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PostApr 21, 2011#1001

“Tax credits are real money, and they do not appear out of thin air, they come from the pockets of taxpayers," Harbin said. "Unless every tax credit is offset by real spending cuts of the same amount, every dollar that the government spends on tax credits has to be raised through higher taxes, debt, or a reduction in services.”
I just don't get the logic. These are tax credits for more than likely new businesses. It wouldn't affect the existing tax base.

And the government isn't "spending" money on tax credits. Its not getting source of revenue (temporarily) for some years from businesses that would not exist otherwise.

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PostApr 21, 2011#1002

On the other hand, it does have a nice quote from Rhonda Hamm-Niebruegee:
We’ve heard it mentioned for a long time that it’s a China hub…it’s really not, it’s an international hub. We focused on the Chinese as our first end, because if we can get them first, then the rest of the world opens up to us.
It's reassuring to know that the group working on this really is focused on the bigger picture. What a novel idea for St. Louis! :mrgreen:

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PostApr 22, 2011#1003

Alex Ihnen wrote:^ I think they have a point to make, but I think they make it rather poorly at times. That quote in the STL Public Radio story is unfortunate.
Considering the potentially transformative impact the bill might have on the regional economy, I think Missourians should be discussing the legislation in much more depth. Moreover, I, too, think entities that point out perceived flaws in the bill have a valuable role to play in this debate. What frustrates me is that the relatively limited coverage of the initiative has seemingly framed this debate as being between certain state politicians and the Show-Me Institute. This has the effect of legitimizing misrepresentations made by the Institute and making it seem as though the position they advance serves the public interest, whereas proponents of the bill are politicians with vested interests and fat-cat developers. Alex, if you temporarily changed the name of the website to something like the Missourah Institute of Economic Development, maybe we could get someone to pay attention to Mr. Degraaf’s cogent analysis. Just a thought. haha
Although I thought this initiative would encounter resistance, I assumed such opposition would be rooted in good old-fashioned xenophobia rather than gross distortions of the bill’s potential economic impact.

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PostApr 22, 2011#1004

^ Excellent point. I'd toyed around with the idea of having the site be a "think tank" of sorts. Maybe we'll start marketing it that way. A couple studies here and there and perhaps we can be a source on issues like this. The city needs a non-ideological source of information and evaluation.

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PostApr 22, 2011#1005

Alex Ihnen wrote:^ Excellent point. I'd toyed around with the idea of having the site be a "think tank" of sorts. Maybe we'll start marketing it that way. A couple studies here and there and perhaps we can be a source on issues like this. The city needs a non-ideological source of information and evaluation.

I would support that idea for sure! +1 if we are voting :wink:

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PostApr 22, 2011#1006

If you are serious about establishing some kind of non-partisan think tank 2.0, I think you are in a really good position to pull it off. I mean, it seems like you already have a number of highly intelligent locals who are eager to contribute, and it looks like the website has attracted a significant following. I think it’s a really good, innovative idea. +1 from me, too. The city would really benefit from something like this.

PostApr 24, 2011#1007

Proponents making their case at the MO Senate public hearing on April 20:

PostApr 26, 2011#1008

The IMF is now predicting that the Chinese economy will be the largest in the world by 2016, which is much earlier than the organization's previous estimates. As the Chinese are now in the process of deciding where in the US to locate a transportation hub, we should be jumping all over this opportunity. Let's not miss the boat on this one!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ss-US.html

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PostApr 26, 2011#1009

Reading Kasarda's Aerotropolis: The Way We'll Live Next, I find myself constantly trying to compare his examples to Lambert and MidAmerica and just end up depressing myself. The successful Aerotropoli are all multi-billion-dollar projects with amazing potential for growth. A new runway and a few freezers is great. A new highway bridge and another dock at the port, meh. Does the cool chain extend to our trains and to Lambert? How many frozen warehouses do we have? Where's the plan to make Producer's Row a loading dock for Shanghai?

