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PostJul 27, 2020#26

I'm tired of this "I don't like the candidate" business. I understand it, but a vote for the candidate is really a vote for the party, the party's agenda, and the party's appointments. A Democratic president, any Democratic president, will work more closely with a Democratic House or Senate and vice versa. Any Democratic president, no matter how conservative, is more likely to listen to and compromise with Democrats in Congress than any Republican. You get more done when the legislature and executive work together. You get less done when they're divided. Trump got more done before the midterms because his party held the House. Same for Obama. But the converse of that is that if you like some lower profile figure in the legislature better, then it behooves you to vote for an executive that will more likely cooperate with that figure. At least your person will be in the room. Vote the party. Vote the person in the primary and the party in the general election. It's really as simple as that.

And if you don't like the way either party is headed volunteer with the one you like better. Go to meetings. Canvas. Change it. Party agendas are set by party delegates who vote at conventions. Those delegates are selected by party volunteers and members. Pay your dues. Put in your work. Have a voice in your preferred party. You might actually meet your legislators that way, your state representatives, your congressmen, even your senators. (Mind you, it helps to have folks elected from your party, which . . . tends to happen a lot more often when folks knock on doors and talk to people.)

As to third parties, sure, it's theoretically possible for a third party to make a difference, but it's a lot more likely at the local level where a third party candidate can get the visibility needed to get elected. Get your third party on the school board, or the board of aldermen. Short of a miracle unprecedented in the history of the United States your third party darling won't be elected. At best they'll spoil the election for the party you don't like. At worst they'll spoil it for yours. It's not even just a matter of money. Your fancy and famous third party candidate can have all the money in the world and still lose because they don't have people on the ground volunteering for them. Because they don't have the built in backing. Because they don't have allies in Congress or on the evening news.

In the end . . . vote. And if you can find the energy and if you can do so safely . . . volunteer.

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PostJul 27, 2020#27

I really don't get the whole obsession with third parties. The two main parties in the US are among the most ideologically diverse in the universe of dominant parties in advanced political systems. Party primaries are effectively races between the smaller parties that comprise the large parties. Once a dominant faction emerges, it typically has to compromise with some or all of the losing factions. Go to any European country with 5, 6, 7 parties in parliament; in none of those party primaries tend to be a big deal. Yet whoever wins a plurality of the vote has to compromise with a couple of smaller parties in order to get anything done in the legislature. It's exactly the same system but with different labels and on a different order: in the US you get to compromise first and dispute the election after; in multi-party parliamentary systems you run the election first and compromise later. If anything the US system is more transparent as you already know what you are voting for, and there are no post-election changes of policies because of the need to appease a smaller party that is further to the right or to the left. People make a big deal out of this but I think it's completely overblown,

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PostJul 27, 2020#28

kipfilet wrote:
Jul 27, 2020
I really don't get the whole obsession with third parties. 
I think it's a combination of self-superiority and inability to see the forest for the trees.

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PostJul 27, 2020#29

ricke002 wrote:
Jul 27, 2020
kipfilet wrote:
Jul 27, 2020
I really don't get the whole obsession with third parties. 
I think it's a combination of self-superiority and inability to see the forest for the trees.

Until we have ranked choice voting nation wide voting 3rd party will continue to be a wasted vote that only serves the major parry that is farthest from your viewpoint.

I don't think the assorted third parties this year will get anywhere near the 6% they received 4 years ago.

2016 Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson was a kindly pot smoking former Governor running with another respected moderate Republican Governor from tbe Northeast. They got 3.5% of the vote nationwide. This year the nominee Jo Jorgensen is unknown and sounds like tbe typical Libertarian nominee who wants no government--not exactly a winning pitch when the nation is gripped by a pandemic and double digit unemployment. My guess is they struggle to receive 1%

The Greens sound like a good hippie organozation that wants to save Mother Earth. But their nominee from 2016--Jill Stein--had closer ties to Mother Russia. This year's nominee is no name Howie Hawkins. The Greens got 1.5% in 2016--they'll get a fraction of that this year.

Then there was Evan McMullen--who was only on the ballot in a few states in 2016 as the "conservative alternative" to Trump. While he got 20% in his home state of Utah in most other states he was just a write in. Still, many of the prominent conservatives who suppprted his run last time like Bill Kristol and George Will--are now openly backing Biden.

This tends to happen in the next election after third parties are seen as swinging the vote one direction or another. A lot of voters who previously cast protest votes pick a side. The 3rd party share of the vote dropped from almost 4% in 2000 to only 1% in 2004. I expect a similar drop in 3rd parties this year.

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PostJul 27, 2020#30

symphonicpoet wrote:
Jul 27, 2020
I'm tired of this "I don't like the candidate" business. I understand it, but a vote for the candidate is really a vote for the party, the party's agenda, and the party's appointments. A Democratic president, any Democratic president, will work more closely with a Democratic House or Senate and vice versa. Any Democratic president, no matter how conservative, is more likely to listen to and compromise with Democrats in Congress than any Republican. You get more done when the legislature and executive work together. You get less done when they're divided. Trump got more done before the midterms because his party held the House. Same for Obama. But the converse of that is that if you like some lower profile figure in the legislature better, then it behooves you to vote for an executive that will more likely cooperate with that figure. At least your person will be in the room. Vote the party. Vote the person in the primary and the party in the general election. It's really as simple as that.

And if you don't like the way either party is headed volunteer with the one you like better. Go to meetings. Canvas. Change it. Party agendas are set by party delegates who vote at conventions. Those delegates are selected by party volunteers and members. Pay your dues. Put in your work. Have a voice in your preferred party. You might actually meet your legislators that way, your state representatives, your congressmen, even your senators. (Mind you, it helps to have folks elected from your party, which . . . tends to happen a lot more often when folks knock on doors and talk to people.)

As to third parties, sure, it's theoretically possible for a third party to make a difference, but it's a lot more likely at the local level where a third party candidate can get the visibility needed to get elected. Get your third party on the school board, or the board of aldermen. Short of a miracle unprecedented in the history of the United States your third party darling won't be elected. At best they'll spoil the election for the party you don't like. At worst they'll spoil it for yours. It's not even just a matter of money. Your fancy and famous third party candidate can have all the money in the world and still lose because they don't have people on the ground volunteering for them. Because they don't have the built in backing. Because they don't have allies in Congress or on the evening news.

In the end . . . vote. And if you can find the energy and if you can do so safely . . . volunteer.
Nice post!

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PostJul 27, 2020#31

I don't know why y'all waste your time talking about this. All that matters is what happens November 3rd.

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PostJul 28, 2020#32

Biden wins by 8.3% in national popular vote, wins Electoral College 368-170. He flips Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nebraska-02 (Nebraska is one of the two quirky states that doesn't award EVs on a winner-take-all basis).

Democrats gain 10 house seats.

Democrats win senate races in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Montana, and the Georgia seat currently occupied by David Perdue (Doug Collins will win Kelly Loeffler's seat). Doug Jones loses his seat, but by a fairly close margin of less than 5 points. Democrats hold a 52-48 senate majority in the next Congress.

PostJul 28, 2020#33

ricke002 wrote:
Jul 24, 2020
dbInSouthCity wrote:
Jul 24, 2020
ricke002 wrote:
Jul 24, 2020
I love the irony that if he hadn't pushed for the economy to open back up so quickly (because he knew that was his shot at reelection), he'd probably be sailing towards reelection right now.  Instead he keeps kicking the football as he's trying to pick it up and handing it to Biden.  
Trumps floor and ceiling aren’t too far apart. He’s approval is 38-40% today to 41-44 when the economy was good. That’s why his top number for vote share is probably around 45%, so without a major 3rd party candidate and without a full out voter suppression plan I can’t see how Biden doesn’t win the popular vote by 10,000,000
I just don't think there's much (or, at least, there wasn't on March 15th) enthusiasm for Biden.  I think he'll coast to a sizeable victory at this point, and I will be voting for him. But I'd also be thrilled if he stepped down on 1/21/21 and passed the presidency on to his VP, Elizabeth Warren.  (Who then herself, chose a younger, progressive/moderate-progressive to take the reigns for the 2024 election.)     
I'll be shocked if Warren is the VP. I don't say that out of animosity - she had my vote in the primaries. I'll just be quite surprised if it isn't an African-American woman. Kamala Harris, Susan Rice, Karen Bass, or Keisha Lance-Bottoms.

PostJul 28, 2020#34

robbie wrote:
Jul 26, 2020
-While Trump is more likely to win MO, the polling indicates a much closer race this year than in 2016. Remember Obama lost MO in 2008 by less than one percentage point.
3,903 votes to be exact - out of nearly 3 million votes cast that year in the Show-Me state. Final margin was 0.13%, and it wound up being the closest state in the entire country. It was also the very last state to actually have a winner called, and it wasn't until several days after the election. Up until that point, Missouri had a pretty long track-record as a state that almost always picked the winner, regardless of party. From 1904-2004 (with the lone exception of 1956), however Missouri went was how the nation went. Obama was the first president in my lifetime to lose Missouri but still win the election.

PostJul 28, 2020#35

ibleedlou wrote:
Jul 26, 2020
Perhaps if things continue along this path, non voters will spark a more viable third party in the future, because as it stands today, if a party sends Donald Duck forward, a good majority of the tribe will gladly endorse.
You will never live to see a third party candidate make a serious run at the presidency as long as allegedly serious third parties continue to believe they can skip straight to the presidency without actually winning a bunch of seats in Congress and governorships first. The only purpose they serve in presidential races is to act as spoilers. And that's been true for 200+ years now.

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PostJul 28, 2020#36

DTGstl314 wrote:
Jul 28, 2020
ibleedlou wrote:
Jul 26, 2020
Perhaps if things continue along this path, non voters will spark a more viable third party in the future, because as it stands today, if a party sends Donald Duck forward, a good majority of the tribe will gladly endorse.
You will never live to see a third party candidate make a serious run at the presidency as long as allegedly serious third parties continue to believe they can skip straight to the presidency without actually winning a bunch of seats in Congress and governorships first. The only purpose they serve in presidential races is to act as spoilers. And that's been true for 200+ years now.
Probably not. Oh well, I'm not a professional politico so I guess I'll vote for one of the ducks, or not, like everyone else.

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PostJul 28, 2020#37

ricke002 wrote:
Jul 26, 2020
dbInSouthCity wrote:
Jul 26, 2020
You are voting just for Biden or Trump- you are voting for the next secretary of transportation, of HUD or state, of defense, of DHS etc. do you not see the damage this current circus show has done.
More importantly, I think, would be at least the next opening on the Supreme Court. I doubt RBG is looking to stay on until 2024 and Thomas is no spring chicken himself.
I'll be legitimately pissed if RBG doesn't retire next year (assuming Biden wins).

Sorry, but I don't really love the fate of the Republic depending on an 87 year old quadruple cancer survivor (who currently has cancer again) not dying while Republicans control the future of SCOTUS. I won't feel safe about her seat until January 3rd, 2021 (when the 117th Congress convenes), and only then if the Democrats have retaken the senate majority.

Trump and the GOP could get absolutely crushed in November, and if RBG died on Christmas Day, Leonard Leo would have Amy Coney Barrett queued up for her confirmation hearings on December 26th, and she would be sworn into the seat before the new year.

Ginsburg and Breyer both need to retire before the 2022 midterms if Biden wins and Democrats control the senate. It's the only way to ensure we don't wind up with a 6-3 wingnut majority the next time McTortoise or one of his acolytes controls the upper chamber.

PostJul 28, 2020#38

Baltimore Jack wrote:
Jul 27, 2020
ricke002 wrote:
Jul 27, 2020
kipfilet wrote:
Jul 27, 2020
I really don't get the whole obsession with third parties. 
I think it's a combination of self-superiority and inability to see the forest for the trees.

Until we have ranked choice voting nation wide voting 3rd party will continue to be a wasted vote that only serves the major parry that is farthest from your viewpoint.

I don't think the assorted third parties this year will get anywhere near the 6% they received 4 years ago.

2016 Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson was a kindly pot smoking former Governor running with another  respected moderate Republican Governor from tbe Northeast. They got 3.5% of the vote nationwide. This year the nominee Jo Jorgensen is unknown and sounds like tbe typical Libertarian nominee who wants no government--not exactly a winning pitch when the nation is gripped by a pandemic and double digit unemployment. My guess is they struggle to receive 1%

The Greens sound like a good hippie organozation that wants to save Mother Earth. But their nominee from 2016--Jill Stein--had closer ties to Mother Russia. This year's nominee is no name Howie Hawkins. The Greens got 1.5% in 2016--they'll get a fraction of that this year.

Then there was Evan McMullen--who was only on the ballot in a few states in 2016 as the "conservative alternative" to Trump. While he got 20% in his home state of Utah in most other states he was just a write in. Still, many of the prominent conservatives who suppprted his run last time like Bill Kristol and George Will--are now openly backing Biden.

This tends to happen in the next election after third parties are seen as swinging the vote one direction or another. A lot of voters who previously cast protest votes  pick a side. The 3rd party share of the vote dropped from almost 4% in 2000 to only 1% in 2004. I expect a similar drop in 3rd parties this year.
Third parties usually have much less of an impact on presidential races with an incumbent than they do on races where the presidency is open, 1992 notwithstanding. Third parties had much stronger showings in 2000, 2008, and 2016 than they did in either 2004 or 2012.

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PostJul 28, 2020#39

DTGstl314 wrote:
Jul 28, 2020
ricke002 wrote:
Jul 24, 2020
But I'd also be thrilled if he stepped down on 1/21/21 and passed the presidency on to his VP, Elizabeth Warren.  (Who then herself, chose a younger, progressive/moderate-progressive to take the reigns for the 2024 election.)     
I'll be shocked if Warren is the VP. I don't say that out of animosity - she had my vote in the primaries. I'll just be quite surprised if it isn't an African-American woman. Kamala Harris, Susan Rice, Karen Bass, or Keisha Lance-Bottoms.
Yes, I too voted/caucused for her in my state's primary, as she was the most genuine, well-spoken and knowledgeable candidate I saw speak.  I didn't say I thought she would be his VP, just that I'd like to see it happen.  I also don't think he'll step down on Inauguration Day +1 like I posited, but it's fun to dream.  

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PostAug 11, 2020#40

So, the Democratic presidential ticket is solidified...



Thoughts?

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PostAug 11, 2020#41

VP picks dont really matter that much in the grand scheme of things but i am looking forward to the Harris vs Pence debate. 

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PostAug 12, 2020#42

dbInSouthCity wrote:
Aug 11, 2020
VP picks dont really matter that much in the grand scheme of things but i am looking forward to the Harris vs Pence debate. 
There is an argument to be made that in this coming election the VP picks are the election itself.

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PostAug 12, 2020#43

DTGstl314 wrote:
Aug 11, 2020
So, the Democratic presidential ticket is solidified...



Thoughts?
Not super jazzed about Harris/[VP Candidate] 2024, but...

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PostAug 13, 2020#44

Oof. Got a bad feeling that Biden and the Dems just threw the election with the VP pick. Horrible optics to go with two "tough on crime" candidates considering the last couple of months of protests against the very thing that Biden and Harris are known for.

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PostAug 13, 2020#45

Trololzilla wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
Oof. Got a bad feeling that Biden and the Dems just threw the election with the VP pick. Horrible optics to go with two "tough on crime" candidates considering the last couple of months of protests against the very thing that Biden and Harris are known for.
They’ve raised $26,000,000 since the announcement yesterday.....it was a very good choice but he could have chosen a ham sandwich and still be fine. Amount of people that will literally run to the polls to vote Trump out makes it irrelevant who is on the other side

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PostAug 13, 2020#46

Trololzilla wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
Oof. Got a bad feeling that Biden and the Dems just threw the election with the VP pick. Horrible optics to go with two "tough on crime" candidates considering the last couple of months of protests against the very thing that Biden and Harris are known for.
I've never seen any evidence that people vote based on VP choice (as long as the VP choice is within a normal bound of reasonableness as Kamala clearly is). 

Also important to remember -the vast majority of people want safe neighborhoods.  Saying you are against crime is a pretty popular position across racial/economic/geographical lines.  Being against crime but trying to find better ways to fight/prevent it while limiting community damage is a pretty damn popular position to take.

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PostAug 13, 2020#47

mjbais1489 wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
Trololzilla wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
Oof. Got a bad feeling that Biden and the Dems just threw the election with the VP pick. Horrible optics to go with two "tough on crime" candidates considering the last couple of months of protests against the very thing that Biden and Harris are known for.
I've never seen any evidence that people vote based on VP choice (as long as the VP choice is within a normal bound of reasonableness as Kamala clearly is).
Not your usual VP choice though is it? As should the ticket win in November, she is likely to be President before the next election...

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PostAug 13, 2020#48

mjbais1489 wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
Also important to remember -the vast majority of people want safe neighborhoods.  Saying you are against crime is a pretty popular position across racial/economic/geographical lines.  Being against crime but trying to find better ways to fight/prevent it while limiting community damage is a pretty damn popular position to take.
I mean sure, but the gist of it for a lot of people boils down to:


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PostAug 13, 2020#49

urbanitas wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
mjbais1489 wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
Trololzilla wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
Oof. Got a bad feeling that Biden and the Dems just threw the election with the VP pick. Horrible optics to go with two "tough on crime" candidates considering the last couple of months of protests against the very thing that Biden and Harris are known for.
I've never seen any evidence that people vote based on VP choice (as long as the VP choice is within a normal bound of reasonableness as Kamala clearly is).
Not your usual VP choice though is it? As should the ticket win in November, she is likely to be President before the next election...
She is not a white man, so no, she is not the "usual" choice.  Nor has she ever had a radio show in Indiana being afraid of the animated movie "Mulan", so I don' t know how she'd be qualified. 

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PostAug 13, 2020#50

Trololzilla wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
mjbais1489 wrote:
Aug 13, 2020
Also important to remember -the vast majority of people want safe neighborhoods.  Saying you are against crime is a pretty popular position across racial/economic/geographical lines.  Being against crime but trying to find better ways to fight/prevent it while limiting community damage is a pretty damn popular position to take.
I mean sure, but the gist of it for a lot of people boils down to:

My point is - perhaps a lot of certain activist communities feel that way.  Im not convinced there is a large share of people who vote who will change their vote (or not vote) based on this tickets perceived toughness on crime.  Certainly did not hurt Joe Biden's effort to win the primary.

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