I know ya wanna talk about it but i also know this thread can go sideways in about 13 seconds  but lets give it a shot 

People I follow for the 2020 elections
The Economist - G.Elliot Morris is very good at what he does.  He was on the money for the 2018 Midterms and his model gave Trump about 35% shot in 2016 (more of a shot than the Blues had to beat the Bruins) 
his 2020 model is here
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president

Another is a young kid named Cory McCartan, he is doing something totally different and combining 3 models into one.   He also has the House and Senate forecasts 
https://corymccartan.github.io/projects/president-20/

 for polling aggregates- 538 or RealClearPolitics 

Now before someone foams at the mouth about the 2016 polls-  the 2016 national poll of averages had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3 and she won by 2.1  thats very accurate.  the miss of the 2016 polls was state polls in battleground states that didnt weigh for education, thats since been corrected and in 2018 it showed the Dems winning by 8 and they vote by 9 all the House races combined.  

With all that said-   How does Biden win?   by winning his home state of PA and also winning Wisconsin and Michigan....he is up in all of those and Arizona and Florida and Texas is close.   

How does Trump win?  look its no secret that i think this guy is the most un-american president ever and a babbling idiot- that aside the only way he wins is suppression of  minority vote in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin in urban centers.  His entire campaign right now is white grievances and that blacks are going to come to the suburbs if you vote Biden  

100+ day out prediction
Biden popular vote by 8 and 333 in EC
Dems keep the house and add 5 more seats
Dems take the Senate 51-49 

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Jul 24, 2020

Here is where the betting markets are

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Biden 60%
Trump 37%

Dem senate 62%
Gop senate 38%

Dem house 85%
Gop house 15%

I love the irony that if he hadn't pushed for the economy to open back up so quickly (because he knew that was his shot at reelection), he'd probably be sailing towards reelection right now.  Instead he keeps kicking the football as he's trying to pick it up and handing it to Biden.  

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Jul 24, 2020

Dems take the Senate 51-49 

I think you are underestimating this... I see D pickups in AZ, CO, MT, NC, IA & ME as quite likely while only losing AL.  A pickup of one of the 2 GA seats is also possible.

ricke002 wrote: ↑

Jul 24, 2020

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Jul 24, 2020

Here is where the betting markets are

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Biden 60%
Trump 37%

Dem senate 62%
Gop senate 38%

Dem house 85%
Gop house 15%

I love the irony that if he hadn't pushed for the economy to open back up so quickly (because he knew that was his shot at reelection), he'd probably be sailing towards reelection right now.  Instead he keeps kicking the football as he's trying to pick it up and handing it to Biden.  

Trumps floor and ceiling aren’t too far apart. He’s approval is 38-40% today to 41-44 when the economy was good. That’s why his top number for vote share is probably around 45%, so without a major 3rd party candidate and without a full out voter suppression plan I can’t see how Biden doesn’t win the popular vote by 10,000,000

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Jul 24, 2020

ricke002 wrote: ↑

Jul 24, 2020

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Jul 24, 2020

Here is where the betting markets are

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Biden 60%
Trump 37%

Dem senate 62%
Gop senate 38%

Dem house 85%
Gop house 15%

I love the irony that if he hadn't pushed for the economy to open back up so quickly (because he knew that was his shot at reelection), he'd probably be sailing towards reelection right now.  Instead he keeps kicking the football as he's trying to pick it up and handing it to Biden.  

Trumps floor and ceiling aren’t too far apart. He’s approval is 38-40% today to 41-44 when the economy was good. That’s why his top number for vote share is probably around 45%, so without a major 3rd party candidate and without a full out voter suppression plan I can’t see how Biden doesn’t win the popular vote by 10,000,000

I just don't think there's much (or, at least, there wasn't on March 15th) enthusiasm for Biden.  I think he'll coast to a sizeable victory at this point, and I will be voting for him. But I'd also be thrilled if he stepped down on 1/21/21 and passed the presidency on to his VP, Elizabeth Warren.  (Who then herself, chose a younger, progressive/moderate-progressive to take the reigns for the 2024 election.)   

