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PostOct 27, 2014#601

I opened a thread about Wash Ave streetscape... but I think this plays exactly to the topic on hand. As soon as they repave Washington Ave, it look and feel SO MUCH BETTER. Go on tucker, stand in the middle and look westward: the road is cracking apart.

Our company just resealed the parking lot and repainted. It looks great! Need that to come to Wash Ave ASAP.

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PostOct 27, 2014#602

^^ I agree, the issue is Ferguson basically highlights all the issues relating to the region and many are sitting on the fence to see what happens. Since how everyone reacts could completely shape the development of the region both internally and the ability to attract outsiders for possibly the next 50 years.

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PostOct 27, 2014#603

I think what is happening downtown is as of right now is downtown filled the demanded for market rate housing. That is probably why the chem building is having a tough time getting financed. Crime downtown is down this year about 5% so I am not sure if crime is holding people back.

The city needs a plan for downtown also new sidewalks and street lights would help and get ride of the two way streets. Also jobs are needed badly. Reason Clayton is getting momentum is there are not a residential choices there to began with so that could be demand that built up over they years and is not getting released. Downtown need to market it self to young people and older artist types.
While I think Clayton is going to see an older and less outgoing crowed with more wealth.

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PostOct 27, 2014#604

^ fyi, here is a link to the various residential projects that have been completed recently or in various stages of development:

http://urbanstl.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 40#p240327

I agree that we may be in a period characterized by absorption of existing market rate units and it may be some time before new projects start to take off again en masse.... hopefully we can get the 720 Olive and Chemical buildings moving forward as that will create strong residential density in that key, high potential area and I wouldn't be surprised at all by a BPV tower. If those 3 moved forward in the next 12-24 months along with some subsidized projects like 1810 Pine I think that would still be okay and get the annual growth of 350 or so new downtown residents the Partnership has been tracking in recent years.... not great but still building residential density.

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PostOct 27, 2014#605

http://www.planetizen.com/node/68960

I wonder is this effecting St. Louis also right before the summer things seemed to be slowing down in St. Louis so I don't think it was just Ferguson. Also I am seeing this slowdown in other cities too.

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PostOct 27, 2014#606

^ I think you are right true dope. I think there is a general real estate slow down in America right now. Unfortunately, we are still in a recession malaise. People don't want to admit it, but many of the jobs we have added have not been "quality jobs" and they are often low paying. I know plenty of young, college educated people that would love to move downtown, but they don't have "downtown money". It also seems like many of the developers jumping on the "urban" bandwagon are ignoring the fact that there is a limited supply of young, hip, high earning professionals, especially in a city like St. Louis. If we focused more on building apartments in the $600-$800 range, we could attract a lot more young people to the urban core. It seems like too much of the focus in new urban housing is either low income or luxury, we are missing a large swath of people that just find it more convenient and affordable to live in the suburbs. Cant count how many times I've heard people say, "I would love to live on Washington Avenue, but its a little out of my price range" and these are not what you would call trashy or low class people.

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PostOct 27, 2014#607

goat314 wrote:^ I think you are right true dope. I think there is a general real estate slow down in America right now. Unfortunately, we are still in a recession malaise. People don't want to admit it, but many of the jobs we have added have not been "quality jobs" and they are often low paying. I know plenty of young, college educated people that would love to move downtown, but they don't have "downtown money". It also seems like many of the developers jumping on the "urban" bandwagon are ignoring the fact that there is a limited supply of young, hip, high earning professionals, especially in a city like St. Louis. If we focused more on building apartments in the $600-$800 range, we could attract a lot more young people to the urban core. It seems like too much of the focus in new urban housing is either low income or luxury, we are missing a large swath of people that just find it more convenient and affordable to live in the suburbs. Cant count how many times I've heard people say, "I would love to live on Washington Avenue, but its a little out of my price range" and these are not what you would call trashy or low class people.
Is there a way I can find out if my apartment is a market rate or subsidized at all? I'm nearly certain I have a market rate apartment but I never actually checked. If it is market rate everything you are saying is wrong in my view. If I am being subsidized then you might be right. I want to know before I show you examples of great places you can get for that exact dollar range you are looking for.

