urbanSTL

At this time the protesters don't care they are going all over the St.Louis area to protest however its a bit interesting that they haven't gone over to St.Charles or into the Metro East.
Downtown has had a long perception that its been unsafe. I think a lot more street lighting could go a long ways.
Im curious once the decision is made on the MB case whats the likelihood of there being some sorts of destructive riots?

^^ I am not sure, but I do think what happens could very well determine the region's growth trajectory and patterns for the next generation at least. It depends on what the parties and the public at large does both immediately and in the next couple of years. The status quo is likely impossible to hold, so it will be either progress and cooperation, or a reactionary backlash and a double down on all of the bad tendencies that lead to it. One big consequence I do see out of it will be how it could greatly effect transportation policy in the region.

The biggest hurdle downtown as right now is perception not the recent events their is a culture in our region that views downtown's and cities in general as dangerous places to live. I found this view all over the Midwest not sure how this started but I think national Lampoon's family vacation St. Louis scene struck a chord in the Midwest.

But on a side note I think what downtown really need a new residential tower to many people new mean better and St. Louis still has as untapped market for new residential buildings downtown I think. Also all the news In Clayton is from I think market demand that had not been address much to now.

^ is how much of the above possibly not indicitiave of demand and more a function of the worldview of the powers that be in the area and their decisions? Basically a function of their biases and with their power and wealth can dictate it where even if younger people have different views they have less power. Since I have noticed and Ferguson really showed this In my opinion a huge generation gap between generations on things of race, urban development, and worldview since the opinions I heard really was through the prism of generations and views on such issues. The powers that be are the older generation so they may tend to hold views of urban development of that generation. (also I can't ignore there is an ideological aspect between urban/suburban development)

We need residents. Then the jobs will follow. But the most important aspect is residents!!!

downtown2007 wrote:We need residents. Then the jobs will follow. But the most important aspect is residents!!!

I think the opposite is true.

debaliviere wrote:

downtown2007 wrote:We need residents. Then the jobs will follow. But the most important aspect is residents!!!

I think the opposite is true.

I think it's a circular relationship. A larger and/or better workforce does attract employers, but larger or better employers also attract workers. Both are true.

debaliviere wrote:

downtown2007 wrote:We need residents. Then the jobs will follow. But the most important aspect is residents!!!

I think the opposite is true.

What was the downtown residential population when we had a daytime work pop of over 120k twenty years ago? Residential is stronger now with less workers. In addition, I bet less than 15% of downtown residents work downtown. We live downtown because of the lifestyle and not be close to the activity, not necessarily our jobs.

In the past 20 years residential population on downtown Chicago boomed while employment was stagnant until this decade. Look at the reasons why companies such as Kraft, United, and Motorola have moved to downtown Chicago. To be near a highly educated pool of young employees.

Downtown STL will succeed by attracting a dense highly educated young professional workforce and having an entrepreneurial business climate.

debaliviere wrote:

downtown2007 wrote:We need residents. Then the jobs will follow. But the most important aspect is residents!!!

I think the opposite is true.

Agree also. I've never agreed with DT2007's assessment. Downtown STL has added about what 5000 residents the last 10 years and lost what like 10000+ jobs. As we added resident we continued to loose jobs, large amounts of jobs. And as the jobs went, downtowns revival slowed.(the days of the recession excuse is over as other cities are back on track) And now downtown is stagnet. Cannot attract retail, we get the occational food or bar to open. Places are complaining of slow lunch crowsds, etc. I just don't see how adding 1000 residents, who leave for 10 hours during the day will help. We need jobs more than anything now. And i beleive people have thrown out examples in places like cincy, minnisapolis, denver that showed a small residential population and then a boom after office towers were announced. We have argued about this before though. And im sure people have made up there mind what they think will make the biggest difference.

So real simple question. Would people rather have a new full 20 story office tower or a new full 20 story residential tower at this stage of downtown. Im guessing almost everyone would choose the office tower

Ok take St Charles for example. The residential population grew and then companies like Citi, MasterCard, American Railcar started showing up. It wasn't the other way around. Companies relocate where the people are.

I am not saying companies aren't important but if you look at what has occurred in other downtowns, the growing residential base was the leading indicator and has always laid the groundwork for stabilization and expansion in the corporate arena.

Big box or high end retail is always last.

downtown2007 wrote:Ok take St Charles for example. The residential population grew and then companies like Citi, MasterCard, American Railcar started showing up. It wasn't the other way around. Companies relocate where the people are.

I am not saying companies aren't important but if you look at what has occurred in other downtowns, the growing residential base was the leading indicator and has always laid the groundwork for stabilization and expansion in the corporate arena.

Big box or high end retail is always last.

Certainly not the case for Minneapolis. The jobs have pretty much always been there and they continue to increase. Job growth in the CBD and Core CBD was slow or stagnant from time to time but they have pretty much always been there. And, they have been in a focused part of the downtown, the Core CBD. Although, this appears to be changing with the new Vikings stadium area...Downtown East. At the same time residential growth has been huge. It is largely in the outer areas of the CBD or directly adjacent to the CBD, very little of it is in the Core CBD.

