urbanSTL

These population trends make me sick to my stomach.

Does anybody really know how the demographics in the city are changing by 2020?? My prediction would probably be the city is going lose African Americans at a steady maybe even drop more then 4 percent of the total population. (if the city losses population that is probably why) My next prediction is the non-Hispanic white population will increase by probably .5 to 2 percent of the city population at the most. This would probably be mostly white millennials replacing older people, and maybe some families that left for the suburbs so the non-Hispanic white population will probably show small growth or remain fairly stagnate.
I think Asian and Hispanic( of all races) will show some pretty decent growth I could see both groups reaching near 5 or even over 5 percent of total population attracting these groups of people would probably be key to growing our city's population as opposed to losing or remaining stagnate in population.
Overall I think the income of the cities residents will increase no matter if we gain population or not.
(Everything I written is just my educated guess and would love to hear from more informed people on this topic)

At the rate we are losing people in North City we might be headed towards a plurality white City again.

I think reading population statistic numbers are important however they are a very small part of the story. Even with the slight drop in city population just look at the amount of new residential buildings going up in the central corridor, extremely impressive. STL has also been very highly ranked in many regards such as best start up city, CWE in top US neighborhoods, etc. We can learn from the pop. statistics but I wouldn't just us by them.

roger wyoming II wrote:^ If same changes in race and population occurred this decade as the last one, the 2020 census would show approximately the following...

2020 (2010)
total population 292,792 (319,294)
black alone 47.32 (49.22)
white alone 44.0 (43.93)
asian alone 4.28 (2.91)
hispanic origin 6.03 (3.49)

Racial composition of St. Louis 2010- 2013

white (non Hispanic) 2010 census 42.2percent, 2013 census estimate 45.5 percent

black or African American 2010 census 49.2, percent, 2013 census estimate 45.9 percent

Hispanic (all races) 2010 census 3.5 percent 2013 census estimate 3.7 percent

Asian 2010 census 2.9 percent, 2013 census estimate 3.1 percent

this is my source from under the demographics section http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Louis

I don't think by judging from recent census estimates the 2020 census will mirror the 2010 census I think the current trends are showing St Louis city is becoming more whiter and the same time more diverse do to the increase in Asian and Hispanic population. The shrinking numbers of African Americans is mostly why our city is losing people.

roger wyoming II wrote:^ those wiki estimates seemed a bit fishy and sure enough their table is wrong....

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/29/29510.html

2013 census estimate is:

non-Hispanic white: 43.5%
black or AA alone: 47.9%
Asian alone: 3.1%
Hispanic: 3.7%

I do agree though that 2020 likely will reflect intensifying trends such as an even smaller percentage of blacks and an even greater rise in the Central Corridor population. It certainly seems that white only, including Hispanic origin, will be the plurality by then, I also wonder how the Mosaic Project feels about the 2014 estimates on immigrant growth.

I believe your probably about the estimate results right but even with changing ethnic demographics I don't think the city could past just breaking even in population if African Americas keep leaving the city in seemingly droves

Looks like African American flight to larger more modern housing outside of the city limits is continuing the trend that's been going on for years for all races. As of the 2010 census, the city is no longer majority African American, and that trend is accelerating -- not so much because other races are moving in, but because African Americans are moving out faster. When you look at the demographics of Dallas, Denver, OKC and other Western metros, you see that a huge part of their growth is from increases in the Hispanic population. St. Louis has never had that. If you compare non-hispanic growth among major metros, I'm not sure St. Louis would be that far behind them.

Wasn't sure where to type this. I saw a list of the 15 fastest shrinking cities so here we go.
15. Scranton PA
14. Gary IN
13. Hammond IN
12. Flint MI
11. Manhattan KS
10. Rockford IL
9. Charleston WV
8. Erie PA
7. Detroit MI
6. Jackson MS
5. Saginaw MI
4. Shreveport LA
3. Decatur IL
2. Provo UT
1. Columbus GA


I admit i was a bit shock that Saint.Louis wasn't on this cause it's a usual to be expected.

I think the shockers on the list are Provo & Columbus GA

What is the status of the mosaic project? How do we attract more immigrants?

Maybe by not being such a backwards, national embarrassment? Word does get around, especially nowadays with the internet.

We need to fix a lot of things around here, and the progress is too slow.

A year later, what has come from the Ferguson Commission? Look at W. Florissant. Still bad.

Look at gun violence. Look at schools in the city. 75% of city kids don't have access to a decent education.

Look at unemployment, STDs, abandoned buildings, trash, illegal dumping, etc. We really need to up our game.

That's a little harsh don't you think? Many of those issues listed above are complicated national problems. What progress do you expect exactly?

Re: the Ferguson Commission - Aren't there now citizen review boards in place? Didn't the commission just meet again last week in St. Charles?

What are you doing to help? Do you volunteer?

I don't think it's harsh at all, and yes, I do volunteer. A lot.

Did you know that apparently the city of Nashville had fewer than 50 murders last year? That's like a third of what we have.

Do you disagree we have a lousy state of education in St. Louis? Trash and abandoned buildings? Racial tension?

Not sure what I wrote that was "harsh", but if you disagree, please explain.

Well, okay, so it's not the "nice talk" that people in St. Louis are so famous for...

75% of city kids don't have access to a decent education.

Not true.

100% of the kids in the city have access to a decent education at SLPS. The facilities are adequate, the teachers are all degreed educators, many with masters degrees.

In terms of the kids' backgrounds, that is the failure, and in my opinion, something SLPS will never have the resources to properly address as long as the teachers are stuck with the existing student body composition. Put another way and repeating myself - you take the students from Ladue and the students from Vachon, and swap facilities and staff, and there will be no measurable change for either student body, though the Vachon students entering Ladue might fare worse since those teachers have never had to deal with deep poverty. The only way to solve the problem is regional deseg. You can't have schools that are 80% poor and consistently expect them to function as schools.

In terms of the kids' backgrounds, that is the failure, and in my opinion, something SLPS will never have the resources to properly address as long as the teachers are stuck with the existing student body composition. Put another way and repeating myself - you take the students from Ladue and the students from Vachon, and swap facilities and staff, and there will be no measurable change for either student body, though the Vachon students entering Ladue might fare worse since those teachers have never had to deal with deep poverty. The only way to solve the problem is regional deseg. You can't have schools that are 80% poor and consistently expect them to function as schools.

So true. SLPS's low rankings are attributed to the lack of education so many poor students get outside of school hours.

onecity wrote:The solution to a lot of these problems in my opinion: live in the city, work in the city, buy stuff from local businesses in the city as much as possible. Do as many of those things as often as you can, because it comes down to economics every time. That will grow the city.

100% agree and that is my plan as well. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to work in the city (hope to change that soon), but I can check all the other boxes.

onecity wrote:The solution to a lot of these problems in my opinion: live in the city, work in the city, buy stuff from local businesses in the city as much as possible. Do as many of those things as often as you can, because it comes down to economics every time. That will grow the city.

^ this is why i find Alex Ihnen to be a total fraud and hypocrite.

^sarcasm?

wabash wrote:^sarcasm?

none at all

dbInSouthCity wrote:
^ this is why i find Alex Ihnen to be a total fraud and hypocrite.

Dude what is your beef? Let it go.