urbanSTL

gone corporate wrote:Can we reasonably expect to see a boost in local home/condo purchasing from wealthy WashU parents? 

Not really seeing that kind of demand surge in Skinker DeBaliviere yet.

Don’t really think that’s super likely, unless it’s an incoming freshman and they’re going to commit to 4 years of owning... or it’s a junior/senior that’s planning on staying in STL long term and is going to get ahead on housing.


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Strangely, there's a For Rent sign in front of a two fam on 6100 Pershing.

FWIW, the house next door to me sold last year to a family from out of town. Their daughter is living in it while she attends Wash U, and the parents plan to move in after her studies are over. 

Per Redfin Data, average downpayment is 25% in St. Louis over the last month. That’s over double the national average.

I see two obvious possibilities for this, though I certainly wouldn’t limit it to these two.


1) cheaper real estate in St. Louis makes it easier to provide a larger down payment.

2) people from superstar cities are buying in St. Louis and using their profits from home sales in those cities as hefty down payments.


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SeattleNative wrote: ↑

Aug 10, 2020

Per Redfin Data, average downpayment is 25% in St. Louis over the last month. That’s over double the national average.

I see two obvious possibilities for this, though I certainly wouldn’t limit it to these two.


1) cheaper real estate in St. Louis makes it easier to provide a larger down payment.

2) people from superstar cities are buying in St. Louis and using their profits from home sales in those cities as hefty down payments.


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It would be interesting to see if similar cities (KC, Indy, Cincy, Pittsburgh) are experiencing something similar.

robbie wrote:

SeattleNative wrote: ↑

Aug 10, 2020

Per Redfin Data, average downpayment is 25% in St. Louis over the last month. That’s over double the national average.

I see two obvious possibilities for this, though I certainly wouldn’t limit it to these two.


1) cheaper real estate in St. Louis makes it easier to provide a larger down payment.

2) people from superstar cities are buying in St. Louis and using their profits from home sales in those cities as hefty down payments.


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It would be interesting to see if similar cities (KC, Indy, Cincy, Pittsburgh) are experiencing something similar.

Per Redfin, downpayments:

KC: 3.5%
Indy: 3.9%
Cincy: 18.6%
Pittsburgh 11.2%


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^Wow, that's pretty stuning.

SeattleNative wrote:

robbie wrote:

SeattleNative wrote: ↑

Aug 10, 2020

Per Redfin Data, average downpayment is 25% in St. Louis over the last month. That’s over double the national average.

I see two obvious possibilities for this, though I certainly wouldn’t limit it to these two.


1) cheaper real estate in St. Louis makes it easier to provide a larger down payment.

2) people from superstar cities are buying in St. Louis and using their profits from home sales in those cities as hefty down payments.


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It would be interesting to see if similar cities (KC, Indy, Cincy, Pittsburgh) are experiencing something similar.

Per Redfin, downpayments:

KC: 3.5%
Indy: 3.9%
Cincy: 18.6%
Pittsburgh 11.2%


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I’ve seen a big uptick on the leasing side recently due to school changes,etc.

Playing devils advocate, I think the chart above isn’t guaranteed to be a good thing.

Could it also be possible that the bottom end of the market is dropping out? i.e. Averages are increasing because below average buyers in STL aren’t pulling the trigger anymore. This makes some sense with all the data showing lower income brackets have been hit the most with layoffs.

The deposit increase could also be a function of increased requirements from lenders.

ldai_phs wrote:

SeattleNative wrote:

robbie wrote: It would be interesting to see if similar cities (KC, Indy, Cincy, Pittsburgh) are experiencing something similar.

Per Redfin, downpayments:

KC: 3.5%
Indy: 3.9%
Cincy: 18.6%
Pittsburgh 11.2%


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I’ve seen a big uptick on the leasing side recently due to school changes,etc.

Playing devils advocate, I think the chart above isn’t guaranteed to be a good thing.

Could it also be possible that the bottom end of the market is dropping out? i.e. Averages are increasing because below average buyers in STL aren’t pulling the trigger anymore. This makes some sense with all the data showing lower income brackets have been hit the most with layoffs.

The deposit increase could also be a function of increased requirements from lenders.

Wouldn’t the same be true in other markets across the country if this were the case? Especially in peer cities with lower cost of living? We seem to have an abnormally high down payment relative to national average and our peers.


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pattimagee wrote: ↑

Aug 10, 2020

She mentioned she had a home in TGS that had 18 offers sent in after their open house on a Monday. 

Wow. That's an incredible anecdote to read. 

SeattleNative wrote:

ldai_phs wrote:

SeattleNative wrote: Per Redfin, downpayments:

KC: 3.5%
Indy: 3.9%
Cincy: 18.6%
Pittsburgh 11.2%


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I’ve seen a big uptick on the leasing side recently due to school changes,etc.

Playing devils advocate, I think the chart above isn’t guaranteed to be a good thing.

Could it also be possible that the bottom end of the market is dropping out? i.e. Averages are increasing because below average buyers in STL aren’t pulling the trigger anymore. This makes some sense with all the data showing lower income brackets have been hit the most with layoffs.

