This is very useful, thank you for sharing!addxb2 wrote: ↑Dec 22, 2024I have a table for this as well. From my perspective, St. Louis is performing well to peers in recovery. Peers have performed in two groups. Recovered is any peer region between 100% and ~105% of their November 2019 employment. This includes Denver, Kansas City, Louisville, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Columbus. Unrecovered is any peer region below 100% of their November 2019 employment. This includes Detroit, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Baltimore, and Milwaukee. Superstar outliers include Charlotte and Indianapolis.ldai_phs wrote: ↑Dec 22, 2024STL fell farther and/or took longer to recover than other cities. KC is an example where they are not growing as quickly as STL this past year but on the 2019-2024 timeline have 1% greater employment growth than STL (4.3% vs 3.3%). STL will need to stay elevated to catch up to some of these other metros that recovered faster.
For their part, STL economic development groups are advertising the higher numbers!
In a chart that ranges 97.61% to 120.38%, the difference of STL (103.27%) and KC (104.33%) isn't compelling for either market.
COVID_Recovery_November.jpg
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Before I post the results, a little conversation starter…
What percent of employment in the St. Louis MSA was in St. Louis County + St. Louis City in 2014?
What percent of employment in the St. Louis MSA was in St. Louis County + St. Louis City in 2024?
What percent of employment in the St. Louis MSA was in St. Louis County + St. Louis City in 2014?
What percent of employment in the St. Louis MSA was in St. Louis County + St. Louis City in 2024?
This is a bit different because its full and part time jobs and not entire MSA
Share of MSA's employment located in St. Louis County + City of St. Louis.
The 2008 recession was the inflection point for the region.
The 2008 recession was the inflection point for the region.
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I’m sure one of the real estate bros on here will give an inadequate explanation.delmar2debaliviere2downtown wrote: ↑Dec 23, 2024While being the cheapest COL besides Memphis probably? Though, again with these type of incomes it is appalling we aren’t seeing more investment into “luxury” towers and complexes or just more development period than peers.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Dec 23, 2024That chart goes well with this one, speaks more to quality of jobs and the pay of existing
In 2019, people here we making $2000 more then KC and now it’s $5,500
Despite our success St. Louis has terrible vibes because people in St. Louis loathe St. Louis. It will take out of town developers to turn the tide. Wish the city would prioritize out of town developers (maybe they do).
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I guess I’ll post this here. I also remember in 1980 we were the 40th largest metro in the world.
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Seattle was better situated to succeed in a globalized, tech based world. It also helps that Seattle has no large historic black population to speak of which means Seattle doesn’t have nearly as many social/economic barriers to development to overcome.
Not to mention Seattle was already a boomtown by 1990 and experiencing powerful economic tailwinds long before 1990.
The same post could have been made about Pitt, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Denver.
Not to mention Seattle was already a boomtown by 1990 and experiencing powerful economic tailwinds long before 1990.
The same post could have been made about Pitt, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Denver.
What’s the scuttlebutt addxb2?
November is the latest data available! December should come closer to end of January. February and March will be important as BLS adjust numbers from previous years.
We’ve been hurt and boosted by adjustments in the past. I have no idea what to expect.
We’ve been hurt and boosted by adjustments in the past. I have no idea what to expect.
Some of the loathing just comes from STL refusing to adapt on any sort of scale culturally. It also helps Seattle had Microsoft and other large tech companies where STL had it’s corporate sector hollowed out with AT&T leaving, McDonnell Douglas buying Boeing with Boeing’s money but parking their HQ in Chicago over either STL or Seattle. Difference is Seattle had all the other businesses to make up for Boeing not having corporate there. Also state leaders, for running on being friendly to big corporations, making very few enticements for companies to move here. No effort made to bring Boeing in after they left Chicago when they ended up moving to DC suburbs near the Pentagon.JaneJacobsGhost wrote:I’m sure one of the real estate bros on here will give an inadequate explanation.delmar2debaliviere2downtown wrote: ↑Dec 23, 2024While being the cheapest COL besides Memphis probably? Though, again with these type of incomes it is appalling we aren’t seeing more investment into “luxury” towers and complexes or just more development period than peers.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Dec 23, 2024That chart goes well with this one, speaks more to quality of jobs and the pay of existing
In 2019, people here we making $2000 more then KC and now it’s $5,500
Despite our success St. Louis has terrible vibes because people in St. Louis loathe St. Louis. It will take out of town developers to turn the tide. Wish the city would prioritize out of town developers (maybe they do).
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My uneducated opinion is fragmentation, more so county, has been a huge issue for St. Louis region and stumbling block. City isn't big enough in terms of population & economy to be an effective city/county entity on the national scale or say to compete against the top 20 metros and maybe even top 40 metros. The county itself has way too many muni's. So say from an infrastructure part you end up with Lambert being behind the curve and metrolink expansion stalling. Heck, most regions would have had cross county extension well in place in now instead of a stub line ending at a parking lot in Shrewsbury and staying that way for decades. Heck, can't even get a decent TOD project in county.
But Fraydog brings up another good point. Cities handed out subsidies like candy to corporations. Their is more then one reason Dorsey/Twitter was HQ in San Fran on Market Street in its heyday. Tech Talent one thing the other was they were given a lot of subsidies to be in San Fran and no different than why a lot of companies were glad to move employees to Houston, Dallas and Austin.
But Fraydog brings up another good point. Cities handed out subsidies like candy to corporations. Their is more then one reason Dorsey/Twitter was HQ in San Fran on Market Street in its heyday. Tech Talent one thing the other was they were given a lot of subsidies to be in San Fran and no different than why a lot of companies were glad to move employees to Houston, Dallas and Austin.
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State GOP doesn’t even lie about being business friendly anymore.
Also helps that Seattle has a prestigious, 60K student public research university in town. Would really help our cause if one of our billionaires decided to make UMSL into something like UMKC. But they’re al content to keep wasting money on WashU.
Also helps that Seattle has a prestigious, 60K student public research university in town. Would really help our cause if one of our billionaires decided to make UMSL into something like UMKC. But they’re al content to keep wasting money on WashU.
I’m not opposed to subsidies if it pencils out for the taxpayer. I’m an advocate of the City using its massive budget surplus to simply start buying employers from the burbs. If GSL will match funds (even if only up to a certain amount) the city may be able to clean up.dredger wrote: ↑Jan 11, 2025My uneducated opinion is fragmentation, more so county, has been a huge issue for St. Louis region and stumbling block. City isn't big enough in terms of population & economy to be an effective city/county entity on the national scale or say to compete against the top 20 metros and maybe even top 40 metros. The county itself has way too many muni's. So say from an infrastructure part you end up with Lambert being behind the curve and metrolink expansion stalling. Heck, most regions would have had cross county extension well in place in now instead of a stub line ending at a parking lot in Shrewsbury and staying that way for decades. Heck, can't even get a decent TOD project in county.
But Fraydog brings up another good point. Cities handed out subsidies like candy to corporations. Their is more then one reason Dorsey/Twitter was HQ in San Fran on Market Street in its heyday. Tech Talent one thing the other was they were given a lot of subsidies to be in San Fran and no different than why a lot of companies were glad to move employees to Houston, Dallas and Austin.
I don’t see any harm in giving GSL $5MM in the next budget to try to poach employers. If it’s successful, the City can allocate additional funds. If it flops just cancel the program.
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^ The lack of generous city subsidies has not been an issue as we have given that out via tax abatement (property and occasionally earnings/payroll) and TIF. But I don't think we've really had any significant direct cash/grant incentive program before, which could be interesting if structured properly. And I agree it probably would work best with moves from elsewhere within the metro as I doubt it would do much for national companies, which mostly look at workforce as the main location factor.
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Totally agree. I’m envisioning a straight up cash to balance sheet injection provided the employer meets certain conditions and with a claw back feature if city employment numbers are not maintained for a minimum number of years. GSL’s real estate arm could coordinate the commercial property aspect.
^&^^ Have mixed thoughts on incentives, at end of day you still have to find revenues to pay for the services and quality of life, but region is not competing on a fair playing field and will never will be on top of a very convoluted tax regime. So I tend to think that incentives on growing employees is not a bad thing and you can structure it around where they live as well.
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Could include other parameters to make it easier to administrate like minimum of 25 or 50 employees (or some combination minimum employment and minimum wages).
Allow existing employers to participate if they can demonstrate they are moving existing jobs outside the city into the city.
Allow existing employers to participate if they can demonstrate they are moving existing jobs outside the city into the city.
Getting off topic but as noted St. Louis has a whole does have some great institutions and medical facilities. My son graduated high school out in Cali last year with a few of his classmates going to Wash U this year. The issue that I believe most agree with is the city and county don't have as much leverage as other cities have with respective institutions.
I think of Wash U property along/next to Delmar Ave metrolink station as an example that should revert back to private tax paying property as it is an ideal location for some dense mixed use development between two large job centers in DT Clayton & whole Barnes Jewish/Wash U/Cortex with great amenities along Delmar Loop, access to Forest Park and transit access to the airport/downtown/all the major pro sport teams. Just on more missing piece where a big strong non profit institution could also do more harm than good unless there is a public entity with some muscle to give some things up here and there.
I think of Wash U property along/next to Delmar Ave metrolink station as an example that should revert back to private tax paying property as it is an ideal location for some dense mixed use development between two large job centers in DT Clayton & whole Barnes Jewish/Wash U/Cortex with great amenities along Delmar Loop, access to Forest Park and transit access to the airport/downtown/all the major pro sport teams. Just on more missing piece where a big strong non profit institution could also do more harm than good unless there is a public entity with some muscle to give some things up here and there.
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This may be just about the least of it. If our largest hospitals were in the Chicagoland, here’s how they would rank by # of beds:dredger wrote: ↑Jan 11, 2025Getting off topic but as noted St. Louis has a whole does have some great institutions and medical facilities.
1. BJC (by more than 300 beds; if you consider Children’s to be the same hospital, it’s about 700 beds larger)
2. Northwestern
3. Mercy West
4. Advocate Christ (Oaklawn)
5. Mercy South
6. UChicago
7. Rush
8. Evanston Hospital
9. SSM St. Mary’s
10. SSM Bridgeton
https://www.ahd.com/states/hospital_IL.html
https://www.ahd.com/states/hospital_MO.html
Wow! That's crazy.JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑Jan 12, 2025This may be just about the least of it. If our largest hospitals were in the Chicagoland, here’s how they would rank by # of beds:dredger wrote: ↑Jan 11, 2025Getting off topic but as noted St. Louis has a whole does have some great institutions and medical facilities.
1. BJC (by more than 300 beds; if you consider Children’s to be the same hospital, it’s about 700 beds larger)
2. Northwestern
3. Mercy West
4. Advocate Christ (Oaklawn)
5. Mercy South
6. UChicago
7. Rush
8. Evanston Hospital
9. SSM St. Mary’s
10. SSM Bridgeton
https://www.ahd.com/states/hospital_IL.html
https://www.ahd.com/states/hospital_MO.html
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We’re a medical hub. Whenever anyone suggests StL is dead or dying (we’ve all heard it) remind them of this fact. Medical hubs don’t die.
One of the big what ifs I have is “what if STL had built a new airport instead of pumping money into a useless 29L”?dredger wrote:My uneducated opinion is fragmentation, more so county, has been a huge issue for St. Louis region and stumbling block. City isn't big enough in terms of population & economy to be an effective city/county entity on the national scale or say to compete against the top 20 metros and maybe even top 40 metros. The county itself has way too many muni's. So say from an infrastructure part you end up with Lambert being behind the curve and metrolink expansion stalling. Heck, most regions would have had cross county extension well in place in now instead of a stub line ending at a parking lot in Shrewsbury and staying that way for decades. Heck, can't even get a decent TOD project in county.
But Fraydog brings up another good point. Cities handed out subsidies like candy to corporations. Their is more then one reason Dorsey/Twitter was HQ in San Fran on Market Street in its heyday. Tech Talent one thing the other was they were given a lot of subsidies to be in San Fran and no different than why a lot of companies were glad to move employees to Houston, Dallas and Austin.
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It’s not a useless runway. I land/takeoff from it all the time. It was just built too early. We’ll soon have a new airport AND 29L.
The lack of population growth is the biggest issue. A national developer and the institutional equity that backs them needs as much certainty as possible that a project will be successful. For a project to be successful, it needs to achieve projected rents which will in turn allow for a successful exit (typically a sale). Metro areas with population growth have more projects and as a result more data points to substantiate which provides certainty.JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑Dec 24, 2024I’m sure one of the real estate bros on here will give an inadequate explanation.delmar2debaliviere2downtown wrote: ↑Dec 23, 2024While being the cheapest COL besides Memphis probably? Though, again with these type of incomes it is appalling we aren’t seeing more investment into “luxury” towers and complexes or just more development period than peers.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Dec 23, 2024That chart goes well with this one, speaks more to quality of jobs and the pay of existing
In 2019, people here we making $2000 more then KC and now it’s $5,500
Despite our success St. Louis has terrible vibes because people in St. Louis loathe St. Louis. It will take out of town developers to turn the tide. Wish the city would prioritize out of town developers (maybe they do).