That would be interesting to see because many think crime correlates with a bad economy, but it looks to me there wasn't a rise during the last two recessions.innov8ion wrote:Nice charts... Bet it would be instructive to add a second series of unemployment rate. They'd rise and fall similarly.
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Yes, from what I've seen of the last recession the correlation does seem to be overstated. I'd rather see the relationship to weather. From living in KC, St. Louis and Chicago it sure seems the thugs are more active when the weather is unseasonably warm. I've seen several people suggest this as the key reason for Chicago's murder spike this year.quincunx wrote:That would be interesting to see because many think crime correlates with a bad economy, but it looks to me there wasn't a rise during the last two recessions.innov8ion wrote:Nice charts... Bet it would be instructive to add a second series of unemployment rate. They'd rise and fall similarly.
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^I appreciate the graphs stlhistory. After looking at them, it appears as if
crime is down, compared to the past. I still think the fact that we are seeing
crime in places that did not see crime in the past, like Dogtown, makes it seem
worse for long time residents of the City. On the surface, the crimes seem more
violent and many times gun-related. Maybe the news is picking up on these
crimes better, now that the internet is so prevalent. Obviously, in the 90s
that was not as much the case.
RBB mentioned a robbery and shooting in Dutchtown, that did not make the news.
I have several good friends, that are policeman. They've told me on numerous
occasions, that crimes of this nature and worse happen almost every night and
do not get reported on the news. They also say that areas like District 2, see
their fair share of crimes, that never get reported. Crimes that would make
our stomachs turn, to know how close they are to home.
crime is down, compared to the past. I still think the fact that we are seeing
crime in places that did not see crime in the past, like Dogtown, makes it seem
worse for long time residents of the City. On the surface, the crimes seem more
violent and many times gun-related. Maybe the news is picking up on these
crimes better, now that the internet is so prevalent. Obviously, in the 90s
that was not as much the case.
RBB mentioned a robbery and shooting in Dutchtown, that did not make the news.
I have several good friends, that are policeman. They've told me on numerous
occasions, that crimes of this nature and worse happen almost every night and
do not get reported on the news. They also say that areas like District 2, see
their fair share of crimes, that never get reported. Crimes that would make
our stomachs turn, to know how close they are to home.
- 11K
? The murder rate is roughly the same, rape is down and robberies are about the same.
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I don't disagree that the homicide rate of today compared to the early 1970s is not much different. However, the crime rate (index, violent, property, homicide alike) nationally in urban areas rose dramatically during the mid to late 1960s, with St. Louis no exception. I don't think we're going to see a return to late 1950s crime levels anytime soon, so having crime rates today that compare with those of the early 1970s or late 1960s is not necessarily a bad thing. Taken over the very long term, homicide rates were similar or worse during the 1920s to today; the 1930s and 1940s saw declines that bottomed out during the late 1950s, then rose again as stated earlier.Alex Ihnen wrote:? The murder rate is roughly the same, rape is down and robberies are about the same.
Other than that "new normal" of higher crime, there have been three periods of high homicide rates in St. Louis: the late 1970s, early 1990s, and mid-2000s, with the worst period being the 1990s, followed by a few years in the late 1970s, then the mid-2000s (the 1970s and 1990s periods saw upticks throughout the country, with connections to the emergence of violent street gangs and heavy drug trafficking respectively). Why exactly homicide rose and peaked from 2006 to 2010 in St. Louis is unclear to me; perhaps some sort of gang resurgence? Another factor distorting the picture is that the rate has a major increase from 2009 to 2010 due to the steep decline in population (355K to 319K).
This year we're on track for a second consecutive year of sub-40 homicide rates (we would have to exceed 125 homicides for that not to hold true). If that's the case, then we're seeing a return to the levels typically seen between the peak of 1990s crime and the mid-2000s.
What I think is cause for celebration is the low rate of index crime for five years running. From 2007 to 2011 the average index crime rate was the lowest five year rolling average since the period 1966 to 1970 (when crime rose nationally as stated before). Even during the lower homicide rate periods of the 1980s and late 1990s/early 2000s, we haven't seen these low of levels of overall crime. It's of course easy to pull certain crimes and see variance (robbery, rape, homicide, etc.), but the overall crime rate has declined in the city to levels not seen for 45 years.
Ummm, poverty? Maybe the city should stop being a warehouse for the poor and make the county step up? Maybe that would drive down crime? Novel thought....
Maybe if the city made a clear choice to pursue policies that only supported a resident poverty rate of say 20%, in effect saying if you need services and you're outside that 20% threshold, you will have to go elsewhere to obtain them. The county has been a big bully in this respect for the past seventy years, and enough is enough.