The deposit increase could also be a function of increased requirements from lenders.

Wouldn’t the same be true in other markets across the country if this were the case? Especially in peer cities with lower cost of living? We seem to have an abnormally high down payment relative to national average and our peers.


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Kansas City: Average Price $224k (up 9.4%). PSF up 7.1%. 18 days in market average.

Indy: Average Price $185k (up 12.1%). Avg 8 days on market.

Cincy: Average Price $195k (up 12.8%). Avg 49 days on market.

Pitt: Average Price $206k (up 11.8%). Avg 64 days on market

STL City(what was posted above): Average Price $197k (up 9.4%). Avg. 25 days on market.

My hypothesis is that urban jurisdictions such as STL, Cincy, and Pitt have higher down payments than cities that have a mix of suburbs and urban (KC and Indy.)


Let’s dig deeper into #2 by exploring suburb vs urban market data from Redfin.

- STL County: Average Price $232k (up 12.7%). Avg 44 days on the market with a 3% down payment.
- Downtown KC sub-market has an average time of 46 days on market and 20% down payment (not far off from STL City).
- Hamilton Ohio, a large Cincy suburb, has down payments of just 1.8%.
- Jefferson Hills, ranked one of the best Pitt suburbs, has an average down payment of 5%

ldai_phs wrote:

SeattleNative wrote:

ldai_phs wrote: I’ve seen a big uptick on the leasing side recently due to school changes,etc.

Playing devils advocate, I think the chart above isn’t guaranteed to be a good thing.

Could it also be possible that the bottom end of the market is dropping out? i.e. Averages are increasing because below average buyers in STL aren’t pulling the trigger anymore. This makes some sense with all the data showing lower income brackets have been hit the most with layoffs.

The deposit increase could also be a function of increased requirements from lenders.

Wouldn’t the same be true in other markets across the country if this were the case? Especially in peer cities with lower cost of living? We seem to have an abnormally high down payment relative to national average and our peers.


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Kansas City: Average Price $224k (up 9.4%). PSF up 7.1%. 18 days in market average.

Indy: Average Price $185k (up 12.1%). Avg 8 days on market.

Cincy: Average Price $195k (up 12.8%). Avg 49 days on market.

Pitt: Average Price $206k (up 11.8%). Avg 64 days on market

STL City(what was posted above): Average Price $197k (up 9.4%). Avg. 25 days on market.

My hypothesis is that urban jurisdictions such as STL, Cincy, and Pitt have higher down payments than cities that have a mix of suburbs and urban (KC and Indy.)


Let’s dig deeper into #2 by exploring suburb vs urban market data from Redfin.

- STL County: Average Price $232k (up 12.7%). Avg 44 days on the market with a 3% down payment.
- Downtown KC sub-market has an average time of 46 days on market and 20% down payment (not far off from STL City).
- Hamilton Ohio, a large Cincy suburb, has down payments of just 1.8%.
- Jefferson Hills, ranked one of the best Pitt suburbs, has an average down payment of 5%

That’s a good hypothesis. Seems we’re still sitting higher than peers.


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^ Does that Redfin data on down payments include the large amount of cash transactions on STL City investment properties? That would be my guess.

STLrainbow wrote:^ Does that Redfin data on down payments include the large amount of cash transactions on STL City investment properties? That would be my guess.

That’s a good point, too. Didn’t think about that.


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STLrainbow wrote: ↑

Aug 10, 2020

^ Does that Redfin data on down payments include the large amount of cash transactions on STL City investment properties? That would be my guess.

Is that more prevalent here vs KC? 

^ I haven't seen data, but I suspect there's a large difference on all cash sales b/w a high flip market like STL CIty and large city markets like KC and Indy, but for more central KC and Indy that gap would narrow some... i.e I think there's a correlation b/w % of all cash sales and availability of cheap "center city" properties getting the attention of investors/flippers, many from outside the region. 

Would our land tax sale have been included in these numbers? That would impact things pretty dramatically


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SeattleNative wrote: ↑

Aug 10, 2020

Would our land tax sale have been included in these numbers? That would impact things pretty dramatically


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I doubt it. Doesn't their data come from the MLS?

Yeah I think so. Good to know that’s not manipulating the data then.


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Dang!  If the St. Louis market really is this hot, I kinda wish we could put our in-process rehab up now and see what it could get. 

If anyone's looking for a 3 bed, 2 bath in Botanical Heights that won't be completed till late November or early December, let me know. 

I think this is less about COVID or real estate market "heat" as much as it is the demographic shifts of the past 20 years finally manifesting in STL. Rich and educated whites have been moving to the city while poor blacks have been leaving. Neighborhoods that were once considered "sketchy" to the average West County folk have now tipped past the point of gentrification.

There is only a limited amount of truly urban space in the region and most of it is in STL City. Even without regional population growth, the city is likely to become even more expensive as the rich whites move in and poor blacks are forced to aging suburbs.