....it appears that our entire drop in % unemployment is people getting out of the workforce
St. Louis adds 8,900 jobs in November but recovery is far from complete
https://www.stltoday.com/business/colum ... 265e6.html
https://www.stltoday.com/business/colum ... 265e6.html
The latest seasonally adjusted numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics mean 95,800 metro area residents have returned to work since April, when widespread business closings devastated the economy. However, employment is 68,200 less than in February, before the pandemic reached St. Louis.
The leisure and hospitality industry has been hit hardest. It has eliminated more than 25,000 jobs since February, with 16,700 of those at restaurants and bars and the rest at hotels, theaters and other entertainment venues.
November data is out.
Unemployment rate down to 4.3%. Almost entirely due to a decrease in the labor force.
Labor Force is down 4.3% year over year and continues to decline. The second-lowest point in 10 years and close to surpassing the April 2020 low.
Employment down 4.8% year over year. November employed numbers around 2013/2014 levels
Unemployment rate down to 4.3%. Almost entirely due to a decrease in the labor force.
Labor Force is down 4.3% year over year and continues to decline. The second-lowest point in 10 years and close to surpassing the April 2020 low.
Employment down 4.8% year over year. November employed numbers around 2013/2014 levels
Nicklaus: St. Louis unemployment rate stays at 4.9% as workforce continues to shrink
https://www.stltoday.com/business/colum ... fa24d.html
https://www.stltoday.com/business/colum ... fa24d.html
The new number, as seasonally adjusted by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, marked little improvement from the October rate, which was originally reported as 4.9% but revised slightly to 5.0%. Unemployment had fallen rapidly after peaking at 11.6% in April and May, but job gains have slowed and residents continue to drop out of the metro area's labor force.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 9,418 fewer people in the local labor force in November compared with October, and 62,740 fewer than in November 2019. The labor force is the number of people working or actively looking for a job. The BLS listed 61,532 metro area residents as unemployed, down slightly from October but up 16,064, or 35%, from a year ago.
St. Louis did achieve one distinction in a monthly BLS news release: Its 12-month rise in unemployment of 1.2 percentage points, before seasonal adjustment, was the smallest among the 51 largest U.S. metro areas.
I posted the BLS unemployment numbers but it sounds like a temporary holiday bump that the FED corrects for.sc4mayor wrote:Nicklaus: St. Louis unemployment rate stays at 4.9% as workforce continues to shrink
https://www.stltoday.com/business/colum ... fa24d.html
The new number, as seasonally adjusted by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, marked little improvement from the October rate, which was originally reported as 4.9% but revised slightly to 5.0%. Unemployment had fallen rapidly after peaking at 11.6% in April and May, but job gains have slowed and residents continue to drop out of the metro area's labor force.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 9,418 fewer people in the local labor force in November compared with October, and 62,740 fewer than in November 2019. The labor force is the number of people working or actively looking for a job. The BLS listed 61,532 metro area residents as unemployed, down slightly from October but up 16,064, or 35%, from a year ago.
St. Louis did achieve one distinction in a monthly BLS news release: Its 12-month rise in unemployment of 1.2 percentage points, before seasonal adjustment, was the smallest among the 51 largest U.S. metro areas.
St. Louis region was down 1,900 jobs in December. Mostly due to a decline of 1,600 jobs in the bar and restaurant sector after St. Louis County closed indoor dining in December again.
https://www.stltoday.com/business/colum ... 43694.html
https://www.stltoday.com/business/colum ... 43694.html
The pandemic-driven downturn effectively wiped out the metro area's past five years of job gains. St. Louis area employment totaled 1.33 million, the same as at the end of 2014.
Still, St. Louis fared slightly better than the U.S. as a whole. The metro area saw 4.6% of its jobs disappear last year, compared with 6.2% for the nation.
Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary December metro data is out. BLS is reporting that the STL metro lost 5,000 jobs from November.
STL's December employment is around the Jane/Feb 2016 level. You have to go back to 2013 to find a lower December number.
Metro : Year over Year Change (%) in employment for December
New York: -10.4%
San Fransisco: -9.7%
Las Vegas: -9.4%
LA: -9.0%
Cleveland: -8.5%
Seattle: -7.5%
Chicago: -7.4%
Milwaukee: -7.3%
Columbus: -6.3%
Des Moines: -5.3%
Cincinnati: -4.6%
STL : -4.6%
Nashville: -4.1%
Kansas City: -2.8%
Atlanta: -2.5%
Dallas: -2.1%
Austin: -1%
Indianapolis: -0.9%
SLC: -0.5%
STL's December employment is around the Jane/Feb 2016 level. You have to go back to 2013 to find a lower December number.
