PostAug 12, 2021#726
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Ebsy wrote: ↑Aug 12, 2021I almost forgot about the race numbers. As anticipated, I can report that the City of St. Louis is now plurality white:
City of St. Louis
Percent Black/African American alone or in combination: 45.4
Percent White alone or in combination: 49.2
Percent Asian alone or in combination: 5.1
Changes to how the numbers are calculated means that we can't do apples to apples to the 2010 numbers, but even looking at White Alone vs. Black Alone, White alone has edged ahead.
Well all things considered this is pretty positive - I have a planner friend who was convinced the city was going to be at 295,000 or lower
The county gain is an unexpected surprise - I was thinking a small loss
Want to have about 15 minutes of fun - Here is the density map per census tract for 2020 - CWE is the densest neighborhood but some of the south side neighborhoods get pretty dense
https://mtgis-portal.geo.census.gov/arc ... 2fd7ff6eb7
The county gain is an unexpected surprise - I was thinking a small loss
Want to have about 15 minutes of fun - Here is the density map per census tract for 2020 - CWE is the densest neighborhood but some of the south side neighborhoods get pretty dense
https://mtgis-portal.geo.census.gov/arc ... 2fd7ff6eb7
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Jason Hall’s goal is 330k by 2030 fwiwaddxb2 wrote:If the momentum continues, we’re near the bottom of our barrel! Come on Mayor Jones and Jason Hall! 310 by 2030!Ebsy wrote: St. Louis City: -5.5% | Population: 301,578
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This... this doesn't support the 'Downtown is dying' narrative though.moorlander wrote: ↑Aug 12, 2021
Found this tool for 2010-2020 comparison by census tract: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/metrostlouis/
^Thanks for that:
A few initial takeaways. The rate of decline seems to be significantly flattening on the Southside, with some central corridor growth extending into it. Overall the Southside really seems to be stabilizing. The central corridor growth is more evenly spread across the central corridor (as opposed to centered on Downtown). The decline on the Northside continues unabated and has accelerated.
Orange/Yellow: Increase
Bright Green: Small Increase
Light Bluish green: flat to small decrease
Blue: Decrease
2010 -> 2020
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Random observation. Somehow Skinker-Debaliviere & Wydown/Skinker added a combined 500 residents. Thanks Everly Building.
A few initial takeaways. The rate of decline seems to be significantly flattening on the Southside, with some central corridor growth extending into it. Overall the Southside really seems to be stabilizing. The central corridor growth is more evenly spread across the central corridor (as opposed to centered on Downtown). The decline on the Northside continues unabated and has accelerated.
Orange/Yellow: Increase
Bright Green: Small Increase
Light Bluish green: flat to small decrease
Blue: Decrease
2010 -> 2020
Random observation. Somehow Skinker-Debaliviere & Wydown/Skinker added a combined 500 residents. Thanks Everly Building.
^ that’s a very impressive contrast. It looks like so many things are working, we just need to focus on being a much more friendly city for AA families.
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncat ... ge-2010-20
Here is an interactive map by census designated place. Interestingly, Wildwood, Valley Park and Fenton all lost population while much of far west county and south county saw anemic growth, vs much stronger growth for the inner wing suburbs in the South and West. Collinsville also lost population, though the picture on the east side is much worse overall.
Here is an interactive map by census designated place. Interestingly, Wildwood, Valley Park and Fenton all lost population while much of far west county and south county saw anemic growth, vs much stronger growth for the inner wing suburbs in the South and West. Collinsville also lost population, though the picture on the east side is much worse overall.
Some pretty dramatic swings in momentum for the Southside. Census tracts don't match up directly with neighborhood boundaries, but some are pretty close:
Princeton Heights, St. Louis Hills and Lindenwood Park (CT 1021, 1022, 1031, 1038) taken together went from around -1,150 to +15.
Overall these 19 census tracts went from losing nearly 11,000 residents to gaining around 700.
The only Southside pockets that appear to have accelerating population declines are :
| Neighborhood (census tract) | 2000-'10 | 2010-'20 | Change in rate per decade |
| Shaw (CT 1172) | -1,436 | +101 | +1,537 |
| South Grove / North Botanical Heights (CT 1181) | -686 | +267 | +953 |
| Eastern Bevo / Western Dutchtown (CT 1153) | -815 | +89 | +914 |
| McKinly Heights (some BP and Soulard) (CT 1233) | -471 | +342 | +813 |
| Tower Grove East (CT 1165) | -843 | -31 | +812 |
| Benton Park West (CT 1242) | -933 | -131 | +802 |
| Compton Heights (CT 1174) | -826 | -47 | +779 |
| Clayton-Tamm / Cheltenham (CT 1045) | -81 | +674 | +755 |
| Southwest Garden (CT 1171 & 1272) | -601 | +97 | +698 |
| TGS (CT 1162) | -840 | -150 | +690 |
| Fox Park (CT 1231) | -547 | -116 | +431 |
| Benton Park (CT 1243) | -496 | -72 | +424 |
| Southampton (CT 1143) | -669 | -263 | +406 |
| The Gate (CT 1273) | -414 | -40 | +374 |
| Total for census tracts listed above | -9,658 | +720 | +10,378 |
Overall these 19 census tracts went from losing nearly 11,000 residents to gaining around 700.
The only Southside pockets that appear to have accelerating population declines are :
- Eastern portion of Carondelet/Patch (CT 1018): -108 -> -263 (-155)
- Bevo west of MorganFord & Gravois (CT 1024, 1151): -207 -> -585 (-378)
Census data show Black people leaving city in droves as St. Louis, St. Charles counties become more diverse
https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/new ... ensus.html
North City lost 23% of its population.
South City lost 2%.
Central Corridor saw 13% growth.
https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/new ... ensus.html
North City lost 23% of its population.
South City lost 2%.
Central Corridor saw 13% growth.
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It's no real shocker that North City is emptying out.
I actually am shocked that South City didn't lose more, and am shocked that the Central Corridor didn't grow more.
I actually am shocked that South City didn't lose more, and am shocked that the Central Corridor didn't grow more.
Not sure what your definition of shocked is but this seems pretty much in line (if not better than what I expected). 13% is higher than St. Charles County’s rate of growth (granted a much lower raw number). 2% seems about right for the South Side as much of it has stabilized over the years while there are still pockets of disinvestment. North City needs to be the focus.
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North City absolutely needs to be the city's focus. No question about that.
What are the boundaries of North, Central, and South and their respective populations now?
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that 2% probably encompasses quite a few multifam to SFH conversions as well.
The city defines North City as north of Delmar, South City as south of I-44 and Central Corridor in between. Dogtown, Botanical Heights, Gate District, etc. are all in the CC according to the city.
If my memory serves me right, in 2010 the Central Corridor had 61k, North City ~100k and South City ~150k. If someone wants to actually crunch those numbers you can add up the neighborhood populations based on the table here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n ... _St._Louis
If my memory serves me right, in 2010 the Central Corridor had 61k, North City ~100k and South City ~150k. If someone wants to actually crunch those numbers you can add up the neighborhood populations based on the table here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n ... _St._Louis
I don't think there's a formal definition of north, central or south. Obviously Delmar has loomed large historically as a dividing line. The Southside is a little more debatable (generally between Chouteau/Manchester and 44). There are always grey areas like Franz Park, Ellendale, Grand Center, Columbus Square and Carr Square.flipz wrote: ↑Aug 17, 2021What are the boundaries of North, Central, and South and their respective populations now?
They don't match up directly, as one used neighborhood data and the other census tract data, but here are two different takes that provide a pretty close comparison from 2000 to 2020.
NEXTSTL 2000 -> 2010 (1st map below)
Northside: 116,811 -> 99,241
Central: 49,372 -> 54,817
Southside: 181,871 -> 165,179
Dyland Kennedy 2010 -> 2020 (2nd map below)
Northside: 94,468 -> 73,000
Central: 56,308 -> 63,775
Southside: 168,365 -> 164,800
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^So growth in the middle has accelerated, the bleeding has slowed nearly to a stop on the south, but up north it's gotten even worse. (Though in fairness, the raw number only increased by 4K. It just looks bad when that even larger number is measured against an even smaller total.) While the neighborhood numbers don't technically say this I'd guess the outmigration numbers have dropped quite a bit while the inmigration has ticked up nicely. (There could in theory be a lot of moving around inside city limits instead of movement in and out, but . . . I doubt it.) Rising land prices in CentCor should continue to encourage developers to look for cheaper prospects and we can hope to see some real growth outside the magic middle.
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Great analysis Wabash, thanks. What is Sunset Park?wabash wrote: ↑Aug 14, 2021Princeton Heights, Sunset Park and Lindenwood Park (CT 1021, 1022, 1031, 1038) taken together went from around -1,150 to +15.
Thanks for catching that. I meant St. Louis Hills. Somewhere between Sunset Park in Brooklyn (picturesque views of NY Harbor v. River Des Peres?) and Sunset Hills in St. Louis County (geographically sort of the St. Louis Hills of the County) I got my wires crossed.
Ah, as a former resident of Sunset Park Brooklyn I thought it was interesting there was a St Louis neighborhood with the same name that I had never heard about!
Census has migration data out - Domestically we are losing to the usual suspects - Sunbelt cities - Springfield Mo is the number one destination from StL metro, we get the biggest influx from Chicago
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2018 ... ation.html
https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/where ... -the-most/
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2018 ... ation.html
https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/where ... -the-most/