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PostNov 22, 2010#1551

We're #1! (Again!)
St. Louis Tops List of Most Dangerous U.S. Cities

TRENTON, New Jersey -- A national study finds St. Louis overtook Camden, New Jersey, as America's most dangerous city in 2009.

The study released Sunday by CQ Press found St. Louis had 2,070.1 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, compared with a national average of 429.4. That helped St. Louis beat out Camden, which topped last year's list and was the most dangerous city for 2003 and 2004.

Detroit, Flint, Michigan, and Oakland, California, rounded out the top five.


Read more...
I'm sure the people of Camden, Detroit, and Flint are delighted. Feel free to discuss...

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PostNov 22, 2010#1552

The CQ Press rankings, formerly Morgan Quitno, have been so discredited that I don't see very many news agencies picking up the story this year. Only AP and KMOX.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2 ... ings-Bogus

The CQ Press statisticians repeatedly make the error of assuming all cities (politically bounded areas) are the same, independent of their larger metro areas. They assume it is valid to rank averages in a sprawling city like Houson and its suburbs against averages in high traffic/low population metro core cities like St. Louis. Their statisticians are not exactly Ranken material.

The Forbes full metro area crime rankings, or the neighborhoodscout.com crime rankings at the individual neighborhoods are more credible. Differences within a metro area overwhelm differences between metro areas.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1553

^I graduated from UGA and so read the Atlanta paper daily to keep up with the Georgia Bulldogs. Front page link had 'St. Louis most dangerous city.' While the story points out the controversy of the findings in paragraph 3 or so, the headline can't be taken back. Papers are for-profit organizations, right? Guess a good controversy gets hits, and down in the ATL, the fact Atlanta isn't #1 is good for local egos.

This story is a HUGE problem in my eyes. The only news ppl in growing Atlanta or elsewhere read about St. Louis is sports related or a very rare Arch travel story and a crime headline. (Oh, there was a story about Chick-Fil-A expanding in the St. Louis area. Yay! Theyll be one on SLU campus I believe.)

In my mind there is a serious problem of perception becoming the reality for most who have never been to the Lou.

If I were mayor, I, literally, would come up with a one-page, graphic oriented rebuttal of the high crime perception. And I would make sure this page was on top of literally every coorespondence, letter or mailing out of City Hall, the CVC, any recruitment effort, etc. Something that leads with, "Crime exists in St. Louis. But is it really as bad as they say?" And go from there.

We've got to grab this issue by the throat in the arena of public opinion IN ADDITION TO continuing to take steps to reduce crime across the board.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1554

gary kreie wrote:The CQ Press rankings, formerly Morgan Quitno, have been so discredited that I don't see very many news agencies picking up the story this year. Only AP and KMOX.
Well, the link I provided was the brief AP story picked up by foxnews.com, although I suppose we could debate whether the Fox News Channel is a reliable news source. :lol:

We've discussed these goofy Morgan Quitno/CQ Press rankings before until we were blue in the face. Nothing has really changed since these rankings have been so widely discredited in recent years. The trouble is, as Robby said, the headline packs a punch, and the explanation about the questionable nature of the ranking is buried under the headline. And the headline alone might be just enough to make some people skeptical about doing business in St. Louis or even coming here for a visit. Yes, it's a bit silly, but Stephen Colbert has taught me never to underestimate the power of fear. :wink:

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PostNov 22, 2010#1555

^Right.

There better be broken lamps and smashed pictures in offices in City Hall in the morning. (From venting leadership.) Then further evaluation of how to best continuing tackling the crime problem IAT the crime perception problem.

I suggest getting on board with using fear to drive public sentiment towards fighting crime. But using honesty and truth!!

If St. Louis could continue to make gains in fighting crime and hammer truth in reporting, it could boomarang back and be source of strength. Stories about how St. Louis is beating crime would certainly grab headlines too.

We have to find out how to turn the issue around in the public eye and leverage it for our benefit. There is NO WAY St. Louis is akin to living in Camden, NJ. Been in both places. And these stories give the impression that city life is the same in both places.

