urbanSTL

Minneapolis, Detroit, Chicago, Indianapolis, and Nashville all had slower years.

Any theory as to why while a majority of midwestern peers were plateauing or dipping negative for the first time in a decade, St. Louis is growing fastest?

Shown, % change from year ago

Cost of living? Detroit would be the only cheaper option, and even then I feel as if people are still scared of Detroit and the Flint water crisis.

^  You could also argue that the regions continued positive employment is also supported by St. Louis having a heavy financial and health care corporate presence which in turn has been a big plus over the last couple of years.  Just look at downtown Clayton and CORTEX.    Also, not to get to deep on political front but can see both parties have campaign rhetoric about big pharma prices but no one is going into the 2020 political season advocating big cuts in govt supported health care.   Which again, is a plus for region with Centene, institutional healthcare/research and the likes.  

The last couple of years I've been expecting a big boost in financial services jobs; something like a large back-office re-location from one of the coasts. People have talked about it being one of our strengths, but as far as I know, it hasn't panned out. 

While no BIG announcements, finance and education/health have been our most reliable.

Finance:



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Upcoming numbers are certainly "important" for the region and it's economy in the near term, but IMO won't be of much use for the next 6 months for any longer term thinking. Fingers crossed that we weather the storm better than most like we have in recent downturns, but this is a whole different ballgame. I do think we will hold up better than a lot of places as we are certainly less exposed to tourism/travel than many places in the country.

What holds us back so to speak in the boom times holds us up in the bad times. Hopefully.

Some information put together by Brookings. They suggest St. Louis will fair better than most others under current conditions.



https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-aven ... t-hardest/

We did better than average

StlToday - Metro St. Louis loses 152,700 jobs in April

https://www.stltoday.com/business/colum ... 3ad95.html

Some COVID employment numbers of St. Louis and peers now that we have preliminary April numbers. 

Detroit is the hardest hit with about 25% of its overall workforce laid off between 2019 and 2020. Dallas has managed the best, only -7.56% loss since last April. Generally, St. Louis is handling better than Baltimore, Minneapolis, Detroit, and Charlotte. About even with Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Nashville. 

- St. Louis and Baltimore lost significantly more of their IT workforce, somewhere between 20 and 25% lost. Other regions managed a lot better. 
- St. Louis has maintained it's education and health services industry better than all, losing only 4.75% of that industry. (I'm sure the 3k laid off at BJC this week won't help)
- As expected, largest cuts is Leisure & Hospitality. St. Louis losing 50%, about average.

	Change April 2019 - April 2020	Mining, Logging & Construction	Manufacturing	Trade, Transportation, & Utilities	Information	Financial Activities	Professional & Business Services	Education & Health Services	Leisure & Hospitality	Other Services	Government
St. Louis	-11.51%	-13.54%	-10.19%	-6.28%	-21.32%	-1.40%	-7.07%	-4.75%	-50.84%	-11.52%	-2.84%
Denver	-9.92%	-7.89%	-2.98%	-7.83%	2.78%	-4.10%	-2.52%	-11.65%	-43.28%	-23.59%	0.48%
Kansas City	-10.56%	2.30%	-16.67%	-5.76%	-6.17%	-2.43%	-7.24%	-8.22%	-49.28%	-10.90%	-1.33%
Baltimore	-13.35%	-1.50%	-12.48%	-9.33%	-23.70%	-11.49%	-7.88%	-10.46%	-48.56%	-32.30%	-5.63%
Indianapolis	-10.95%	-5.76%	-12.50%	-4.69%	-2.94%	0.00%	-9.44%	-10.37%	-39.71%	-29.83%	-1.20%
Minneapolis	-13.43%	-14.50%	-5.62%	-9.38%	-5.35%	-2.35%	-8.15%	-12.66%	-55.98%	-24.94%	-5.78%
Detroit	-24.52%	-51.12%	-33.53%	-20.07%	-4.87%	-6.95%	-20.13%	-18.23%	-59.28%	-37.55%	-3.13%
Dallas	-7.56%	-1.07%	-3.34%	-2.83%	-1.72%	2.58%	-6.06%	-9.70%	-39.18%	-13.18%	-0.52%
Nashville	-11.88%	-1.64%	-20.02%	-2.68%	-5.71%	0.85%	-9.10%	-8.58%	-49.71%	-18.98%	-1.95%
Charlotte	-13.19%	-0.59%	-8.75%	-7.94%	-7.50%	3.17%	-8.61%	-15.68%	-58.22%	-20.19%	-2.93%

About 50% of St. Louis layoffs came from Leisure & Hospitality. Trade, Transportation & Utilities and Professional & Business Services also made up about 10% each of all layoffs.