Maybe if the city made a clear choice to pursue policies that only supported a resident poverty rate of say 20%, in effect saying if you need services and you're outside that 20% threshold, you will have to go elsewhere to obtain them. The county has been a big bully in this respect for the past seventy years, and enough is enough.
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Maybe poverty is related to the broader issue of criminality, but I'm not sure that poverty is the answer to why homicide rates rose over the period 2005 to 2010 (and then in 2011 and so far this year have fallen). Poverty and economic issues have remained relatively stable in the city since the 1990s (although the percentage of children in poverty has fallen excepting for the recent recession).onecity wrote:Ummm, poverty? Maybe the city should stop being a warehouse for the poor and make the county step up? Maybe that would drive down crime? Novel thought....
2010 Poverty rate for St. Louis - 27.7
2000 Poverty rate for St. Louis - 24.6
1990 Poverty rate for St. Louis - 24.6
2010 Homicide rate for St. Louis - 45.1
2000 Homicide rate for St. Louis - 35.6
1990 Homicide rate for St. Louis - 44.6 (part of the 1990s rise in crime tied to crack cocaine emergence and gang activity resurgence)
For unemployment claims and rate by month from 2008 to present, see
http://www.labor.mo.gov/DES/tool/ui_ben_stats.asp
For 2010 poverty data, see
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/c ... verty.aspx
For 2000 and 1990 poverty data, see http://webarchives.cdlib.org/sw1wp9v27r ... ew=Percent
These two crimes seem to fit the MO of the person who perpetrated the armed robbery against my co-worker's son the other night:
Not good.
-RBB
He took the woman's purse, then shot her once in the face and once in the arm before fleeing to an SUV nearby
Different vehicle, but the general description of the robber is similar and in all three cases the man robbed a random person and then shot the victim after taking money/personal belongings.the robber then shot the man in the side before running to a nearby sport utility vehicle
Not good.
-RBB
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^Seems that a third victim has emerged from the spree robber-shooter. No deaths (yet), but I hope he's caught soon. News was suggesting a drug motive, but I think that's pure speculation at this point. http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crim ... ec3f5.html
At least the burglars on the Hill were caught. The lesson from that is that it's so important for neighbors to be proactive when they hear something. Too often the sound of breaking glass or a gunshot doesn't bring people to look outside their windows or call the police department.
At least the burglars on the Hill were caught. The lesson from that is that it's so important for neighbors to be proactive when they hear something. Too often the sound of breaking glass or a gunshot doesn't bring people to look outside their windows or call the police department.
- 11K
^Apparently another shooting on S. Grand last night - it hasn't hit the news yet and I don't know the circumstances were similar to the others. The victim is apparently a student who was shot during a robbery attempt.
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From the Post-Dispatch:
STL Police Warn of Violent Street Robber
Story: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crim ... ec3f5.html
True coward.
STL Police Warn of Violent Street Robber
Story: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crim ... ec3f5.html
Conflicting reports this morning on KMOX whether or not he has been caught. That said, it's a substantial escalation of violence, not only sticking people up & robbing them, especially women, but then shooting their already victimized target.Police described the gunman as a black man in his 20s, about 6-feet tall who had dreadlocks and wore a dark-colored jacket. He had a semiautomatic handgun and was last seen running north on Spring.
True coward.
they may have arrested him
http://www.kmov.com/news/editors-pick/P ... 44281.html
http://www.ksdk.com/news/article/344590 ... -robberies
http://www.kmov.com/news/editors-pick/P ... 44281.html
http://www.ksdk.com/news/article/344590 ... -robberies
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^PD confirms that they have indeed arrested this POS.
Really wish capital punishment could be extended for certain cases (this being one).
Obviously an extremely horrible individual and a clear danger to society. Should get life in prison. Had already had been convicted of armed robberies twice and was on probation for both. How is that possible? Wouldn't the second one have voided the probation from the first one?
Either way, glad this sub-human is off the streets.
Really wish capital punishment could be extended for certain cases (this being one).
Obviously an extremely horrible individual and a clear danger to society. Should get life in prison. Had already had been convicted of armed robberies twice and was on probation for both. How is that possible? Wouldn't the second one have voided the probation from the first one?
Either way, glad this sub-human is off the streets.
And apparently the person they arrested was in jail the night my coworker's son was shot.
-RBB
-RBB
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Great news, that this subhuman has been caught. I am very upset with the fact that he was even released back on the streets to terrorize innocent people, thanks to our wonderful system. This is the perfect example of POS that should be put to sleep, for good! NO respect for human life! Why should the taxpayers have to house this waste of space. Great job by the SLPD and the local residents.PD confirms that they have indeed arrested this POS
I thought the same thing after hearing the prior offenses on the news last night. How can we, at the grassroot level, as citizens who truly care about our city work to change this? When crimes like these happen, my general feeling is they make the news, people say "thats awful" and then it fades from their memory. By the time it makes it to sentencing, who if anyone from the community is there making sure the city's legal system does the right thing?Obviously an extremely horrible individual and a clear danger to society. Should get life in prison. Had already had been convicted of armed robberies twice and was on probation for both. How is that possible? Wouldn't the second one have voided the probation from the first one?
