urbanSTL

North St.Louis once an urbanist wet dream is now an urbanist death trap!!! That complete section of city is a cesspool and i can't ever imagining St.Louis City as a whole growing with that area being the way it is 150-200 murders a year is not going to attract families from any background to the city and what ever little gain the city happens to get will be marred in total exodus of the northern quadrant. I say allow it to naturally hallow out cause right now what developers are actually going to take on a risk so high that you'll never get a return on your investment? Not even the NGA will save what was once a true beacon for the city now a utter disaster!
I'll predict the city will see its first ever population gain this century 20-25 years from now maybe 30 that will put the population around 290,000 possibly lower depending how fast inclusion,gentrification,development makes its way to North St.Louis.
Right now i think the Mayors biggest focus is crime and safety and not population gains cause right now thats not going to happen with the current state of North St.Louis and parts of St.Louis.

St.Louis1764 wrote: ↑

May 25, 2017

North St.Louis once an urbanist wet dream is now an urbanist death trap!!! That complete section of city is a cesspool

I guess it's time to throw up my hands and move on. Some person on the internet just told me I wasted the last 10.5 years of my life working on revitalizing North City.

Or you could maybe visit occasionally and see that half the City isn't homogeneous and there are a lot of good things going on to go with admittedly a lot of bad. Everyone loves to bemoan the problems, but no one wants to help bring in the resources needed to turn things around. 70 years of decline doesn't turn around overnight, but with continued underresourcing things will for sure never get better.

In the meantime, I'm going to get back to processing through some paperwork for some renovation and new construction projects scattered around the northside.

Actually from what I can tell there is pockets where some redevelopment in the north side is occurring. One of the things I do in my job is environmental risk assessments for sites in association with bank loans. We have gotten a few northside ones lately, including recently in the area where the Rams stadium was proposed to go. So there are definitely some pockets, mainly on some near northside areas.

https://flic.kr/p/Gs2D14

Made my 2020 Census Estimate. Attack!
--Green is possible gain
--Red is possible loss
--Wish I had yellow sticky notes

dylank wrote: ↑

Nov 11, 2017

https://flic.kr/p/Gs2D14

Made my 2020 Census Estimate. Attack!
--Green is possible gain
--Red is possible loss
--Wish I had yellow sticky notes

I think you're close, but probably closer to 2030.

I've had this saved for awhile.
While 2020 will see some changes, large scale projects (N/S MetroLink, NGA, Chouteau Greenway, Trailnet Project, etc) are going to make the 2020's an exciting time for growth in St. Louis. Let me know if you agree.

Yours is much more realistic. But I would argue that Tower Grove South will see growth in 2020. I also think Hyde park could go slight gain.

Considering they have had steady, on-going infill projects for much of this decade and may not have the same lower density through gentrification effect being felt by some Southside neighborhoods, I think its realistic to expect modest gains for both Skinker-DeBalieviere and DeBaliviere Place in the 2020 census. Particularly DeBaliviere Place. A few dozen apartments @ Skinker & Delmar would help solidify Skink-D in the green.

I would say the Affton-Soco area is on the gain for 2020. Every small pocket of land is being developed with housing. Tower Tee (unfortunately), subdivision across from Affton HS and other smaller developments are adding people. I've observed families taking over homes emptied by empty-nesters and elderly folks. I think Affton offers people that want to live near the City, but don't want to pay Lindbergh school district's inflated prices, a great option. Again, just my observation.

^^ I agree. Which makes me think the outskirts of South City could swing either way. Boulevard , STL Hills, Princeton and Holly Hills seem rather stable, but I'm not sure about Carondelet/ Patch, Bevo Mill, and Dutchtown. Are Bevo residents still fleeing for Soco? Is Dutchtown neighborhood association helping attract business/ keep residents? I guess we will know in 2020.

IMO, the bread winner will be the Central West End and the Grove, followed by Downtown and rest of the Central Corridor.

Growth will bleed Near South from Soulard to Tower Grove/ Shaw and Near North from Old N to Hyde Park.

This made me remember a map I had made/posted in another thread which shows the change in registered voters between March of 2013 and November of 2016 (I think):



I think some of the effect is lower registration rates among African Americans, especially young people, vs. just after the 2012 election, but I also think it indicates that population losses are going to be pretty grievous on the North Side. Also note the increases in several south side wards.

I can do another comparison to the figures from the recent Prop P election.

Census would be a lot more useful if it was every five years

dylank wrote: ↑

Nov 11, 2017

Growth will bleed Near South from Soulard to Tower Grove/ Shaw and Near North from Old N to Hyde Park.

Has there been noticeable growth in Old North since, say, 2010?

