St. Charles County and Monroe County all saw small sales gains in May, although those gains were outweighed by declines elsewhere.
We'll see how things proceed, but again an encouraging sign that city apartments are booming and single-family is holding its own in the City. County increasingly could be a hell hole as people flee for the City or Saint Chuck's!
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 06418.html
The city of St. Louis, St. Charles County and Monroe County all saw small sales gains in May, although those gains were outweighed by declines elsewhere.
We'll see how things proceed, but again an encouraging sign that city apartments are booming and single-family is holding its own in the City. County increasingly could be a hell hole as people flee for the City or Saint Chuck's!
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The school numbers continue to suggest slight population growth. An article in today's Post-Dispatch documented an increase in total enrollment since 2008.
As long as the growth is in middle and higher income households, awesome.
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This is a bit of nice news. I hope things completely stabilize in the City specially with it passing it's first ever 1 Billion $ budget.
Things are slowly looking up. The sour spot is North Saint.Louis losing population but i can understand why.
Maybe that area will stabilize someday as well...
Things are slowly looking up. The sour spot is North Saint.Louis losing population but i can understand why.
Maybe that area will stabilize someday as well...
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That indeed is encouraging, although a caveat is that there is a substantially higher pre-school enrollment than in 2008. Speaking of younglings, Stix ECC Magnet will be having a gifted Kindergarten class beginning this year. My understanding is that those kids automatically will be able to enroll at Kennard at 3rd Grade. Not sure if its peer school, Wilkinson ECC, will have the same situation. I encourage parents to apply for Stix and Wilkinson, feel free to PM if you want more insight.Presbyterian wrote:The school numbers continue to suggest slight population growth. An article in today's Post-Dispatch documented an increase in total enrollment since 2008.
Completely unofficial, but this seems like some pretty good news from United Van Lines on inbound moves....
http://www.stltoday.com/business/column ... cd75e.html
Saint Louis ranked 5th among major cities on inbound v. outbound moves and "The company noted "high volumes of millennial moves to cities such as Chicago, St. Louis and Minneapolis."
http://www.stltoday.com/business/column ... cd75e.html
Saint Louis ranked 5th among major cities on inbound v. outbound moves and "The company noted "high volumes of millennial moves to cities such as Chicago, St. Louis and Minneapolis."
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a white majority in the city in the next census. I want to see more Asians and Hispanics in the city. A fully equally balanced city, racially, would be awesome.
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I think we will see a white majority. Blacks have become more suburban in their lifestyle habits. Young whites and even empty nesters are moving back to the city. And I agree we need more Asians.
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ill rain on the parade i guess....I see the City below 300k or right at it on 2020. while under 30 people are moving in...they are mostly 1 or 2 per household, families of 3-4 are still moving out...example; i bought a house last year from a family of 4 that moved out to South County...so its a 1 for 4 trade off.
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^ yes and no..... you are looking at just a snapshot in time. Although I'd need to know more facts about you, presumably you are a young person of some attraction to an S.O. that might settle down with you and have a family. In 2020, you may be the family of 4 that may leave later in the next decade! As presby noted above, we have some positive indicators with overall enrollment in schools (both public and private) on the rise so we may be doing a better job of retaining families as a whole.
My personal belief is that the census will be estimating we are gaining people within a few years but whether it will be enough to cover losses earlier in the decade is more uncertain.... what happens with the black population is key imo. I'd wager a range anywhere from 3% loss to 3% gain for the decade.
My personal belief is that the census will be estimating we are gaining people within a few years but whether it will be enough to cover losses earlier in the decade is more uncertain.... what happens with the black population is key imo. I'd wager a range anywhere from 3% loss to 3% gain for the decade.
^I agree
But it goes both ways. I bought my house in Southampton from an old lady. My fiance now lives with me. By 2020 we will likely have 1 or 2 kids. So that's a 4 for 1 trade off. We won't be moving out of the city. Same thing happened a couple doors down. An older lady moved out, a young married couple with a child moved in.ill rain on the parade i guess....I see the City below 300k or right at it on 2020. while under 30 people are moving in...they are mostly 1 or 2 per household, families of 3-4 are still moving out...example; i bought a house last year from a family of 4 that moved out to South County...so its a 1 for 4 trade off.
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hey neighbor, im on lansdownepat wrote:^I agree
But it goes both ways. I bought my house in Southampton from an old lady. My fiance now lives with me. By 2020 we will likely have 1 or 2 kids. So that's a 4 for 1 trade off. We won't be moving out of the city. Same thing happened a couple doors down. An older lady moved out, a young married couple with a child moved in.ill rain on the parade i guess....I see the City below 300k or right at it on 2020. while under 30 people are moving in...they are mostly 1 or 2 per household, families of 3-4 are still moving out...example; i bought a house last year from a family of 4 that moved out to South County...so its a 1 for 4 trade off.
I bought the house at 27, 28 now...my goal is to be married by 35 and kids are a 50/50 right now...I do have a gf that i did get to move from Maryland Heights to the city. my attraction to the city is that i grew up here and even after i went to college in Springfield and lived in Jeff City for a few years after for work, i still knew i would end up back here for good. I do know at least 3 other couples that grew up in west county and now own houses in south hampton and all have 1 years olds i guess in 5-6 years we will find out if they will stick around, i know i will.roger wyoming II wrote:^ yes and no..... you are looking at just a snapshot in time. Although I'd need to know more facts about you, presumably you are a young person of some attraction to an S.O. that might settle down with you and have a family. In 2020, you may be the family of 4 that may leave later in the next decade!
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Chicago could use some more Asians, but it is very well-balanced... almost right up there with NYC. I'd like to see both our Asian and Hispanic populations at least double for the 2020 census, which I believe would be about 6% Asian and 7% Hispanic.... that could really begin to implode our black-white stasis. I am concerned about our steady loss of black population and it will be interesting to see how the NoCo challenges impact things.... e.g. with school systems like Normandy performing terribly and others not much better than STL public and charters, there may be less impetus to move.jcity wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a white majority in the city in the next census. I want to see more Asians and Hispanics in the city. A fully equally balanced city, racially, would be awesome.
^^ sounds good!
I am concerned about our steady loss of black population
Why - aside from perception of population loss? The city's black population has a bad income distribution, and since we know concentrated poverty is something to avoid/reduce, if a large part of that population spreads out in the region rather than remaining concentrated in current neighborhoods, isn't that deconcentrating poverty, and therefore net good?
That assumes those leaving STL aren't simply moving en masse to a handful of locations and tipping poverty in those small areas past 20% (the point at which poverty concentration becomes malignant), but are truly spreading out in the metro. And that STL keeps the middle and upper income blacks while shedding low income blacks.
If the black population had the same income distribution as the region's white population, then what you said would make sense - as it would be about preserving a healthy income mix - but with the black population being disproportionately poor, then it is not desireable for the black population to remain concentrated, as the outcome of poverty concentration is well documented.
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Increased millennials means larger dating pool!!
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but seriously. I hope the city can build nice and affordable options so we can keep these people from moving next door to their parents
but seriously. I hope the city can build nice and affordable options so we can keep these people from moving next door to their parents