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The url http://www.therenaissanceoneuclid.com/ is still there, and the building is still on the Emporis site at http://www.emporis.com/en/wm/bu/?id=212180.
There's no new information at all at either site . . . but one can hope.
There's no new information at all at either site . . . but one can hope.
The mills project will be scaled back. It's important to note this is not because of the height or neighborhood opposition. The project had some problems and oppostion with its eastern elevation but these could have been worked through. Scaling back the project is the developers call as a result of the softing residential real estate market. The revised project will be reviewed shortly by the CWEMD development committee. For more information contact Dan Krasnoff at 535-5311 or by email at d.krasnoff@sbcglobal.net. The project will still respect the key planning pricipals for that location of high density, 1st floor retail, and no visable paking from the street. While the project is lower in density than originally planned, it will still have a density higher than the minimum target amount for that corner. The ultimate neighborhood target density goal is 50 people per acre for the 240 acres bounded roughly by Sarah, Kingshighway, Lindell, Forest Park, or 12000. Last census was 6000.
^Unfortunate news if true. Do you have any other details on how much it is being scaled back? Ie. How tall will it be and how many units? Will those be for sale or for rent?
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Wow an Alderman took the time to report to his constituents online! You sir Alderman Joe Roddy have earned my favor. Now if only other Aldermen/women would learn to be this transparent/informative with their plans.....ward17 wrote:The mills project will be scaled back. It's important to note this is not because of the height or neighborhood opposition. The project had some problems and oppostion with its eastern elevation but these could have been worked through. Scaling back the project is the developers call as a result of the softing residential real estate market. The revised project will be reviewed shortly by the CWEMD development committee. For more information contact Dan Krasnoff at 535-5311 or by email at d.krasnoff@sbcglobal.net. The project will still respect the key planning pricipals for that location of high density, 1st floor retail, and no visable paking from the street. While the project is lower in density than originally planned, it will still have a density higher than the minimum target amount for that corner. The ultimate neighborhood target density goal is 50 people per acre for the 240 acres bounded roughly by Sarah, Kingshighway, Lindell, Forest Park, or 12000. Last census was 6000.
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This is too bad - also for the implications this has for West Pine/Euclid and the open lot(s) at Kingshighway/Lindell. If the market isn't strong enough to support more than one 20+ condo tower, one can't be too hopeful regarding other proposed developments.
ward17: in your opinion, what's the big picture look like?
ward17: in your opinion, what's the big picture look like?
The softening of the real estate market is probably a reference to the nation in general, which has indirectly impacted demand in the CWE. The housing bubble caused many more houses to be built than there were buyers interested in buying them. I don't think that this was the case for the CWE, but as the prices of all the unsold houses in county or other cities, etc drop, it is going to be harder for housebuyers to pass those deals up and therefore less demand to live in the CWE.
With the competition from these cheaper homes in, say St. Charles, it is going to be hard to lure buyers in for the higher priced condos, so fewer units will have to be built until the housing market is back in balance. I wouldn't rule out Kingshighway towers in the near future...
With the competition from these cheaper homes in, say St. Charles, it is going to be hard to lure buyers in for the higher priced condos, so fewer units will have to be built until the housing market is back in balance. I wouldn't rule out Kingshighway towers in the near future...
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I can see in some manner how the CWE and StL fit into the larger housing picture, but we haven't experienced the "bubble" like the coasts. If given the current circumstances one can't justify building in the CWE - when will someone build there? If a project needs to be conceived, planned, approved and constructed all in an atmosphere of overwhelming demand, I don't see much being built.
I guess I'll rephrase my big picture question:
What does the picture for the 17th Ward look like?
I guess I'll rephrase my big picture question:
What does the picture for the 17th Ward look like?
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If a doubling of the population density for the CWE is part of the big picture, that sounds pretty good to me. I'm not sure how 12,000 people in 240 acres stacks up against other urban neighborhoods, but I have to think it will go a long way towards contributing to the area's vitality.
At a cocktail party the other night, I heard some elderly suits discussing the housing market and so I sat down, kept quiet and listened. Their theory is that bubble talk has sent many prospective buyers to the sidelines while they wait (and pray) for a major collapse. I should also note that the elderly suits were in agreement that developers did in fact overbuild which led to this "bubble", but they also were in agreement that the real estate market would not crash like the stock market did. They did agree however that a few particular areas in the South might get hit hard but these developments sounded like retirement golf communities. What I took away from all this was that if someone was going to buy a house now, given the market conditions and what they read in the paper everyday, common sense would suggest to wait, and then wait a bit more. Interest rates have stopped going up, and a lot of people (right or wrong) think that prices are going to come down. So if that's popular thought, then buyers will accumulate as they wait, housing will accumulate as buyers wait, sellers will get inpatient and some will be forced to lower prices, or foreclosure, and so on and so on, until the deals reach a point where buyers come running back in. I dont' know if I think they're 100% right, but I do know a few people who were looking to buy and are now patiently waiting on the sidelines hoping for market declines. Unfortunately, news of scale backs only adds fuel to this fire. I wish we had some news going the other way so we could put this bubble talk fire out.