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PostOct 27, 2014#608

Goat: you are right, many don't have the "downtown money". I have personally encountered multiple people here at work that moved to STL and wanted to live downtown. I tried helping them out but the deal always fell through since their ideal rent was 600-700. You can't find a market rate apt west of Jefferson for less than 850. In addition, the large percentage of units are 1 bedrooms which eliminates the option of adding a roommate.

Living downtown is tough for people just out of college in the 22-28 age range. Consider student loan debt and it makes it even more unattainable.

I moved downtown when I was 29. I could not afford the rent in my early to mid 20's. I am sure most others can't either.

We need more quality choices in the 500-800 range.

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PostOct 27, 2014#609

mjbais1489 wrote:
goat314 wrote:^ I think you are right true dope. I think there is a general real estate slow down in America right now. Unfortunately, we are still in a recession malaise. People don't want to admit it, but many of the jobs we have added have not been "quality jobs" and they are often low paying. I know plenty of young, college educated people that would love to move downtown, but they don't have "downtown money". It also seems like many of the developers jumping on the "urban" bandwagon are ignoring the fact that there is a limited supply of young, hip, high earning professionals, especially in a city like St. Louis. If we focused more on building apartments in the $600-$800 range, we could attract a lot more young people to the urban core. It seems like too much of the focus in new urban housing is either low income or luxury, we are missing a large swath of people that just find it more convenient and affordable to live in the suburbs. Cant count how many times I've heard people say, "I would love to live on Washington Avenue, but its a little out of my price range" and these are not what you would call trashy or low class people.
Is there a way I can find out if my apartment is a market rate or subsidized at all? I'm nearly certain I have a market rate apartment but I never actually checked. If it is market rate everything you are saying is wrong in my view. If I am being subsidized then you might be right. I want to know before I show you examples of great places you can get for that exact dollar range you are looking for.
You may live in a market-rate apartment, but you may be one of the lucky few that was able to get a place in that price range. I also know that many places downtown had waiting lists to rent and it may be for units in the price range. My main point was if Downtown housing is mostly non-existent or super hard to secure in the mid-market range of $500-$750/month, it will lose every time to the suburbs. I know MANY MANY MANY young people that would love to be Downtown, but only can afford around $650 for a one bedroom. People are going to chose the burbs every time in a place like St. Louis, where $650 can get you a pretty nice apartment, pretty much anywhere in the county. My point is many developers look at urban living as a niche in St. Louis and not a way of life that many people would choose if they could afford it.

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PostOct 27, 2014#610

^ well now may be a good time to look if managers need to offer specials, etc.... something like Locust Street Lofts might be a good target as it has low occupancy and a new owner and things like CityView may come in at that price range. Of course, depending on income, many young grands could qualify for subsidized units although I imagine most have waiting lists.

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PostOct 27, 2014#611

goat314 wrote:
mjbais1489 wrote:
goat314 wrote:^ I think you are right true dope. I think there is a general real estate slow down in America right now. Unfortunately, we are still in a recession malaise. People don't want to admit it, but many of the jobs we have added have not been "quality jobs" and they are often low paying. I know plenty of young, college educated people that would love to move downtown, but they don't have "downtown money". It also seems like many of the developers jumping on the "urban" bandwagon are ignoring the fact that there is a limited supply of young, hip, high earning professionals, especially in a city like St. Louis. If we focused more on building apartments in the $600-$800 range, we could attract a lot more young people to the urban core. It seems like too much of the focus in new urban housing is either low income or luxury, we are missing a large swath of people that just find it more convenient and affordable to live in the suburbs. Cant count how many times I've heard people say, "I would love to live on Washington Avenue, but its a little out of my price range" and these are not what you would call trashy or low class people.
Is there a way I can find out if my apartment is a market rate or subsidized at all? I'm nearly certain I have a market rate apartment but I never actually checked. If it is market rate everything you are saying is wrong in my view. If I am being subsidized then you might be right. I want to know before I show you examples of great places you can get for that exact dollar range you are looking for.
You may live in a market-rate apartment, but you may be one of the lucky few that was able to get a place in that price range. I also know that many places downtown had waiting lists to rent and it may be for units in the price range. My main point was if Downtown housing is mostly non-existent or super hard to secure in the mid-market range of $500-$750/month, it will lose every time to the suburbs. I know MANY MANY MANY young people that would love to be Downtown, but only can afford around $650 for a one bedroom. People are going to chose the burbs every time in a place like St. Louis, where $650 can get you a pretty nice apartment, pretty much anywhere in the county. My point is many developers look at urban living as a niche in St. Louis and not a way of life that many people would choose if they could afford it.
These are growing pains. Almost 800 units recently have been completed or are under construction and over 350 more planned not including intriguing other possibilities such as BPV or Laclede's Landing towers:

Recently Completed

Gallery 515 apartments - 515 Olive (102 units; Millennium Center 11 floor apartment conversion)
Lacassian Lofts -- renovation of 2200 Locust (27 units + ground floor commercial)
CitiParc at Pine - 1531 Pine (149 senior housing units; was vacant Plaza Square Building)
Tower OPOP - 411 N. 8th (128 units + ground floor restaurant)
406 units recently completed

Expected Completions 2014
Plaza Square improvements, including new garage (intended to create high occupancy rates)

2014 Expected Construction Starts with post-2014 completion

Under Construction
Arcade-Wright - 800 Olive (282 units + Webster U Gateway Campus))
Marquette Building - 304 N. Broadway (10 condos converted from old Y space)
1214 Washington mixed-use (5 units + first floor commercial)
378 units under construction

Planned
720 Olive - 111 units (partial residential conversion of office building; offices consolidated to lower floors)
The Alverne Building (1014 Locust) (81 units)
1900 Pine (87 units)
Chemical Building - 721 Olive (approx. 120 units)
2035 Lucas "Intrada Lofts" (57 units)

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PostOct 27, 2014#612

You can find a small studio in a 1960s building in the $600 range, but market rate for a newly renovated one bedroom is probably around $1000/mo.

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PostOct 28, 2014#613

^^, I corrected below as I see I did not adjust the counts when I moved the Alverne from Under Construction to Planned. Also, I've put the market rate ones in bold.... the others are some form of subsidized projects.

Recently Completed

Gallery 515 apartments - 515 Olive (102 units; Millennium Center 11 floor apartment conversion)
Lacassian Lofts -- renovation of 2200 Locust (27 units + ground floor commercial)
CitiParc at Pine - 1531 Pine (149 senior housing units; was vacant Plaza Square Building)
Tower OPOP - 411 N. 8th (128 units + ground floor restaurant)
406 units recently completed: 257 market-rate, 149 subsidized

Expected Completions 2014
Plaza Square improvements, including new garage (intended to create high occupancy rates)

2014 Expected Construction Starts with post-2014 completion

Under Construction
Arcade-Wright - 800 Olive (282 units (200 subsidized) + Webster U Gateway Campus))
Marquette Building - 304 N. Broadway (10 condos converted from old Y space)
1214 Washington mixed-use (5 units + first floor commercial)
297 units under construction: 97 market-rate; 200 subsidized

Planned
720 Olive - 111 units (partial residential conversion of office building; offices consolidated to lower floors)
The Alverne Building (1014 Locust) (81 units)
1900 Pine (87 units)
Chemical Building - 721 Olive (approx. 120 units)
2035 Lucas "Intrada Lofts" (57 units)

456 units, 369 market-rate; 87 subsidized

Total Recently Completed, Under Construction and Planned:
1,159 unit: 723 market-rate, 436 subsidized







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PostOct 28, 2014#614

Matthew - I disagree with you respectfully. I think you're grossly underestimating the impact of the Ferguson incident and other crime in the City on the residential market Downtown.

Also, blaming the broker is easy, short sighted and weak. This guy leased my loft multiple times in a very short amount of time during the recession at rents at market and once above asking rate. You may see it as excuses. I see it as market information. Plus, this was only part of his reasoning for lack of interest.

Anyways, I think you're correct the recent supply into the market may slow things down but I think that's secondary in comparison to crime/race issues going on in St Louis right now.

The other issue is certainly that Wash Ave has lost its shine as I outlined earlier in this thread.

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PostOct 28, 2014#615

kbshapiro wrote:Matthew - I disagree with you respectfully. I think you're grossly underestimating the impact of the Ferguson incident and other crime in the City on the residential market Downtown.

Also, blaming the broker is easy, short sighted and weak. This guy leased my loft multiple times in a very short amount of time during the recession at rents at market and once above asking rate. You may see it as excuses. I see it as market information. Plus, this was only part of his reasoning for lack of interest.

Anyways, I think you're correct the recent supply into the market may slow things down but I think that's secondary in comparison to crime/race issues going on in St Louis right now.

The other issue is certainly that Wash Ave has lost its shine as I outlined earlier in this thread.
Ferguson is not the issue, "other crime" is. Ferguson has made it clear how poor black people are moving away from central St. Louis northward. The more Ferguson, and the rest of north county, falls the more St. Louis city rises as there is a new place to dump the problems of poor blacks away from downtown. Shaw the made the inverse point that central St. Louis is gaining significant numbers of middle-class whites while it loses blacks. This is a buying opportunity. 'Buy on the dip' as they say on Wall Street. This is a dip, nothing more.

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PostOct 28, 2014#616

Downtown residential growth was slow and steady since the recession. I remember that downtown usually a few strange and high profile crimes per year, anyone remember the homeless person killed over chips our that high speed chase/gun-battle back in 2012 that ended when the perp's car crashed into a storefront in broad daylight?? I remember Circa 2009-ish there was almost multiple shootings from some of the Clubs every weekend on Wash Ave. (just read the first pages of the crime thread)
I could still say this was a good year for downtown the OPO tower is open, The arcade building is underway, The millennium center has residential units occupied now. I could say for the slow economy painful winter we're doing well. For some reason people on the forum people think if Ferguson never happen every lot downtown would have a 20+ floor development happening right now. If people and home values are staying put in Ground Zero (Ferguson) why would a place 10+ miles away suffer? A lot of places like NYC, Chicago, and recently Detroit have similar race problems still mange to attract young. progressive people.

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PostOct 28, 2014#617

MatthewHall wrote:
kbshapiro wrote:Matthew - I disagree with you respectfully. I think you're grossly underestimating the impact of the Ferguson incident and other crime in the City on the residential market Downtown.

Also, blaming the broker is easy, short sighted and weak. This guy leased my loft multiple times in a very short amount of time during the recession at rents at market and once above asking rate. You may see it as excuses. I see it as market information. Plus, this was only part of his reasoning for lack of interest.

Anyways, I think you're correct the recent supply into the market may slow things down but I think that's secondary in comparison to crime/race issues going on in St Louis right now.

The other issue is certainly that Wash Ave has lost its shine as I outlined earlier in this thread.
Ferguson is not the issue, "other crime" is. Ferguson has made it clear how poor black people are moving away from central St. Louis northward. The more Ferguson, and the rest of north county, falls the more St. Louis city rises as there is a new place to dump the problems of poor blacks away from downtown. Shaw made the inverse point that central St. Louis is gaining significant numbers of middle-class whites while it loses blacks. This is a buying opportunity. 'Buy on the dip' as they say on Wall Street. This is a dip, nothing more.

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PostOct 28, 2014#618

i,Iive,to,draw wrote:For some reason people on the forum people think if Ferguson never happen every lot downtown would have a 20+ floor development happening right now.
I don't think anyone on this forum thinks that.

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PostOct 28, 2014#619

roger wyoming II wrote:^^, I corrected below as I see I did not adjust the counts when I moved the Alverne from Under Construction to Planned. Also, I've put the market rate ones in bold.... the others are some form of subsidized projects.

Recently Completed

Gallery 515 apartments - 515 Olive (102 units; Millennium Center 11 floor apartment conversion)
Lacassian Lofts -- renovation of 2200 Locust (27 units + ground floor commercial)
CitiParc at Pine - 1531 Pine (149 senior housing units; was vacant Plaza Square Building)
Tower OPOP - 411 N. 8th (128 units + ground floor restaurant)
406 units recently completed: 257 market-rate, 149 subsidized

Expected Completions 2014
Plaza Square improvements, including new garage (intended to create high occupancy rates)

2014 Expected Construction Starts with post-2014 completion

Under Construction
Arcade-Wright - 800 Olive (282 units (200 subsidized) + Webster U Gateway Campus))
Marquette Building - 304 N. Broadway (10 condos converted from old Y space)
1214 Washington mixed-use (5 units + first floor commercial)
297 units under construction: 97 market-rate; 200 subsidized

Planned
720 Olive - 111 units (partial residential conversion of office building; offices consolidated to lower floors)
The Alverne Building (1014 Locust) (81 units)
1900 Pine (87 units)
Chemical Building - 721 Olive (approx. 120 units)
2035 Lucas "Intrada Lofts" (57 units)

456 units, 369 market-rate; 87 subsidized

Total Recently Completed, Under Construction and Planned:
1,159 unit: 723 market-rate, 436 subsidized






There has been significant, ongoing work on that last vacant Plaza Square building (the northeast-most one) for a few months now. I haven't seen anything on that, but I gotta think it'll be occupied soon, as well.

South of Pine, once Mills gets through rehabbing those buildings, there will definitely be an improvement in quality of residents there.

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PostOct 28, 2014#620

The happenings in Ferguson have slowed progress considerably throughout the region. I don't think anyone is counting on 20+ floor high-rises happening within the next yea or so maybe I'm wrong but not like there was a building boom going on in Downtown. Things are just very stagnant hopefully arcade will inject some much needed life into the Central business district also new companies from small to large could help downtown out a lot.

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PostOct 28, 2014#621

Matt Hall, people in STL are polarized and frightened by race and crime. It's an issue that far too many are sensitive to. Yes Ferguson is the #1 reason for the slowdown since downtown is one of 5 or 6 possible settings for unrest.

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PostOct 28, 2014#622

eee123 wrote: There has been significant, ongoing work on that last vacant Plaza Square building (the northeast-most one) for a few months now. I haven't seen anything on that, but I gotta think it'll be occupied soon, as well.

South of Pine, once Mills gets through rehabbing those buildings, there will definitely be an improvement in quality of residents there.
^ thanks... I had work on the Plaza Square under "Expected Completions" but I wasn't sure of the number of units involved.... Also, my understanding was that the work was only going to rehab units in occupied buildings and that the company that did the senior housing may buy the vacant one... so that's not right? I see the occupancy permit for the garage was issued earlier this month.

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PostOct 28, 2014#623

I agree. Its not something I want to hear either. In fact, Downtown was looking more attractive compared to the county until the recent incidents downtown. In a couple of years I'll be empty nesting and looking to downsize to a condo or apartment. I will try to get my wife to at least consider downtown, but the perceptions I listed may win out over the advantages. But perceptions change and fade with time, so I'm hoping something dramatic happens to reduce gun crime everywhere in the next few years. We need a technological (and corresponding social?) game changing breakthrough to neutralize indiscriminate gunfire. Nobody wants to be the person who just happened to be at the wrong place at the wrong time.

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PostOct 28, 2014#624

I think perceptions is the biggest hurdle, and things this year might make it that much harder. Worst case scenario is everything in the urban core grinds to a halt due to social perceptions and issues and white flight returns from both the city and county. Development will double down on sprawl and the idea of isolating poor people (especially non-white poor) from areas of growth.

Also I still can't help but wonder about the Mayor of Chesterfield's offhand comments early in the year about wanting to break from St. Louis County? Since I could see a scenario that the social fabric hits worst possible outcome and the county splits in two.

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PostOct 28, 2014#625

But isn't Clayton still a more likely place for a riot being the county seat, and the county police/ McCullough office, and more protest there then in downtown?????? There still doing fine even booming to an extent so that is why i doubt the Ferguson theory.

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