  

National Journal warns political death spiral” and “a historic tsunami, wiping out all their avenues of power in a rebuke against a hapless president.”

Josh Kraushaar is a very careful anylyst who stays tethered to the numbers. So this should petrify Republicans.

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/70865 ... epublicans

The only way Biden loses at this point is by doing something really stupid. All he has to do is play it safe and not really screw up the debates. Even if he does screw them up it might not matter.

I've soured on Trump since 2016 but don't like Biden. I'm not going to vote for the Federal portion of the election this Fall and will instead stick to Local and Statewide measures and candidates. I live in Congressional District 2 and I don't plan on voting for Wagner or Schupp either. Besides, what difference does it make who I vote for President in Missouri? 

I believe we can have more progress made at the State and Local level than federal. No matter what, it's better to have strong State and Local governments than federal since local leaders are under the microscope of a lot of their constituents meanwhile the ones in DC are sitting up there collecting a check and forgetting about the people they should be representing. The politicians in DC vote by party affiliation far too often and I really don't like that. I know that a majority of Republicans don't want to work with Democrats and I know that to be true the other way around but there are some representatives on both sides willing to work with each other, I just wish there were more. I think then we could be a more unified country rather than the politically divided one we are now if we had a Congress willing to work together and not b**** all the time.

Regarding Trump and Biden, I personally think they are both dopes with declining mental health. And honestly, Trump will throw a fit if he looses and I think that attacks on Biden's running mate will be more prevalent than ones on him since I don't think a lot of people expect him to serve a full term. Maybe he does, I don't know. I don't care who wins here, just look ahead to 2024 when we can get competent candidates on both sides and hopefully ones that can reunite this country under a common cause and not some political party motivated bullsh*t.

None of the above, again, two elections in a row. Disappointing to say the least.

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

The only way Biden loses at this point is by doing something really stupid. All he has to do is play it safe and not really screw up the debates. Even if he does screw them up it might not matter.

I agree. Biden seemed to take that tack and did well enough in the primary debates against much stiffer competition. I just don't see them really moving the needle. It's kind of a testament to how poorly Trump is doing in the polls and campaigning that the debates are now being built up as a sort of Hail Mary for him. 

chriss752 wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

 I'm not going to vote for the Federal portion of the election this Fall

And that's how Trump became president...

“Elections belong to the people. It's their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.”

― Abraham Lincoln

chriss752 wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

I've soured on Trump since 2016 but don't like Biden. I'm not going to vote for the Federal portion of the election this Fall and will instead stick to Local and Statewide measures and candidates. I live in Congressional District 2 and I don't plan on voting for Wagner or Schupp either. Besides, what difference does it make who I vote for President in Missouri?.

A few thoughts here:
-While Trump is more likely to win MO, the polling indicates a much closer race this year than in 2016. Remember Obama lost MO in 2008 by less than one percentage point.
-While I understand your perspective on federal vs. state elections, I disagree. Some of the biggest issues of our times will be settled at a federal level. Imagine if we had a coherent federal policy or response to COVID-19 in March (that did not politicize wearing of masks) instead of a patchwork or state and local policies? Not saying it would have been perfect, but we’d likely be in a much better place. Other examples of the critical nature of an effective (and, in my opinion), left leaning federal government include responses to climate change, healthcare policy, response to historical/institutional racism, and housing/urban development. The latter certainly relates to matters that many of us who frequent this forum deem important.
-I could argue that since MO has trended more conservative over the last 20 years and those of us in the metro areas have ceded power to the rural and exurban populations, a stronger left-leaning federal government requires the state to follow certain rules that it otherwise wouldn’t do on its own, including those I listed above.

I’d be happy to discuss more outside of this forum. I urge you to reconsider the power that your voice has at all levels of government. There are many a political consultant and candidate who use voter apathy as a strategy; don’t prove them correct.

