All good with me.so I'd appreciate you just dropping the subject
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I have no interest in arguing definitions, but part of my 403(b) is invested in real estate, part is in commodities, some in equities, etc. Seems simple, yes?
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Different thread, but I think it applies to the topic.
Has anyone heard anything about Roberts Tower sales? From my recollection, I thought they were supposed to begin selling the units at the beggining of March/early spring. I am very curious to see what the sales are like.
Has anyone heard anything about Roberts Tower sales? From my recollection, I thought they were supposed to begin selling the units at the beggining of March/early spring. I am very curious to see what the sales are like.
A REIT is an investment instrument. No bones about that.Alex Ihnen wrote:I have no interest in arguing definitions, but part of my 403(b) is invested in real estate, part is in commodities, some in equities, etc. Seems simple, yes?
In innov8ion case, he can argue EVERYTHING is NEVER an investment.
We bought downtown NOT as an investment. At the same time, we did not plan on drowning either (under water.) But since we have no plans to move or sell... we dont care about what the current market conditions are. In 5 years we hope at least be even, aka owe nothing if we sell. I guess that is what happens when you do a 100% loan
We bought downtown NOT as an investment. At the same time, we did not plan on drowning either (under water.) But since we have no plans to move or sell... we dont care about what the current market conditions are. In 5 years we hope at least be even, aka owe nothing if we sell. I guess that is what happens when you do a 100% loan
That's silly. I surely never stated that.zink wrote:In innov8ion case, he can argue EVERYTHING is NEVER an investment.
Samezink wrote:We bought downtown NOT as an investment. At the same time, we did not plan on drowning either (under water.) But since we have no plans to move or sell... we dont care about what the current market conditions are. In 5 years we hope at least be even, aka owe nothing if we sell. I guess that is what happens when you do a 100% loan
Regarding new home sales, below are some interesting data points. I wouldn't be surprised if the Roberts Tower is mothballed for a while longer.
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/prin ... louis.html
The Fed analysis shows 1.6 percent of area homes are in foreclosure, though that’s better than the 4 percent nationally. Add in mortgages that are 90 days or more past due, and that rate jumps to 4.8 percent here, compared with 7.5 percent nationally.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/ ... 4720110323The National Association of Realtors said Monday that sales of previously occupied homes fell last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million. That's down 9.6 percent from 5.4 million in January. The pace is far below the 6 million homes a year that economists say represents a healthy market. Nearly 40 percent of the sales last month were either foreclosures or short sales, when the seller accepts less than they owe on the mortgage.
One obstacle to a housing recovery is the glut of unsold homes on the market. Those numbers rose to 3.49 million units in February. It would take 8.6 months to clear them off the market at the February sales pace. Most analysts say a six-month supply represents a healthy supply of homes.
"It is unlikely that home prices can recover on a sustained basis until the inventory-to-sales balance improves and the number of distressed properties is significantly reduced," said Steven A. Wood, chief economist with Insight Economics.
Despite lean inventories, new home sales will likely continue to bounce along the bottom for a while until the glut of previously owned homes is whittled down. New home sales account for less than 10 percent of overall sales.
According to the National Association of Realtors, new home prices have been running 45 percent higher than existing home prices, a premium that is historically about 15 percent, indicating previously owned homes are selling well below the cost of construction.
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^The Robert's sure do seem to have a lot going on right now. I think their broadcasting company just had a million dollar judgment against them today as well. I guess they have the money to sit on this, I would imagine those loan payments would not be cheap.
I know you would like to come out of the gate swinging but I wonder at which point on their timeline they run out of patience/funding to sit on an empty building. I mean who wants to buy a "New" condo that is already a couple of years old? If no one has lived there, i guess it doesn't matter, but still. I would think they would like to capitalize on the effect of having a new tower when construction and the building itself is fresh on people's minds.
I know you would like to come out of the gate swinging but I wonder at which point on their timeline they run out of patience/funding to sit on an empty building. I mean who wants to buy a "New" condo that is already a couple of years old? If no one has lived there, i guess it doesn't matter, but still. I would think they would like to capitalize on the effect of having a new tower when construction and the building itself is fresh on people's minds.
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Story in Post on condo sales, specifically downtown. May finally be building up more steam as people was to be downtown.
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 4fdc7.html
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 4fdc7.html
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A lot of encouraging signs recently for downtown and the central corridor.
And why there isn't more new infill housing in the Downtown West area is beyond me. 
There's no need to wait until every old warehouse is filled with housing.
Everyone doesn't want to live in a refurbished building - no matter how nice it is. Give people more options.
There's no need to wait until every old warehouse is filled with housing.
Everyone doesn't want to live in a refurbished building - no matter how nice it is. Give people more options.
St. Louis needs new infill for sure, but St. Louis shouldn't discount the value of these large historic warehouse. St. Louis was blessed with being America's 4th largest city during the Gilded Age, which was an era of great industrial expansion and brawny architecture. Leaving us with a collection of proud turn of the century warehouses from the Mississippi River to Grand Avenue. I cant really think of too many cities outside of New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago that can honestly say they have miles of 19th century warehouse canyons. Washington, Locust, Olive etc. Not to mention the yet to be redeveloped Broadway/North Riverfront and Chouteau's Landing.
A lot of people just seem to equate progress with new shiny, glass towers. Places like Denver, Portland, Charlotte etc even Minneapolis didn't have similar sized downtown warehouse districts. So a lot of their new residential construction was on empty parking lots or older houses. I've said it before. We have 300 apartment developments in 12 story warehouses that take up a city block. In most cities, a 300 apartment development could be a 25 story glass tower depending on the lot size. Downtown St. Louis saw the largest percentage growth in America last decade filling up older buildings with lofts. Imagine how many hi rises would have likely been built if these warehouses were already occupied and new development had to take place on empty lots. I see a lot more Roberts Towers and SkyHouse proposals from Memorial to Grand. I personally see a tower/infill boom in the central corridor happening by 2020. Especially if the streetcar breaks ground by then.
A lot of people just seem to equate progress with new shiny, glass towers. Places like Denver, Portland, Charlotte etc even Minneapolis didn't have similar sized downtown warehouse districts. So a lot of their new residential construction was on empty parking lots or older houses. I've said it before. We have 300 apartment developments in 12 story warehouses that take up a city block. In most cities, a 300 apartment development could be a 25 story glass tower depending on the lot size. Downtown St. Louis saw the largest percentage growth in America last decade filling up older buildings with lofts. Imagine how many hi rises would have likely been built if these warehouses were already occupied and new development had to take place on empty lots. I see a lot more Roberts Towers and SkyHouse proposals from Memorial to Grand. I personally see a tower/infill boom in the central corridor happening by 2020. Especially if the streetcar breaks ground by then.
goat314, for the record, no one is suggesting that the older buildings that make up downtown's fabric be discounted at all.
Perhaps you were speaking generally, but we were not equating shiny new buildings to progress – although in reality it is – just as older renovated buildings are a demonstration of progress. We get that. We know about the awesome renovations of former moribund buildings in downtown into awesome reuses.
Older buildings should be (and have been) renovated when viable but newer buildings should be constructed to help the vitality of downtown i.e. compliment the historic fabric by having diverse offerings. There's no need to wait for the last few old buildings to be renovated. It'll happen regardless.
All we are suggesting is that we think there's room for both old and new – especially in Downtown West where there are so many vacant lots – and especially because the downtown residential market seems to have a demand for condos – and especially because it seems historic tax credits won't be as plentiful in the very near future.
Perhaps you were speaking generally, but we were not equating shiny new buildings to progress – although in reality it is – just as older renovated buildings are a demonstration of progress. We get that. We know about the awesome renovations of former moribund buildings in downtown into awesome reuses.
Older buildings should be (and have been) renovated when viable but newer buildings should be constructed to help the vitality of downtown i.e. compliment the historic fabric by having diverse offerings. There's no need to wait for the last few old buildings to be renovated. It'll happen regardless.
All we are suggesting is that we think there's room for both old and new – especially in Downtown West where there are so many vacant lots – and especially because the downtown residential market seems to have a demand for condos – and especially because it seems historic tax credits won't be as plentiful in the very near future.
Arch City, I was just speaking generally. I'm not against new, shiny infill. I do think they would compliment our historic buildings well. With new infill downtown St. Louis could be one of the few downtowns outside the East Coast and Chicago with that eclectic mix of historic and modern that make downtowns great and vibrant.
My point is that maybe the demand is not there, because there are still a large but rapid shrinking collection of historic buildings to rehab. Maybe downtown needs that last big push like downtown streetcar, fiber optic cables, TOD and form based code, or new streetscapes (all which are in the works) to really take itself to the next level.
We are seeing a lot of good articles lately about the downtown market being hot and only having a couple month supply etc., but why haven't we seen anymore big projects break ground lately? Are lenders and developers still skeptical? Does the city need to develop more incentives to promote downtown development?
One thing you dont see a lot of in St. Louis is urban speculative development. In other cities developers can get financing to build condo towers because they just know the buyers are going to be there...see Miami, Chicago, Atlanta etc. In St. Louis we have a great deal of investment and speculation in sprawl...see Page Avenue ext., flood plain development, and Chesterfield megamalls etc. Unfortunately, in St. Louis it seems like we have to have nearly 100% occupancy to get one modest apartment project financed and that's with historic tax credits. What's sad is that we are seeing cities like Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, practically sister cities, see way more new infill and speculative development. Is it just local lending culture?
My point is that maybe the demand is not there, because there are still a large but rapid shrinking collection of historic buildings to rehab. Maybe downtown needs that last big push like downtown streetcar, fiber optic cables, TOD and form based code, or new streetscapes (all which are in the works) to really take itself to the next level.
We are seeing a lot of good articles lately about the downtown market being hot and only having a couple month supply etc., but why haven't we seen anymore big projects break ground lately? Are lenders and developers still skeptical? Does the city need to develop more incentives to promote downtown development?
One thing you dont see a lot of in St. Louis is urban speculative development. In other cities developers can get financing to build condo towers because they just know the buyers are going to be there...see Miami, Chicago, Atlanta etc. In St. Louis we have a great deal of investment and speculation in sprawl...see Page Avenue ext., flood plain development, and Chesterfield megamalls etc. Unfortunately, in St. Louis it seems like we have to have nearly 100% occupancy to get one modest apartment project financed and that's with historic tax credits. What's sad is that we are seeing cities like Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, practically sister cities, see way more new infill and speculative development. Is it just local lending culture?
I get your points, and agree with most of them. My only point of contention is that demand is there and has been without all of the bells and whistles. Look at how fast Park-Pacific and The Laurel apartments filled up - no street car, no FOCs, no Google gigabits etc. Hell, there's barely any retail downtown. People just want a decent place to live. And they want options that aren't necessarily attached to for-sale loft condos, historic buildings or low-and-mixed income housing. The excuses are old if you ask me, but I am broke and control not one piece of land downtown.goat314 wrote:Arch City, I was just speaking generally. I'm not against new, shiny infill. I do think they would compliment our historic buildings well. With new infill downtown St. Louis could be one of the few downtowns outside the East Coast and Chicago with that eclectic mix of historic and modern that make downtowns great and vibrant.
My point is that maybe the demand is not there, because there are still a large but rapid shrinking collection of historic buildings to rehab. Maybe downtown needs that last big push like downtown streetcar, fiber optic cables, TOD and form based code, or new streetscapes (all which are in the works) to really take itself to the next level.
We are seeing a lot of good articles lately about the downtown market being hot and only having a couple month supply etc., but why haven't we seen anymore big projects break ground lately? Are lenders and developers still skeptical? Does the city need to develop more incentives to promote downtown development?
One thing you dont see a lot of in St. Louis is urban speculative development. In other cities developers can get financing to build condo towers because they just know the buyers are going to be there...see Miami, Chicago, Atlanta etc. In St. Louis we have a great deal of investment and speculation in sprawl...see Page Avenue ext., flood plain development, and Chesterfield megamalls etc. Unfortunately, in St. Louis it seems like we have to have nearly 100% occupancy to get one modest apartment project financed and that's with historic tax credits. What's sad is that we are seeing cities like Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, practically sister cities, see way more new infill and speculative development. Is it just local lending culture?
Nonetheless, downtown residential is hot right now and developers have to catch up. The city sure knows how to build garages (or once did). Why hasn't the city put out RFPs for vacant parcels located in downtown - especially downtown west? Is the city waiting on McKee to be the savior?
And by the way, nice small infill buildings of 100 feet (10-stories or less) would suffice to fill some of the gaps and residential demand.
Although I like height, another Roberts Tower or a SkyHouse would be nice, but not necessary.
I'm talking about something like these that have been proposed for downtown in the past.
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Although I like height, another Roberts Tower or a SkyHouse would be nice, but not necessary.
I'm talking about something like these that have been proposed for downtown in the past.
^ I agree Arch City, the Landing is a real opportunity area for that sort of development. With the new entrance to the arch grounds and access to Metrolink. We could be looking at a really unique riverfront TOD at the Landing. I believe a Laclede Landing TOD plan is in the works by SLDC. It could be similar to the Banks development in Cincinnati but better with access to Metrolink and a national park.
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Its pretty hard to make new urban construction (aka not that thing in Forest Park South East) work for apartments until rents get above $1.50 psf. This would be with minimal subsidy, maybe a tax abatement or small TIF if there was enough street level commercial. Parking arrangements to satisfy the lenders is as usual in St Louis a challenge for the financing piece, but is secondary to the $ psf rent needed. This is the main reason we have seen the historic conversions as well as the layering of LIHTC credits with historic into deals thus far in downtown, it gets the rents to what the market will bear. With strong occupancy levels and rising rents the numbers are getting closer. New residential construction is much easier to make the numbers on a condo development but nobody is lending on that deal any time too soon. It will happen though and is not too far off if positive economics continue going forward.
^ That was kind of the point I was making earlier. There are still so many potential rehab opportunities in downtown and downtown west. