I'm hoping it's about as close as Regan/Mondaleimperialmog wrote: ↑Aug 14, 2020I'm trying to figure out what election may be the closest parallel to how this one will turn out? 1968? 2000? 1860?
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The whole USPS situation is absolutely outrageous. Tons of conflicts of interest with the PM General and this happens. Classic example of Republicans destroying a public institution from the inside just so that they can say "told ya" after the institution runs to the ground.
Oh lovely. Isn't it great that these people are going to be representing our fine city at Donald Trump's "Be scared, white people!!!" convention next week?
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It’s like you have to commit at least a felony or 6 to speak at the Trump convention. And I don’t even call it a Republican convention, what’s left of the real GOP is speaking at the DNC this week including former GOP Gov on Ohio, New Jersey and GOP California gov candidate Meg Whitman
Highest ranking Trump admin official to date to endorse Biden and if what he says doesn’t scare you about our national security you should start learning Russia
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But also, f that guy. Unless he starts working for progressive candidates and has a LOT of apologies in his pocket, all he's doing is trying to save his own face in the post-Trump GOP, or whatever is left of it. Screw him. Why'd he wait until now?dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Aug 18, 2020Highest ranking Trump admin official to date to endorse Biden and if what he says doesn’t scare you about our national security you should start learning Russia
I think 210,000 is almost certainly lowballing it.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Aug 13, 2020The sitting president is responsible for 165,000 deaths and 210,000 by election. $3,500,000,000,000 deficit in a single year (higher than last 4 years of Obama combined and we are suppose to worry about Biden writing a crime bill in the 90s that had broad support?
JHU has us at 175,000 deaths as of this moment, and CTP has the figure at 167,000. Even if we assume CTP's numbers are the more accurate ones, a death total of 210K by the election is just 43,000 more deaths over the next 73 days, an average of just 589/day. The 7 day rolling average has been over 1,000/day for nearly a month now, and while the numbers do appear to be going down a little, we have no idea at this point what impact a potential autumnal second wave might have, and when that impact might be felt. IHME (which I know you think is garbage) currently projects just under 258,000 deaths by November 3rd.
Will it be that high? No idea. But I'm willing to bet that the figure will probably be closer to 250,000 deaths than 210,000 deaths when the polls open on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
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There are people who will be celebrating their 30th birthday this year or next or next 3 and they’ve seen the GOP win the popular vote just once in their lifetime
A lot about Nov is unknown but what is definitely going to happen is Biden is going to win the most votes & that means just 1 time between 1992 & 2024 that the GOP candidate won the most votes (Bush 2004)
Clinton 92
Clinton 96
Gore 2000
Bush 04
Obama 08
Obama 12
Clinton 16
A lot about Nov is unknown but what is definitely going to happen is Biden is going to win the most votes & that means just 1 time between 1992 & 2024 that the GOP candidate won the most votes (Bush 2004)
Clinton 92
Clinton 96
Gore 2000
Bush 04
Obama 08
Obama 12
Clinton 16
Technically, everyone whose 32nd birthday occurs after November 8th is in this group (if you turn 32 on November 9th, you were born the day after George H.W. Bush was elected).dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Aug 22, 2020There are people who will be celebrating their 30th birthday this year or next or next 3 and they’ve seen the GOP win the popular vote just once in their lifetime
A lot about Nov is unknown but what is definitely going to happen is Biden is going to win the most votes & that means just 1 time between 1992 & 2024 that the GOP candidate won the most votes (Bush 2004)
Clinton 92
Clinton 96
Gore 2000
Bush 04
Obama 08
Obama 12
Clinton 16
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Next week at the RNC you’re going to hear how horrible america has become and the person that got us there is the only one who can fix it and the irony will fly right over their head.
Sounds like the Cardinals are in talks with the City about using Busch Stadium as a polling place this year. Lots of capacity and plenty of space for social distancing.
^ Yep. Hopefully the Cards offering Busch will lead the Blues to offer Enterprise.
https://www.stltoday.com/sports/basebal ... ing%20News
https://www.stltoday.com/sports/basebal ... ing%20News
That's great. Both are on direct MetroLink rides. Talk about public good.
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Now that conventions are cover we will get an onslaught of polls next week and see where the race stands
If you recall in 2016, the USC/LA Times poll is a panel poll that tracks the same 2500 likely voters and it constantly showed a very close race between Trump and Clinton & now it’s back and most of the 2016 voters are back on the panel (which makes it easy to see how Clinton and trump voters have shifted)
Including post gop convention Trump speech last night is their latest poll published this morning showing Biden +13
https://election.usc.edu/
If you recall in 2016, the USC/LA Times poll is a panel poll that tracks the same 2500 likely voters and it constantly showed a very close race between Trump and Clinton & now it’s back and most of the 2016 voters are back on the panel (which makes it easy to see how Clinton and trump voters have shifted)
Including post gop convention Trump speech last night is their latest poll published this morning showing Biden +13
https://election.usc.edu/
^Interesting. And that's an interesting polling methodology. But a lot of voters don't tune into the conventions themselves, but watch clips, pundits, analysis and articles in the days afterwards that inform their decision making. The RNC analysis will stay in high gear through the Sunday morning talk shows.