Metro : Year over Year Change (%) in employment for December
New York: -10.4%
San Fransisco: -9.7%
Las Vegas: -9.4%
LA: -9.0%
Cleveland: -8.5%
Seattle: -7.5%
Chicago: -7.4%
Milwaukee: -7.3%
Columbus: -6.3%
Des Moines: -5.3%
Cincinnati: -4.6%
STL : -4.6%
Nashville: -4.1%
Kansas City: -2.8%
Atlanta: -2.5%
Dallas: -2.1%
Austin: -1%
Indianapolis: -0.9%
SLC: -0.5%
I get the boom/bust of NYC, SF, LA, Seattle given their higher costs of living/rent. And Vegas struggling because of its reliance on hospitality. But that is really bad news for Cleveland. They can't seem to catch a break. Lagging on the way up and lagging on the way down. Do you have a link? I'm curious how they compare to Detroit, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.ldai_phs wrote: ↑Jan 27, 2021Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary December metro data is out. BLS is reporting that the STL metro lost 5,000 jobs from November.
STL's December employment is around the Jane/Feb 2016 level. You have to go back to 2013 to find a lower December number.
Metro : Year over Year Change (%) in employment for December
New York: -10.4%
San Fransisco: -9.7%
Las Vegas: -9.4%
LA: -9.0%
Cleveland: -8.5%
Seattle: -7.5%
Chicago: -7.4%
Milwaukee: -7.3%
Columbus: -6.3%
Des Moines: -5.3%
Cincinnati: -4.6%
STL : -4.6%
Nashville: -4.1%
Kansas City: -2.8%
Atlanta: -2.5%
Dallas: -2.1%
Austin: -1%
Indianapolis: -0.9%
SLC: -0.5%
Just Google *City* BLS Unemployment and open the “economy at a glance” link. BLS website is hard to navigate between citieswabash wrote:I get the boom/bust of NYC, SF, LA, Seattle given their higher costs of living/rent. And Vegas struggling because of its reliance on hospitality. But that is really bad news for Cleveland. They can't seem to catch a break. Lagging on the way up and lagging on the way down. Do you have a link? I'm curious how they compare to Detroit, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.ldai_phs wrote: ↑Jan 27, 2021Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary December metro data is out. BLS is reporting that the STL metro lost 5,000 jobs from November.
STL's December employment is around the Jane/Feb 2016 level. You have to go back to 2013 to find a lower December number.
Metro : Year over Year Change (%) in employment for December
New York: -10.4%
San Fransisco: -9.7%
Las Vegas: -9.4%
LA: -9.0%
Cleveland: -8.5%
Seattle: -7.5%
Chicago: -7.4%
Milwaukee: -7.3%
Columbus: -6.3%
Des Moines: -5.3%
Cincinnati: -4.6%
STL : -4.6%
Nashville: -4.1%
Kansas City: -2.8%
Atlanta: -2.5%
Dallas: -2.1%
Austin: -1%
Indianapolis: -0.9%
SLC: -0.5%
Detroit: -11.9% big losses between November and December.
Pittsburgh: -7.2%
Buffalo: -7.8%
Thanks. Those are some pretty bad metrics across the Great Lakes region, with Pittsburgh only marginally better.ldai_phs wrote: ↑Jan 27, 2021Just Google *City* BLS Unemployment and open the “economy at a glance” link. BLS website is hard to navigate between citieswabash wrote:I get the boom/bust of NYC, SF, LA, Seattle given their higher costs of living/rent. And Vegas struggling because of its reliance on hospitality. But that is really bad news for Cleveland. They can't seem to catch a break. Lagging on the way up and lagging on the way down. Do you have a link? I'm curious how they compare to Detroit, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.ldai_phs wrote: ↑Jan 27, 2021Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary December metro data is out. BLS is reporting that the STL metro lost 5,000 jobs from November.
STL's December employment is around the Jane/Feb 2016 level. You have to go back to 2013 to find a lower December number.
Metro : Year over Year Change (%) in employment for December
New York: -10.4%
San Fransisco: -9.7%
Las Vegas: -9.4%
LA: -9.0%
Cleveland: -8.5%
Seattle: -7.5%
Chicago: -7.4%
Milwaukee: -7.3%
Columbus: -6.3%
Des Moines: -5.3%
Cincinnati: -4.6%
STL : -4.6%
Nashville: -4.1%
Kansas City: -2.8%
Atlanta: -2.5%
Dallas: -2.1%
Austin: -1%
Indianapolis: -0.9%
SLC: -0.5%
Detroit: -11.9% big losses between November and December.
