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PostJun 06, 2021#126

kipfilet wrote: ↑
Jun 02, 2021
April numbers are out: https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_stlouis_msa.htm
St. Louis: The labor force is still down but getting closer to normal. Same story with employment.



Other Metros:

Cleveland: 



Kansas City: April was a good month. Labor force is well above 2019 levels. LF and Employment hit record April highs. 



Cincinnati: Labor force back to normal. Employment lagging a bit.



Nashville: Employment is getting close to what it was pre-covid but the labor force is back to pre-pandemic levels.



San Fransisco: The labor force continues to decline, potentially indicating outmigration from their metro. Employment picking back up but still down big.

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PostJun 07, 2021#127

KC labor force: wow!! Wonder what is going on over there. A bunch of people who were at home before the pandemic now decided to look for a job? Was there significant migration to KC during the pandemic?

PostJun 28, 2021#128

Missouri data seems to indicate that cutting extra UI benefits has not improved employer's ability to hire in service jobs
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/27/busi ... efits.html
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PostJun 28, 2021#129

Saint Louis added 8,000 jobs in May. Total Non-farm employment is at 1,354.7 thousand.



Jobs Added

PostJun 30, 2021#130

May Employment and Labor Force







PostJul 16, 2021#131

BLS released June non-farm employment numbers.



STL metro lost around 1,000 jobs between May and June. 1355.3 employed in June (in thousands).

KC Metro added a little over 10,000 jobs. 1092.6 total

Cincinnati added 14,000 jobs. 1092.8 total.

Nashville added 400 jobs. 1031.9 total

Indianapolis added around 1500 jobs. 1068.1 total
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PostJul 16, 2021#132

Looks like the primary difference between STL and KC is a drop of about 8k jobs in the education & health services sector in STL.

This is an annual drop with students finishing masters and phd programs at WashU & SLU. This is not something experienced in peers and usually returns to peak by November. I expect this November will be pretty massive given it’ll be the first semester with normal student levels.

That sector alone could add 18k jobs before November.


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PostJul 16, 2021#133

STL June 2021 non-farm employment is around 2014-2015 levels.

sc4mayor
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PostJul 16, 2021#134

None of this data has any real meaning right now considering what this country is still trying to come out of.
https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/new ... s-cut.html
Max Gillman, an economics professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said he favored an analysis of data that was not seasonally adjusted, arguing that the pandemic has made seasonally adjusted data less meaningful because the country isn't experiencing a typical business cycle.

The raw data show that the state's labor force grew by more than 28,000 last month. Compared with the same statistic from May and a similar period in 2019, the increase was large, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"It's a huge change," Gillman said.

Meanwhile, employment grew 12,630, while the number of unemployed Missourians was up 15,786. The unemployment rate grew from 4.7% in May to 5.1% in June.

Private service jobs grew the most month to month, at 11,800. That was followed by those in goods production (7,200) and manufacturing (3,700).

Parson cut off $300 weekly federal unemployment benefits June 12. Citing Jefferies LLC economists, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that the number of unemployment-benefit recipients was falling at a faster rate in Missouri and 21 other states canceling enhanced and extended payments.

Radha Gopalan, professor of finance at Washington University's Olin School of Business, said he still favored seasonally adjusted data, which consider fluctuations that naturally occur during certain periods.

That data set showed Missouri's labor force shrinking by 179 people in June, while employment dropped by 4,522. The number of unemployed people rose by more than 4,300. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, still less than the national rate of 5.9%.
Definitely not surprised this has become a comparison thread with other cities though…
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PostJul 16, 2021#135

sc4mayor wrote:None of this data has any real meaning right now considering what this country is still trying to come out of.
https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/new ... s-cut.html
Max Gillman, an economics professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said he favored an analysis of data that was not seasonally adjusted, arguing that the pandemic has made seasonally adjusted data less meaningful because the country isn't experiencing a typical business cycle.

The raw data show that the state's labor force grew by more than 28,000 last month. Compared with the same statistic from May and a similar period in 2019, the increase was large, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"It's a huge change," Gillman said.