Not voting is a vote for the incumbent.    Not voting for Biden, a decent man from a middle class family from Scranton PA who took a daily 4 hour train ride each day when he was Congressman just so he can spent time with his kids over a guy who is alone at the top for the most un American And worst President in history is criminal.

Just listen to Republican Lindsay Graham

robbie wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

chriss752 wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

I've soured on Trump since 2016 but don't like Biden. I'm not going to vote for the Federal portion of the election this Fall and will instead stick to Local and Statewide measures and candidates. I live in Congressional District 2 and I don't plan on voting for Wagner or Schupp either. Besides, what difference does it make who I vote for President in Missouri?.

Remember Obama lost MO in 2008 by less than one percentage point

My argument would be if Obama lost in 08 (and by almost 10 points in 2012) then how in the world do you think Biden will win? If Obama couldn't win Missouri then Biden isn't winning Missouri. It will be closer than the 17 points it was last election but I would be surprised if he got within 5 and I think it will be around 10 points.

________
I don't want to hear people tell me a 3rd party or not voting is a vote for Trump. A vote for Biden is a loser vote just like 3rd party or not voting. Trump will win Missouri and any other vote is technically a throw away vote. Just like any vote in Illinois for anyone but Biden is throw away vote. Vote for who you want. It isn't going to make a difference in the end, so if you don't want to vote for Biden or Trump then don't make people pressure you into it. It is your vote, not theirs. 

chriss752 wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

I've soured on Trump since 2016 but don't like Biden. I'm not going to vote for the Federal portion of the election this Fall and will instead stick to Local and Statewide measures and candidates. I live in Congressional District 2 and I don't plan on voting for Wagner or Schupp either. Besides, what difference does it make who I vote for President in Missouri? 

I believe we can have more progress made at the State and Local level than federal. No matter what, it's better to have strong State and Local governments than federal since local leaders are under the microscope of a lot of their constituents meanwhile the ones in DC are sitting up there collecting a check and forgetting about the people they should be representing. The politicians in DC vote by party affiliation far too often and I really don't like that. I know that a majority of Republicans don't want to work with Democrats and I know that to be true the other way around but there are some representatives on both sides willing to work with each other, I just wish there were more. I think then we could be a more unified country rather than the politically divided one we are now if we had a Congress willing to work together and not b**** all the time.

Regarding Trump and Biden, I personally think they are both dopes with declining mental health. And honestly, Trump will throw a fit if he looses and I think that attacks on Biden's running mate will be more prevalent than ones on him since I don't think a lot of people expect him to serve a full term. Maybe he does, I don't know. I don't care who wins here, just look ahead to 2024 when we can get competent candidates on both sides and hopefully ones that can reunite this country under a common cause and not some political party motivated bullsh*t.

I'd like to see someone else represent the 2nd district.  Ann Wagner has focused on one issue -- sex trafficking -- which is commendable and non-controversial.  But there are other issues along with that one that we need our rep to address.  She is anti-ACA and shouted "freedom" when the House of Representatives voted to repeal it a few years ago.  (McCain in the Senate stopped the repeal.)  

After eight years in Congress, she's still invisible.  And she is apparently terrified to hold an auditorium McCaskill-style town hall open to all constituents, free and announced ahead of time.

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

robbie wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

chriss752 wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

I've soured on Trump since 2016 but don't like Biden. I'm not going to vote for the Federal portion of the election this Fall and will instead stick to Local and Statewide measures and candidates. I live in Congressional District 2 and I don't plan on voting for Wagner or Schupp either. Besides, what difference does it make who I vote for President in Missouri?.

Remember Obama lost MO in 2008 by less than one percentage point

My argument would be if Obama lost in 08 (and by almost 10 points in 2012) then how in the world do you think Biden will win? If Obama couldn't win Missouri then Biden isn't winning Missouri. It will be closer than the 17 points it was last election but I would be surprised if he got within 5 and I think it will be around 10 points.