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It is still applaudable that an alderman took the time to read through this forum and post so as to inform the cyber populace whether we live in his ward or not. Posters on the forum sometimes are potential buyers like Tax Guru.
It is still great that the project is pushing forward despite the national trend. I am also pleased with the dedication of the alderman towards greater density which shall improve the economics of the ward, city, & region.
Maybe the Metrolink will have a spillover effect? Is there any development that is built at high densities that addresses WashU students other than the expensive Metro apartments?
It is still great that the project is pushing forward despite the national trend. I am also pleased with the dedication of the alderman towards greater density which shall improve the economics of the ward, city, & region.
Maybe the Metrolink will have a spillover effect? Is there any development that is built at high densities that addresses WashU students other than the expensive Metro apartments?
^ Here, here to the alderman. Getting opinions and information from insiders is definitely a plus for all of us.
A minor clarification--I've already bought into your St. Louis paradise. As with all my investments, my fingers are crossed.
A minor clarification--I've already bought into your St. Louis paradise. As with all my investments, my fingers are crossed.
I'll take a shot at some of the comments.
Re: soft market--Since 2000 the 240 acres north of Forest Park in the 17th ward has added about 800 units (meto lofts 216, Park East 90, Forest Park Hotel 120, 6 n. Sarah 80, Univesity Village 225, plus scattered smaller projects). With a 2000 population of 6000 and an ave. of 1.5 people per unit I estimate the population of that area at 7200 when the new units are absorbed. There are another 800 units in the planning stages.
High rise condo development is among the riskiest and most complex projects to develop. The start up costs are very high over $1MM for Park East and thats before you start presales. Typically you will need 50% presales before you can get construction financing. It gets tougher when you have multiple projects competing for the relatively small pool of buyers like exists in St. Louis.
In the late 70's till the mid 80's St. Lois actually did a great job of using the historic tax credit but the tax reform act of '86 that eliminated the credit and legnted the depreciation schedule for investment property caused a real estate crash for the entire country. I was working for GMAC investment property group at the time and it was ugly. By the time I got elected in '88 the city was on hard times. Prior to '86 we were putting up 1-2000 living units per year. After '86 we had one year at about 25 units for the whole city. My first several years the only projects I did was Hampden Hall the old beauty at Mcpherson and Newstead and Bradford Ct. at Maryland and Taylor.
I'm hoping that the reverse migration of baby boomers and our job growth resulting from the medical center and CORTEX will make this real estate recession a soft landing for the city.
RE: Why 12000/240 acres--Knowing what felt vibrant but not knowing what makes it vibrant we worked backwards. Let's start with Boston's back bay--one of my favorite N American neighborhoods and not too far out of reach for the CWE. Rollin Stanley, our director of planning and a great addition to the city's payroll did a side by side comparison of what's in back bay and the 240 of the 17th ward north of Forest Park. The back bay had 50/acre. Dan Krasnoff of the CWEDC staff surveyed the 240 acres for undeveloped sites and we established target densities for the sites based on their location with the goal of getting us to 12000 people. The back bay has many other things we don't have like a convention center, several thousand hotel rooms, a major shopping center, and several MM sf of office space that dump people out on the street. We know this and are working on several things to help including CORTEX but we need to start with the residential density.
Hope this helps explain my/our thinking.
Re: soft market--Since 2000 the 240 acres north of Forest Park in the 17th ward has added about 800 units (meto lofts 216, Park East 90, Forest Park Hotel 120, 6 n. Sarah 80, Univesity Village 225, plus scattered smaller projects). With a 2000 population of 6000 and an ave. of 1.5 people per unit I estimate the population of that area at 7200 when the new units are absorbed. There are another 800 units in the planning stages.
High rise condo development is among the riskiest and most complex projects to develop. The start up costs are very high over $1MM for Park East and thats before you start presales. Typically you will need 50% presales before you can get construction financing. It gets tougher when you have multiple projects competing for the relatively small pool of buyers like exists in St. Louis.
In the late 70's till the mid 80's St. Lois actually did a great job of using the historic tax credit but the tax reform act of '86 that eliminated the credit and legnted the depreciation schedule for investment property caused a real estate crash for the entire country. I was working for GMAC investment property group at the time and it was ugly. By the time I got elected in '88 the city was on hard times. Prior to '86 we were putting up 1-2000 living units per year. After '86 we had one year at about 25 units for the whole city. My first several years the only projects I did was Hampden Hall the old beauty at Mcpherson and Newstead and Bradford Ct. at Maryland and Taylor.
