^Agreed. We are getting dangerously close to a stagflationary economy. Look for Headline CPI to rise 75bps by summer if the Strait stays closed another couple weeks. Between this inflation machine and the current no-hire, no-fire market for workers, I cannot see the FOMC cutting interest rates anytime soon.
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If only someone, anyone, had warned us in Aug, September, and October of 2024, that these policies would have a stagflationary effect……..
We are very much in a “fire” labor market. Unemployment is up 0.4% since Trump took office despite significant declines in labor force participation over the same period thereby softening the impact on the unemployment rate.gone corporate wrote: ↑6:02 PM - Mar 16^Agreed. We are getting dangerously close to a stagflationary economy. Look for Headline CPI to rise 75bps by summer if the Strait stays closed another couple weeks. Between this inflation machine and the current no-hire, no-fire market for workers, I cannot see the FOMC cutting interest rates anytime soon.
Massive layoffs have been announced across industries, especially tech. Most are doing the layoffs in batches which softens the initial unemployment claims numbers. It’s a slow burn but it’s burning
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@JaneJacobsGhost I'd say we're in a no-fire environment for blue collar jobs while seeing growing layoffs for white collar jobs, and with those the end of many linear career paths. You know, where people follow a specific career with what they study in college, then come to the real world and work that job for the rest of their lives until they retire. For many industries and skill sets, AI is replacing those jobs. Best example is computer coding.
Mindset: AI will bring about the first major employment market shakeup that'll take out white collar workers while leaving blue collar workers intact. I'd think we'll see this grow across industries as AI begins to replace more people with automated systems. I'm already seeing Big Tech companies starting to lay off workers just to redirect the cost savings towards new AI fixed investments like corporate data centers and chip inventories. META about to cut 20% of their workforce. Strange times.
Mindset: AI will bring about the first major employment market shakeup that'll take out white collar workers while leaving blue collar workers intact. I'd think we'll see this grow across industries as AI begins to replace more people with automated systems. I'm already seeing Big Tech companies starting to lay off workers just to redirect the cost savings towards new AI fixed investments like corporate data centers and chip inventories. META about to cut 20% of their workforce. Strange times.
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Not sure I can completely agree with your assessment.
Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists.
Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth.
This all comes from the FRED
Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists.
Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth.
This all comes from the FRED
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Very interesting... At the risk of going too far off-topic (national vs. regional), I've been watching the employment figures coming in for some time, as part of my job is this research and tabulating it. The past few reports since the government shutdown, especially that Nonfarm Payrolls two months ago, seem off to me. I'm not sure if you follow this stuff, but you certainly seem to know your stuff. Can you give any color on this? Regional, statewide, or national. Thanks
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Hadn’t welding been automated in car manufacturing since the 80s?JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑5:37 PM - Mar 17Not sure I can completely agree with your assessment.
Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists.
Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth.
This all comes from the FRED
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I’ve come to not begin putting stock into an employment publications until there has been at least 1 revision.gone corporate wrote: ↑6:17 PM - Mar 17Very interesting... At the risk of going too far off-topic (national vs. regional), I've been watching the employment figures coming in for some time, as part of my job is this research and tabulating it. The past few reports since the government shutdown, especially that Nonfarm Payrolls two months ago, seem off to me. I'm not sure if you follow this stuff, but you certainly seem to know your stuff. Can you give any color on this? Regional, statewide, or national. Thanks
I do not know anything more than what my undergrad Econ degree taught and what is openly accessible from FRED and BLS.
Too DblnSouthCity point,dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑6:24 PM - Mar 17Hadn’t welding been automated in car manufacturing since the 80s?JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑5:37 PM - Mar 17Not sure I can completely agree with your assessment.
Manufacturing employment is down huge over the last year. We have also seen significant decreases in employment for electricians, truckers, carpenters, HVAC workers and machinists.
Pipefitters, welders, construction workers and operating engineers have seen growth.
This all comes from the FRED
I don't think people realize how much automation and robotics is becoming huge part of manufacturing and will only continue to grow. Have to dig but believe Economist had an article that noted how China installed more robots then the world combined in 2024 or maybe last year. The unit production price keeps diving down even with tariffs. On top of it, read a great article/interview with Hyundai new CEO (An American by the way) and how they had to transition to be both a car and a robotic manufacturer.
We simply will not have manufacturer job growth of anything meaningful measure. Production will be measured on who can add more machines and better machines to build our goods/machines.. A few will benefit greatly with the right skill set but not the masses in the political promise of onshoring. My opinion of course.
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I am somewhat happy my early retirement years are nearing; with AI and changing job environments, what jobs are available will be very interesting in the future. I will retire from my full time job within 5 years and hopefully still be able to find an easy, part time job to just give me some mad money while I live off retirement, 401K and eventually social security that I have paid into for 40 years.
"A locally based food dye manufacturer is expanding its north St. Louis operations, part of an up to $250 million investment to produce more natural food dyes. Sensient Food Colors broke ground Monday on what it says is a major expansion at its facility in the JeffVanderLou neighborhood, which is expected to add more than 200 jobs"
"The St. Louis site, at 2515 N. Jefferson Ave., is already the world’s largest food color manufacturing facility, with more than 500,000 square feet, Sensient said."
"The new project will add about 28,800 square feet of space dedicated exclusively to natural color processing and production, as food and beverage manufacturers increasingly move away from artificial dyes in response to consumer demand and legislative action, officials said."
"Sensient's St. Louis facility also is the headquarters for the Sensient Colors Group, including the parent company's U.S. food colors and North American industrial and pharmaceutical color businesses. The North Jefferson plant supplies natural and synthetic color products for a range of industries, including food and beverage, pet food, pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals, cosmetics and personal care products, according to the company. "
"The St. Louis site, at 2515 N. Jefferson Ave., is already the world’s largest food color manufacturing facility, with more than 500,000 square feet, Sensient said."
"The new project will add about 28,800 square feet of space dedicated exclusively to natural color processing and production, as food and beverage manufacturers increasingly move away from artificial dyes in response to consumer demand and legislative action, officials said."
"Sensient's St. Louis facility also is the headquarters for the Sensient Colors Group, including the parent company's U.S. food colors and North American industrial and pharmaceutical color businesses. The North Jefferson plant supplies natural and synthetic color products for a range of industries, including food and beverage, pet food, pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals, cosmetics and personal care products, according to the company. "