Trump won Missouri by 19 in 2016, Last Missouri poll had trump up 7 pts vs Biden. If everyone who says Missouri doesn’t matter so I’ll skip the top line actually voted the top line 7 pts isn’t too much to close considering the free fall Trump is in due to covid

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

I don't want to hear people tell me a 3rd party or not voting is a vote for Trump. A vote for Biden is a loser vote just like 3rd party or not voting. Trump will win Missouri and any other vote is technically a throw away vote. Just like any vote in Illinois for anyone but Biden is throw away vote. Vote for who you want. It isn't going to make a difference in the end, so if you don't want to vote for Biden or Trump then don't make people pressure you into it. It is your vote, not theirs. 

I agree that, if you truly don't like either candidate equally, then don't vote for them or vote for a third party that you do like.

But it's just not true that not voting in MO isn't going to make a difference. The election is won and lost in the electoral college, but there is still something to be said for the popular vote. The fact that Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3,000,000 votes marginalized his mandate, put an asterisks by his election, and showed that he had a lot of work to do to bring the country together and bring folks around to his side. Sure, winning the popular is a pyric victory, but it still sends a message - and it's big swings in the results of states like Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky or oppositely New York, California, Massachusetts, that - even though they don't shift each state's electoral college votes - send that message. 

Also, it's really important for the allocation of resources of future elections. If Missouri is lost by 0-5%, then the RNC or DNC is more likely to allocate resources to its campaigns - even down ballot ones - in following elections. It will be lost, but still be considered "winnable", with the right candidate/campaign. It gives the parties, candidates, campaign strategists, etc... a better sense of what direction things are moving in. Certainly not the most inspiring reason to vote, but it still has implications. 

If Biden shows well leading up to November, he can always change my tune, whereas the opposition is not an option. However,
voting for the 'lessor of two evils', including voting for a guy with the onset of Alzheimer's and acting as if he is a viable candidate, is not how I wish to cast my vote. I'm not emotionally invested so much that I would vote for just anyone my party puts forward, simply to oppose the status quo, not at this time. Perhaps if things continue along this path, non voters will spark a more viable third party in the future, because as it stands today, if a party sends Donald Duck forward, a good majority of the tribe will gladly endorse. I prefer not to be someone who votes, just to vote, so we can continue along this downward path, even if my non vote is considered a so called vote for Trump.

^ no offense, but i'm sure the people who's lives are being destroyed by Trump and the current admin would totes understand that voting for the "lesser evil" makes you feel all sad inside. not voting doesn't ensure a better candidate next cycle—that work has to be done in tandem. not voting will just ensure that the party less likely to allow that to happen will stay in power.

You are voting just for Biden or Trump- you are voting for the next secretary of transportation, of HUD or state, of defense, of DHS etc. do you not see the damage this current circus show has done. My mom couldn’t get in Austria for her sisters wedding because Americans are banned. Our passports are worthless, our former allies don’t respect us, our enemies think we are a joke. You’re voting to regain that and if you are having a hard time choosing between the person who put us in this situation and Biden, you need to see a shrink

urban_dilettante wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

^ no offense, but i'm sure the people who's lives are being destroyed by Trump and the current admin would totes understand that voting for the "lesser evil" makes you feel all sad inside. not voting doesn't ensure a better candidate next cycle—that work has to be done in tandem. not voting will just ensure that the party less likely to allow that to happen will stay in power.

Your words are compelling and no, I do not wish to assist the Trump, but I do expect more from those I align myself with. I also understand I'm voting for more than the President and yes, this has been a circus. I'll put more thought into this as we move closer to November.

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Jul 26, 2020

You are voting just for Biden or Trump- you are voting for the next secretary of transportation, of HUD or state, of defense, of DHS etc. do you not see the damage this current circus show has done.

More importantly, I think, would be at least the next opening on the Supreme Court. I doubt RBG is looking to stay on until 2024 and Thomas is no spring chicken himself.