I'm hoping that the reverse migration of baby boomers and our job growth resulting from the medical center and CORTEX will make this real estate recession a soft landing for the city.
RE: Why 12000/240 acres--Knowing what felt vibrant but not knowing what makes it vibrant we worked backwards. Let's start with Boston's back bay--one of my favorite N American neighborhoods and not too far out of reach for the CWE. Rollin Stanley, our director of planning and a great addition to the city's payroll did a side by side comparison of what's in back bay and the 240 of the 17th ward north of Forest Park. The back bay had 50/acre. Dan Krasnoff of the CWEDC staff surveyed the 240 acres for undeveloped sites and we established target densities for the sites based on their location with the goal of getting us to 12000 people. The back bay has many other things we don't have like a convention center, several thousand hotel rooms, a major shopping center, and several MM sf of office space that dump people out on the street. We know this and are working on several things to help including CORTEX but we need to start with the residential density.
Hope this helps explain my/our thinking.
A few other factors worth mentioning:
I in no way believe there is a bubble in St. Louis. Why? Because St. Louis is still considerably behind the curve in the success of its urban redevelopment efforts. The local perception tide has only recently begun to turn in our region relative to most other regions. Many local people are considering living in the city that never would have 5 years ago. Every city sales and leasing agent with whom I have spoken has said that the majority of those moving into their projects are from West Co. or are coming back to St. Louis from elsewhere. More recent college grads are considering living in the city after college graduation, whereas 5 years ago they would either leave the region or live in Chesterfield. This is a huge market that the city is just beginning to tap. Other cities, whose redevelopment efforts began to find success ten or more years ago have more or less tapped that market.
Having said that, the national real estate market will have some effect here. SOME local people will undoubtedly hear all the scary national news and put off buying/investing here. Investors from outside St. Louis may also put off buying here for the same reason, and because they do not understand the local market. The balance, however, is still in St. Louis' favor, especially considering that there are a great many projects about to come on line, which will greatly revive some areas of the city, further changing people's perceptions. Finally, nation-wide capital providers will naturally pull back from financing and investing in residential real estate as the perceived risk goes up, which of course makes capital for new projects more difficult to find, and reduces competition in the industry, thus driving up the cost of financing those projects. There are still many, many providers out there, however, that specialize in, and understand, secondary markets. Moreover, some of those nation-wide capital providers that get burned in markets like Chicago, NYC, and Miami, just might then take a second look at more stable markets like St. Louis.
Last, it is very important to remember that this was an extremely ambitious project for a company like Mills from day one. They are a small firm and they naturally are much more risk averse than a national company like OPUS. If a large OPUS project fails, it hurts, but the company will survive. If a large Mills project fails, the company is gone. It should not be at all surprising that they are scaling back. It is just as much reality setting in as anything to do with the real estate market. They might have thought that, with their nice renderings and prime location, they could attract a co-developer to reduce their risk, or a buyout. When that didn't happen, they moved on to Plan B.
No worries.
I in no way believe there is a bubble in St. Louis. Why? Because St. Louis is still considerably behind the curve in the success of its urban redevelopment efforts. The local perception tide has only recently begun to turn in our region relative to most other regions. Many local people are considering living in the city that never would have 5 years ago. Every city sales and leasing agent with whom I have spoken has said that the majority of those moving into their projects are from West Co. or are coming back to St. Louis from elsewhere. More recent college grads are considering living in the city after college graduation, whereas 5 years ago they would either leave the region or live in Chesterfield. This is a huge market that the city is just beginning to tap. Other cities, whose redevelopment efforts began to find success ten or more years ago have more or less tapped that market.
Having said that, the national real estate market will have some effect here. SOME local people will undoubtedly hear all the scary national news and put off buying/investing here. Investors from outside St. Louis may also put off buying here for the same reason, and because they do not understand the local market. The balance, however, is still in St. Louis' favor, especially considering that there are a great many projects about to come on line, which will greatly revive some areas of the city, further changing people's perceptions. Finally, nation-wide capital providers will naturally pull back from financing and investing in residential real estate as the perceived risk goes up, which of course makes capital for new projects more difficult to find, and reduces competition in the industry, thus driving up the cost of financing those projects. There are still many, many providers out there, however, that specialize in, and understand, secondary markets. Moreover, some of those nation-wide capital providers that get burned in markets like Chicago, NYC, and Miami, just might then take a second look at more stable markets like St. Louis.