Pittsburgh: -7.2%
Buffalo: -7.8%
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Unemployment up to nearly 6% as labor force jumps by about 70K
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... db75e.html
So, were people just like, "Nah, its the holidays" this year?
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... db75e.html
So, were people just like, "Nah, its the holidays" this year?
Missouri added jobs while the unemployment rate went up. This is because 70,000 people who had not been looking for a job started looking again in December.BellaVilla wrote:Unemployment up to nearly 6% as labor force jumps by about 70K
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... db75e.html
So, were people just like, "Nah, its the holidays" this year?
IMHO, employed persons is the most important metric now. STL’s declined between November and December which is very concerning to me. The yoy change for November was higher than that in December.
This may interest you: Portland saw a huge 8.5% yoy drop in December and lost many jobs between November and December. Their leisure industry is down over 40% year over year. I can't help but think that their political atmosphere has made it a no-go for most toursits.wabash wrote: ↑Jan 27, 2021Thanks. Those are some pretty bad metrics across the Great Lakes region, with Pittsburgh only marginally better.ldai_phs wrote: ↑Jan 27, 2021Just Google *City* BLS Unemployment and open the “economy at a glance” link. BLS website is hard to navigate between citieswabash wrote: I get the boom/bust of NYC, SF, LA, Seattle given their higher costs of living/rent. And Vegas struggling because of its reliance on hospitality. But that is really bad news for Cleveland. They can't seem to catch a break. Lagging on the way up and lagging on the way down. Do you have a link? I'm curious how they compare to Detroit, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.
Detroit: -11.9% big losses between November and December.
Pittsburgh: -7.2%
Buffalo: -7.8%
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.or_portland_msa.htm
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I understand how unemployment rates are calculated, thanks. My comment questioned why all those people left the workforce two months ago only to return now.ldai_phs wrote: ↑Jan 29, 2021Missouri added jobs while the unemployment rate went up. This is because 70,000 people who had not been looking for a job started looking again in December.BellaVilla wrote:Unemployment up to nearly 6% as labor force jumps by about 70K
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... db75e.html
So, were people just like, "Nah, its the holidays" this year?
IMHO, employed persons is the most important metric now. STL’s declined between November and December which is very concerning to me. The yoy change for November was higher than that in December.
More December 2020 data for the STL Metro from BLS:
The unemployment rate clocked in at 5.9% as 18,000 returned to the labor force while 6,000 jobs were lost. STL's December labor force is around December 2014 levels.
KC and Austin had larger labor forces in December 2020 than they did in December 2019. Nashville's labor force shrunk between November and December but is up yoy.
The unemployment rate clocked in at 5.9% as 18,000 returned to the labor force while 6,000 jobs were lost. STL's December labor force is around December 2014 levels.
KC and Austin had larger labor forces in December 2020 than they did in December 2019. Nashville's labor force shrunk between November and December but is up yoy.
Nicklaus: St. Louis unemployment rate jumps to 6.2%
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... ddad3.html
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... ddad3.html
The St. Louis area's unemployment rate jumped to 6.2% in December as the number of people looking for work rose sharply.
The metro area's jobless rate, as seasonally adjusted by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, had been just 4.9% in November. St. Louis remains below the national unemployment rate, which was 6.7% in December.
December marked the first uptick in unemployment here since April, when pandemic-related layoffs pushed the rate to 11.6%. The area's job market recovered steadily for six months, but St. Louis County's renewed indoor dining ban contributed to a metro-wide loss of 1,900 jobs in December.
A large number of St. Louisans also re-entered the labor market in December. The area's labor force — the total number of people working or looking for work — rose by 18,407, or 1.3%, between November and December. Those numbers, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, are not seasonally adjusted. The December workforce total represented a drop of 2.5% from the same month in 2019, compared with a larger 4% drop as of November.
How is it calculated that more people are looking for work or re-entered the labor market? How is this figured when it comes to unemployment rates? I thought unemployment was based on those collecting benefits. Just curious.sc4mayor wrote: ↑Feb 04, 2021Nicklaus: St. Louis unemployment rate jumps to 6.2%
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... ddad3.html
The St. Louis area's unemployment rate jumped to 6.2% in December as the number of people looking for work rose sharply.
The metro area's jobless rate, as seasonally adjusted by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, had been just 4.9% in November. St. Louis remains below the national unemployment rate, which was 6.7% in December.
