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PostDec 05, 2024#401

Debaliviere91 wrote:
Dec 05, 2024
Because systemic racism is not the only reason people today are choosing to live in the suburbs. So if you want to stop the Western migration, you have to address other drivers as well. Don’t take my word for it, talk to people of various races that have made the decision to move out that way.


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What are these "other factors" then? Please explain.

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PostDec 05, 2024#402

No, you’re being disingenuous whether on purpose or by accident. Your post (#392) you say August is calling people who move to the suburbs racist. That is NOT AT ALL what he has been arguing.

Why are you taking claims of systemic racism so personally, Debaliviere?

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PostDec 05, 2024#403

JaneJacobsGhost wrote:No, you’re being disingenuous whether on purpose or by accident. Your post (#392) you say August is calling people who move to the suburbs racist. That is NOT AT ALL what he has been arguing.

Why are you taking claims of systemic racism so personally, Debaliviere?
Who said anything about this being personal to me? I don’t live in the suburbs nor do I want to.

As i said before it’s important to understand why people choose to live in the suburbs to stop the trend. Systemic racism is not the only reason people make that choice.


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PostDec 06, 2024#404

We did it again!

David is always willing to work on stuff i send him 

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PostDec 06, 2024#405


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PostDec 07, 2024#406

At least in my industry, market salary in StL is the first tier below Chicago. Which puts it on the same tier as Minneapolis, Detroit, Nashville, and other metros that are bigger or considered more exciting or affluent, and a tier or two above peers like Milwaukee, Indy, and Cincy.

What are other people’s experiences for how “market” pay is treated in StL?

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PostDec 07, 2024#407

I work in a field that had maybe 80-100 people country wide, the field needs another 100. I usually switch firms every 2 years because it’s easy to get 25-35% increase in pay as other firms get contracts and are desperate for people with experience to lead the work.

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PostDec 12, 2024#408

stlokc wrote:
Dec 05, 2024

The small number that did move at one point from St. Louis County told me they moved because they could get more house for their money. 
Almost everyone I know in st chuck county is there because of this.

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PostDec 12, 2024#409

jshank83 wrote:
stlokc wrote:
Dec 05, 2024

The small number that did move at one point from St. Louis County told me they moved because they could get more house for their money. 
Almost everyone I know in st chuck county is there because of this.
Agreed. St. Louis County and municipalities ran out of developable land and wasn’t aggressive enough in land use reform to build density or redevelop land to meet modern standards.

City offers urban. St. Charles offers suburban. County has to find its niche to add new housing.

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PostDec 12, 2024#410

addxb2 wrote:
Dec 12, 2024
jshank83 wrote:
stlokc wrote:
Dec 05, 2024

The small number that did move at one point from St. Louis County told me they moved because they could get more house for their money. 
Almost everyone I know in st chuck county is there because of this.
Agreed. St. Louis County and municipalities ran out of developable land and wasn’t aggressive enough in land use reform to build density or redevelop land to meet modern standards.

City offers urban. St. Charles offers suburban. County has to find its niche to add new housing.
The inner ring honestly offers urban too - hard not to call U City, Clayton, Richmond Heights/Brentwood and Maplewood urban. Near north and south communities pretty urban also. All these areas see density between 3500-6000/sq mi.

I think the county is prime for 5 over 1 ville. I hate the look of most 5 over 1s but many of the holes in the county would be great for 5 over 1s, especially near metrolink stations. 5 over 1s have proliferated in urban centers all over the country (we have been spared for better or worse) and quite honestly won’t hold up architecturally over time, so I’d prefer the city to work on retaining its existing signature brick structures, warehouse/commercial/vacant conversions (Garcia Properties make great examples), new 10+ story retro and modern risers and new row home/townhome construction (like the recent proposals in Soulard).

So I think the county is the perfect fit for construction like “The James” in Kirkwood or “Mansions on the Plaza” north of Clayton or the new construction going up on the Delmar Loop. If done with an urban mindset and TOD is a priority, these could be amazing for the attractiveness of the county.

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PostDec 12, 2024#411

I agree. The county just needs to find a way to build about 2000 of those units every year.

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PostDec 12, 2024#412

These are just brutal for a county of 1,000,000
IMG_2229.jpeg (197.86KiB)
IMG_2230.jpeg (136.9KiB)

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PostDec 12, 2024#413

delmar2debaliviere2downtown wrote:
Dec 12, 2024
addxb2 wrote:
Dec 12, 2024
jshank83 wrote:
Almost everyone I know in st chuck county is there because of this.
Agreed. St. Louis County and municipalities ran out of developable land and wasn’t aggressive enough in land use reform to build density or redevelop land to meet modern standards.

City offers urban. St. Charles offers suburban. County has to find its niche to add new housing.
The inner ring honestly offers urban too - hard not to call U City, Clayton, Richmond Heights/Brentwood and Maplewood urban. Near north and south communities pretty urban also. All these areas see density between 3500-6000/sq mi.

I think the county is prime for 5 over 1 ville. I hate the look of most 5 over 1s but many of the holes in the county would be great for 5 over 1s, especially near metrolink stations. 5 over 1s have proliferated in urban centers all over the country (we have been spared for better or worse) and quite honestly won’t hold up architecturally over time, so I’d prefer the city to work on retaining its existing signature brick structures, warehouse/commercial/vacant conversions (Garcia Properties make great examples), new 10+ story retro and modern risers and new row home/townhome construction (like the recent proposals in Soulard).

So I think the county is the perfect fit for construction like “The James” in Kirkwood or “Mansions on the Plaza” north of Clayton or the new construction going up on the Delmar Loop. If done with an urban mindset and TOD is a priority, these could be amazing for the attractiveness of the county.
In normal cities, all of those would be part of the primary city.

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PostDec 12, 2024#414

^ Couldn't agree more with the comments about County's ability and land mass to do all the above.   Think most of us would be on the same page and agree that muni fragmentation has hurt it immensely in recent decades or at least in my opinion..

I would argue city can pretty much offer the same and go one step forward -  Value Engineer N-S to a city only low floor streetcar w no fare and overlay with a future BRT if county wants to go further.  Gives a great opportunity to rebuild a good portion of north city with a dedicated dense transit oriented corridor along the streetcar & while at same time rebuild the single residential housing a block or two off the corridor.     

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PostDec 21, 2024#415

November 2023 to November 2024
November_MSA.jpg (226.61KiB)

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PostDec 22, 2024#416

I still can't believe the Minneapolis decline.  It has been such the poster child for prosperity for years.

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PostDec 22, 2024#417

At this point, we are consistently posting good job growth. When’s the development following? It went above and beyond for cities like Denver, Austin, Minneapolis when their job growth was similar. We also continue to pace above rusty recovering/growing metros like Cincy, KC, Pittsburgh, Detroit but our population and reputation continues to wane. Our GDP growth is outpacing those metros too. What gives?

Starting to feel like our development activity, population growth is way out of proportion (on the low side) to our economic growth.

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PostDec 22, 2024#418

delmar2debaliviere2downtown wrote:
Dec 22, 2024
At this point, we are consistently posting good job growth. When’s the development following? It went above and beyond for cities like Denver, Austin, Minneapolis when their job growth was similar. We also continue to pace above rusty recovering/growing metros like Cincy, KC, Pittsburgh, Detroit but our population and reputation continues to wane. Our GDP growth is outpacing those metros too. What gives?

Starting to feel like our development activity, population growth is way out of proportion (on the low side) to our economic growth.
It's spread out to an extreme here while the cities you mentioned are only moderately spread out. Also, our population data is wrong. We'll suddenly add like 10-15k in 2030.

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PostDec 22, 2024#419

Narrative is everything. Strong job and GDP growth is fantastic but is only a peace of the puzzle. We need to continue tackling crime, improving our downtown, and then actually post some population gains. Only then will the worm have turned, albiet it's definitely in the process of turning

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PostDec 22, 2024#420

STL fell farther and/or took longer to recover than other cities. KC is an example where they are not growing as quickly as STL this past year but on the 2019-2024 timeline have 1% greater employment growth than STL (4.3% vs 3.3%). STL will need to stay elevated to catch up to some of these other metros that recovered faster.

For their part, STL economic development groups are advertising the higher numbers!

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PostDec 22, 2024#421

ldai_phs wrote:
Dec 22, 2024
STL fell farther and/or took longer to recover than other cities. KC is an example where they are not growing as quickly as STL this past year but on the 2019-2024 timeline have 1% greater employment growth than STL (4.3% vs 3.3%).  STL will need to stay elevated to catch up to some of these other metros that recovered faster.

For their part, STL economic development groups are advertising the higher numbers!
I have a table for this as well. From my perspective, St. Louis is performing well to peers in recovery. Peers have performed in two groups. Recovered is any peer region between 100% and ~105% of their November 2019 employment. This includes Denver, Kansas City, Louisville, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Columbus. Unrecovered is any peer region below 100% of their November 2019 employment. This includes Detroit, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Baltimore, and Milwaukee. Superstar outliers include Charlotte and Indianapolis. 

In a chart that ranges 97.61% to 120.38%, the difference of STL (103.27%) and KC (104.33%) isn't compelling for either market. 


COVID_Recovery_November.jpg (250.1KiB)

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PostDec 22, 2024#422

addxb2 wrote:
ldai_phs wrote:
Dec 22, 2024
STL fell farther and/or took longer to recover than other cities. KC is an example where they are not growing as quickly as STL this past year but on the 2019-2024 timeline have 1% greater employment growth than STL (4.3% vs 3.3%).  STL will need to stay elevated to catch up to some of these other metros that recovered faster.

For their part, STL economic development groups are advertising the higher numbers!
I have a table for this as well. From my perspective, St. Louis is performing well to peers in recovery. Peers have performed in two groups. Recovered is any peer region between 100% and ~105% of their November 2019 employment. This includes Denver, Kansas City, Louisville, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Columbus. Unrecovered is any peer region below 100% of their November 2019 employment. This includes Detroit, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Baltimore, and Milwaukee. Superstar outliers include Charlotte and Indianapolis. 

In a chart that ranges 97.61% to 120.38%, the difference of STL (103.27%) and KC (104.33%) isn't compelling for either market. 


COVID_Recovery_November.jpg
Totally agree. KC was just the only one I had off the top of my head to demonstrate the point that STL has a ways to go (ie. needs to keep the current pace).

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PostDec 22, 2024#423

STL has added 47,000 vs KC's 48,000

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PostDec 23, 2024#424

That chart goes well with this one,  speaks more to quality of jobs and the pay of existing

In 2019, people here we making $2000 more then KC and now it’s $5,500
IMG_5022.jpeg (256.36KiB)

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PostDec 23, 2024#425

dbInSouthCity wrote:
Dec 23, 2024
That chart goes well with this one,  speaks more to quality of jobs and the pay of existing

In 2019, people here we making $2000 more then KC and now it’s $5,500
While being the cheapest COL besides Memphis probably? Though, again with these type of incomes it is appalling we aren’t seeing more investment into “luxury” towers and complexes or just more development period than peers.

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