Last, it is very important to remember that this was an extremely ambitious project for a company like Mills from day one. They are a small firm and they naturally are much more risk averse than a national company like OPUS. If a large OPUS project fails, it hurts, but the company will survive. If a large Mills project fails, the company is gone. It should not be at all surprising that they are scaling back. It is just as much reality setting in as anything to do with the real estate market. They might have thought that, with their nice renderings and prime location, they could attract a co-developer to reduce their risk, or a buyout. When that didn't happen, they moved on to Plan B.
No worries.
While there might not have been a true buble in St. Louis, never under estimate the impact of the local and national media talking every night about how the economy is in a slowdown lead by the declining real estate sector. Preception more than reality should be the concern.
While I know that towers are quite risky, I still think/ belive that demand for urban living is strong, but with rising intrest rates and folks being told everyday that the real estate market is slowing, folks are less willing to buy. Will OPUS, Mills, or others step up with some rental unit development? Are land values in the CWE too high to support such a development?
While I know that towers are quite risky, I still think/ belive that demand for urban living is strong, but with rising intrest rates and folks being told everyday that the real estate market is slowing, folks are less willing to buy. Will OPUS, Mills, or others step up with some rental unit development? Are land values in the CWE too high to support such a development?
What I would like to see happen is local job growth. If St. Louis companies can grow and create new jobs, the new employees will either create more demand for housing, or at the very least help sustain what's already out there. Stability will come from people who want to set up house rather than people who are speculating. If we can add to that baby boomers who are interested in more urban life, that would even be better. But I don't think depending on the baby boomers alone will take St. Louis to the next level.
While I think it's too early to tell if St. Louis is totally protected from this alleged bubble, I think we can safely assume St. Louis saw far less speculation than New York or Miami. Although, if you look at some of the posts for downtown lofts 1-2 years ago, you might think St. Louis was rampant with young and eager speculators. And they probably did very well for themselves.
While I think it's too early to tell if St. Louis is totally protected from this alleged bubble, I think we can safely assume St. Louis saw far less speculation than New York or Miami. Although, if you look at some of the posts for downtown lofts 1-2 years ago, you might think St. Louis was rampant with young and eager speculators. And they probably did very well for themselves.
i just wanted to share a little story
I work for an insurance agent in the CWE, Yesterday we wrote a policy for a mid 30's couple that just moved over from belleville. They found that they really loved spending time in STL and made the big move. They bought a house near metro because they work at SWICC and take the train over everyday. They love biking and walking around the CWE. but being able to use the metro to get to work and for friends to make a stress free trip across the river sealed the deal.
So the metro has already brought people in to the area to live.
I work for an insurance agent in the CWE, Yesterday we wrote a policy for a mid 30's couple that just moved over from belleville. They found that they really loved spending time in STL and made the big move. They bought a house near metro because they work at SWICC and take the train over everyday. They love biking and walking around the CWE. but being able to use the metro to get to work and for friends to make a stress free trip across the river sealed the deal.
So the metro has already brought people in to the area to live.
Bruce Mills shared his scaled back plans for this project last night with his neighboring Condos. Now that the plans are public feel free to contact Dan Krasnoff (535-5311) for renderings. Still a very attractive project but much shorter.
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6 stories.
IMO - this may work better as infill. It would be fantastic if six storey buildings can fill in the CWE. Also - I'd take 30 storeys at Lindell/Kingshighway instead of at West Pine. It may not be a direct trade, but three large towers along Euclid would certainly lessen demand for another tower.
IMO - this may work better as infill. It would be fantastic if six storey buildings can fill in the CWE. Also - I'd take 30 storeys at Lindell/Kingshighway instead of at West Pine. It may not be a direct trade, but three large towers along Euclid would certainly lessen demand for another tower.
Ihnen wrote:6 stories.
IMO - this may work better as infill. It would be fantastic if six storey buildings can fill in the CWE. Also - I'd take 30 storeys at Lindell/Kingshighway instead of at West Pine. It may not be a direct trade, but three large towers along Euclid would certainly lessen demand for another tower.
Beggars can't be choosers.
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I wouldn't mind six stories either, IF it was truly infill, or replacing something shorter. For example, I could see six stories for something built on the parking lot east of the Doctor's Building. But since this is a corner, and they'll tear down an existing, relatively tall building, it's kind of disappointing to see shorter buildings take its place.
As a result, this project now reminds me of the recent townhomes built (also on West Pine), where that development replaced a circular tower. While such developments don't add much vertical density, they do have better streetscape, or nice horizontal density, making for a nice, walkable environment at street level, unlike the "tower-in-the-park" site replaced.
As a result, this project now reminds me of the recent townhomes built (also on West Pine), where that development replaced a circular tower. While such developments don't add much vertical density, they do have better streetscape, or nice horizontal density, making for a nice, walkable environment at street level, unlike the "tower-in-the-park" site replaced.