How about gettin Nelly to volunteer to help his hometown and Mr. Berry, too? A campaign that puts the vast majority of St. Louisans, rich and poor, out there for ppl to see, not the violent, hellbent tiny minority that drive headlines and soil our free marketplace.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1556

Perception is reality, unfortunately, but how ignorant can people be to actually take this "news" at face value. That said, I think the city's response in past years has come off as defensive, dismissive and desperate. We have some tough realities to face. Regardless of our small land area, we have to acknowledge the FACT that our urban core has a disproportionately high crime rate relative to other urban cores. We can make excuses all we want, but these rankings do not account for Philly's suburbs, Baltimore's suburbs, Chicago's suburbs, etc either. The simple fact is that Boston, San Francisco and Pittsburgh all have smaller land areas yet have considerably less violent crime than St. Louis City. Our urban core has a high crime rate. Period. We as a city need to OWN it, and dispel the dubious distinction realistically and honestly. Stressing that the majority of violent crime occurs in a few concentrated neighborhoods and most often among people engaged in risky or criminal activity is one way to combat the rankings. I think City Hall should send a press release to all media outlets and include with it a graphic map showing the concentration of actual violent crimes in the metro area, and profiles (criminal records, drug history, relationship to perpetrator) of victims. Include the exact same information for a city whose statistics are diluted by a huge land area encompassing large suburban areas (Kansas City, Houston, etc). Place the two maps side by side and emphasize the city boundaries in each, pointing out how our safe suburbs are excluded from the rankings, while the other city's low-crime suburban areas are included and dilute the crime statistics.

Maybe people are just too lazy or too stupid to care, but I think there's a way to manage negative press.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1557

^ News does carry. The story was picked up on Yahoo this morning, on its front page as part of their revolving headlines.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101122/ap_ ... ous_cities

The story includes a rep from the Mayor's office, saying crime has been steadily dropping for years, and a rep from the StL Police Dept who says the rankings are "irresponsible".

Worst part: The picture they used on the Yahoo main page was of StL in the late-60s during the major reorganizaiton of Downtown when all the post-Arch construction was being primed to begin. While the Arch and Busch II are shown, there are no buildings along Market Street (Hilton, GenAm, BofA complex). No hotels built along 4th, either. There wasn't even a Gateway Mall in the picture, just the last few buildings waiting to come down between 7th & 8th. It looks like the worst of decline.

Note: Picture uncopyable, as part of Yahoo's photo story rotation. But trust me, we look like Dresden 1945.

Addendum: The comments section are infintesimally worse than StLToday.com's, if for no reason than the site's national reach.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1558

I think STLgasm has the right response. When discussing this with people outside the St. Louis area, it is important to emphasize the city/county divide and the fact that most cities are watered down by suburbs and much higher city proper populations. While at the same time emphasizing that crime here is strongly localized like it is in all major cities.

But I do not like that it doesn't seem like the city or the police ever want to acknowledge that crime is unacceptably high. Yes, we are much safer now than we are 15 years ago - and that is great. But it is still...too...high. I know there is not a "reduce crime" button over there on Tucker Blvd, but Mayor Slay and the Alderman need to be out on the front line of making sure the city and their wards are safe places to live. All neighborhoods need a strong block captain system and neighborhood leaders.

I know in poor communities where distrust in the police is high this is a very difficult thing to accomplish. I just remain optimistic that things can change at the community level and that even just a little more effort from the city/police will really start to have a drastic reversal in crime rates. Or not. Either way, I'm here for the long haul.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1559

The story just made Drudge.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1560

On 590 this morning it went something like this...

"St. Louis again tops the most dangrous city in america list, and now on to traffic.."