I think the polls will really come into focus after Labor Day. That will be less than 2 months out, folks will be back from vacation, and prospective voters and the media will have had time to digest and compare/contrast the two conventions/platforms. Any convention "bumps" - which seem less likely this year for a host of reasons - will have reverted to the mean.
I think the polls will really come into focus after Labor Day. That will be less than 2 months out, folks will be back from vacation, and prospective voters and the media will have had time to digest and compare/contrast the two conventions/platforms. Any convention "bumps" - which seem less likely this year for a host of reasons - will have reverted to the mean.
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the race has been incredibly stable for 3 months now...Biden 9-11pt lead nationally. at this point in 2016 about 19% of voters we undecided and today only about 7%, so there isnt much room for this thing to move. Issue for Trump is he hasnt expanded his base from his 2016 numbers and Biden has been picking off those millions of voters who went Johnson or Stein in 2016 + as in any 4 year cycle, bunch of old people died and bunch of people are now eligible to vote that werent in 2016. those two when factored in that unlike previous generations, people born after 1980 arent turning right after 30 or 35, they're staying left or maybe moving to the middle.wabash wrote: ↑Aug 28, 2020^Interesting. And that's an interesting polling methodology. But a lot of voters don't tune into the conventions themselves, but watch clips, pundits, analysis and articles in the days afterwards that inform their decision making. The RNC analysis will stay in high gear through the Sunday morning talk shows.
I think the polls will really come into focus after Labor Day. That will be less than 2 months out, folks will be back from vacation, and prospective voters and the media will have had time to digest and compare/contrast the two conventions/platforms. Any convention "bumps" - which seem less likely this year for a host of reasons - will have reverted to the mean.
Trump does have a shot and his WHOLE shot hinges on cultural war, he will need to tear the country down to win...is he willing to do that? absolutely, will it work? we'll see
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I'm really hoping this election spawns some sort of DEM stronghold like '54-'94 Democratic House majority. If they can take the Senate, there needs to be some blowback and attention paid to ridding the US of this Trump ideology.
Young ace Jack Flaherty had a big hand in that, apparently. He's become quite outspoken on BLM issues in recent months. A lot of people don't know this, but Jack is biracial (he's adopted). You wouldn't necessarily know that by looking at him, but he's got a very similar complexion as Derek Jeter.sc4mayor wrote: ↑Aug 27, 2020Sounds like the Cardinals are in talks with the City about using Busch Stadium as a polling place this year. Lots of capacity and plenty of space for social distancing.
What made the USC poll stand out so much is that in 2016 is that it was one of the few that frequently showed Trump with an edge in the race (and at the time many assumed it was an outlier). That it's polling so heavily in Biden's favor this time is encouraging.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Aug 28, 2020Now that conventions are cover we will get an onslaught of polls next week and see where the race stands
If you recall in 2016, the USC/LA Times poll is a panel poll that tracks the same 2500 likely voters and it constantly showed a very close race between Trump and Clinton & now it’s back and most of the 2016 voters are back on the panel (which makes it easy to see how Clinton and trump voters have shifted)
Including post gop convention Trump speech last night is their latest poll published this morning showing Biden +13
https://election.usc.edu/
I consider myself pretty progressive politically - I'm definitely to the left of Biden, but not as far to the left as Bernie. I intended to vote for Warren in the MO primary until she dropped out, even though it was clear pretty early on that she wasn't going to be the nominee.
All that said, I've got an opinion that is sort of unpopular among a lot of more progressive types - I appreciate the work that the Lincoln Project is doing. Yeah, I know who they are, and yes, I know some of their past work (ie Rick Wilson smearing heroic Vietnam War vet Max Cleland in 2002), but I really consider this election to be an existential question for the country, and I'll gladly take all the help we can get.
I genuinely believe that if Trump gets re-elected, the country is over as we know it, namely because he's going to get to fill at least one and possibly two or more SCOTUS seats, which will give the wingnuts a stranglehold on the highest court for the next 25+ years. If the conservatives have a 6-3 or 7-2 majority and Roberts is no longer the swing vote on the court, every single piece of progressive legislation that gets passed will be immediately challenged and struck down for years to come. Goodbye ACA, goodbye to the last vestiges of the Voting Rights Act, goodbye Roe v. Wade, goodbye to all meaningful environmental regulation and gun safety legislation. Hello permanent Republican majority thanks to the most ridiculous gerrymandering you've ever seen withstanding all judicial scrutiny (unless it somehow benefits Democrats). And I haven't even gotten to the complete decimation that will happen to the Circuit and District Courts (above and beyond the destruction that's already been inflicted in the past 4 years).
A second term of Trump doesn't just mean the next 4 years will suck, it very likely means the next 40 years will suck.