San Luis Native wrote: ↑

Nov 13, 2017

dylank wrote: ↑

Nov 11, 2017

Growth will bleed Near South from Soulard to Tower Grove/ Shaw and Near North from Old N to Hyde Park.

Has there been noticeable growth in Old North since, say, 2010?

Habitat for Humanity built 17 homes in 2010 and 12 in 2011. They are all occupied. There have been several private renovations since then. Crown Square was only about 3/4 finished and occupied in time for the 2010 census, and three market-rate new construction homes just finished with two sold. By my count there are 12 buildings at various stages of renovation from just getting started to almost complete right now, and one new construction accessory dwelling unit with a permit just opened (mine). There is also some other new construction that is very much still in the planning stage. Just a few buildings went vacant in that time. I'm not expecting 28% growth again, but things are looking positive.

^Cool! That is good to hear. Thanks, Matt.

I agree. Single digit growth in ONSL seems likely considering the steady pace of smallish infill projects.

dylank wrote: ↑

Nov 11, 2017

^^ I agree. Which makes me think the outskirts of South City could swing either way. Boulevard , STL Hills, Princeton and Holly Hills seem rather stable, but I'm not sure about Carondelet/ Patch, Bevo Mill, and Dutchtown. Are Bevo residents still fleeing for Soco? Is Dutchtown neighborhood association helping attract business/ keep residents? I guess we will know in 2020.

IMO, the bread winner will be the Central West End and the Grove, followed by Downtown and rest of the Central Corridor.

Growth will bleed Near South from Soulard to Tower Grove/ Shaw and Near North from Old N to Hyde Park.

good stuff with your map. Not sure we'll see positive growth in the Tower Grove neighborhoods but I think we'll see at least less loss. Seems to me more of the rehabs are getting at formerly vacant properties and there's been a modest amount of infill and adaptive reuse of existing properties, especially in Shaw but also TGE & TGS. (Not sure about SW Gardens.)

And what I'm absolutely confident about is we won't see a loss of 3,000 people like we did last decade from the FPSE-McRee Town-Shaw corridor. Maybe even an overall gain. The Hill & Clayton-Tamm are among other n'hoods that have a decent amount of new units coming online that could reverse declines from last decade into positive growth. And again a large number of n'hoods that aren't really seeing much in the way of new units may lose people b/c of smaller household size but will still be stable.

STLrainbow wrote: ↑

Nov 16, 2017

Will STL County lose population again this decade? Census estimate is yes so far but I'll say small increase for 2020 Census

Will any of the following inner-ring suburbs that lost population last decade and which the census estimates a loss since 2010 actually gain population this decade?

Shrewsbury
Maplewood
Richmond Hts
University City

I say no. What say you?

You can add Webster Groves, all of those having been losing population since the 70s

^ I didn't include WG since it didn't border the city... but yeah it's among a large number of suburbs losing population. Even some places like Crestwood that had rebounded a bit from the 70-80s are even projected to be losing again.

Webster doing just fine....like $290/sq ft fine...

^ that's like much of South City... not necessarily growing population and maybe even losing but rising house prices and household incomes. The question is where and how can County grow with population in a generally more sustainable fashion.... there's still some pockets of traditional suburban growth opportunity east of 270 here and there but most population growth by far is in mixed-use Clayton. Otherwise, it's past 270 where there is any semblance of population growth and even that unsustainable pattern is starting to hit its limits. Some serious challenges ahead for the County as older, closer-in parts weaken and redevelopment prospects are more tenuous than in many parts of the City.

As boomers downsize or die off families will move in and populations will rise again.

^ for some sure, but smaller family size and ease of Saint Charles living poses problems for much of the County. I don't see solid growth anytime soon. City has some of the same issues, but it's less dependent upon family attraction and has almost unlimited potential for growth via redevelopment.. My bet for the next 10-20 years is the City increasingly will outperform (edit...maybe improved performance is the better way to phrase that) the County in terms of population patterns east of Lindbergh.

Much of the county is very anti-growth. Almost every time there is a proposal for denser housing it is shut down. St. Louis County is built out and the only way to grow at this point is adding density. If zoning and planning were done more at the county level (like say Washington DC area counties) we would probably see certain areas rezoned for redevelopment or denser mixed use housing. I mean Metrolink is really St. Louis County's saving grace when it comes to adding density in a tasteful way and it appears many of those opportunities are being squandered by lack of vision. Just build a majority of new apartments and mixed-use housing around transit stations. As far as boomers waiting for millennials to by their homes, St. Louis boomers have created such a hostile environment for young people, they better hope they can sell their homes.

^ I agree... a lot of young adults with families will just choose St. Charles over even some of the better school districts in the County. It's happening now. Again not to say that the County will become a dump but it has a lot of population growth challenges and will continue to struggle unless it embarks upon a sea change in thinking about development and follows a coherent plan for achieving greater housing density.