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PostNov 22, 2010#1561

STLgasm wrote:Regardless of our small land area, we have to acknowledge the FACT that our urban core has a disproportionately high crime rate relative to other urban cores.
I don't think this is true. I know that you noted Boston and other cities, but it simply happens to be that many more wealthy people live in those city's urban cores. As a region, St. Louis has dangerous areas exactly the same as hundreds of other cities. There are 102 more dangerous metros in the nation. Our urban core is just a political boundary. I don't believe that we should be required to own it.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1562

Update: That same poll? It lists El Paso as the "safest" city in the US.
http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_16675219

El Paso, by the ways, is directly across the Rio Grande from Juarez, Mexico. There, the violence is so strong that Congressmen this last week made mention of dispatching soldiers to Juarez to tame down the drug cartels. Juarez is where you hear stories of police captains, politicians, and everyday citizens being assassinated for interfering with the narco-industry, including mass murders and beheadings.

So, is the takeaway for StL supposed to be fortifying the river with the National Guard and a strict vehicle inspection policy? Because I don't think that's a good idea here...


What sucks the most is the probable political impact regarding City-County relations. On one hand, it concretely shows the importance for why "merger" should take place, to improve our collective image nationally because this group uses data for only the urban area, skewing our reputation based upon selective information usage. On the other hand, the County is left even more scared of the City, wanting to freeze it out even further.

From the same article: StL's not too shabby if we're allowed to show a population above half a million:
Rankings
Lowest crime rate*
1. El Paso.
2. Honolulu.
3. New York.
4. San Jose, Calif.
5. San Diego.

Highest crime rate*
1. Detroit.
2. Baltimore.
3. Memphis, Tenn.
4. Washington.
5. Atlanta.
Source: CQ Press City Crime Rankings 2010-2011.

*Cities with more than 500,000 population.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1563

Alex Ihnen wrote:
STLgasm wrote:Regardless of our small land area, we have to acknowledge the FACT that our urban core has a disproportionately high crime rate relative to other urban cores.
I don't think this is true. I know that you noted Boston and other cities, but it simply happens to be that many more wealthy people live in those city's urban cores. As a region, St. Louis has dangerous areas exactly the same as hundreds of other cities. There are 102 more dangerous metros in the nation. Our urban core is just a political boundary. I don't believe that we should be required to own it.
Alex, I don't completely disagree with you. Perhaps I should have said CENTRAL CITY instead of URBAN CORE, but not acknowledging that St. Louis has a more severe crime problem than cities like Boston, Minneapolis and Portland is rather naive. Sure, when looking at the entire metro area we are pretty middle-of-the-road, but the fact remains that pound for pound, our central city is plagued with a worse crime problem than Pittsburgh, Boston, Seattle, Portland, etc. I don't think that fact can really be refuted. Of course it doesn't mean we're more dangerous, but we do have more than our fair share of rough hoods, and let's face it, the likelihood of getting lost in a bad neighborhood in Minneapolis is a lot less than it would be in St. Louis.

Of course Boston has more wealth in the central city, but that doesn't change the facts. Boston is larger in population than St. Louis, smaller in physical land area, yet St. Louis has considerably more homicides, more assaults, more rapes year after year. Pittsburgh is very close in size to St. Louis, slightly smaller in land area and has a crime rate of about half of St. Louis.

The metro area is average or below average in terms of crime and that point should be made loud and clear. The City of St. Louis has many neighborhoods that are as safe or safer than any major city, and that point should be made as well. But our central city per capita crime rate is higher than Chicago, higher than Boston, higher than Seattle, higher than Minneapolis, higher than Pittsburgh, higher than Philly, higher than New York, higher than Portland. The percentage differences may be negligible for many of these cities, but I do think the presence of crime in St. Louis is inherently more acute here than in a city like Portland, and therefore the notion of "city living" in St. Louis takes on a very different meaning here than it does in Portland or Seattle or Minneapolis.

I don't think I have articulated my point as well as I should have, but hopefully it makes sense.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1564

^ That's fine, but if you pick the most crime-ridden part of any large city you can make the exact same claims. In STL that part lines up (largely) with the city boundary. If Jeff-Vander-Lou would suddenly to become its own municipality STL would appear safer, though it wouldn't be. The inverse is true now, STL appears more dangerous than it is. CQ compares apples and oranges. Many of the murders in Boston, for example, happen across the city line. Does that somehow make it better? Of course not. It's simply not accurate to attempt to compare "central city per capita crime rates" among STL, Minneapolis, Chicago, Philly, Boston, Seattle, etc. Philly's "central city" is much more expansive and diverse than ours. Same for Chicago, etc.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1565

Where are you finding the Chicago statistics? They do not report to the fbi and are left off this list.