At this time, downtown Saint Louis most desperately needs more jobs, not residents. And, most importantly, it needs those jobs to be in the core of the downtown, not on the outer edges.

Isn't the jobs issue in part a function of the people who make the decisions are those of older generations and their mindset? Also, the more senior people at a workplace would be less likely to live near downtown so that could be a factor. I wonder if a huge factor is the schools issue, mainly that sure they could attract young talent by being there, but the young talent gets older and if they have a family with children, the people making decisions on job location might think (rightly or wrongly) said people then move out after having children in large part due to schools. So the metric is that attracting young talent is one thing, the 2nd part is keeping it as said people get experienced. I wonder if the CWE/Clayton area is favored by a number of businesses in part due to this balance.

During my 6 years DT I commuted to O'Fallon, Mo and a lot of our neighbors had similar commutes. Many worked at Scott AFB or were on contract up in the Wood River area. I wish my office would have been downtown, but it wasn't. I lived DT for the lifestyle and wasn't willing to give that up for a shorter commute (outer suburbs scare me).

In regards to the current conversation. I believe jobs will follow the residents, just as they followed the migration of city residents west. Not necessarily DT residential growth, but growth in the city proper.

So most of us, including me have thrown out the 350 or so per year number increase in residents. It got me thinking. We are basing this off of new units available correct? However, on my floor alone, there are two units that have sat empty the last year, waiting for a sale/rental. And with the news that there is a possible slow down in rental. Its possible the new units are just sucking away demand from current owners and we are barely seeing any gain in residents. Is there any reliable way to really see how many residents are added. Census figure? Downtown now stats?

bigmclargehuge wrote:So most of us, including me have thrown out the 350 or so per year number increase in residents. It got me thinking. We are basing this off of new units available correct? However, on my floor alone, there are two units that have sat empty the last year, waiting for a sale/rental. And with the news that there is a possible slow down in rental. Its possible the new units are just sucking away demand from current owners and we are barely seeing any gain in residents. Is there any reliable way to really see how many residents are added. Census figure? Downtown now stats?

Is "Downtown Now" the same as the Downtown Partnership? If so, the partnership is who is touting the 350 or so new residents per year.

Downtown STL (which was called Partnership for Downtown St. Louis until about a week ago) in their 2014 State of Downtown report states that "During the past five years, population in the downtown core neighborhoods grew by 28%. An average of 350 residents each year."

The report is HERE.

Jobs Jobs Jobs. Get jobs downtown its essential for the growth of all of St.Louis. If City leaders could just do something or anything to get a company to invest in downtown that would go a long ways. Residents are equally as important however Jobs by far are the main ingredient into getting further growth and things rolling. More Jobs more residents means more shops and restaurants which leads to stability furthermore new construction of both office and residential also leads to a complete different reversal in perception of downtown being uninviting and dangerous.
We already have a grocery store however if we don't have the office employees like there used to be to support it how will it survive without any growth? That's probably the likelihood why theres no Walgreens or CVS or other shops downtown.

roger wyoming II wrote:^ 5/3 wil be taking up 60,000 square feet of office space in downtown Detroit (with no govt. incentives) and that is just a fraction of the more than 1 million square feet occupied since 2012. Thousands of new employees have descended to downtown in recent years and residents and retail are following.

So who is going to get the ball rolling here?

This is all has to do with property values. Potential buyers, or long-term leasers in this case, make a calculation about future property values. In Detroit's case, it's clear to all that values can't go any lower without Detroit actually collapsing through the earth's crust into its molten core. The only way is up. That isn't so clear for St. Louis. It never fell nearly as far and thus potential investors must consider the possibility that it might. St. Louis still has something to lose, Detroit doesn't. It needs to be clear to investors that downtown property prices have bottomed out. This is about psychology as much as anything else. In many cities its an aggressive development authority that provides that reassurance to private investors. I'd say that is what downtown needs. McKee's northside thingy has the right idea, if only it was a more formal organization with a professional administration and outside investors willing to share the risk for the greater reward. His one man show, is a sign that no one else cares about what he has, but that isn't true for downtown and it can connect the dots with enough support. I'd say this offers an opportunity for the mayor to distract from the protests in a way that many will perceive as unifying.

The city has been trying to land the big fish for decades without success. The far majority of CEO’s in STL are boomers that have not caught onto the downtown living concept yet. They live in West Co and their companies are within a 5-10 mile radius of their home. In addition, the majority of their employees are located in West Co and St Charles Co. If a company were to move downtown the CEO would first need to have the desire to lengthen his commute, have a civic commitment to downtown, or move his residence downtown. The second step would be trying to convince his employees of this same concept which is extremely difficult. I have worked at a company that was looking for other sites and the suburban folks always won because they were in the majority of wanting an office location in the burbs.

If downtown had more residents, then the voice of wanting an office location would be louder and companies would be inclined to make the move. In addition if downtown would be able to attract a few CEO’s to live downtown it would shift the paradigm.

This is why I say downtown needs to invest in startups since they like the centralized (downtown) office location and highly educated young professionals. Building on this population will lead to the next cycle of the downtown movement which is Corporate relocations.