Every aerotropolis on record seems to have at least one project similar in size and scope to the Northside Regeneration plan, but the difference is that the billionaires in the other examples are usually doing greenfield development with no strings attached.

I think we have a few interesting advantages that need to be acknowledged and built upon.

1. Our two airports have extra capacity and are not fully land-locked. Lambert is semi-boxed in by highways, which is probably a good thing, and MidAmerica is surrounded by farmland. If one is fully built out, the other can handle the overflow, provided that land is set aside for the future now. We should put them both under one regional authority (Bi-State already has one airport...) and put them both in one masterplan now before the inevitable sprawl consumes the land around them.

2. It's great that the city is between the two airports. Detroit is planning an aerotropolis between its airport and Willow Run, and the distance in between will be entirely suburban. Our urban core is at our halfway point, so we'll have a very different kind of growth. In all cases the warehouse and reloville sorts of sprawl around airports tends to extend down highways, and we've got pre-existing industrial and residential areas on both sides of I-70. Sprawl could tend towards the city, not away from it.

3. Both airports are connected by MetroLink! In quote after quote with CEOs, it seems that access to the airport comes up. Companies like Express Scripts that send their employees all over need to be within a ten minute drive of the airport. What if we had an express train between the two airports with a stop downtown? If all of downtown was within ten minutes of either airport, it'd be a game changer.


4. UMSL's proximity to Lambert is fascinating. There is already a transportation studies program there that works with Lambert, but how much could UMSL really leverage the airport? They've got Express Scripts on campus and the NorthPark area will certainly be an asset, but I bet there's more that can be done. UMSL could play up its academic conference hosting.

5. Can BJC have a role in medical tourism or the national medical conference scene? It is pretty well connected to the airport already.

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PostApr 27, 2011#1010

DaronDierkes wrote:Reading Kasarda's Aerotropolis: The Way We'll Live Next, I find myself constantly trying to compare his examples to Lambert and MidAmerica and just end up depressing myself. The successful Aerotropoli are all multi-billion-dollar projects with amazing potential for growth. A new runway and a few freezers is great. A new highway bridge and another dock at the port, meh. Does the cool chain extend to our trains and to Lambert? How many frozen warehouses do we have? Where's the plan to make Producer's Row a loading dock for Shanghai?

Every aerotropolis on record seems to have at least one project similar in size and scope to the Northside Regeneration plan, but the difference is that the billionaires in the other examples are usually doing greenfield development with no strings attached.

I think we have a few interesting advantages that need to be acknowledged and built upon.

1. Our two airports have extra capacity and are not fully land-locked. Lambert is semi-boxed in by highways, which is probably a good thing, and MidAmerica is surrounded by farmland. If one is fully built out, the other can handle the overflow, provided that land is set aside for the future now. We should put them both under one regional authority (Bi-State already has one airport...) and put them both in one masterplan now before the inevitable sprawl consumes the land around them.

2. It's great that the city is between the two airports. Detroit is planning an aerotropolis between its airport and Willow Run, and the distance in between will be entirely suburban. Our urban core is at our halfway point, so we'll have a very different kind of growth. In all cases the warehouse and reloville sorts of sprawl around airports tends to extend down highways, and we've got pre-existing industrial and residential areas on both sides of I-70. Sprawl could tend towards the city, not away from it.

3. Both airports are connected by MetroLink! In quote after quote with CEOs, it seems that access to the airport comes up. Companies like Express Scripts that send their employees all over need to be within a ten minute drive of the airport. What if we had an express train between the two airports with a stop downtown? If all of downtown was within ten minutes of either airport, it'd be a game changer.


4. UMSL's proximity to Lambert is fascinating. There is already a transportation studies program there that works with Lambert, but how much could UMSL really leverage the airport? They've got Express Scripts on campus and the NorthPark area will certainly be an asset, but I bet there's more that can be done. UMSL could play up its academic conference hosting.

5. Can BJC have a role in medical tourism or the national medical conference scene? It is pretty well connected to the airport already.
That would be something interesting to take a deeper look at. A questionnaire sent out to businesses to gage the use of those interested.

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PostApr 27, 2011#1011

^I think we should have a route for an express train in our 50 year plan, but it's not at all the top regional transportation proirity. A north-south MetroLink line that joined up with the Red line at UMSL or Lambert would have its benefits too.

The three questions I'm curious about are,
a) How short does the commute between the two airports need to be in order for them to operate as multiple terminals within one hub? One example being Gimpo and Incheon airports and the many passengers that change planes by train.
b) How short does the commute between an airport and downtown have to be for a headquarters to be placed there instead of next to the highway next to the airport? The same question extends to hotels and condos.
c) The MetroLink makes the trip between the airports in about an hour with many stops along the way, and the Shanghai Maglev could do it in about ten minutes with very few stops. What advantages and costs come with reducing the commute time?

O'Hare has a lot of great routes, and so does Amtrak at Chicago's Union Station, but riding the train between those two points sucks. The last time I did it, my train stalled for 45 minutes. If we were Chicago, an express train would make a lot of sense. Because we're St. Louis though... we should just consier the conditions under which we could build such a thing and then put it on the shelf until the required conditions are met.

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PostApr 27, 2011#1012

DaronDierkes wrote:Reading Kasarda's Aerotropolis: The Way We'll Live Next, I find myself constantly trying to compare his examples to Lambert and MidAmerica and just end up depressing myself. The successful Aerotropoli are all multi-billion-dollar projects with amazing potential for growth. A new runway and a few freezers is great. A new highway bridge and another dock at the port, meh. Does the cool chain extend to our trains and to Lambert? How many frozen warehouses do we have? Where's the plan to make Producer's Row a loading dock for Shanghai?
The beauty of Lambert is that it has excellent air side facilities and its growth potential is virtually unlimited. The Aerotropolis bill is focused on the facilitation of warehouses, cold-chain facilities and logistics networks, all geared towards getting our produce and other products to Shanghai and beyond.
DaronDierkes wrote:Every aerotropolis on record seems to have at least one project similar in size and scope to the Northside Regeneration plan, but the difference is that the billionaires in the other examples are usually doing greenfield development with no strings attached.

True. We have this opportunity because we were able to connect to the right people in China. If we balk now, others will gladly take the initiative.
I think we have a few interesting advantages that need to be acknowledged and built upon.

1. Our two airports have extra capacity and are not fully land-locked. Lambert is semi-boxed in by highways, which is probably a good thing, and MidAmerica is surrounded by farmland. If one is fully built out, the other can handle the overflow, provided that land is set aside for the future now. We should put them both under one regional authority (Bi-State already has one airport...) and put them both in one masterplan now before the inevitable sprawl consumes the land around them.
Lambert has enormous capacity. 10 years ago 700+ daily passenger flights were operated at Lambert (without the new runway). Currently, the count stops at 250 daily flights. Also, freight flies 24 hours a day. (Did I mention unlimited capacity?)
2. It's great that the city is between the two airports. Detroit is planning an aerotropolis between its airport and Willow Run, and the distance in between will be entirely suburban. Our urban core is at our halfway point, so we'll have a very different kind of growth. In all cases the warehouse and reloville sorts of sprawl around airports tends to extend down highways, and we've got pre-existing industrial and residential areas on both sides of I-70. Sprawl could tend towards the city, not away from it.
See ^
3. Both airports are connected by MetroLink! In quote after quote with CEOs, it seems that access to the airport comes up. Companies like Express Scripts that send their employees all over need to be within a ten minute drive of the airport. What if we had an express train between the two airports with a stop downtown? If all of downtown was within ten minutes of either airport, it'd be a game changer.
I think about a Metrolink Express train every time I go to Lambert. This is a great idea.
4. UMSL's proximity to Lambert is fascinating. There is already a transportation studies program there that works with Lambert, but how much could UMSL really leverage the airport? They've got Express Scripts on campus and the NorthPark area will certainly be an asset, but I bet there's more that can be done. UMSL could play up its academic conference hosting.
The opportunities are certainly there. Both Express Scripts and UMSL are already involved with the cargo hub idea.
5. Can BJC have a role in medical tourism or the national medical conference scene? It is pretty well connected to the airport already.
BJC is paying very close attention as well. Although the focus is on cargo now, future passenger flights are certainly not out of the question. (China Eastern will become part of Delta's Skyteam alliance this year.)

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PostApr 27, 2011#1013


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PostApr 27, 2011#1014

I loved the Emerson exec's quote.

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PostApr 27, 2011#1015

Does anyone the time-line on passing this? I know th House approved it but is it in an open-ended discussion in the Senate?

Also, I've about had it with comments on stltoday. There's still this idea that it gives jobs to China and takes money away from other areas like education etc. There needs to be some sort of media discussion /article about the facts of the tax credit. A lot of these fears people have about the tax credit just aren't true and is a real detriment to a great opportunity.

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PostApr 27, 2011#1016

Frank DeGraaf did a good job in the nextSTL article: http://nextstl.com/transportation/the-a ... -our-money

There's always more to do. Unfortunately, there aren't many neutral parties in this game.

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PostApr 27, 2011#1017

Maybe I missed something, but the most recent PD article didn't seem to do more than lay out the positions of those arguing for more scrutiny of the aerotropolis proposal...I have no problem with legitimate questions of any policy...Tho there is no doubt profit journalism is at play a bit...Controversy always sells more papers, right? Under the headline of "Debate stirs" is something about the near consensus of the business and political establishment around this issue...Some debate......(Opinion sidenote: It's why I prefer public broadcasting news...you still need political filters on, but in the end, the facts are usually fairly clearly aired and intelligently debated)

I stopped reading the PD comments a couple of months ago...I never learned any new insights, never felt a productive conversation could be had, and would always get in a bad mood afterwards...

I really think this proposal will pass...And I think it will be a win for regionalism, public/private partnership, and outstate/urban collaboration...Really, everybody stands to have a real opportunity to win...And typically when you free Americans up to take advantage of opportunity, more good things happen...

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PostApr 27, 2011#1018

let's hit it; let's roll!

Are we still debating this? China will be THE economic powerhouse by 2016. Billions of American dollars are held by the Chinese. St. Louis becomes the funnel by which we get these dollars back? Boom goes the dynamite. The ripple affect of this happening successfully is nose-bleedingly awesome. We need to turn on the faucet and we need it turned right now!

And, I say good for the power players. If you're out there orchestrating this deal, and you hit it out of the park, I hope you're in a situation to profit handsomely. That's America, baby!

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PostApr 27, 2011#1019

I want to be sure to say I'm not opposed to Aerotropolis credits, but I become quite skeptical if the price is a cap on historic tax credits. The historic tax credit is the only advantage the legislature gives historic cores over sprawl and a cap of $75 million just won't cut it when our economy starts to rebound, especially if smaller neighborhood projects are not exempted from the cap. So when the economy rebounds, Saint Louis will be even further behind the suburbs, which benefits from state policies encouraging sprawl.

Yes, there is a potential great return to Aerotropolis, but it is speculative in nature and could easily be another whiff for the region; while historic tax credits already have demonstrated a positive return. I'd like to do both, of course, (i.e. keep current htc as is and Aerotropolis) but that may not be in the cards. What say you all if a choice has to be made?

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PostApr 27, 2011#1020

I'd say go for the Aerotroplis Tax Credit. The potential upside is far greater. Also, I think there is supposed to be an expiration for these tax credits, both aerotropolis and the historic. So we it will always come back to the table to decide if we need more or less.