Have to wonder if there is any non-profit in the STL area that attempts to follow up on cases to make sure the right thing gets done. Ultimately, I can only think the this rests with the community though...
Totally just rambling off the top of my head here so maybe this is already happening, but it'd be really interesting to see neighborhood associations unite, and take a more proactive stance, following up thru the legal proceedings.
If there is an upside in this story, I think it's this:
The very real problems with the system listed above aside, maybe this story can serve as an example to other neighborhoods about how being involved and cooperating with the police can have a positive effect?"People were literally coming out to us in the neighborhood," Stamper said. "It's a pretty diverse area and to have all these people coming out and approaching us spoke of this individual's level of concern to them.
1. I know the Soulard Restoration Group (and a lot of other neighborhood associations) routinely follow up when a violent crime has been perpetrated in the area. Typically, a neighborhood impact statement is given to the judge at sentencing, also anybody who can be present at the sentencing is encouraged to attend. The prosecutor's office has stated that this often has an impact when the judge hands down a sentence.I thought the same thing after hearing the prior offenses on the news last night. How can we, at the grassroot level, as citizens who truly care about our city work to change this? When crimes like these happen, my general feeling is they make the news, people say "thats awful" and then it fades from their memory. By the time it makes it to sentencing, who if anyone from the community is there making sure the city's legal system does the right thing?
Have to wonder if there is any non-profit in the STL area that attempts to follow up on cases to make sure the right thing gets done. Ultimately, I can only think the this rests with the community though...
Totally just rambling off the top of my head here so maybe this is already happening, but it'd be really interesting to see neighborhood associations unite, and take a more proactive stance, following up thru the legal proceedings.
2. At a grassroots level the only thing I can think of, other than encouraging residents to follow up at sentencing, would be to hold judges accountable when they release violent offenders. I'm not very familiar at all with the election and retention process for judges in Missouri, but judges have to be periodically retained right? Most people simply vote to retain a judge or don't cast a vote at all, maybe if people saw a judges sentencing history re: violent offenders they would at least think twice for automatically voting for retention.
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I have been to neighborhood association meetings where this was discussed and police talked about how to do it. Usually there is a neighborhood association representative who keeps tabs and then emails out when the sentencing will be on violent crimes.anybody who can be present at the sentencing is encouraged to attend. The prosecutor's office has stated that this often has an impact when the judge hands down a sentence.
I'd LOVE to see a list of judges who kept letting this half-human get off with small sentences. What judges are the most lenient with sentencing? Does anyone have any idea?
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Any news of a shooting in Tower Grove Park and a home invasion in the neighborhood (Shaw, TGS?)? I of course hear this from my in-laws in St. Charles, and considering I live in the neighborhood and haven't heard one thing about it, I asked where they heard and they said "the news".
This would have been a few days ago, so last weekend maybe. I haven't been able to find anything?
Anybody hear of this?
This would have been a few days ago, so last weekend maybe. I haven't been able to find anything?
Anybody hear of this?
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^Home Invasion in Shaw Neighborhood on DeTonty Street, 3 blocks from the Botanical Gardens
http://www.kmov.com/home/Random-home-in ... 62451.html
It was not a shooting, but a gun was used to hold up the homeowners. The robbers / "home invaders" stole a cell phone and a gun. Freaked out the resident's 3 year old daughter, whose father held her in a corner the whole time as 2 "invaders" in dark hoodies robbed mom and dad.
Bunch of savages out there...
http://www.kmov.com/home/Random-home-in ... 62451.html
It was not a shooting, but a gun was used to hold up the homeowners. The robbers / "home invaders" stole a cell phone and a gun. Freaked out the resident's 3 year old daughter, whose father held her in a corner the whole time as 2 "invaders" in dark hoodies robbed mom and dad.
Bunch of savages out there...
If I'm reading Casenet properly, it was Judge Heagney that placed him on probation.I'd LOVE to see a list of judges who kept letting this half-human get off with small sentences. What judges are the most lenient with sentencing? Does anyone have any idea?
The Missouri Bar maintains a judicial evaluation site, http://www.showmecourts.org/ Only one judge, Judge Dale Hood, is recommended for recall.
The evaluations are focused on the judge's competence and courtroom demeanor, rather than their sentencing history, which makes sense since their aim is to provide an impartial resource.