I wish we would go that route in the interim.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1566

You're right re: Chicago. There are no comparable statistics. You have to believe if you carve out the worst 350K person area of Chicago that it would rank very near the top.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1567

What pisses me off the most is that it's inevitable that at least some parents out there in other parts of the country will not allow their college students to attend Wash. U. or SLU simply because "St. Louis is dangerous." I wonder how our universities are preparing to handle this from a PR standpoint.

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PostNov 22, 2010#1568

True. I feel like regionally people have a sick joy in putting down the City without recognizing that to 99% of the country, Clayton, Ladue, Ballwin, O'Fallon (both of them) are all St. Louis.

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PostNov 23, 2010#1569

That's fine, but if you pick the most crime-ridden part of any large city you can make the exact same claims. In STL that part lines up (largely) with the city boundary. If Jeff-Vander-Lou would suddenly to become its own municipality STL would appear safer, though it wouldn't be. The inverse is true now, STL appears more dangerous than it is. CQ compares apples and oranges. Many of the murders in Boston, for example, happen across the city line. Does that somehow make it better? Of course not. It's simply not accurate to attempt to compare "central city per capita crime rates" among STL, Minneapolis, Chicago, Philly, Boston, Seattle, etc. Philly's "central city" is much more expansive and diverse than ours. Same for Chicago, etc.
No offense, but it really seems like you're trying hard to explain away the fact that STL city IS more dangerous than other cities its size, in both land area and population. I absolutely agree with STLgasm that "living in the city" means something different in St. Louis than it does elsewhere.

I'm not knocking the city, but at some point we have to own up to the fact that the city can be a dangerous place (like any big city). Explaining everything away with stats and figures doesn't do much for the people in neighborhoods where crime is an everyday reality.

Anyway, weren't we #1 a few years back as well? The City didn't die then, and it'll be fine this time around too.

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PostNov 23, 2010#1570

threeonefour wrote:We're #1! (Again!)
WOO HOO!!! 8)

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PostNov 23, 2010#1571

I really, really hope we are able to land the DNC convention...

America LOVES a comeback story...phoenix rising from the ashes...St. Louis trend lines for ciminal activity are heading in the right direction...I have to believe that steps will be taken to ensure they continue on their current trajectory...

Mayor Giuliani turned the crime story in NYC on its head...He did this by brutally facing the truth in public and private and taking strong measures to try and eliminate crime...the results speak for themselves...When I lived just across the Hudson in Hoboken, NJ for a couple years, my many jaunts into and around Manhattan/Brooklyn/Queens were rarely accompanied by fear...

If that convention comes here, we should beat this story to the punch and lay out there St. Louis' reputation and the ways in which that reputation is justified...Then look the camera in the eye and tick off the facts adn reality and trend lines...Take the position that we don't agree with the implication of the crime rate lists, but that we take the results seriously and have taken steps to do something about them...

And if the job market warms up some in the next year, true positive movement on jobs in addition to initiatives in place to attract more jobs will make compelling news on how a City and area left for dead 20-30 years ago didn't die...at least not yet.

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PostNov 23, 2010#1572

The Central Scrutinizer wrote:
threeonefour wrote:We're #1! (Again!)
WOO HOO!!! 8)
Well, at least those that bought the "brave enough to live in America's most dangerous city" t-shirts can still wear their rags with pride. :wink:

So far on KTVI's website, 59% of poll respondents said the CQ Press findings are fair to St. Louis. Of course, at least 59% of the people visiting KTVI's website are probably hoosiers, as their comments section is no better than STLtoday.com.
Alex Ihnen wrote:I feel like regionally people have a sick joy in putting down the City without recognizing that to 99% of the country, Clayton, Ladue, Ballwin, O'Fallon (both of them) are all St. Louis.
I agree. Although most of the people that do this are too stupid to realize the contradiction, and they probably spend most of their time in mom's basement. So beyond the echo chambers of STLtoday.com, Fox2now.com, and others, they do our region no damage, and people like us probably aren't going to encounter them much if at all anyway.
STLgasm wrote:What pisses me off the most is that it's inevitable that at least some parents out there in other parts of the country will not allow their college students to attend Wash. U. or SLU simply because "St. Louis is dangerous." I wonder how our universities are preparing to handle this from a PR standpoint.
I have heard from a few WU undergrads that this issue has been brought up before. Of course, it's very easy for those that represent WU or SLU to point out the flimsiness of the rankings as well as the FBI's recommendation not to interpret them in the way that CQ Press uses them. Still, I would bet that this influenced the decision making process for some parents and students. But hey, maybe those kids weren't WU or SLU material after all. :wink:

I also know from previous articles that the St. Louis Convention and Visitors Commission has had to address this matter before when St. Louis ranked #1 in the Morgan Quitno findings in 2006. I can't imagine this would have any significant impact on the convention business, but again, it's one more area entity that has to address this stupid list from a PR standpoint. I've also heard people wonder what this will do to St. Louis' chances to land the 2012 Democratic National Convention, but I'd like to think the people planning the DNC have far better things to do than to pay the CQ Press' latest hit job any mind.
STLgasm wrote:Stressing that the majority of violent crime occurs in a few concentrated neighborhoods and most often among people engaged in risky or criminal activity is one way to combat the rankings. I think City Hall should send a press release to all media outlets and include with it a graphic map showing the concentration of actual violent crimes in the metro area, and profiles (criminal records, drug history, relationship to perpetrator) of victims. Include the exact same information for a city whose statistics are diluted by a huge land area encompassing large suburban areas (Kansas City, Houston, etc). Place the two maps side by side and emphasize the city boundaries in each, pointing out how our safe suburbs are excluded from the rankings, while the other city's low-crime suburban areas are included and dilute the crime statistics.
This would have been the best way to handle it. City Hall did a fine job of discrediting CQ Press, as I expected. It isn't all that hard to do anyway. However, I think the mayor's spokespeople would look a bit less disingenuous if they would acknowledge the very high crime rate in some city neighborhoods and discuss the things that the SLMPD is doing to combat crime in these areas, all while pointing out that the vast majority of the city is safe.
Maybe people are just too lazy or too stupid to care, but I think there's a way to manage negative press.
They are. But it never hurts to try to win over hearts and minds anyway, and I think your approach is a bit more thorough and honest than the city's response.

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PostNov 23, 2010#1573

While I don't have a link to a news story corroborating this:

I heard on KMOX this morning a report from the new head of the Saint Louis field office of the FBI. He said that he doesn't believe the reports that Saint Louis is #1 for crime. His primary contentions were that the way some of the information is processed may be incorrect, and that including the County into the equation greatly lowers the crime rate.

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PostNov 23, 2010#1574

Gone Corporate wrote:While I don't have a link to a news story corroborating this:

I heard on KMOX this morning a report from the new head of the Saint Louis field office of the FBI. He said that he doesn't believe the reports that Saint Louis is #1 for crime. His primary contentions were that the way some of the information is processed may be incorrect, and that including the County into the equation greatly lowers the crime rate.
With all due respect, it doesn't matter. The cat's out of the bag. I had two buddies of mine from CHI call me laughing about STL. They were laughing because CHI doesn't even report their crime numbers to the FBI, presumably because they're so bad.

WHY DO WE ?

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PostNov 23, 2010#1575

Wow. 2.5 pages of debating the validity of our ranking as the most dangerous city. Watch that St. Louis Mindset as it has a way of creeping up on you. Where is the 2.5 pages discussing how to address the crime problem? You know, actually fix the problem instead of skewing the data to move us in the ranking?

Furthermore, this forum has this same conversation every year when these stats are released. Creatures of habit we are (Yoda voice)

Fix. The. Crime.

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