You make a lot of assumptions here. Do you have any data to suport your broad claims,(i.e. finite downtown gowth potential, not enough jobs, etc)? I assume Ghazi has done a pheasability study and they at least partially know what they are doing. Your concerns are valid, but I don't think it's fair to declare TBD "doomed" simply because of the opinions that you have posted above.innov8ion wrote:1. BPV & TBD projects are similar and thus will compete against each other.
2. BPV area has the highest concentration of residents in the demographic necessary for success. (Pulling from WashAve, CBD, BPV, Landing)
3. Downtown has finite residential growth potential as it's targeted mainly to young professionals and empty nesters. Also, not enough jobs downtown yet. I'd like to see the lofts fill in the CBD, Washington Ave & BPV & Landing areas first. Correspondingly, the necessary infrastructure to fill in around it. For cripes sake, is it too much to ask to have an open restaurant or store open up at night or on the weekend? Let's solve that problem first; and where people actually live, not on the periphery.
4. Both projects can't succeed as envisioned. BPV will thrive and TBD won't for the reasons stated above.
5. Make the core of downtown strong first.... If money is wasted in the periphery, it weakens the core and could hurt the beloved renaissance.
- 1,493
You are correct, I don't have numbers. However, a little analysis and common sense normally go a long way. Do you agree or disagree with most of what was said? I'd be curious to see their numbers and business case. And no I'm not anti-downtown rennaissance or whatever. If it's a success and positive for downtown, great. I think it's more wishful thinking by Charlotte investors and McGuire and don't see how it fits in the puzzle.... And uhhhhh, groundbreaking for this project was held a year ago. What ground has been broken? What news has there been recently? Tell me... KISS principle, baby... Dollars to doughnuts, this one's getting scaled back or shitcanned.
- 1,493
I don't really agree or disagree since I don't have data to support my opinion. I just want to be careful not to form judgement based on perception and not fact. Unless a market study durfaces with data showing a limited DT growth potential, I'll hold off on my judgement.
Be careful assuming that Ghazi is still involved with this project (The Ghazi Company has been removed from TBD website). This seems to be common practice for this development team, so until this team can establish and maintain some stability, I think any faith that this project will see the light of day is misplaced. I know TBD is still listed on Ghazi's website, but they failed to answer an inquiry as to why Ghazi is no longer listed on TBD website. This project would be great if it was lead by a development team that had a clue.
Urban Elitist wrote:I don't really agree or disagree since I don't have data to support my opinion. I just want to be careful not to form judgement based on perception and not fact. Unless a market study durfaces with data showing a limited DT growth potential, I'll hold off on my judgement.
Very early on (2-3 years ago) there was information provided in a feasibility study and listed a maximum of 250-300 for sale residential units for this campus. This study was provided before the influx of the residential lofts in the downtown area - I are curious if this study is still accurate or how downtown would need to change to absorb additional residential capacity. My guess is the downtown area is still substantially short on service-based retail (grocery stores, etc...) IMO.
I respect that from you, UE. And it's not just quantitative data that counts, but qualitative as well. The qualitative looks pretty strong, that's why I'd like to see some numbers and a revised business plan that shows it's still viable.
Urban Elitist wrote:I don't really agree or disagree since I don't have data to support my opinion. I just want to be careful not to form judgement based on perception and not fact. Unless a market study durfaces with data showing a limited DT growth potential, I'll hold off on my judgement.
Agreed, Ihnen. Still waiting for the following to be completed and have their residents (not invisible investors) move in. It's still early yet....
- Lucas Lofts
- The Bogen
- Dorsa Lofts
- Syndicate
- Ely Walker
- Avenida
- Ventana
- Park Pacific
- etc......
- Lucas Lofts
- The Bogen
- Dorsa Lofts
- Syndicate
- Ely Walker
- Avenida
- Ventana
- Park Pacific
- etc......
bpe235 wrote:^ I think the services come after the residential..
I know it is both easy to say this project will be a failure and easy to point that we all have no hard facts to say one way or another, but I do belive a healthy level of skepticisim is a good idea.
The post by southslider posted some of the first postive info in months. But at the same time anyone who looks at the info posted on here must have to see all the cracks in the facade of this project going forward in the dramtic fashion we all belived possible a year ago.
1. Those designs were done by Forum Studios and are dated in May I belive, and as we know, the Bottle District is no longer listed on the Forum website.
2. The timeline presented in the PDF lines the project up so that it would compete almost directly with the Ballpark Village and who here thinks that the Bottle District will win in that competition?
3. Jambalya has already pointed out that Ghazi has been removed from the Bottle District website, for whatever that is worth.
Just an aside, given the info presented on here before about those involved in the project trying to get McGwire out of the project, maybe he didn't take kindly to the notion he can't get the development done and that explains why Ghazi and Forum are on the way out.
The post by southslider posted some of the first postive info in months. But at the same time anyone who looks at the info posted on here must have to see all the cracks in the facade of this project going forward in the dramtic fashion we all belived possible a year ago.
1. Those designs were done by Forum Studios and are dated in May I belive, and as we know, the Bottle District is no longer listed on the Forum website.
2. The timeline presented in the PDF lines the project up so that it would compete almost directly with the Ballpark Village and who here thinks that the Bottle District will win in that competition?
3. Jambalya has already pointed out that Ghazi has been removed from the Bottle District website, for whatever that is worth.
Just an aside, given the info presented on here before about those involved in the project trying to get McGwire out of the project, maybe he didn't take kindly to the notion he can't get the development done and that explains why Ghazi and Forum are on the way out.
- 11K
I think there are a couple items to note:
It's a fact that the Bottle District will be separated from the core CDB for years after it is built and that won't be until 2012 - assuming everything stays in schedule.
In the end, this is still going to be out of the way. Most people coming downtown are going to pick one area to park/metro and then stay in that vicinity for the night (this is how they compete with one another). Are Pinnacle customers going to walk there? No. Are Rams fans going to go there? Maybe - 8x a year. There is less residential scheduled than BPV and it's further from the existing higher density residential areas. It may be closer, in distance, to Wash Ave than BPV, but who's is going to walk past a couple dead blocks of the dome? No one. I don't think anyone will argue that downtown has enough/or will ever have enough residents to support the new developments - no downtown does, not Chicago, not D.C. . . .
What is this area going to offer that all the aforementioned places lack? As with many projected projects, this only gets build if units can be sold on a deadline and financing arrives just as whoever is managing this thing is ready. Also, if Ghazi did a feasibility study and the result was that residential could wait until 2012 . . . well that doesn't tell you much. Neither they nor us know now whether something should be build starting in 2010. This project's on hold.
It's a fact that the Bottle District will be separated from the core CDB for years after it is built and that won't be until 2012 - assuming everything stays in schedule.
In the end, this is still going to be out of the way. Most people coming downtown are going to pick one area to park/metro and then stay in that vicinity for the night (this is how they compete with one another). Are Pinnacle customers going to walk there? No. Are Rams fans going to go there? Maybe - 8x a year. There is less residential scheduled than BPV and it's further from the existing higher density residential areas. It may be closer, in distance, to Wash Ave than BPV, but who's is going to walk past a couple dead blocks of the dome? No one. I don't think anyone will argue that downtown has enough/or will ever have enough residents to support the new developments - no downtown does, not Chicago, not D.C. . . .
What is this area going to offer that all the aforementioned places lack? As with many projected projects, this only gets build if units can be sold on a deadline and financing arrives just as whoever is managing this thing is ready. Also, if Ghazi did a feasibility study and the result was that residential could wait until 2012 . . . well that doesn't tell you much. Neither they nor us know now whether something should be build starting in 2010. This project's on hold.
^ Well you bring up an intersting side question. As jambalya said before, there was apparently a study conducted that said the site could only handel 250-300 units. I wonder now, if that really is more a reflection of the desire to live in a development so cut off from the rest of downtown than a refleciton of the demand for downtown living?
JMedwick wrote:^ Well you bring up an intersting side question. As jambalya said before, there was apparently a study conducted that said the site could only handel 250-300 units. I wonder now, if that really is more a reflection of the desire to live in a development so cut off from the rest of downtown than a refleciton of the demand for downtown living?
To be honest it's not the greatest location to live. The dome and convention center to the south, I-70 to the east and north and (partially) public housing to the west.
^ Very true. But then again, if the downtown metrolink loop ran along Cole and Broadway, connecting this site into downtown, I don't think it would be as much of an issue. Perhaps rather than paying money to build huge towers, the developers would be better off working out a public-private agreement with Metro to swing the line by the property.
- 101
The bottle district's main goal is to be an entertainment venue. Shops, etc... So, the residential demand is only part of the project.
Also, the common trend in all urban areas is for services to follow residents. It takes a while, but it comes. That should be a non-issue honestly, there will be a few more years of 'deprivation of services' but they wil come.
Demand is still relatively high for residential and this is what motivates ambitious developers. Step on top of step, ask Chicago. Places such as downtown are unique, becuase the bigger they grow, often, the greater the demand.
The more neighborhoods that are created downtown, ie BPV, TBD, WashAve, Post-Office, Landing, Couples, West-Loft Dist.,... will attract more people who desire different things.
TBD has lots going for it, honestly: It sits at the intersection of the dome, the landing and the new casino. This could be a major success if it learns to feed off of these 3 massive draws.
Also, the common trend in all urban areas is for services to follow residents. It takes a while, but it comes. That should be a non-issue honestly, there will be a few more years of 'deprivation of services' but they wil come.
Demand is still relatively high for residential and this is what motivates ambitious developers. Step on top of step, ask Chicago. Places such as downtown are unique, becuase the bigger they grow, often, the greater the demand.
The more neighborhoods that are created downtown, ie BPV, TBD, WashAve, Post-Office, Landing, Couples, West-Loft Dist.,... will attract more people who desire different things.
TBD has lots going for it, honestly: It sits at the intersection of the dome, the landing and the new casino. This could be a major success if it learns to feed off of these 3 massive draws.
- 8,912
JMedwick wrote:^ Very true. But then again, if the downtown metrolink loop ran along Cole and Broadway, connecting this site into downtown, I don't think it would be as much of an issue. Perhaps rather than paying money to build huge towers, the developers would be better off working out a public-private agreement with Metro to swing the line by the property.
great point... I am a huge advocate of that DT loop...
JMedwick wrote:
Just an aside, given the info presented on here before about those involved in the project trying to get McGwire out of the project, maybe he didn't take kindly to the notion he can't get the development done and that explains why Ghazi is on the way out.
You're on the right track...
^So what exactly is going on? Are you still involved with the project.
I'm here every day.
Here's the thing, I'm not going to be all "Watergate" with everyone because we would never pretend to be that important. I appreciate everyone's dedication to commercial development downtown and the support and criticism of TBD. However, being in the position that I'm in, I can't post anything that I haven't already told the media.
The project is moving forward and the players that have been assembled within this development team (not all of them publically) will not allow this development to stop - for a lot of the reasons your blog has brought up recently.
Here's the thing, I'm not going to be all "Watergate" with everyone because we would never pretend to be that important. I appreciate everyone's dedication to commercial development downtown and the support and criticism of TBD. However, being in the position that I'm in, I can't post anything that I haven't already told the media.
The project is moving forward and the players that have been assembled within this development team (not all of them publically) will not allow this development to stop - for a lot of the reasons your blog has brought up recently.
That's all I really cared to know, if it was really still alive or not. Thanks for letting us know a little something official, because all this speculation doesn't really do anything.
- 1,493
My thoughts exactally.MattnSTL wrote: all this speculation doesn't really do anything.
Ihnen wrote:I think there are a couple items to note:
It's a fact that the Bottle District will be separated from the core CDB for years after it is built and that won't be until 2012 - assuming everything stays in schedule.
In the end, this is still going to be out of the way. Most people coming downtown are going to pick one area to park/metro and then stay in that vicinity for the night (this is how they compete with one another). Are Pinnacle customers going to walk there? No. Are Rams fans going to go there? Maybe - 8x a year. There is less residential scheduled than BPV and it's further from the existing higher density residential areas. It may be closer, in distance, to Wash Ave than BPV, but who's is going to walk past a couple dead blocks of the dome? No one. I don't think anyone will argue that downtown has enough/or will ever have enough residents to support the new developments - no downtown does, not Chicago, not D.C. . . .
What is this area going to offer that all the aforementioned places lack? As with many projected projects, this only gets build if units can be sold on a deadline and financing arrives just as whoever is managing this thing is ready. Also, if Ghazi did a feasibility study and the result was that residential could wait until 2012 . . . well that doesn't tell you much. Neither they nor us know now whether something should be build starting in 2010. This project's on hold.
Just a comment on the bolded part - according to the Planned Unit Development linked to by southslider a couple of pages back, there are roughly 2400 residential units planned for the Bottle District, about twice what is planned for BPV.
That's off the top of my head - the PDF file won't open for me here at work.
-RBB
mhbTBD,
Thank you for posting information so that we don't have to keep throwing back pointless speculation. I think I speak for all of us when I say that we'd love for you to give us periodic updates on anything you can say about the project. The local media is worthless anyway, and people like us spread the buzz around town alot more than 99% of the media. I for one am pulling for this project 100%, and think that this project could really show the naysayers (those that say, "Sure they'll build the BPV but DT's not ready for much else) that they're wrong.
Thank you for posting information so that we don't have to keep throwing back pointless speculation. I think I speak for all of us when I say that we'd love for you to give us periodic updates on anything you can say about the project. The local media is worthless anyway, and people like us spread the buzz around town alot more than 99% of the media. I for one am pulling for this project 100%, and think that this project could really show the naysayers (those that say, "Sure they'll build the BPV but DT's not ready for much else) that they're wrong.
- 11K
Good catch - 250 apartments by 2010 and a total of 2,470 by 2012. This is double BPV. This would be huge for the near northside. And it's good to hear from someone on the 'inside'. Perhaps we should all talk more about how Chouteau Lake and M/W Tower are pipe dreams and maybe someone will feel compelled to prove us wrong 
So I'm still trying to get an idea of what downtown 2020 looks like:
Wash Ave: residential, restuarants, boutique shops
Chouteau's Landing: family entertainment
BPV: retail hub, residential, entertainment-aquarium
Chouteau Lake: recreation, residential, office
Bottle District: residential, entertainment
M/W Tower: retail, residential, office
Anyone want to do the math?
residential units, ~6,000+?
retail, ~1M sq/ft+
office, ~1M sq/ft+ . . .
I love the city, but this seems like a lot. I'm here for at least 8 years and if all this is substantially done by then, I will never leave!
So I'm still trying to get an idea of what downtown 2020 looks like:
Wash Ave: residential, restuarants, boutique shops
Chouteau's Landing: family entertainment
BPV: retail hub, residential, entertainment-aquarium
Chouteau Lake: recreation, residential, office
Bottle District: residential, entertainment
M/W Tower: retail, residential, office
Anyone want to do the math?
residential units, ~6,000+?
retail, ~1M sq/ft+
office, ~1M sq/ft+ . . .
I love the city, but this seems like a lot. I'm here for at least 8 years and if all this is substantially done by then, I will never leave!
Here are a few tidbits - all public knowledge:
Board Bill # 128 was approved by the Board of Aldermen. This bill approved rezoning the Bottle District property from “J” (light industrial) to “I” Central Business District. This especially accommodates the residential condo tower use.
Board Bill # 129 was approved on by the Board of Aldermen & Planning & Zoning Commission. This bill created a PUD, Planned Unit Development in The Bottle District redevelopment area. There is wording concerning “Times Square” type signage that is needed, and the condo towers may rise up to 700 feet above grade.
RSA - The Regional Sports Authority board met with us and agreed to “convey up to 15,000 SF of Baer Plaza (the green space median across from The Edward Jones Dome) to the city of St. Louis, for use as 2 left turn lanes from 4th Street into the Bottle District and onto Cole Street”. The conveyance is contingent on the final design from Crawford, Bunte, Brammeier Engineers and the project being built within 2 years.
CID and TDD – The Transportation Development District and Community Improvement District petitions for the Bottle District were filed.
Board Bill # 128 was approved by the Board of Aldermen. This bill approved rezoning the Bottle District property from “J” (light industrial) to “I” Central Business District. This especially accommodates the residential condo tower use.
Board Bill # 129 was approved on by the Board of Aldermen & Planning & Zoning Commission. This bill created a PUD, Planned Unit Development in The Bottle District redevelopment area. There is wording concerning “Times Square” type signage that is needed, and the condo towers may rise up to 700 feet above grade.
RSA - The Regional Sports Authority board met with us and agreed to “convey up to 15,000 SF of Baer Plaza (the green space median across from The Edward Jones Dome) to the city of St. Louis, for use as 2 left turn lanes from 4th Street into the Bottle District and onto Cole Street”. The conveyance is contingent on the final design from Crawford, Bunte, Brammeier Engineers and the project being built within 2 years.
CID and TDD – The Transportation Development District and Community Improvement District petitions for the Bottle District were filed.