Landing "big fish" is the wrong approach. Instead, use market forces to our advantage by creating formal investment plans and alternative sources of finance that show investors what they would be gaining by choosing to invest in Downtown. Communicating with the heads of big corporations may inflate the mayor's ego, but it isn't a good development strategy.downtown2007 wrote:The city has been trying to land the big fish for decades without success. The far majority of CEO’s in STL are boomers that have not caught onto the downtown living concept yet. They live in West Co and their companies are within a 5-10 mile radius of their home. In addition, the majority of their employees are located in West Co and St Charles Co. If a company were to move downtown the CEO would first need to have the desire to lengthen his commute, have a civic commitment to downtown, or move his residence downtown. The second step would be trying to convince his employees of this same concept which is extremely difficult. I have worked at a company that was looking for other sites and the suburban folks always won because they were in the majority of wanting an office location in the burbs.
If downtown had more residents, then the voice of wanting an office location would be louder and companies would be inclined to make the move. In addition if downtown would be able to attract a few CEO’s to live downtown it would shift the paradigm.
This is why I say downtown needs to invest in startups since they like the centralized (downtown) office location and highly educated young professionals. Building on this population will lead to the next cycle of the downtown movement which is Corporate relocations.
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MatthewHall wrote:This all has to do with property values. Potential buyers, or long-term leasers in this case, make a calculation about future property values. In Detroit's case, it's clear to all that values can't go any lower without Detroit actually collapsing through the earth's crust into its molten core. The only way is up. That isn't so clear for St. Louis. It never fell nearly as far and thus potential investors must consider the possibility that it might. St. Louis still has something to lose, Detroit doesn't. It needs to be clear to investors that downtown property prices have bottomed out. This is about psychology as much as anything else. In many cities its an aggressive development authority that provides that reassurance to private investors. I'd say that is what downtown needs. McKee's northside thingy has the right idea, if only it was a more formal organization with a professional administration and outside investors willing to share the risk for the greater reward. His one man show, is a sign that no one else cares about what he has, but that isn't true for downtown and it can connect the dots with enough support. I'd say this offers an opportunity for the mayor to distract from the protests in a way that many will perceive as unifying.roger wyoming II wrote:^ 5/3 wil be taking up 60,000 square feet of office space in downtown Detroit (with no govt. incentives) and that is just a fraction of the more than 1 million square feet occupied since 2012. Thousands of new employees have descended to downtown in recent years and residents and retail are following.
So who is going to get the ball rolling here?
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^ You made a good point about Detroit: There is truly nowhere to go but up in Detroit. The difference here, in my opinion, is that things aren't as bad, but then the urgency to fix what's wrong isn't as strong here either.
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This makes sense to go for the startup route due to the age of the CEO's and the employees. On the employee's wants, I am curious if the suburban folks tended to more often have children.downtown2007 wrote:The city has been trying to land the big fish for decades without success. The far majority of CEO’s in STL are boomers that have not caught onto the downtown living concept yet. They live in West Co and their companies are within a 5-10 mile radius of their home. In addition, the majority of their employees are located in West Co and St Charles Co. If a company were to move downtown the CEO would first need to have the desire to lengthen his commute, have a civic commitment to downtown, or move his residence downtown. The second step would be trying to convince his employees of this same concept which is extremely difficult. I have worked at a company that was looking for other sites and the suburban folks always won because they were in the majority of wanting an office location in the burbs.
If downtown had more residents, then the voice of wanting an office location would be louder and companies would be inclined to make the move. In addition if downtown would be able to attract a few CEO’s to live downtown it would shift the paradigm.
This is why I say downtown needs to invest in startups since they like the centralized (downtown) office location and highly educated young professionals. Building on this population will lead to the next cycle of the downtown movement which is Corporate relocations.
Isn't one factor is that the growth in the central corridor west of downtown is a factor why downtown isn't gaining momentum? Mainly that since there isn't enough overall regional growth both places can't grow without one negatively impacting the other? Basically what is needed is outside the area growth since otherwise downtown growth would likely be at the expense of other places in the region. Then that gets to the issue of accelerating regional growth and how to do that.
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I don't have the evidence to back up my gut feelings on this matter, but I completely agree with this observation.imperialmog wrote:Isn't one factor is that the growth in the central corridor west of downtown is a factor why downtown isn't gaining momentum? Mainly that since there isn't enough overall regional growth both places can't grow without one negatively impacting the other? Basically what is needed is outside the area growth since otherwise downtown growth would likely be at the expense of other places in the region. Then that gets to the issue of accelerating regional growth and how to do that.
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I think there is a lot to this wrt to Detroit and Dan Gilbert says his downtown investments are just as much as seeing a good buy as it stems from his general belief in the benefits of strong urban cores. But I think we're more akin to Cincy in the sense that downtown hadn't deteriorated as much as Detroit's... but in the Queen City they're seeing a much stronger commitment recently to downtown from the corporate community. (I believe the 3CDC organization has played a strong role in much of this redevelopment, which could be a model for us.) So I don't think we're facing a case where investors have to feel that property values unquestionably are at their lowest, just that it is a good place to take a risk. All we need is a few risk-taking leaders... hopefully these people can be local but it may take outsiders.MatthewHall wrote:This is all has to do with property values. Potential buyers, or long-term leasers in this case, make a calculation about future property values. In Detroit's case, it's clear to all that values can't go any lower without Detroit actually collapsing through the earth's crust into its molten core. The only way is up. That isn't so clear for St. Louis. It never fell nearly as far and thus potential investors must consider the possibility that it might. St. Louis still has something to lose, Detroit doesn't. It needs to be clear to investors that downtown property prices have bottomed out. This is about psychology as much as anything else. In many cities its an aggressive development authority that provides that reassurance to private investors. I'd say that is what downtown needs.roger wyoming II wrote:^ 5/3 wil be taking up 60,000 square feet of office space in downtown Detroit (with no govt. incentives) and that is just a fraction of the more than 1 million square feet occupied since 2012. Thousands of new employees have descended to downtown in recent years and residents and retail are following.
So who is going to get the ball rolling here?
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3cdc in Cincinnati is exactly the kind of thing I'm describing. It's a facilitator of private investment, not a substitute for it, even though it's technically non-profit and organizes some tax credits and low-interest loans from other non-profit or governmental sources along with the commercial bank and REIT loans that are now the majority of its funding sources. To be fair though, downtown Cincy has nothing remotely like Clayton to compete with. Even Cincinnati's midtown neighborhoods, though strong and growing, are not as cohesively urban and economically diverse as the Central West End. Downtown Cincy is the only truly urban center in its metro.roger wyoming II wrote:I think there is a lot to this wrt to Detroit and Dan Gilbert says his downtown investments are just as much as seeing a good buy as it stems from his general belief in the benefits of strong urban cores. But I think we're more akin to Cincy in the sense that downtown hadn't deteriorated as much as Detroit's... but in the Queen City they're seeing a much stronger commitment recently to downtown from the corporate community. (I believe the 3CDC organization has played a strong role in much of this redevelopment, which could be a model for us.) So I don't think we're facing a case where investors have to feel that property values unquestionably are at their lowest, just that it is a good place to take a risk. All we need is a few risk-taking leaders... hopefully these people can be local but it may take outsiders.MatthewHall wrote:This is all has to do with property values. Potential buyers, or long-term leasers in this case, make a calculation about future property values. In Detroit's case, it's clear to all that values can't go any lower without Detroit actually collapsing through the earth's crust into its molten core. The only way is up. That isn't so clear for St. Louis. It never fell nearly as far and thus potential investors must consider the possibility that it might. St. Louis still has something to lose, Detroit doesn't. It needs to be clear to investors that downtown property prices have bottomed out. This is about psychology as much as anything else. In many cities its an aggressive development authority that provides that reassurance to private investors. I'd say that is what downtown needs.roger wyoming II wrote:^ 5/3 wil be taking up 60,000 square feet of office space in downtown Detroit (with no govt. incentives) and that is just a fraction of the more than 1 million square feet occupied since 2012. Thousands of new employees have descended to downtown in recent years and residents and retail are following.
So who is going to get the ball rolling here?
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^ I think 3CDC is a direct developer of quite a few projects.
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threeonefour wrote:I don't have the evidence to back up my gut feelings on this matter, but I completely agree with this observation.imperialmog wrote:Isn't one factor is that the growth in the central corridor west of downtown is a factor why downtown isn't gaining momentum? Mainly that since there isn't enough overall regional growth both places can't grow without one negatively impacting the other? Basically what is needed is outside the area growth since otherwise downtown growth would likely be at the expense of other places in the region. Then that gets to the issue of accelerating regional growth and how to do that.
This also might be why it may not be a good idea to compare the downtown here to other metro areas, there may not be an equivalent force in those areas like the CWE/Clayton area so their growth is more focused on the downtown area. Actually what other metro areas do have an equivalent area and compare if that also slows down their downtown development. One I can picture is Atlanta due to its Midtown/Buckhead corridor and setup similar to St. Louis, but that isn't a good comparison due to rapid regional growth would allow it to lift more boats at once. But... their downtown didn't seem to develop as much either compared to north of it, but there is also in Downtown Atlanta the state capital and Georgia State which are job sources that have no local equivalent in downtown St. Louis.
I just picture downtown growth will be uphill until stronger regional growth occurs, since its competing with the CWE/Clayton area for similar things and both can't develop at this same point until then. Another way to help downtown would be if the metro east is stronger, since I picture the current situation there pushes development and center of gravity west.
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They are. They get a larger share of their financing from commercial lenders than from non-profit sources. They also do deals with other for-profit developers. They're very much part of the commercial real estate business and not a subsidized entity.roger wyoming II wrote:^ I think 3CDC is a direct developer of quite a few projects.
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We obviously need more growth but we could have done a lot better for ourselves if we had clear and decisive office growth centered in downtown and Clayton. If we had 1/2 of the office growth that has occurred well beyond 170 in the past twenty years and split that equally b/w Clayton and downtown the region would be doing a whole lot better. Scottrade moving downtown to an identifiable financial district, RGA building in Clayton, etc. are all recent things that are frustrating for not happening.threeonefour wrote:I don't have the evidence to back up my gut feelings on this matter, but I completely agree with this observation.imperialmog wrote:Isn't one factor is that the growth in the central corridor west of downtown is a factor why downtown isn't gaining momentum? Mainly that since there isn't enough overall regional growth both places can't grow without one negatively impacting the other? Basically what is needed is outside the area growth since otherwise downtown growth would likely be at the expense of other places in the region. Then that gets to the issue of accelerating regional growth and how to do that.
I think one day we'll have a pretty dynamic, almost seamlessly developed central corridor between downtown and Clayton but we've squandered years of progress towards that goal due to annoying corporate locations.
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Today in the Journal. How commercial landlords are betting that the growing residential population may lead to a growing business community. Downtown LA has a lot of vacant space.
In my experience there, downtown LA has a lot in common with downtown STL.
In Office Market, L.A. Is a Real Drag
Russell Cooper, who heads acquisitions for Shorenstein in the Western U.S., concedes that the city’s downtown office market has been weak. But his firm is betting that demand for downtown office space will increase in the future as the area becomes a more attractive place to live, which eventually will encourage employers to relocate there, too.
Mr. Cooper said downtown’s growing residential population, its burgeoning night-life scene and the city’s rapidly expanding subway and light-rail lines are creating more interest from employers such as architecture and engineering firms, including tenants currently on L.A.’s Westside.
http://m.wsj.com/articles/in-office-mar ... 7?mobile=y
In my experience there, downtown LA has a lot in common with downtown STL.
In Office Market, L.A. Is a Real Drag
Russell Cooper, who heads acquisitions for Shorenstein in the Western U.S., concedes that the city’s downtown office market has been weak. But his firm is betting that demand for downtown office space will increase in the future as the area becomes a more attractive place to live, which eventually will encourage employers to relocate there, too.
Mr. Cooper said downtown’s growing residential population, its burgeoning night-life scene and the city’s rapidly expanding subway and light-rail lines are creating more interest from employers such as architecture and engineering firms, including tenants currently on L.A.’s Westside.
http://m.wsj.com/articles/in-office-mar ... 7?mobile=y
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Downtown La is in many ways a larger version of downtown STL. Downtown La has a very week office market and has the same issues with homeless shelters and shootings. Also like stl downtown LA dose has to compete with places like Century City for jobs, Too. Both seen most of the residential growth with rehabs of historic buildings.downtown2007 wrote:Today in the Journal. How commercial landlords are betting that the growing residential population may lead to a growing business community. Downtown LA has a lot of vacant space.
In my experience there, downtown LA has a lot in common with downtown STL.
In Office Market, L.A. Is a Real Drag
Russell Cooper, who heads acquisitions for Shorenstein in the Western U.S., concedes that the city’s downtown office market has been weak. But his firm is betting that demand for downtown office space will increase in the future as the area becomes a more attractive place to live, which eventually will encourage employers to relocate there, too.
Mr. Cooper said downtown’s growing residential population, its burgeoning night-life scene and the city’s rapidly expanding subway and light-rail lines are creating more interest from employers such as architecture and engineering firms, including tenants currently on L.A.’s Westside.
http://m.wsj.com/articles/in-office-mar ... 7?mobile=y
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^ While there are some similarities, downtown LA is experiencing huge residential growth; in fact, I think the fact that it has grown so much while not bringing in the traditional office job shows how difficult it will be for us if we have to rely on a Residents First model. We need to hustle on both ends.
The "A" buildings downtown are around 11-12% vacant. The older "B" buildings are around 40% vacant. Many of the older, B, office buildings are being converted to residential such as 515 olive, laclede gas, etc.
the downtown partnership needs to run ads in the P-D, business journal touting all of the creative firms that are already downtown. The startup scene at T-Rex, and elsewhere.
A friend of mine loves living and working downtown. Let's make ad/testimonials about this that can be shared or advertised.
I've also heard that attorneys advise corporate firms against moving downtown because of the perception juries won't be as business friendly as they are in the county. I this is more perception or bias than reality. The only case where it might be true is the anti-Peabody nonsense. We need to get big employers downtown quoted that juries in the city are a non issue.
I also agree that it's mostly the older generation/ decision makers that are stuck in the pro-suburbia mindset. RGA's new buildings would have looked so cool at Olive and 20th..
the downtown partnership needs to run ads in the P-D, business journal touting all of the creative firms that are already downtown. The startup scene at T-Rex, and elsewhere.
A friend of mine loves living and working downtown. Let's make ad/testimonials about this that can be shared or advertised.
I've also heard that attorneys advise corporate firms against moving downtown because of the perception juries won't be as business friendly as they are in the county. I this is more perception or bias than reality. The only case where it might be true is the anti-Peabody nonsense. We need to get big employers downtown quoted that juries in the city are a non issue.
I also agree that it's mostly the older generation/ decision makers that are stuck in the pro-suburbia mindset. RGA's new buildings would have looked so cool at Olive and 20th..
I don't know what's happening with that vacant one, but I can't imagine anyone would be putting that much work into it without plans for occupancy. They've been working probably 7 days a week for months now.roger wyoming II wrote:^ thanks... I had work on the Plaza Square under "Expected Completions" but I wasn't sure of the number of units involved.... Also, my understanding was that the work was only going to rehab units in occupied buildings and that the company that did the senior housing may buy the vacant one... so that's not right? I see the occupancy permit for the garage was issued earlier this month.eee123 wrote: There has been significant, ongoing work on that last vacant Plaza Square building (the northeast-most one) for a few months now. I haven't seen anything on that, but I gotta think it'll be occupied soon, as well.
South of Pine, once Mills gets through rehabbing those buildings, there will definitely be an improvement in quality of residents there.
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Agreed. I know Express Scripts was much-needed good news for North County, but just imagine how it would look with an urban campus in or near downtown, or anywhere along the Central Corridor between it and downtown Clayton?roger wyoming II wrote:We obviously need more growth but we could have done a lot better for ourselves if we had clear and decisive office growth centered in downtown and Clayton. If we had 1/2 of the office growth that has occurred well beyond 170 in the past twenty years and split that equally b/w Clayton and downtown the region would be doing a whole lot better. Scottrade moving downtown to an identifiable financial district, RGA building in Clayton, etc. are all recent things that are frustrating for not happening.threeonefour wrote:I don't have the evidence to back up my gut feelings on this matter, but I completely agree with this observation.imperialmog wrote:Isn't one factor is that the growth in the central corridor west of downtown is a factor why downtown isn't gaining momentum? Mainly that since there isn't enough overall regional growth both places can't grow without one negatively impacting the other? Basically what is needed is outside the area growth since otherwise downtown growth would likely be at the expense of other places in the region. Then that gets to the issue of accelerating regional growth and how to do that.
I think one day we'll have a pretty dynamic, almost seamlessly developed central corridor between downtown and Clayton but we've squandered years of progress towards that goal due to annoying corporate locations.
Also imagine if Scottrade, Edward Jones, and Wells Fargo all had a presence around Stifel Nicolaus and the Federal Reserve Bank. I realize Wells Fargo is technically in Downtown West, but it is essentially a fortress unto itself.
It just seems like there is momentum in other cities that is leading not just residents, but also retail establishments, startups, AND established companies, to downtown. Detroit is beating us, for crying out loud. Mayor Slay used to be a better cheerleader for downtown and St. Louis as a whole, but he's never really been proactive, and now he's better at self-aggrandizing than anything else.
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Downtown could have been in far worse conditions if Lewis Rice Peabody and a few other companies would have uprooted and left for Clayton so in some sense Slay has kept some potential big companies from leaving downtown. I don't think he could have saved AT&T that was inevitable. while downtown is stagnant many neighborhoods have returned to some sorts of prominence or resurgence such as Cortex/CWE FPSE Midtown SLU Cherokee St Lafayette Square Peabody Darst Webb Old North St.Louis so it's not like the city isn't doing anything cause theres a lot of very active projects that are going on within the city itself. We may not be gaining jobs in downtown yet like other places however that can very well change at any given time. While Detroit has seen a significant increase in jobs downtown it still continues to lose population at an alarming rate which it's not even close to bottoming out like here in St.Louis where our population loss is about hallowed out. Theres a lot of exciting things going on here or on the verge and i firmly believe IKEA alone will transform many neighborhoods that surround it. I'll keep positive and not knock Slay cause he has accomplished a great deal that many mayors have failed to do here. Just look at Washington Ave alone on how much it has changed .Once the maarriot on Wash Ave opens that will be added foot traffic. Arcade will give CBD a big boost as well such as many others. I do hope that they'll be aggressive in getting Hotel Jefferson up and running back to its glory days. The 2 corners alone on Tucker and St.Charles St Tucker and Wash Ave could change dramatically. I think we are all are wanting big and splashy while we're already getting that but on a smaller scale for now. Our riverfront is drastically going to change the image of downtown so thats a big plus. Would l love to see a big splashy office or apartment tower go up yes but i rather see major happen such as the riverfront getting a much needed facelift than a tower going up at this point. It'll gel together we all need to be patient.
I think downtown is In a hibernation period right now. What downtown need to wake it up is a relocation of workers to downtown.
I even think of someone moved just 500 people downtown it would be enough to get the ball rolling. If feel downtown is on the Virge of great things but needs something to light the fire. webster/arcade project maybe it.
Downtown right now reminds me of downtown Detroit before Dan Gilbert got involved except our downtown is a little better off.
I even think of someone moved just 500 people downtown it would be enough to get the ball rolling. If feel downtown is on the Virge of great things but needs something to light the fire. webster/arcade project maybe it.
Downtown right now reminds me of downtown Detroit before Dan Gilbert got involved except our downtown is a little better off.
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I'd argue that downtown is BUSIER in the late evenings and weekends than it was 15 years ago. An analysis of the total amount of tax income produced by downtown would be interesting. Downtown's earning power might not have declined as much as we think.True_dope wrote:I think downtown is In a hibernation period right now. What downtown need to wake it up is a relocation of workers to downtown.
I even think of someone moved just 500 people downtown it would be enough to get the ball rolling. If feel downtown is on the Virge of great things but needs something to light the fire. webster/arcade project maybe it.
Downtown right now reminds me of downtown Detroit before Dan Gilbert got involved except our downtown is a little better off.
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I think you may have a point about the level of activity, at least in some areas of downtown like Washington Avenue, which is without a doubt busier than it was 15 or 20 years ago. I, too, would like to see an analysis of revenue produced in downtown.MatthewHall wrote:I'd argue that downtown is BUSIER in the late evenings and weekends than it was 15 years ago. An analysis of the total amount of tax income produced by downtown would be interesting. Downtown's earning power might not have declined as much as we think.
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I wasn't here 15 years ago, but I assume more of the entertainment was oriented in Laclede's Landing?
Compared to 10 years ago the core CBD to me appears to be more well-rounded with busier evening and weekend activity and despite the mothballing of some key buildings like Railway Exchange, Jefferson Arms and Chemical has fewer empty buildings, but its much less busy during daytime. My guess is tax revenue is below 10-15 years ago but it would be interesting to see. I assume more tax abatements will be ending for some of the residential projects so that should help some.
Compared to 10 years ago the core CBD to me appears to be more well-rounded with busier evening and weekend activity and despite the mothballing of some key buildings like Railway Exchange, Jefferson Arms and Chemical has fewer empty buildings, but its much less busy during daytime. My guess is tax revenue is below 10-15 years ago but it would be interesting to see. I assume more tax abatements will be ending for some of the residential projects so that should help some.
Isn't WFA technically in Midtown? Anyway, I agree it would be great to have a discernable Financial District that could be clustered around Stifel that included the 600 Washington & 500 N. Broadway towers and maybe even an infill tower in the MAC parking lot.threeonefour wrote: Also imagine if Scottrade, Edward Jones, and Wells Fargo all had a presence around Stifel Nicolaus and the Federal Reserve Bank. I realize Wells Fargo is technically in Downtown West, but it is essentially a fortress unto itself.
It just seems like there is momentum in other cities that is leading not just residents, but also retail establishments, startups, AND established companies, to downtown. Detroit is beating us, for crying out loud.
As for other cities, I see downtown Cleveland is still humming along and seems to be accelerating its pace... their 20143Q Market Update reports that downtown population is now over 13,000 and is projected to grow over a 1,000 people per year in the coming years.... 18,000 by 2017 and 23,000 by end of 2020. http://www.downtowncleveland.com/
Like Saint Louis, office isn't great in Cleveland but its showing much stronger residential gains; I'm just not sure how we get into that next gear like some of these other cities.
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Yes technically WF is in midtown. It would be awesome if a financial district developed in the Broadway/Washington area.
How do we get Scottrade, Citi, MasterCard, and Jones to entertain the idea? I would assume it would have to start with Corporate leadership. Someone like Stifel CEO.
How do we get Scottrade, Citi, MasterCard, and Jones to entertain the idea? I would assume it would have to start with Corporate leadership. Someone like Stifel CEO.
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You'd need to go back in time 15-20 yrs. They all either just built new campuses or signed long term leases. Downtown missed the window.