Now I don't know what cap level for historic tax credits is appropriate. I don't exactly have experience using them. But I'd say that if a developer who has used them before thinks we'll be OK, I think that there's a good chance that we'll be alright.

http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 6cf21.html

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PostApr 27, 2011#1021

RobbyD wrote:Maybe I missed something, but the most recent PD article didn't seem to do more than lay out the positions of those arguing for more scrutiny of the aerotropolis proposal.

You’re right; he doesn’t seem to do much more than lay out the positions of the bills opponents. I wish he would engage in a more probing analysis of the bill
I don’t like how the author begins the article by characterizing the bill as a tax “break” that will require spending. This seems to imply that it will somehow diminish the state’s tax revenue stream by providing corporations with a break from taxes they currently pay. In reality, companies will only receive tax credits to the extent that they contribute to the hub project, and they must clearly demonstrate such contributions in order to qualify for the tax credit. As such, if the project fails and the companies aren’t able to contribute to the hub, then they won’t receive these tax credits. Although the author makes quick reference to this crucial fact (kind of), he buried it in the middle of the article. Rubs me the wrong way.
Furthermore, I don’t really like the whole guilt by association premise. Rather than analyzing the bill like Mr. Degraaf, he devoted 1/3 of the article to talking about Paul Mckee, who isn’t exactly the most popular man in St. Louis. While it might be worth mentioning that he has been involved since the beginning, I think he unduly emphasized Mr. Mckee’s participation in the negotiations. Highlighting his role only serves to unfairly tarnish the initiative.
I can’t remember the last time I felt so passionately about a local issue, which is why I am so sensitive to the way in which the bill has been framed in local publications. Although it’s unfortunate that Post hasn’t been very receptive to the bill, I’m sure the author also cares deeply about the future of the St. Louis region and is not writing such pieces in attempt to garner publicity or push an agenda (other than helping stl). We just have such a tremendous opportunity here; we’re talking about potentially being the gateway to what will be the largest economy in the entire world. Furthermore, I imagine that such connections with China will serve to enrich St. Louis’ culture. This just seems like a no brainer.

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PostApr 27, 2011#1022

^^Would I choose Aerotropolis over Historic Tax Credits...

Do I shoot my wounded cousin to save my whole family? Yes.

This is about defining our region, dare I say the entire state, for the next half century. Thousands upon thousands of jobs, billions of dollars in new development, an inflow of new companies & industries, blue collar & white collar futures that would never have existed beforehand, and the re-elevation of Saint Louis into a global city.

Historic Tax Credits have helped us save and find constructive re-use of our building stock in the City core. And beautifully so. Now, with most of the major buildings Downtown rehabbed, HTC focus will go to individual residences. With this transition, and with the State's economy in the mire, we're going to see HTCs scaled back without regard to Aerotropolis, except as political "smoke & mirror" construct; right now, I'm personally just happy that we've had them this long.

So the cuts to the Historic Tax Credits are coming anyway; thank Jay Nixon and the Out-Staters for that.

Meanwhile, we all have known for a long time that StL is the heart of the state's economy; the last state-wide economic development plan is a virtual copy of an eleven year old plan conducted for the RCGA. For the first time in a long time, we may actually see development of the state's economy in a way that best capitalizes on Saint Louis being the modern/urban and business hub of the state. Jeff City and out-state is finally realizing that without Saint Louis and the City's economy, MO's economy is sunk.

Here, we have proactive investment into a developing, innate industry cluster. Transportation & Logistics, after all, is what the City and the entire State are known for: the Gateway to the West, the Pony Express, etc. Now, we're taking our culture for exploration and long-distance business across the Pacific.