Meanwhile, employment grew 12,630, while the number of unemployed Missourians was up 15,786. The unemployment rate grew from 4.7% in May to 5.1% in June.

Private service jobs grew the most month to month, at 11,800. That was followed by those in goods production (7,200) and manufacturing (3,700).

Parson cut off $300 weekly federal unemployment benefits June 12. Citing Jefferies LLC economists, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that the number of unemployment-benefit recipients was falling at a faster rate in Missouri and 21 other states canceling enhanced and extended payments.

Radha Gopalan, professor of finance at Washington University's Olin School of Business, said he still favored seasonally adjusted data, which consider fluctuations that naturally occur during certain periods.

That data set showed Missouri's labor force shrinking by 179 people in June, while employment dropped by 4,522. The number of unemployed people rose by more than 4,300. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, still less than the national rate of 5.9%.
Definitely not surprised this has become a comparison thread with other cities though…
It’s important to look at the STL numbers in the context of the broader region. STL continues to big the biggest player and the comparisons to the past show STL is inline with others.

My concern is what happens when Nashville passes STL in the next decade. Will Missouri see sports teams drain away? How will it impact our role if at all in the broader region?
sc4mayor
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PostJul 16, 2021#136

^ Sports teams drain away? What? If that’s a legitimate concern (it absolutely should not be lol), then I’d be more worried about KC which is going to get passed by Nashville long before they get to St. Louis levels. Are the Chiefs and Royals going to leave? Of course they won’t. What an odd thing to focus on.
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PostJul 16, 2021#137

If Missouri doesn't clean up its act, I fear that Kansas City and St. Louis will have Memphis-level relevance, or worse, in the next 50 years. 
sc4mayor
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PostJul 16, 2021#138

^ Pretty much.  If Missouri stays on its current path both cities will be even more irrelevant than they already were.

Edit: I wouldn’t even say Memphis level irrelevance. More like Birmingham, Jackson, Little Rock and Mobile. That’s our future with this MoLeg.
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PostJul 16, 2021#139

KansasCitian wrote: ↑
Jul 16, 2021
If Missouri doesn't clean up its act, I fear that Kansas City and St. Louis will have Memphis-level relevance, or worse, in the next 50 years. 
Some truth in this comment that is scary for both St Louis and KC sake.    Memphis can blame Nashville for getting most of the love within TN,  the same for Metro East as it will never come close to getting the attention of Chicago from IL.   Three C's in Ohio have a little more competition among themselves to get some love from OH.   Twin Cities, Detroit and Indy will get their respective love as the dominant respective metro areas in MN, MI & IN and even Milwaukee finally has a WI Governor that will be more receptive.  However,  St Louis and KC literally has a state gov that has no desire to build its population base, job base and or GDP.  
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PostJul 16, 2021#140

sc4mayor wrote: ↑
Jul 16, 2021
^ Sports teams drain away?  What?  If that’s a legitimate concern (it absolutely should not be lol), then I’d be more worried about KC which is going to get passed by Nashville long before they get to St. Louis levels.  Are the Chiefs and Royals going to leave?  Of course they won’t.  What an odd thing to focus on.
This whole thread has become odd. The last few pages oughta be moved to the KC page because its just Idai low key ragging on StL's employment data.

Nevertheless, Mo can turn it around but its up to KC, StL, and CoMo to make it happen. VA, GA, and NC have all turned it around and we can too, and it starts with our urban areas.
sc4mayor
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PostJul 16, 2021#141

^ You’re absolutely right…especially in your second paragraph. I just feel the difference here is that those states have a governor and legislature that is more open to growing business and other development. They may be “red” states (let’s be honest, VA isn’t a red state any longer), but NC and GA are rapidly growing and turning in a different direction. Missouri is going the opposite way. The way of ‘bama and Mississippi. And there is literally nothing, so far, to convince me we can do anything different then these other low rent southern states.
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PostJul 17, 2021#142

It doesn't help that the Missouri GOP is now the anti-business party. I'm hopeful that as redneck politics supersede business, the redder parts of the suburbs and exurbs will start to shift bluer. Frankly, if Centene were too leave and gut its ops in Missouri on the way out, an awful lot of republicans in west county and St. Chuck will immediately rethink their alliance. But perhaps I'm being naive.  Nevertheless, I still think we have a lot more going for us that those deep south States thanks to StL and to a lesser degree KC. Not anything against KC, its just that a lot more of it is in Kansas than Stl is in Illinois. 
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PostJul 17, 2021#143

BellaVilla wrote: ↑
Jul 16, 2021
This whole thread has become odd. The last few pages oughta be moved to the KC page because its just Idai low key ragging on StL's employment data.
yep, i brought this up pages ago. it seems that Idai only posts stuff that shows KC outperforming STL in one way or another.
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PostJul 17, 2021#144

If Centene leaves it will 100% be blamed on the "pro-crime" liberals.

Also IMO Kansas City has crossed the tipping point on its journey towards magnet city status. It really feels like the city is in a place where Nashville was 15 years ago, and poised to attract even more growth. Having the vast majority of their density already concentrated into a single central corridor is a nice advantage for them.

STL is further behind in a number of ways, but will continue to be viewed as a gritty simply because we have such massive swaths of density that just takes a lot more to build out. Our neighborhoods are one of our biggest strengths but the do spread the cities vitality a bit thin.

Also we may be stagnant as a region in terms of growth but it would take a few absolutely apocalyptic decades to reduce our importance to that of Memphis, let alone Birmingham or *shudders* Jackson MS.
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PostJul 18, 2021#145

I just don't see Kansas City becoming a magnet city.

It's funny that Idai mentioned sports. I don't think KC will ever actually get that NBA or NHL franchise it wants.

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PostJul 18, 2021#146

sc4mayor wrote:^ Sports teams drain away? What? If that’s a legitimate concern (it absolutely should not be lol), then I’d be more worried about KC which is going to get passed by Nashville long before they get to St. Louis levels. Are the Chiefs and Royals going to leave? Of course they won’t. What an odd thing to focus on.
I think Royals would have left in the 2020s if not for them being sold to a local group recently. Chiefs don’t have that local ownership and are more apt to leave. Thankfully, it seems like there is less demand for those now.

I don’t see NBA or NHL happening. Nashville’s ability to attract tourists and sell tickets to said tourists makes it a great place for NBA or MLB expansion.

It often feels like KC has no home bases left. Any jobs they add today will be the first businesses cut in a major downturn. I wonder if MO and KC/STL would be able to transition to an income tax free system. Offset with a corporate tax hike or property tax? No personal income tax would make us a whole lot more competitive in a WFH economy and with employer relocations,
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PostJul 19, 2021#147

The demise of the STL metro is greatly exaggerated, IMO.  With the expansion of the National Geo-spatial-Intelligence Agency on the Northside, continuing expansion of Cortex, the Danforth  Plant Science Center (making STL an agriculture epic center) , Bayer pharmaceuticals / scientific research, research universities (Wash U/STL U.), not to mention 14 Fortune 1000 companies are located here, etc. the STL metro area is doing quite nicely in spite of the Missouri Republican legislators.  Our peer cities envy us, believe me. 
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PostJul 19, 2021#148

^Here, here. 
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PostJul 19, 2021#149

I think St. Louis has a chance to really turn things around and find some major success in the 21st century, but it is going to really require the region working together to make it happen.

That said, St. Louis was the nation's 10th largest metro in 1970 and it has taken about 50 years for us to lose about 10 spots, with the rate at which cities pass us now speeding up. I do not think it is far-fetched to say that St. Louis could be the nation's 40th largest metro in 50 years. 

Baltimore, Charlotte, Orlando, San Antonio, and Portland are all coming in hot. Sacramento is lagging behind them.

Las Vegas and Austin are also destined to blow past St. Louis in size.

Missouri has a major problem right now. Even with all the people patting themselves on the back in Kansas City, Kansas City really isn't getting the job done, either. Columbus, Indianapolis, and Nashville are nipping at their heels and each will assuredly pass them.  
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PostJul 19, 2021#150

Breakdown by industry. Some are improving. Others aren’t.



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