^^ If the fortunes of blacks leaving areas of higher poverty measurably improve and the city/region has the resources to address the needs of the areas being left behind then movement is likely a good thing overall; unfortunately, I think there is evidence to suggest that for the most part we aren't the type of region where this is happening. Instead, we're largely seeing even further disinvestment in the core neighborhoods and questionable progress for those leaving for what they hoped were greener pastures. Further, even poorer neighborhoods have value and the goal should be to keep them from getting to the point where people feel the need to leave their established communities.
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i once broke up with a girl because she lived in Chesterfield....i had a rule that i only date inside I-270bigmclargehuge wrote:Increased millennials means larger dating pool!!
but seriously. I hope the city can build nice and affordable options so we can keep these people from moving next door to their parents
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Damn good rule right there. Add the 1/2 plus 7 rule and your set!dbInSouthCity wrote:i once broke up with a girl because she lived in Chesterfield....i had a rule that i only date inside I-270
We did the same and added two kids. +3. If my wife gets her way it will be + 4. There are several 20s-30s couples in our neighborhood doing the same. I love it and wouldn't raise our kids anywhere but the city as long as we stay in St Louis. I have some concerns about the cost of high school, but I have 12 years to convince everyone to pull their kids from private school and send them to public instantly making SLPS will be one of the best public school systems in the state...pat wrote:^I agree
But it goes both ways. I bought my house in Southampton from an old lady. My fiance now lives with me. By 2020 we will likely have 1 or 2 kids. So that's a 4 for 1 trade off. We won't be moving out of the city. Same thing happened a couple doors down. An older lady moved out, a young married couple with a child moved in.ill rain on the parade i guess....I see the City below 300k or right at it on 2020. while under 30 people are moving in...they are mostly 1 or 2 per household, families of 3-4 are still moving out...example; i bought a house last year from a family of 4 that moved out to South County...so its a 1 for 4 trade off.
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i started doing +/- 3 when i turned 25...so my range now is 25-31bigmclargehuge wrote:Damn good rule right there. Add the 1/2 plus 7 rule and your set!dbInSouthCity wrote:i once broke up with a girl because she lived in Chesterfield....i had a rule that i only date inside I-270
(will make exceptions to +/-5 if they have their act together at the lower end)
I'd like to think disinvestment in N City has bottomed out. I can't imagine what even less investment would look like.Instead, we're largely seeing even further disinvestment in the core neighborhoods and questionable progress for those leaving for what they hoped were greener pastures. Further, even poorer neighborhoods have value and the goal should be to keep them from getting to the point where people feel the need to leave their established communities.
The problem with poorer neighborhoods is that you can call them poorer neighborhoods, because that implies a concentration of poverty, therefore they more than likely have negative value unless they can be repositioned to attract a critical mass of more affluent residents. This sounds like the issue in Dutchtown and Gravois Park, which is by all indications at a critical juncture where it can either begin to gentrify or become another rotting hulk like much of N City - which in many places is well past this point. Dutchtown is where the focus of any poverty mitigation efforts needs to be aimed at the moment.
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A number of North City neighborhoods saw 25%+ declines last decade and see continuing abandonment.... things indeed can deteriorate even further and negatively impact the neighborhoods that have been more stable.onecity wrote: I'd like to think disinvestment in N City has bottomed out. I can't imagine what even less investment would look like.
I have some concerns about the cost of high school, but I have 12 years to convince everyone to pull their kids from private school and send them to public instantly making SLPS will be one of the best public school systems in the state...
I like the way you think!
If you need help persuading them, remind them that low income kids can go to HARVARD for $3k out of pocket per year, on average. Then ask them if their private HS is equivalent to Harvard.
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Here is an interesting article from Dallas Biz Journal on the United Van Lines report; it shows it customers are now moving away from Dallas in greater numbers than moving in:
http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/ ... tting.html
It has to do with an improving national outlook for jobs, he said.
Most of the relocations in the United Van Lines sample are highly educated, high-income workers who are taking new jobs or are following their current company to a new locale, Stoll said.