What do I see in the future?
- The Mark Twain Highway along I-70, between Lambert and Downtown Saint Louis, will start to drive more like the Kennedy Expressway between O'Hare and Downtown Chicago; ditto for down 170 to Clayton.
- With an airport hub adjacent to both Downtown and Clayton, we may actually realize a sincere competitive advantage as a city & region with two central business districts.
- North City will have jobs, new housing, new sewers (that aren't 100+ years old and made of wood!), new public transport, and new residents living with the ones still there, all funded by investment into the project.
- Lambert will be surrounded by new buildings full of new jobs.
- So will the former auto plants, which'll be constructively re-used with redevelopment funding from this tax credit / investment program.
- We're gonna need new dedicated drives from Lambert to the highways for all the trucks that'll be going through.
- Will Daron get his Maglev to Mascoutah via Downtown? No better chance than this.
- Direct flights from Lambert to a rotating selection of Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Chengdu, Shenzen, Chongqing, Wuhan, Harbin, and Tianjin.
- As we prove Lambert to be a sustainable place for such flights, we can better welcome in commerce with South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia ... India ... Russia ... and especially Brazil, who will soon be counter-party to commerce for about all of these countries.
- Domestic companies will flow into the area to capitalize on the point-of-contact with China and beyond, bringing in jobs, investment, and revenues.

It's been mentioned many times here before that the future of the global economy is in China, that the center of international commerce will once again be along the Silk Road. If we choose to sit out on this, then we are actively denying ourselves food. If we deny ourselves the chance to engage in commerce, then we are surrendering our children's employment. If we are too scared to invest in our future, then we have no logic or wisdom in our heads.

Mindset:
This is not subsidy.
This is Investment.
This is Saint Louis, and Missouri, having the guts to determine our own future.
Now, let's put our "money" where our mouth is.
And let's show the world we still have a brain, and a pair.


Roger: Would you be open to Aerotropolis if it meant HTCs would be scaled back for a couple years (which'll happen no matter what), then returning to build them up a few years later when MO's economy is flush with cash? I'm pretty sure $75M/Y will sustain the remaining Downtown building stock for a bit; afterwards, we all can dive back into HTCs. After all, I want to see the Alverne constructively rebuilt as much as anyone does.

But right now, I'd sell the Cardinals to the North Side of Chicago to get this deal done.

Addendum: A "Detroit-style ad" like Chrysler had?
This is it. We're the Gateway City.

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PostApr 27, 2011#1023

^^^I was going to post the same article.

Look, the net positive affect of the Historic Tax Credits is no where near the net positive affect of the China Hub. Furthermore, and the article only briefly touches on this, we're quickly approaching a capitulation of the effectivity of the Historic Tax Credit in St. Louis. The housing market is weak, there is ample supply of residential in the City, and demand to build in the city doesn't go away if the Tax credit is reduced. There is a ceiling on the pull from trendy lofts, parking garages, movie theaters, downtown Pi locations, etc. We need jobs, we need new businesses, we need incentives for undergrads out of Wash U and SLU to put down roots in the City. International jobs will do that. More loft apartments? Not so much.

By the way, the HTC should be seen as a litmus test for the potential success of incentivizing the hub.

PostApr 27, 2011#1024

I'm sure this has been discussed before, and I can't believe there isn't more coverage of the topic in the local news, but what about the 800lb Gorilla in the room? How do we stack up against the Windy City? Is it an all or nothing deal? Is it possible St. Louis and Chi city get pieces of the business?

I really can't find much on this topic.

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PostApr 27, 2011#1025

gone corporate wrote:^^Would I choose Aerotropolis over Historic Tax Credits...

Do I shoot my wounded cousin to save my whole family? Yes.

This is about defining our region, dare I say the entire state, for the next half century. Thousands upon thousands of jobs, billions of dollars in new development, an inflow of new companies & industries, blue collar & white collar futures that would never have existed beforehand, and the re-elevation of Saint Louis into a global city.

Thanks for your impassioned response. I guess you've got me sold, but if aerotrolis proves to be nothing in the end and htc is harmed, don't be surprised if I place your head on a wrecking ball as it slams into a historic building torn down for yet another parking lot! [i kid!]

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