urbanSTL

MattnSTL wrote:^It was scheduled to start fall '05.



That's why people on here have gotten so pessimistic.

Right..but projects get pushed back all the time for any number of reasons...I dunno, my gut says it'll get done...

I think it will get done as well, but not everyone realizes that projects are routinely pushed back. Not forgetting all the other worries people have.

As I said - I think it will get done as well, only that it is a negative that the project has been delayed after groundbreaking. This is certainly more unusual than say BPV that could have been started earlier, but have taken more time to plan.

^The longer they wait the more expensive the project gets. Material costs go up, financing offers expire, the cost of financing increases, estimates must be redone, contracts must be rebid, etc., etc. I would say that if we don't at the very least see some new renderings, or hear that so-and-so won some contract, by the end of the year, this project is toast, at least as "The Bottle District".



Of course, the McGuire's still own the land, so something will happen there, or they will just sell it. They could just speculate and hold on to it for awhile, waiting for the rest of downtown to improve, but I assume they have some sort of redevelopment agreement with the city, and that will expire eventually.

jblues is exactly right. There's a difference between pushing a project back because the general contractor is actually too busy to begin work and pushing a job back because no one can agree on a design. The latter can lead to millions in cost overruns, leading to a developer scrapping a project if it's no longer feasible.



For those who think this project will start by December, almost no projects that require extensive earthworks are started in winter, because the ground is so hard, it'd take twice as long to do the same job. I'd say wait until April 07 - if we don't have anything by then, I'd say it's done.



I'm not trying to be pessimistic, I'm really not, but without any physical action, and not a single update to the website or in the news, this is not looking good.

jlblues wrote:^The longer they wait the more expensive the project gets. Material costs go up, financing offers expire, the cost of financing increases, estimates must be redone, contracts must be rebid, etc., etc. I would say that if we don't at the very least see some new renderings, or hear that so-and-so won some contract, by the end of the year, this project is toast, at least as "The Bottle District".



Of course, the McGuire's still own the land, so something will happen there, or they will just sell it. They could just speculate and hold on to it for awhile, waiting for the rest of downtown to improve, but I assume they have some sort of redevelopment agreement with the city, and that will expire eventually.

Material costs have actually been going down, and interest rates have paused and the fed may start lowering them again. But you're still right, the longer the delay the better chance many aspects will have to be re-done and expenses will go up.



And I also don't see much getting started in the winter like miguel mentions...



Guess that leaves us with an empty lot and a lot of speculation for many more months.

buckethead wrote:
Guess that leaves us with an empty lot and a lot of speculation for many more months.

Ah, that's what online forums are all about.

buckethead wrote:...Material costs have actually been going down...

What is your source? SOME material costs have gone down slightly, but average construction costs have risen significantly over the last year, and they continue to outpace inflation.

buckethead wrote:...and interest rates have paused and the fed may start lowering them again...

Really? If the Fed has made any announcement that they are considering lowering interest rates in the near term, I certainly missed it. That would be big-bold-headline worthy news. They seem to still be concerned with inflation, read below...



Sept. 20 FOMC Press Release



Incidentally, there is a very relevant example on the front page of this week's BJ of the impact of rising construction costs on new development.

I agree with you and I know very well that construction costs have gone up considerably over the last year, but that is not a guarantee it will continue to go up.



Material prices have started to come down, mainly those based on the commodities. Plus the break in energy prices will make it's way down the chain and lower some costs too. Same with the bad housing numbers coming out recently. Housing starts down 21% YTD. With the housing construction boom over, demand is down which will positively affect supply. Lower construction demand may also lead to lower labor costs.





I don't profess to know what the fed will do with rates. However, they have paused and have not raised rates the last 2 months after 18 straight rate hikes. After the last rate hike, Bernanke's hawkish comments indicated he wasn't ready to end the rate hikes, yet that is exactly what they did a the next fed meeting. So what the Fed says does not always give us a good guess at what they may really do. For instances here is a quote which indicated they would raise rates again to control inflation.



"The risks continue to be weighted mainly toward heightened inflation pressures"



That was on Nov 15, 2000. Weeks later there was a 50 base point rate cut.



And other economic factors also point to a rate decrease. The bond market has TWO rate cuts factored into the 10 year treasury note prices.

buckethead wrote:I agree with you and I know very well that construction costs have gone up considerably over the last year, but that is not a guarantee it will continue to go up.



Material prices have started to come down, mainly those based on the commodities. Plus the break in energy prices will make it's way down the chain and lower some costs too. Same with the bad housing numbers coming out recently. Housing starts down 21% YTD. With the housing construction boom over, demand is down which will positively affect supply. Lower construction demand may also lead to lower labor costs.





I don't profess to know what the fed will do with rates. However, they have paused and have not raised rates the last 2 months after 18 straight rate hikes. After the last rate hike, Bernanke's hawkish comments indicated he wasn't ready to end the rate hikes, yet that is exactly what they did a the next fed meeting. So what the Fed says does not always give us a good guess at what they may really do. For instances here is a quote which indicated they would raise rates again to control inflation.



"The risks continue to be weighted mainly toward heightened inflation pressures"



That was on Nov 15, 2000. Weeks later there was a 50 base point rate cut.



And other economic factors also point to a rate decrease. The bond market has TWO rate cuts factored into the 10 year treasury note prices.

Actually, construction costs for commercial construction have increased dramatically due to petroleum based products used in construction. The general contractors we work with still view this as a very volatile pricing market.



And the dip in the residential construction market has little to zero impact on the commercial construction market (haven't seen too many high-rise office buildings built with 2x6's and wood trusses). Completely different construction types for completely different use groups - all driven by building codes.

I was talking about labor when I referred to the slow down in the housing market. More laborers looking for work now than before. Although, it's probably not as obvious in the St Louis market.



And the petroleum based product have of course gone up dramatically, however, with the recent decrease in the prices of crude oil, eventually those decreases will work their way down to all the petroleum based products. But like you said it is a very volatile market. Prices could swing back up as soon as we have another problem in the middle east or if a hurricane comes though the gulf or any other reason.

I try to pass by the project at least twice a week to see what is going on, if you see any equipement it is for the Cochran project, I see work going on at the Neighborhood Gardens but quite slow compared to what is going on around it. The low income housing next door to the Cochran seems to have faded also, there are still a few families left but the majority of townhomes are boarded up. I fear the BD area will become a VIP lot for Rams games and the Casino, which by the way is flying along. Maybe the casino complex will spur developement where it seems to have slowed.

TOO funny, yet very sad at the same time.

There is an article in the business journal today talking about how Ghazi is now out of the picture, and a new developer is going to be announced shortly. HRI is one of the ones talked about in the article.

appraisalman wrote:There is an article in the business journal today talking about how Ghazi is now out of the picture, and a new developer is going to be announced shortly. HRI is one of the ones talked about in the article.

Whoa, that's pretty huge news!

Somewhere, Don Meredith is singing "Turn Out the Lights, the Party's Over".

Can anyone post some of the highlights (lowlights) from the article? I can't get my online subscription to work this morning.

In the article, it seemed that the Bottle District may still atract a larger developer or multiple partners to work with HRI . . . maybe I'm just trying really hard to be optimistic. There wasn't any reason given for Ghazi no longer being involved - presumably they weren't able to attract the right financing. With that being the overwhelming challenge to a project like this I can't imagine it was 'creative differences.'

stlmizzoutiger wrote:On one recent afternoon (September 10) I saw a lot going on at the Bottle District. There was a large construction crew wearing professional looking construction gear and there were several late model pickup trucks at the Bottle District construction site. Then I realized that the construction crew was really Rams fans wearing similar colors and the pickup trucks were being used for tailgating rather than construction purposes...and I thought I was onto something.

DeBaliviere wrote:Rawlings has made opening a restaurant in St. Louis a top priority because their HQ is here. They're considering a site in BPV as well.

I think BPV would be a better fit for the Rawlings restaurant anyway.



I don't hold out much hope for TBD sans Ghazi, but I didn't have much hope for this project in the first place for a variety of reasons. I wonder if we wouldn't be better off with multiple developers on the site anyway, as we may get a plan that's less self-contained than proposals for TBD appeared to be (on paper at least).

ThreeOneFour wrote:I think BPV would be a better fit for the Rawlings restaurant anyway.

I totally agree - they should move their headquarters there as well. They could integrate the restaurant, corporate offices, R&D/product testing (with the help of MLB players), and some sort of cool interactive fan display (showing how baseballs are made, the history of the company, etc.) all in one spot.

DeBaliviere wrote:

ThreeOneFour wrote:I think BPV would be a better fit for the Rawlings restaurant anyway.

I totally agree - they should move their headquarters there as well. They could integrate the restaurant, corporate offices, R&D/product testing (with the help of MLB players), and some sort of cool interactive fan display (showing how baseballs are made, the history of the company, etc.) all in one spot.

I love this idea... wake up Rawlings