“During the Great Recession, the only job game in town was predominantly in Texas,” Stoll said. “Now what’s happening is that some of the larger metro areas in the nation — like Chicago, New York and Los Angeles — are starting to pick up economic growth.”
Californians who moved to Texas are moving back or at least thinking twice about leaving the Golden State, he said.
Makes sense and I do seem to notice a fair share of native Saint Louisans returning home as well.... anyways, nice to see us doing well on this list. fwiw, the expert quoted above did believe there was enough of a sample providing a good snapshot of what is going on with trends.
http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/blog/ ... tting.html
It has to do with an improving national outlook for jobs, he said.
Most of the relocations in the United Van Lines sample are highly educated, high-income workers who are taking new jobs or are following their current company to a new locale, Stoll said.
“During the Great Recession, the only job game in town was predominantly in Texas,” Stoll said. “Now what’s happening is that some of the larger metro areas in the nation — like Chicago, New York and Los Angeles — are starting to pick up economic growth.”
Californians who moved to Texas are moving back or at least thinking twice about leaving the Golden State, he said.
Makes sense and I do seem to notice a fair share of native Saint Louisans returning home as well.... anyways, nice to see us doing well on this list. fwiw, the expert quoted above did believe there was enough of a sample providing a good snapshot of what is going on with trends.
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I hope it's a sign of the tides changing & people are actually considering Saint.Louis & the region to make it their home
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^ yup. Playing around with the city's census numbers, if during the course of this decade the city can
1) double the growth in the central corridor
2) cut the loss in the north corridor by half, and
3) have no net gain or loss in the south corridor
we'll be at the same population as 2010, which in itself would be a significant milestone. I think we can actually do better than that in the Central Corridor but I'm not so sure about North and South Corridor performance. Anyway, again I think we'll at least be growing in the second half of the decade but not sure if it will be enough to overcome any losses in the first half.
1) double the growth in the central corridor
2) cut the loss in the north corridor by half, and
3) have no net gain or loss in the south corridor
we'll be at the same population as 2010, which in itself would be a significant milestone. I think we can actually do better than that in the Central Corridor but I'm not so sure about North and South Corridor performance. Anyway, again I think we'll at least be growing in the second half of the decade but not sure if it will be enough to overcome any losses in the first half.
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If crime isn't curbed in the northern portion of the city then there still be the exodus/emptying.. Now for the southern half that's different cause much of it is still in tact & crime isn't as prevalent as the north so i could some considerable growth going on & for the central that area is in a league of it's own.
Believe it or not that IKEA is going to bring a lot of Millennials to Saint.Louis & most will likely stay here for the future.
Although our economy didn't grow much in 13 i believe 14 will show differently.
I feel like the tides are starting to turn for Saint.Louis in a more progressive positive way.
Assuming Ferguson doesn't implode on us..
Ideally i like to see Saint.Louis at a population of 580,000
Believe it or not that IKEA is going to bring a lot of Millennials to Saint.Louis & most will likely stay here for the future.
Although our economy didn't grow much in 13 i believe 14 will show differently.
I feel like the tides are starting to turn for Saint.Louis in a more progressive positive way.
Assuming Ferguson doesn't implode on us..
Ideally i like to see Saint.Louis at a population of 580,000
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We are about 1 of 20 cities with population over 100,000 (nearly 300 total) that did not grow from 2010 Census to 2013 Estimate. 
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^ good news though is that the estimated loss was quite small, averaging just .1% per year. or at a rate of just 1% for the decade.
I'd really love to know how things are shaping up in some attractive neighborhoods that lost population last decade.... places that lost a surprisingly large number of people last decade that I just don't see happening again include:
TGE (-19%)
Shaw (-17%)
Skinky-D (-9.5%)
& TGS (-9.5%)
(Interesting to note the loss in the first three of those nabes was entirely from the black population, and all become majority white by 2010... TGS lost both white and black.) Quite a few others that lost last decade but are now up and coming, like FPSE & McRee Town, should also see either gains or much smaller losses. Anyway, I cand easily see the census estimating we've begun to grow as a whole in 2014.
