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PostFeb 12, 2014#501

wabash wrote:
irock7777 wrote:Sorry the over optimism is nice but sometimes it just is confusing

Hoping im wrong
Agreed. The optimism is admirable, but unrealistic - at least in this decade.
how so?

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PostFeb 12, 2014#502

It took 4 decades+ to bring the CWE to where it is today. And its not like BJC just came on the scene. People who cared about history stayed and re-built a community. IIRC the historic districts were created in the 70s or 80s. Over time wealthier residents were attracted to the neighborhood.

I don't think there is any quick fix for downtown, just the long painstaking process of growing a community of committed citizens. You can plop down a major employer like AT&T and create instant jobs but you can also watch that employer eventually move out to a better opportunity in another State.

In the end its citizens that matter, not corporations. In my opinion at least.

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PostFeb 12, 2014#503

irock7777 wrote:
jstriebel wrote:Why can't it work that way for the city. If people keep moving downtown, jobs will come.
Your right. But didn't people say this 10 years ago when the lofts first sarted showing up. Its 10 years later and we are still loosing jobs downtown.

I just compare whats happening in the west end and whats happening downtown. West end is kicking downtowns butt right now. Im staying down here but the midtown/west end looks to have much more momentum

Maybe its just a lul before these downtown projects get going this year.
I'm more optimistic but try not to get too carried away. First, there have been corporate additions to downtown. From small startups like Lumate and TrackBill moving on from incubators to take some space of their own to established mid-size firms like Anders that have moved people from the suburbs to downtown to additional hirings from some of the big boys, there have been some good things going on... nothing earthshattering like a new HQ employing many hundreds yet, but some good trends to build upon.

Second, I believe we're seeing a greater commitment to downtown from the remaining large corporations. I think it is telling that Laclede Gas and Stifel never seriously entertained leaving downtown. (Also, there simply aren't that many candidates left to relocate to the county!) Third, the Great Recession seems to be further back in the rearview mirror so we should be seeing more corporate hiring in the coming years just in general.... the Saint Louis region has taken longer to get back to pre-recession employment, but we're getting there.

Finally, a decade ago the phenomenon of downtown living was just getting started and was not yet firmly established by the time that the recession hit. Now its broadly seen as the real deal and downtown has become an attractive and lively area in this regard. It has a pulse and interesting office spaces with competitive leasing rates to offer such as Cupples 9 for Osborn and Barr and other creatives. Again, it may be more of the smaller to mid-size firms we see an increasing presence from for the next few years, but I am hopeful that before long even the large corporations led by the West County mindset will see that downtown once again is for them.

My forecast: we've pretty much hit bottom and we'll make some decent progress in the coming years with the extent of recovery largely dependent upon larger economic factors.... and if one or two toppers currently out in the county decide they want to make their mark like Detroit's Dan Gilbert and come back downtown, it could become the place to be for corporations.

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PostFeb 12, 2014#504

Roger, well stated. I would also add few items in why I think downtown is still core and in respects very different in comparing CWE

The amount of public/civic investment downtown is substantial and will be a big part - from Post Office Plaza, to Citygarden, to the Library renovation and now onto the Arch Grounds. Not to mention that Great River Greenways is fully invested in making downtown a linch pin of the trail system from the Trestle, to the riverfront, so on. What is being invested back into downtown is civic and business leaders who have not given up at all.

The hotel market along with convention business has stabilized and improving. Downtown is still has the most rooms, rooms are being brought back and rebranded, LHM made a commitment to Union Station and the fact that Peabody has interest is telling. While I see it not ideal to add a huge number of rooms. I do the possibility of a new hotel at BPV getting financed and built sooner rather than later.

Talking about Connectivity, Downtown connectivity is very different from CWE and what we should expect. Downtown connectivity has been and will always be about the region. Whether it is the new Stan Span giving a direct downtown route via Tucker Ave, Metrolink studies of BRT that all terminate downtown, Amtrak upgrading service to Chicago & KC - 110 mph trains and more frequency to Chicago along with new bilevel cars for both Lincoln and River Runner service. The next big investment will be a rebuilt 22nd interchange and the streetscape related directly to the Northside TIF. I believe you see some TIGER grant applications that will relate directly to downtown connectivity and the St. Louis central corridor streetcar will gain momentum.

To wrap the discussion back to the Arcade, I believe you will see the next big educational commitment to downtown when Webster University announces its big expansion in the Arcade building. Getting SLU law downtown was huge and see a similar move by Webster University, either a business school or international studies, as a very smart move.

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PostFeb 12, 2014#505

Downtown could use a serious Wash-U campus. They are always building new schools, so it's possible that one could end up going Downtown. It would also be fantastic to see some smaller colleges building down there as well.

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PostFeb 12, 2014#506

wabash wrote:
irock7777 wrote:Sorry the over optimism is nice but sometimes it just is confusing

Hoping im wrong
Agreed. The optimism is admirable, but unrealistic - at least in this decade.
At first I thought we were discussing optimism over corporate jobs downtown... my bad. Yeah, adding 1,000 units per year by the end of the decade certainly would be ambitious but not altogether unattainable. Roughly 4 to 5 Arcade-scale projects per year. Let's say at 90% occupancy and 1.5 people/unit, that would be about 1,350 new residents per year. Nice to think about!

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PostFeb 12, 2014#507

We can do residential on that scale, sure. But corporate jobs, no way. We have to hope that we can bring in 1,000+ new residents/year and substitute corporate jobs with campuses like Webster and SLU Law. If we can do that, it will bring about 2,000+ extra people Downtown every year. If we can get a major corporate tenant down there, it would be great. If Downtown could have an extra 15,000+ people by the end of the decade (residents, students, and whatever corporate jobs we can land), then that would be a tremendous improvement.

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PostFeb 12, 2014#508

^ Agree with both.

I really think creative re-use of space such as Arcade that might include the presence of expanded downtown Webster U is a big part of making things happen. Curious if anyone has any additional info to add, it has been quiet lately but would assume that a lot details have to be worked out and agreed upon for a lease that would be more complex. It also helps that a solid developer is behind this.

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PostFeb 12, 2014#509

Does anybody know when this is even supposed to be finished?

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PostFeb 13, 2014#510

It would be great to have the entire Walker School of Business & Technology move to the Arcade. The Tech (Computer Science, Cybersecurity, and IT Management) programs would dove-tail nicely with the burgeoning tech sector downtown. Business would dove-tail well with Stifel, Wells, US Bank, the accounting firms and corporate tenants. Basically this would follow the SLU Law model of placing students within the region's highest density of relevant practitioners, internships, and potential employers.

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PostFeb 21, 2014#511

dredger wrote:irock, ATT has been emptying One Center for years of workers who have either been bought out, telecommuting and/or relocated like my wife. Employees who didn't live downtown and for all practical purposes are not moving downtown. Simply put, they don't need that much space and moving employees to the building over. On top of things, the biggest impact was well over a year ago was ATT selling yellow pages to a private equity group. I Don't think it is nothing new to the developers of Arcade and doubt very much it is the reason for any delays

In addition, same thing is happening to a lot of ATT space. My wife was informed that she her position will become full time telecommuting with no office or cubicle. A week later or so, ATT announced the sale of their big Northern California regional office in San Ramon, CA with very little lease back.
Having spent 10 years with AT&T (until 2009), I wouldn't say that the sale of the Yellow Pages business was the biggest impact to One Bell Center -- the number of mass outsourcings of IT was a far bigger impact. When I started working there in 1998, the building was mostly full... around 2000, they moved a number of suburban STL jobs into the building which made it completely full. By the time I left in 2009, it was shocking how many floors were empty or only partially occupied.

I had not heard about the sale of the San Ramon office. I took a number of trips out there. When talking about the issues with reuse of the building here in STL, I think the challenges there will be even greater.

Greg

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PostFeb 21, 2014#512

Greg. agree. probably should have phrased it differently. I do think the yellow pages was one of the last big groups using the building before the sale to equity firm. Could be mistaken.

We moved in 2009 and can remember my wife literally having a choice of window cubicles and views with multiple empty cubicles around here.

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PostFeb 21, 2014#513

UPDATE

"Woodruff said Dominium will finish demolition and abatement work in the second quarter."

A construction completion date was listed later in the article as "TBD."
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/prin ... m&page=all

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PostMar 01, 2014#514

Any interest in the commercial floors yet?

PostMar 08, 2014#515

Webster is taking over the 1st two floors

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PostMar 08, 2014#516

Knowitall wrote:Webster is taking over the 1st two floors
Cool. Is this official. Any update on construction. I just see finsish of abatement second quarter but no start date. Have they secured financing?

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PostMar 08, 2014#517

Are they moving out of OPO?

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PostMar 08, 2014#518

From what I understand, they aren't moving out of OPO, they're expanding. Can someone confirm this? In addition, they won't be on the first two floors, they will be on the second and third floors. The first floor will be retail.

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PostMar 09, 2014#519

I can confirm that construction bid documents list the project as Arcade Apartments / Webster University. Bids were due a couple months ago... probably being reviewed now.

EDIT: Let me add that the number I've heard is 60,000 s.f. -- which is two floors.

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PostMar 27, 2014#520

Some news about the arcade building. Seems like the plans were staled during a law suit but now things are about to be moving again in the late spring.
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news ... tml?page=2

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PostMar 28, 2014#521

I just just walked by there today and wondered when the #$%& they were going to get moving on this. I hope Barket isn't planning on appealing and delaying things even longer.

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PostMar 28, 2014#522

They need to move it or lose it. I have been eyeing this building as a potential future home!

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PostMar 28, 2014#523

Update from someone in the know :

Problem right now is risk and $. Big issue is finding a way to structure the deal and ownership to comply with IRS for new historical tax credit procedures.

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PostMar 29, 2014#524

Knowitall wrote:Update from someone in the know :

Problem right now is risk and $. Big issue is finding a way to structure the deal and ownership to comply with IRS for new historical tax credit procedures.

small bump in the road or big bump?

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PostMar 29, 2014#525

It's a solvable bump, some creative work with multiple LLCs should solve it

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