All that said, I've got an opinion that is sort of unpopular among a lot of more progressive types - I appreciate the work that the Lincoln Project is doing. Yeah, I know who they are, and yes, I know some of their past work (ie Rick Wilson smearing heroic Vietnam War vet Max Cleland in 2002), but I really consider this election to be an existential question for the country, and I'll gladly take all the help we can get.
I genuinely believe that if Trump gets re-elected, the country is over as we know it, namely because he's going to get to fill at least one and possibly two or more SCOTUS seats, which will give the wingnuts a stranglehold on the highest court for the next 25+ years. If the conservatives have a 6-3 or 7-2 majority and Roberts is no longer the swing vote on the court, every single piece of progressive legislation that gets passed will be immediately challenged and struck down for years to come. Goodbye ACA, goodbye to the last vestiges of the Voting Rights Act, goodbye Roe v. Wade, goodbye to all meaningful environmental regulation and gun safety legislation. Hello permanent Republican majority thanks to the most ridiculous gerrymandering you've ever seen withstanding all judicial scrutiny (unless it somehow benefits Democrats). And I haven't even gotten to the complete decimation that will happen to the Circuit and District Courts (above and beyond the destruction that's already been inflicted in the past 4 years).
A second term of Trump doesn't just mean the next 4 years will suck, it very likely means the next 40 years will suck.
So I have been in the camp of unless Biden really really screws this up that he has this thing in the bag.
BUT I do find it interesting the betting sites have brought it back to about even after Joe was way ahead a month ago.
August 1 Joe was up 24 points on average on them. Today it is down to 2.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... president/
On Bovada
Trump is EVEN and Joe is -120
Just by party Dem is -125 and Rep is -105
BUT I do find it interesting the betting sites have brought it back to about even after Joe was way ahead a month ago.
August 1 Joe was up 24 points on average on them. Today it is down to 2.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... president/
On Bovada
Trump is EVEN and Joe is -120
Just by party Dem is -125 and Rep is -105
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Betting markets are pricing in that there will be a wild swing towards Trump because of Kenosha and the Portland, which is overblown, this is happening in Trumps America and he is inciting it. Voters aren’t stupid, especially the middle of the road voters.
USC poll includes entire RNC and 2 days after it (Friday and Saturday) has Biden +14
https://election.usc.edu/
Many predicted Trump would destroy America and they were told its hyperbole. Well we are in the middle of that destruction right now.
USC poll includes entire RNC and 2 days after it (Friday and Saturday) has Biden +14
https://election.usc.edu/
Many predicted Trump would destroy America and they were told its hyperbole. Well we are in the middle of that destruction right now.
In regards to gerrymandering, can't the politicians just draw districts to be big rectangles? I mean seriously. That would seem like the simplest way to make it fair. Each rectangle gets the same population in each. Seems like it would work out.
Maybe in this case, Republicans and Democrats can have more competitive elections in some areas. Any problems why the rectangle districts won't work besides political pushback by those in power?
I also believe in term limits, so those would be nice too for all House of Representative seats (no more than 12 years - 6 terms) and Senate seats (no more than 12 years - 2 terms). We have too many Democrats and Republicans who have been in there for so long. Get them out and bring in new members that are more in tune with what's happening now. Most of the longtime members on both sides are nothing more than rambling shitheads that blame each other for problems this nation has when their respective parties have had total control at one point or another. So they had chances to fix it but didn't
Maybe in this case, Republicans and Democrats can have more competitive elections in some areas. Any problems why the rectangle districts won't work besides political pushback by those in power?
I also believe in term limits, so those would be nice too for all House of Representative seats (no more than 12 years - 6 terms) and Senate seats (no more than 12 years - 2 terms). We have too many Democrats and Republicans who have been in there for so long. Get them out and bring in new members that are more in tune with what's happening now. Most of the longtime members on both sides are nothing more than rambling shitheads that blame each other for problems this nation has when their respective parties have had total control at one point or another. So they had chances to fix it but didn't
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Each state has its on laws on what a district can and can’t look like and there are federal provisions from the civil rights act that have to be followed, despite all of that, Texas GOP was somehow allowed to draw a district like this;chriss752 wrote: ↑Aug 30, 2020In regards to gerrymandering, can't the politicians just draw districts to be big rectangles? I mean seriously. That would seem like the simplest way to make it fair. Each rectangle gets the same population in each. Seems like it would work out.
Maybe in this case, Republicans and Democrats can have more competitive elections in some areas. Any problems why the rectangle districts won't work besides political pushback by those in power?
I also believe in term limits, so those would be nice too for all House of Representative seats (no more than 12 years - 6 terms) and Senate seats (no more than 12 years - 2 terms). We have too many Democrats and Republicans who have been in there for so long. Get them out and bring in new members that are more in tune with what's happening now. Most of the longtime members on both sides are nothing more than rambling shitheads that blame each other for problems this nation has when their respective parties have had total control at one point or another. So they had chances to fix it but didn't
