I feel like your bearish predictions are likely to be far more accurate to reality. Even then, they might be somewhat optimistic.
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Southwest Officially Launching Connections to Europe — What to Know
The airline also announced two more cities that will soon be connected to Europe.
When will STL be on the list?
https://www.travelandleisure.com/southwest-icelandair-baltimore-nashville-denver-8775770
The airline also announced two more cities that will soon be connected to Europe.
When will STL be on the list?
https://www.travelandleisure.com/southwest-icelandair-baltimore-nashville-denver-8775770
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An interesting thought as WOW gave us an Icelandic route for a hot minute.
Given that SWA runs 3 mil plus through STL and they operate in the Terminal that houses our other international flight a real possibility. My guess, however, is that it will be Orlando and Nashville.
Given that SWA runs 3 mil plus through STL and they operate in the Terminal that houses our other international flight a real possibility. My guess, however, is that it will be Orlando and Nashville.
Your bearish is too high.TRUESONJB wrote: ↑Feb 06, 2025It’s been about six months since I last posted on passenger projections for Lambert International Airport, and now that we have the final numbers for 2024, I wanted to share some updated projections. In 2024, the airport saw 15.95 million passengers, reflecting a 7.1% increase from the previous year. While the growth is slowing a bit compared to the post-pandemic boom, it’s clear Lambert is still on a solid path.
Looking Ahead: What Might Happen in the Next Ten Years
Bullish Projections:Bearish Projections (Reflecting New Terminal Impact Past 2031):
- 2025: 16,983,267 (+1.04M, +6.50%)
- 2026: 18,002,263 (+1.02M, +6.00%)
- 2027: 18,992,388 (+990K, +5.50%)
- 2028: 19,942,007 (+950K, +5.00%)
- 2029: 20,839,398 (+897K, +4.50%)
- 2030: 21,672,974 (+834K, +4.00%)
- 2031: 22,431,528 (+759K, +3.50%)
- 2032: 23,216,631 (+785K, +3.50%)
- 2033: 24,029,213 (+813K, +3.50%)
- 2034: 24,870,236 (+841K, +3.50%)
- 2035: 25,740,694 (+870K, +3.50%)
- 2025: 16,823,800 (+877K, +5.50%)
- 2026: 17,580,871 (+757K, +4.50%)
- 2027: 18,196,202 (+615K, +3.50%)
- 2028: 18,651,107 (+455K, +2.50%)
- 2029: 18,930,873 (+280K, +1.50%)
- 2030: 19,214,836 (+283K, +1.50%)
- 2031: 19,503,058 (+288K, +1.50%)
- 2032: 19,990,635 (+488K, +2.50%)
- 2033: 20,490,401 (+500K, +2.50%)
- 2034: 21,002,661 (+512K, +2.50%)
- 2035: 21,527,728 (+525K, +2.50%)
I think the airport is going to struggle to beat 2024 numbers in 2025. They are projected to be down seats most months from 2024.
Southwest is going to be pretty much flat as a company this year
Agreed that it is great for Lambert to be back up at 16M passengers, but the next stage of growth to 20M is really dependent on Southwest adding more flights and increasing connections which is not seeming likely in the short term. Maybe the airport can squeeze out 1 or 2% growth if some other airlines decide to add capacity, but it’s hard to see any type of “organic” O&D based growth beyond that in the short term.
If Southwest wanted to they could definitely grow to 20M over a few years, but with them trying to shore up their business right now and the new terminal still a few years away, it’s probably optimistic to think they will look to grow connections too much before the new terminal is closer to ready.
Maybe Southwest fixes thing quickly and decides to grow sooner rather than later. Otherwise it’s a little hard to figure out where the next few million additional passengers come from.
If Southwest wanted to they could definitely grow to 20M over a few years, but with them trying to shore up their business right now and the new terminal still a few years away, it’s probably optimistic to think they will look to grow connections too much before the new terminal is closer to ready.
Maybe Southwest fixes thing quickly and decides to grow sooner rather than later. Otherwise it’s a little hard to figure out where the next few million additional passengers come from.
Can Southwest even grow that much since they're chained to the Boeing 737?mtl_stl wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2025Agreed that it is great for Lambert to be back up at 16M passengers, but the next stage of growth to 20M is really dependent on Southwest adding more flights and increasing connections which is not seeming likely in the short term. Maybe the airport can squeeze out 1 or 2% growth if some other airlines decide to add capacity, but it’s hard to see any type of “organic” O&D based growth beyond that in the short term.
If Southwest wanted to they could definitely grow to 20M over a few years, but with them trying to shore up their business right now and the new terminal still a few years away, it’s probably optimistic to think they will look to grow connections too much before the new terminal is closer to ready.
Maybe Southwest fixes thing quickly and decides to grow sooner rather than later. Otherwise it’s a little hard to figure out where the next few million additional passengers come from.
There are rumors out there of them buying JetBlue. Not sure how serious they are though. Breeze would make more sense to me.dweebe wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2025Can Southwest even grow that much since they're chained to the Boeing 737?mtl_stl wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2025Agreed that it is great for Lambert to be back up at 16M passengers, but the next stage of growth to 20M is really dependent on Southwest adding more flights and increasing connections which is not seeming likely in the short term. Maybe the airport can squeeze out 1 or 2% growth if some other airlines decide to add capacity, but it’s hard to see any type of “organic” O&D based growth beyond that in the short term.
If Southwest wanted to they could definitely grow to 20M over a few years, but with them trying to shore up their business right now and the new terminal still a few years away, it’s probably optimistic to think they will look to grow connections too much before the new terminal is closer to ready.
Maybe Southwest fixes thing quickly and decides to grow sooner rather than later. Otherwise it’s a little hard to figure out where the next few million additional passengers come from.
That’s mainly a round about way of saying I’d they were to make an acquisition then that would change things.
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I thought United was buying JetBlue?jshank83 wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2025There are rumors out there of them buying JetBlue. Not sure how serious they are though. Breeze would make more sense to me.dweebe wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2025Can Southwest even grow that much since they're chained to the Boeing 737?mtl_stl wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2025Agreed that it is great for Lambert to be back up at 16M passengers, but the next stage of growth to 20M is really dependent on Southwest adding more flights and increasing connections which is not seeming likely in the short term. Maybe the airport can squeeze out 1 or 2% growth if some other airlines decide to add capacity, but it’s hard to see any type of “organic” O&D based growth beyond that in the short term.
If Southwest wanted to they could definitely grow to 20M over a few years, but with them trying to shore up their business right now and the new terminal still a few years away, it’s probably optimistic to think they will look to grow connections too much before the new terminal is closer to ready.
Maybe Southwest fixes thing quickly and decides to grow sooner rather than later. Otherwise it’s a little hard to figure out where the next few million additional passengers come from.
That’s mainly a round about way of saying I’d they were to make an acquisition then that would change things.
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With the activist investors in control at SWA past performance and methodologies are out the window.
United has said they are not talking to any airlines about acquisitions, etc.Bart Harley Jarvis wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2025I thought United was buying JetBlue?jshank83 wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2025There are rumors out there of them buying JetBlue. Not sure how serious they are though. Breeze would make more sense to me.dweebe wrote: ↑Feb 11, 2025Can Southwest even grow that much since they're chained to the Boeing 737?
That’s mainly a round about way of saying I’d they were to make an acquisition then that would change things.
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I have an exciting trip coming up with multiple stops across different time zones. Here’s my itinerary:
Departure:
• March 1: Depart St. Louis (STL) for Chicago. (Overnight stay)
• March 2: Depart Chicago at 9:00 AM for Hawaii, arriving at 2:45 PM. I’ll have a one-night layover in Hawaii.
• March 3: Depart Hawaii for Majuro, Marshall Islands.
• March 4: Due to crossing the International Date Line, it will now be March 4 when I arrive in Majuro.
• At Majuro, all passengers deplane.
• A select few of us, who have permission, will continue to Kwajalein Atoll, arriving at 1:00 PM (Tuesday, March 4).
Return Trip (Six Legs):
• March 7 (Friday): Depart Kwajalein on the same island hopper that originally brought me in. The flight makes stops at:
• Kosrae
• Pohnpei
• Truuk
• Guam (overnight stay)
• March 8 (Saturday): Depart Guam for Honolulu and fly into March 7th.
• From Honolulu, I fly to Chicago on a redeye back to March 8th, and then finally back to St. Louis (STL), arriving at 12:12 PM on Saturday, March 8.
Return legs below. The 3 small island hops are quick 40 min layover at each
Departure:
• March 1: Depart St. Louis (STL) for Chicago. (Overnight stay)
• March 2: Depart Chicago at 9:00 AM for Hawaii, arriving at 2:45 PM. I’ll have a one-night layover in Hawaii.
• March 3: Depart Hawaii for Majuro, Marshall Islands.
• March 4: Due to crossing the International Date Line, it will now be March 4 when I arrive in Majuro.
• At Majuro, all passengers deplane.
• A select few of us, who have permission, will continue to Kwajalein Atoll, arriving at 1:00 PM (Tuesday, March 4).
Return Trip (Six Legs):
• March 7 (Friday): Depart Kwajalein on the same island hopper that originally brought me in. The flight makes stops at:
• Kosrae
• Pohnpei
• Truuk
• Guam (overnight stay)
• March 8 (Saturday): Depart Guam for Honolulu and fly into March 7th.
• From Honolulu, I fly to Chicago on a redeye back to March 8th, and then finally back to St. Louis (STL), arriving at 12:12 PM on Saturday, March 8.
Return legs below. The 3 small island hops are quick 40 min layover at each
I've watched a few videos on that United island hopper flight, very unique experience.
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yeah, its an army garrison but also home of the Space Forces Space FenceTrololzilla wrote: ↑Feb 12, 2025Is the stop at Kwajalein related to something DoD?
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^Have fun! Some interesting history out that way, especially if you're interested in WWII. I expect that's not why you're going, but . . . I'm jealous.
^Same. For me, it's the geology of the area. Not many of us have visited atolls.
I expect that you'll be repping STL the entire trip...
I expect that you'll be repping STL the entire trip...
https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/regio ... s-airport/
Runway 11-29 at St. Louis Lambert International Airport was closed late Wednesday morning after a United Airlines regional jet slid off the runway just after landing.
The incident happened at 10:50 a.m. Flight 4427, operated by GoJet Airlines, departed Washington Dulles International Airport. The plane went into a section of grass.
The plane was carrying 27 people, including crew. No injuries have been reported
jshank83 wrote: ↑Feb 09, 2025Your bearish is too high.TRUESONJB wrote: ↑Feb 06, 2025It’s been about six months since I last posted on passenger projections for Lambert International Airport, and now that we have the final numbers for 2024, I wanted to share some updated projections. In 2024, the airport saw 15.95 million passengers, reflecting a 7.1% increase from the previous year. While the growth is slowing a bit compared to the post-pandemic boom, it’s clear Lambert is still on a solid path.
Looking Ahead: What Might Happen in the Next Ten Years
Bullish Projections:Bearish Projections (Reflecting New Terminal Impact Past 2031):
- 2025: 16,983,267 (+1.04M, +6.50%)
- 2026: 18,002,263 (+1.02M, +6.00%)
- 2027: 18,992,388 (+990K, +5.50%)
- 2028: 19,942,007 (+950K, +5.00%)
- 2029: 20,839,398 (+897K, +4.50%)
- 2030: 21,672,974 (+834K, +4.00%)
- 2031: 22,431,528 (+759K, +3.50%)
- 2032: 23,216,631 (+785K, +3.50%)
- 2033: 24,029,213 (+813K, +3.50%)
- 2034: 24,870,236 (+841K, +3.50%)
- 2035: 25,740,694 (+870K, +3.50%)
- 2025: 16,823,800 (+877K, +5.50%)
- 2026: 17,580,871 (+757K, +4.50%)
- 2027: 18,196,202 (+615K, +3.50%)
- 2028: 18,651,107 (+455K, +2.50%)
- 2029: 18,930,873 (+280K, +1.50%)
- 2030: 19,214,836 (+283K, +1.50%)
- 2031: 19,503,058 (+288K, +1.50%)
- 2032: 19,990,635 (+488K, +2.50%)
- 2033: 20,490,401 (+500K, +2.50%)
- 2034: 21,002,661 (+512K, +2.50%)
- 2035: 21,527,728 (+525K, +2.50%)
I think the airport is going to struggle to beat 2024 numbers in 2025. They are projected to be down seats most months from 2024.
Southwest is going to be pretty much flat as a company this year
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$114,000,000 contract for airfield maintenance and snow removal facilities relocation went to BPS last week and again this week for some changes
Dublin Airport CEO says they are targeting Austin and Pittsburgh in the US. I guess I understand Austin, but their passenger count has actually been flat for a few years and there has been at least one transatlantic carrier that pulled out recently.
Pittsburgh has under 10 million passengers. New terminal soon. Large medical and banking industries. And the NFL just announced that the Steelers will play the first-ever regular season game in Dublin.
The CEO's post is part of an ongoing dispute with the local government to allow the airport more landings. The airport has been hitting its cap.
In any case, they are not publicly talking STL.![]()
Sent from my Pixel 6a using Tapatalk
Pittsburgh has under 10 million passengers. New terminal soon. Large medical and banking industries. And the NFL just announced that the Steelers will play the first-ever regular season game in Dublin.
The CEO's post is part of an ongoing dispute with the local government to allow the airport more landings. The airport has been hitting its cap.
In any case, they are not publicly talking STL.
Sent from my Pixel 6a using Tapatalk
I don’t personally put a ton of stock in that list.NHampton wrote: ↑Feb 17, 2025Dublin Airport CEO says they are targeting Austin and Pittsburgh in the US. I guess I understand Austin, but their passenger count has actually been flat for a few years and there has been at least one transatlantic carrier that pulled out recently.
Pittsburgh has under 10 million passengers. New terminal soon. Large medical and banking industries. And the NFL just announced that the Steelers will play the first-ever regular season game in Dublin.
The CEO's post is part of an ongoing dispute with the local government to allow the airport more landings. The airport has been hitting its cap.
In any case, they are not publicly talking STL.
Sent from my Pixel 6a using Tapatalk
Austin would need a widebody. Not sure that makes sense with all the other airlines they already have. PIT has Iceland and BA. Why would IAG want to add PIT-DUB into that mix? That said PIT always has overpaid for service to Europe when they should be focusing on domestic routes.
The cities that get the routes will be the ones who pay the most anyway.
I also have personally moved off of Dublin and am now on London as to what route we get next (although any partner with Southwest, like Icelandair is always a wild card)
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Certainly Heathrow getting a 3rd runway will expand BA's route map and allow for more cities in North Americajshank83 wrote: ↑Feb 18, 2025.
I also have personally moved off of Dublin and am now on London as to what route we get next
I think these are the type of contracts will be huge for Lambert to move forward on New Terminal as well as the future Reorganization of facilities, utilities, dealing with old air national guard facilities and all of sudden Lambert has better facilities all around but the much needed space to do a lot of things over the next couple decades from new single single terminal concourse, to new ingress/egress to maybe future consolidated car rental center & hotel, to more on airport parking.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Feb 17, 2025$114,000,000 contract for airfield maintenance and snow removal facilities relocation went to BPS last week and again this week for some changes
..
Just wish they had a new vision for metrolink & how they could incorporate western expansion via a realignment & airport station when building out the new terminal/parking. Maybe metrolink will never happen to St Charles or even in the county. But you could at minimum update the connectivity as a whole for the airport & setup for a future automated people mover on future expansion that would be much more responsive & cost effective for on site airport facilities. Sorry to the St Louis folks but to me this lack of foresight is the one place where the region can move forward
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Southwest Airlines Ends 50 Years of ‘Heart’: Employees Say ‘This Company Will Never Recover’
The “heart” of Southwest Airlines died today, with the company’s first layoffs in corporate history.
https://viewfromthewing.com/southwest-airlines-ends-50-years-of-heart-employees-say-this-company-will-never-recover/?utm_source=BoardingArea&utm_medium=facebook
The “heart” of Southwest Airlines died today, with the company’s first layoffs in corporate history.
https://viewfromthewing.com/southwest-airlines-ends-50-years-of-heart-employees-say-this-company-will-never-recover/?utm_source=BoardingArea&utm_medium=facebook
......says the company employees that just were laid off.chris fuller wrote: ↑Feb 19, 2025Southwest Airlines Ends 50 Years of ‘Heart’: Employees Say ‘This Company Will Never Recover’
The “heart” of Southwest Airlines died today, with the company’s first layoffs in corporate history.
https://viewfromthewing.com/southwest-airlines-ends-50-years-of-heart-employees-say-this-company-will-never-recover/?utm_source=BoardingArea&utm_medium=facebook
The airline industry is just not stable right now. No jobs are stable under the new Federal administration, especially transportation and airline industry.
These employees also retained their high paying jobs during Covid because SWA didn't lay them off.