^Agreed. We are getting dangerously close to a stagflationary economy. Look for Headline CPI to rise 75bps by summer if the Strait stays closed another couple weeks. Between this inflation machine and the current no-hire, no-fire market for workers, I cannot see the FOMC cutting interest rates anytime soon.
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If only someone, anyone, had warned us in Aug, September, and October of 2024, that these policies would have a stagflationary effect……..
We are very much in a “fire” labor market. Unemployment is up 0.4% since Trump took office despite significant declines in labor force participation over the same period thereby softening the impact on the unemployment rate.gone corporate wrote: ↑6:02 PM - Mar 16^Agreed. We are getting dangerously close to a stagflationary economy. Look for Headline CPI to rise 75bps by summer if the Strait stays closed another couple weeks. Between this inflation machine and the current no-hire, no-fire market for workers, I cannot see the FOMC cutting interest rates anytime soon.
Massive layoffs have been announced across industries, especially tech. Most are doing the layoffs in batches which softens the initial unemployment claims numbers. It’s a slow burn but it’s burning
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@JaneJacobsGhost I'd say we're in a no-fire environment for blue collar jobs while seeing growing layoffs for white collar jobs, and with those the end of many linear career paths. You know, where people follow a specific career with what they study in college, then come to the real world and work that job for the rest of their lives until they retire. For many industries and skill sets, AI is replacing those jobs. Best example is computer coding.
Mindset: AI will bring about the first major employment market shakeup that'll take out white collar workers while leaving blue collar workers intact. I'd think we'll see this grow across industries as AI begins to replace more people with automated systems. I'm already seeing Big Tech companies starting to lay off workers just to redirect the cost savings towards new AI fixed investments like corporate data centers and chip inventories. META about to cut 20% of their workforce. Strange times.
Mindset: AI will bring about the first major employment market shakeup that'll take out white collar workers while leaving blue collar workers intact. I'd think we'll see this grow across industries as AI begins to replace more people with automated systems. I'm already seeing Big Tech companies starting to lay off workers just to redirect the cost savings towards new AI fixed investments like corporate data centers and chip inventories. META about to cut 20% of their workforce. Strange times.
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Not sure I can completely agree with your assessment.
Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists.
Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth.
This all comes from the FRED
Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists.
Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth.
This all comes from the FRED
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Very interesting... At the risk of going too far off-topic (national vs. regional), I've been watching the employment figures coming in for some time, as part of my job is this research and tabulating it. The past few reports since the government shutdown, especially that Nonfarm Payrolls two months ago, seem off to me. I'm not sure if you follow this stuff, but you certainly seem to know your stuff. Can you give any color on this? Regional, statewide, or national. Thanks
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Hadn’t welding been automated in car manufacturing since the 80s?JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑5:37 PM - Mar 17Not sure I can completely agree with your assessment.
Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists.
Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth.
This all comes from the FRED
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I’ve come to not begin putting stock into an employment publications until there has been at least 1 revision.gone corporate wrote: ↑6:17 PM - Mar 17Very interesting... At the risk of going too far off-topic (national vs. regional), I've been watching the employment figures coming in for some time, as part of my job is this research and tabulating it. The past few reports since the government shutdown, especially that Nonfarm Payrolls two months ago, seem off to me. I'm not sure if you follow this stuff, but you certainly seem to know your stuff. Can you give any color on this? Regional, statewide, or national. Thanks
I do not know anything more than what my undergrad Econ degree taught and what is openly accessible from FRED and BLS.
Too DblnSouthCity point,dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑6:24 PM - Mar 17Hadn’t welding been automated in car manufacturing since the 80s?JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑5:37 PM - Mar 17Not sure I can completely agree with your assessment.
Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists.
Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth.
This all comes from the FRED
I don't think people realize how much automation and robotics is becoming huge part of manufacturing and will only continue to grow. Have to dig but believe Economist had an article that noted how China installed more robots then the world combined in 2024 or maybe last year. The unit production price keeps diving down even with tariffs. On top of it, read a great article/interview with Hyundai new CEO (An American by the way) and how they had to transition to be both a car and a robotic manufacturer.
We simply will not have manufacturer job growth of anything meaningful measure. Production will be measured on who can add more machines and better machines to build our goods/machines.. A few will benefit greatly with the right skill set but not the masses in the political promise of onshoring. My opinion of course.
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I am somewhat happy my early retirement years are nearing; with AI and changing job environments, what jobs are available will be very interesting in the future. I will retire from my full time job within 5 years and hopefully still be able to find an easy, part time job to just give me some mad money while I live off retirement, 401K and eventually social security that I have paid into for 40 years.
"A locally based food dye manufacturer is expanding its north St. Louis operations, part of an up to $250 million investment to produce more natural food dyes. Sensient Food Colors broke ground Monday on what it says is a major expansion at its facility in the JeffVanderLou neighborhood, which is expected to add more than 200 jobs"
"The St. Louis site, at 2515 N. Jefferson Ave., is already the world’s largest food color manufacturing facility, with more than 500,000 square feet, Sensient said."
"The new project will add about 28,800 square feet of space dedicated exclusively to natural color processing and production, as food and beverage manufacturers increasingly move away from artificial dyes in response to consumer demand and legislative action, officials said."
"Sensient's St. Louis facility also is the headquarters for the Sensient Colors Group, including the parent company's U.S. food colors and North American industrial and pharmaceutical color businesses. The North Jefferson plant supplies natural and synthetic color products for a range of industries, including food and beverage, pet food, pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals, cosmetics and personal care products, according to the company. "
"The St. Louis site, at 2515 N. Jefferson Ave., is already the world’s largest food color manufacturing facility, with more than 500,000 square feet, Sensient said."
"The new project will add about 28,800 square feet of space dedicated exclusively to natural color processing and production, as food and beverage manufacturers increasingly move away from artificial dyes in response to consumer demand and legislative action, officials said."
"Sensient's St. Louis facility also is the headquarters for the Sensient Colors Group, including the parent company's U.S. food colors and North American industrial and pharmaceutical color businesses. The North Jefferson plant supplies natural and synthetic color products for a range of industries, including food and beverage, pet food, pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals, cosmetics and personal care products, according to the company. "
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/bus ... 6cad8.html
Nike laying off 172 at St. Charles plant.
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Nike laying off 172 at St. Charles plant.
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Correct. To also quote Jane above and bring them together:dredger wrote: ↑10:18 PM - Mar 17Too DblnSouthCity point,dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑6:24 PM - Mar 17Hadn’t welding been automated in car manufacturing since the 80s?JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑5:37 PM - Mar 17Not sure I can completely agree with your assessment.
Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists.
Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth.
This all comes from the FRED
I don't think people realize how much automation and robotics is becoming huge part of manufacturing and will only continue to grow. Have to dig but believe Economist had an article that noted how China installed more robots then the world combined in 2024 or maybe last year. The unit production price keeps diving down even with tariffs. On top of it, read a great article/interview with Hyundai new CEO (An American by the way) and how they had to transition to be both a car and a robotic manufacturer.
We simply will not have manufacturer job growth of anything meaningful measure. Production will be measured on who can add more machines and better machines to build our goods/machines.. A few will benefit greatly with the right skill set but not the masses in the political promise of onshoring. My opinion of course.
"Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists. Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth."
Those pipefitters, welders, constructions workers, and operating engineers are busy building and running the 95% automated factories producing the machines that will first replace any human labor in "fixed" roles, e.g., truck drivers and assembly line operators, and then replace the "flexible" human labor, e.g., pipefitters, welders, carpenters, etc. The latter requires (probably) humanoid general purpose robots, which aren't yet cost-effective but may be so in the medium-term future. All of which first requires extensive data center build outs on a global scale. Meanwhile, the just-beginning global recession is dampening consumer demand for the residential and non-tech commercial projects that would otherwise employ those blue collar professionals, in part by laying off en masse the white collar professionals who might commission those projects.
Tin foil hat time: This is all going according to the plans laid out by our tech overlords and implemented by their paid stooges at all levels of government. I suggest everyone spend a little time familiarizing themselves with the anti-human ideology animating this bunch. A recent interview with Peter Theil and Ross Douthat (NYT) is a great place to start.
Imagine seeing the state of the economy, seeing what some of these demons want AI to be used for, seeing tens of thousands of people already losing their jobs to AI, hearing the horror stories of what it's doing to those in school, and knowing that literally all of the worst people in the world are super pro-AI....and come to the conclusion that it's a conspiracy that it's anti-human.
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Except in this case, it very much is real and these techbro ghouls are pretty open about their end goals.framer wrote: ↑12:16 AM - May 20Conspiracy theories are fun, but they're not real.
The parallels between the ongoing Tech/AI Revolution and the Industrial Revolution of the 18th and 19th Centuries (where the term "luddites" originated) is striking:
Fear of dehumanization, out-of-control machinery, and the masses facing perpetual unemployment and being at the mercy of a "wealthy elite".
Don't worry, guys; change can be scary, but the world adapts and moves on.
Fear of dehumanization, out-of-control machinery, and the masses facing perpetual unemployment and being at the mercy of a "wealthy elite".
Don't worry, guys; change can be scary, but the world adapts and moves on.
You realize there were violent revolutions and riots caused by the dehumanizing affects of the industrial revolution, in this very country. Is that a conspiracy? What people were worried about literally happened. Just becaude we are mostly on the other side doesn't mean it magically didn't happen.framer wrote:The parallels between the ongoing Tech/AI Revolution and the Industrial Revolution of the 18th and 19th Centuries (where the term "luddites" originated) is striking:
Fear of dehumanization, out-of-control machinery, and the masses facing perpetual unemployment and being at the mercy of a "wealthy elite".
Don't worry, guys; change can be scary, but the world adapts and moves on.
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Bro is in full support of the orphan-crushing machine and will somehow still be shocked when the orphan-crushing machine crushes orphans.
https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/new ... ivate.html
JPMorgan to double the size of its St. Louis workforce to 60 over the next 5 years as part of expansion in St. Louis.
They recently completed a renovation of their office at Centene Plaza B in Clayton.
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JPMorgan to double the size of its St. Louis workforce to 60 over the next 5 years as part of expansion in St. Louis.
They recently completed a renovation of their office at Centene Plaza B in Clayton.
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Fortune 500 2026 includes eight St. Louis based companies, up from 7 last year.addxb2 wrote: ↑Jun 03, 2025Fortune 500 2025 includes 7 St. Louis based companies, up from 6 last year.Seven St. Louis-area companies fell between the top 500 and 1000 ranking this year, down from 10 last year. Arch Resources, ranked at No. 862 last year, is no longer listed because it was acquired in January. Spire, ranked at No. 965 last year, and Belden, ranked at 995 last year, both fell off the Fortune 1000 for 2025.
- No. 23: Centene Corp. (down from No. 22); revenue rose 5.9% to over $163 billion.
- No. 196: Reinsurance Group of America (up from No. 223); revenue jumped 19.1% to $22.1 billion.
- No. 238: Emerson Electric (down from No. 224); revenue fell 4.8% to $17.5 billion.
- No. 260: Edward Jones, listed as Jones Financial (up from No. 303); revenue rose 15.5% to $16.3 billion.
- No. 365: Graybar Electric (up from No. 367); revenue up 5.5% to $11.6 billion.
- No. 477: Post Holdings (up from No. 504 in the Fortune 1000 last year); revenue up $13.3% to $7.9 billion.
- No. 497: Core & Main (up from No. 526 in the Fortune 1000 last year); revenue rose 11% to $7.4 billion.
- No. 505: Ameren Corp. (down from No. 494); revenue rose 1.5% to $7.3 billion.
- No. 546: Olin Corp. (down from No. 521); revenue dropped 4.3% to $6.5 billion.
- No. 582: Stifel Financial (up from No. 634); revenue rose 15.4% to over $5.9 billion.
- No. 750: Peabody Energy (down from No. 646); revenue fell 14.4% to $4.2 billion.
- No. 821: Advantage Solutions (down from No. 717; it was ranked with California companies in 2024, as it moved to St. Louis in early 2024); revenue fell 13.7% to $3.6 billion.
- No. 938: Energizer Holdings (down from No. 896); revenue fell 2.5% to nearly $2.9 billion.
- No. 983: Caleres (down from No. 925); revenue fell 3.4% to $2.7 billion.
Peers Fortune 500 (change from 2024)
Indianapolis: 3 (-)
Nashville: 6 (+1)
Kansas City: 1 (-)
Detroit: 9 (+1)
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 15 (-)
Denver: 8 (-)
St. Louis: 7 (+1)
Cincinnati: 8 (+1)
Columbus: 5 (-)
Milwaukee: 6 (+1)
Phoenix: 9 (-1)
- No. 19: Centene Corp. (up from No. 23)
- No. 193: Reinsurance Group of America (up from No. 196)
- No. 245: Emerson Electric (down from No. 238)
- No. 249: Edward Jones (up from No. 260)
- No. 342: Graybar Electric (down from No. 365)
- No 466: Ameren (up from No. 505)
- No. 479: Post Holdings (down from No. 477)
- No. 495: Core & Main (up from No. 497)
Indianapolis: 3 (-)
Nashville: 6 (-)
Kansas City: 1 (-)
Detroit: 9 (-)
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 16 (+1)
Denver: 7 (-1)
St. Louis: 8 (+1)
Milwaukee: 6 (-)
St. Louis region has 15 in Fortune 1000 which is one more than last year, with the addition of Belden at #997.
How close is Stifel to cracking the F500? They were 582 last year.addxb2 wrote:Fortune 500 2026 includes eight St. Louis based companies, up from 7 last year.addxb2 wrote: ↑Jun 03, 2025Fortune 500 2025 includes 7 St. Louis based companies, up from 6 last year.Seven St. Louis-area companies fell between the top 500 and 1000 ranking this year, down from 10 last year. Arch Resources, ranked at No. 862 last year, is no longer listed because it was acquired in January. Spire, ranked at No. 965 last year, and Belden, ranked at 995 last year, both fell off the Fortune 1000 for 2025.
- No. 23: Centene Corp. (down from No. 22); revenue rose 5.9% to over $163 billion.
- No. 196: Reinsurance Group of America (up from No. 223); revenue jumped 19.1% to $22.1 billion.
- No. 238: Emerson Electric (down from No. 224); revenue fell 4.8% to $17.5 billion.
- No. 260: Edward Jones, listed as Jones Financial (up from No. 303); revenue rose 15.5% to $16.3 billion.
- No. 365: Graybar Electric (up from No. 367); revenue up 5.5% to $11.6 billion.
- No. 477: Post Holdings (up from No. 504 in the Fortune 1000 last year); revenue up $13.3% to $7.9 billion.
- No. 497: Core & Main (up from No. 526 in the Fortune 1000 last year); revenue rose 11% to $7.4 billion.
- No. 505: Ameren Corp. (down from No. 494); revenue rose 1.5% to $7.3 billion.
- No. 546: Olin Corp. (down from No. 521); revenue dropped 4.3% to $6.5 billion.
- No. 582: Stifel Financial (up from No. 634); revenue rose 15.4% to over $5.9 billion.
- No. 750: Peabody Energy (down from No. 646); revenue fell 14.4% to $4.2 billion.
- No. 821: Advantage Solutions (down from No. 717; it was ranked with California companies in 2024, as it moved to St. Louis in early 2024); revenue fell 13.7% to $3.6 billion.
- No. 938: Energizer Holdings (down from No. 896); revenue fell 2.5% to nearly $2.9 billion.
- No. 983: Caleres (down from No. 925); revenue fell 3.4% to $2.7 billion.
Peers Fortune 500 (change from 2024)
Indianapolis: 3 (-)
Nashville: 6 (+1)
Kansas City: 1 (-)
Detroit: 9 (+1)
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 15 (-)
Denver: 8 (-)
St. Louis: 7 (+1)
Cincinnati: 8 (+1)
Columbus: 5 (-)
Milwaukee: 6 (+1)
Phoenix: 9 (-1)Peers Fortune 500 (change from 2025)
- No. 19: Centene Corp. (up from No. 23)
- No. 193: Reinsurance Group of America (up from No. 196)
- No. 245: Emerson Electric (down from No. 238)
- No. 249: Edward Jones (up from No. 260)
- No. 342: Graybar Electric (down from No. 365)
- No 466: Ameren (up from No. 505)
- No. 479: Post Holdings (down from No. 477)
- No. 495: Core & Main (up from No. 497)
Indianapolis: 3 (-)
Nashville: 6 (-)
Kansas City: 1 (-)
Detroit: 9 (-)
Minneapolis-St. Paul: 16 (+1)
Denver: 7 (-1)
St. Louis: 8 (+1)
Milwaukee: 6 (-)
St. Louis region has 15 in Fortune 1000 which is one more than last year, with the addition of Belden at #997.
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They’re about $1b short. Need 7.4 and they’re at 6.4. More realistic leap for them to 500 is through acquisition instead of organic growth