I'd really love to know how things are shaping up in some attractive neighborhoods that lost population last decade.... places that lost a surprisingly large number of people last decade that I just don't see happening again include:
TGE (-19%)
Shaw (-17%)
Skinky-D (-9.5%)
& TGS (-9.5%)
(Interesting to note the loss in the first three of those nabes was entirely from the black population, and all become majority white by 2010... TGS lost both white and black.) Quite a few others that lost last decade but are now up and coming, like FPSE & McRee Town, should also see either gains or much smaller losses. Anyway, I cand easily see the census estimating we've begun to grow as a whole in 2014.
Do these estimates really mean anything and are they worth discussing?
The main thing I learned from the 2010 census is not to believe the estimates.
The main thing I learned from the 2010 census is not to believe the estimates.
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^ I see I made a major typo in my prior comment... those neighborhood numbers were from the official 2010 census (not last year) and I don't believe we'll be seeing those sorts of declines next time around. Good question about the annual census estimates... last decade wasn't it common for the city to challenge the Census estimates of decline and then they'd make a revision? Anyway, I think they can give a general look at the overall trend which I think is towards stabilization ranging from slight growth to slight continuing decline.
My understanding (someone please correct me if I'm wrong), is that the city would regularly challenge annual census estimates. They'd use voter registrations, homeless shelter statistics, health dept. Statistics, etc... To argue that the number should actually be higher, and the census bureau would usually revise their estimate upward to reflect the city's argument and proffered data. But I believe after the 2010 census Slay said that the city would no longer challenge annual estimates.
So, perhaps the new estimates will be more accurate (or at least more in line with the 2020 census, and less likely to provide a downward surprise), because they aren't being challenged upward by the City.
So, perhaps the new estimates will be more accurate (or at least more in line with the 2020 census, and less likely to provide a downward surprise), because they aren't being challenged upward by the City.
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we are in year 5 of the 2020 Census....time for revised guesstimates? im going with 308,000 in 2020..
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^ Based on its recent estimates and the strong growth in the number of housing permits issued over the past two years, I am going to go out on a limb and say the Bureau will come out with a 2014 estimate within the 0.0 - +0.1% range. I'll go with 319,000 for 2020.
Is there anyway to find the number of housing permits issued ten years ago?
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^ Saint Louis HBA records go back to 2002:
http://www.stlhba.com/newsroom/permits
2014 was the by far the highest since 2005.
http://www.stlhba.com/newsroom/permits
2014 was the by far the highest since 2005.
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I agree, I believe the city has hollowed out. The quicker STL(region) comes to the realization we're not getting the population and jobs back any time soon the better off we'll be. Deindustrialization and the Western part of the country becoming an urban oasis has eliminated those prospects.roger wyoming II wrote:^ Based on its recent estimates and the strong growth in the number of housing permits issued over the past two years, I am going to go out on a limb and say the Bureau will come out with a 2014 estimate within the 0.0 - +0.1% range. I'll go with 319,000 for 2020.
Quality of Life should become our biggest focus, as that will drive some to consider the City.
I'm concerned, because a lot of those rehabs seem to be multi-family conversions to single-family homes. And some parts of the North Side continue to become more vacant.
While some of these rehabs will be increasing property values, luring in higher-income residents, and making neighborhoods look nicer, I'm not sure how much they will be fighting population decline. Some may be adding to it.
We need McKee's project to actually get going I think to really turn things around.
While some of these rehabs will be increasing property values, luring in higher-income residents, and making neighborhoods look nicer, I'm not sure how much they will be fighting population decline. Some may be adding to it.
We need McKee's project to actually get going I think to really turn things around.
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^ The positive news is that while there is some single-family conversion projects going on of previously occupied two or three-family, much has been of unoccupied units. And single family rehab only constitutes a fraction of the overall construction activity. Our multi-family rehab and new construction permits in 2014 dwarfed previous recent years and new home construction also was at its best since the recession. Some of the multi-family occupancy will simply be attracting people who lived elsewhere in the city, but if we have sustained activity at these levels it is nothing but good news.
Getting significant quality housing activity on the north side of course is indeed needed to really work the numbers, but I can see a small loss to small gain if general trends continue.
Getting significant quality housing activity on the north side of course is indeed needed to really work the numbers, but I can see a small loss to small gain if general trends continue.