	Apr 2019 - 2020	Industry Share of Total Losses
Mining, Logging & Construction	(9.30)	5.78%
Manufacturing	(12.10)	7.52%
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities	(16.00)	9.95%
Information	(5.80)	3.61%
Financial Activities	(1.30)	0.81%
Professional & Business Services	(15.10)	9.39%
Education & Health Services	(12.40)	7.71%
Leisure & Hospitality	(78.50)	48.82%
Other Services	(5.90)	3.67%
Government	(4.40)	2.74%

Most of the negatives look pretty clearly pandemic related. Some things that you might expect to be down because of the pandemic are actually up. (Most notably Wash U and the Special School District.) Overall, I'd say this is a fairly positive report.

26k jobs came back in June. We’re 25% recovered from Feb.

CBRE Brain drain v. gain chart.

^ this doesn't actually measure gain/drain, though. it just says number of tech degrees awarded outpaced number of tech jobs created (in STL's case, anyway). says nothing about where those tech degrees went, or how many of the new positions are filled.

Another 37.2k jobs returned in June to July 1. About 50% recovered.

Other tidbits...
- In March, St. Louis briefly surpassed Baltimore for the first time since April 2011. Baltimore has since reclaimed a very slim lead.
- Indy is just 600 jobs from passing Kansas City. This will be the first time. 60k jobs separated the two just 10 years ago.
- Nashville’s recovery has come to a screeching halt. One of a few recording a decline from June to July.




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As I think most expected, the “V” recovery period appears to be, at least temporarily, over. Around 5k jobs returned between July 1 and Aug 1.

This appears to be a shared trend, at least amongst our peers. KC and Indy doing very slightly better. Pittsburgh and Nashville doing slightly worse.

I think recovery will go at this slower pace or worse until spring of 2021. I don’t see hospitality returning to hiring in the Midwest until spring/summer tourism season.

IF YOU CAN... plan a staycation downtown for Christmas/New Years.




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September labor report information is out for St. Louis. The region's nonfarm employment is down 5.9% over Sept 2019. The "recovery"  appears to have ended with September reaching a year-over-year loss near where we were in June/July.

STL is down 5.9% this year and getting worse. 
Indianapolis is down 3.2% and getting worse

Chicago is down 7.2% and improving
Nashville is down 5.7% and improving
KC is down 3.9% and improving
Atlanta down 3.7% and improving
Denver down 3.7% and improving
Austin is down 2.5% and improving


BLS Data

Although not specifically confined to the metro area, Missouri has realized the second most completed apprenticeships in the country for the second year in a row. With 3,388 completed apprenticeships, only California had more. I generally think GOP "workforce development" programs are regressive, however these numbers are great news. Further, the more organized workers we create and employ, the harder it will be for the conservatives to pass right to work again.

https://www.kmmo.com/2020/10/21/missour ... p-efforts/

City: Sept. Unemployment%: October 12 Month Change %

Chicago: 11.7%, -7.2%
New York: 9.7%, -10.4%
Portland: 7.7%, -7%
Cincinatti: 6.9%, -4.2%
Atlanta: 6.7%, -3.1%
Austin: 6.4%, -1.9%
Raleigh: 6.1%, -6.3%
Milwaukee: 6%, -6.7%
Indianapolis: 6%, -2.1%
Nashville: 5.9%, -5%
St. Louis: 5.5%, -5.1%
Kansas City: 4.9%, -4%


BLS Website: https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.wi_milwaukee_msa.htm