December marked the first uptick in unemployment here since April, when pandemic-related layoffs pushed the rate to 11.6%. The area's job market recovered steadily for six months, but St. Louis County's renewed indoor dining ban contributed to a metro-wide loss of 1,900 jobs in December.
A large number of St. Louisans also re-entered the labor market in December. The area's labor force — the total number of people working or looking for work — rose by 18,407, or 1.3%, between November and December. Those numbers, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, are not seasonally adjusted. The December workforce total represented a drop of 2.5% from the same month in 2019, compared with a larger 4% drop as of November.
In volatile times like this, it's much better to look at employment/population. There are such large swings in labor force participation that the unemployment rate becomes kind of meaningless. Just saying.
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The calculation is not # of employees/Total Pop. In very broad strokes the calculation is # of employees/Total pop. of people looking for work. Its far more complicated than that the BLS has about a dozen different unemployment calculations. For whatever reason, the media reports the U6 unemployment calculation (I think).ibleedlou wrote: ↑Feb 04, 2021How is it calculated that more people are looking for work or re-entered the labor market? How is this figured when it comes to unemployment rates? I thought unemployment was based on those collecting benefits. Just curious.sc4mayor wrote: ↑Feb 04, 2021Nicklaus: St. Louis unemployment rate jumps to 6.2%
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... ddad3.html
The St. Louis area's unemployment rate jumped to 6.2% in December as the number of people looking for work rose sharply.
The metro area's jobless rate, as seasonally adjusted by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, had been just 4.9% in November. St. Louis remains below the national unemployment rate, which was 6.7% in December.
December marked the first uptick in unemployment here since April, when pandemic-related layoffs pushed the rate to 11.6%. The area's job market recovered steadily for six months, but St. Louis County's renewed indoor dining ban contributed to a metro-wide loss of 1,900 jobs in December.
A large number of St. Louisans also re-entered the labor market in December. The area's labor force — the total number of people working or looking for work — rose by 18,407, or 1.3%, between November and December. Those numbers, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, are not seasonally adjusted. The December workforce total represented a drop of 2.5% from the same month in 2019, compared with a larger 4% drop as of November.
Thanks, I didn't know this.sc4mayor wrote: ↑Feb 04, 2021^The unemployment and labor-force numbers come from a BLS survey of households.
- 9,528
I assume the media has stuck with U6 for the sake of consistency, its like how media still uses census data by quoting the once a decade number instead of the newly developed and more frequently used for professional, the 5 year ACSBellaVilla wrote: ↑Feb 04, 2021The calculation is not # of employees/Total Pop. In very broad strokes the calculation is # of employees/Total pop. of people looking for work. Its far more complicated than that the BLS has about a dozen different unemployment calculations. For whatever reason, the media reports the U6 unemployment calculation (I think).ibleedlou wrote: ↑Feb 04, 2021How is it calculated that more people are looking for work or re-entered the labor market? How is this figured when it comes to unemployment rates? I thought unemployment was based on those collecting benefits. Just curious.sc4mayor wrote: ↑Feb 04, 2021Nicklaus: St. Louis unemployment rate jumps to 6.2%
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... ddad3.html
https://news.stlpublicradio.org/economy ... ic-rebound
“If we bounce back really quickly but then we return to a slow growth trend, we’ll just be further behind than when we started. So we really have to balance these two things out as we move forward,” he said.
Gascon said one indication of a healthy economy is population growth — something the region isn’t expected to generate in the near future.
But he said the region could create more economic growth if it invests time and money in helping more existing residents get jobs, higher wages and increased property values.
“If we bounce back really quickly but then we return to a slow growth trend, we’ll just be further behind than when we started. So we really have to balance these two things out as we move forward,” he said.
Gascon said one indication of a healthy economy is population growth — something the region isn’t expected to generate in the near future.
But he said the region could create more economic growth if it invests time and money in helping more existing residents get jobs, higher wages and increased property values.
It’s so painful that the answer is right there! STL has so much economic talent, most are willing to provide their feedback for free! Policy just needs to work hard, partner up, and listen.
Open a large 24/7 childcare facility downtown for one year. Keep it free for hard hit industry partners (Downtown hotels, the stadiums, entertainment).
Make transit free to anyone under 18, again, for at least a year.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Open a large 24/7 childcare facility downtown for one year. Keep it free for hard hit industry partners (Downtown hotels, the stadiums, entertainment).
Make transit free to anyone under 18, again, for at least a year.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk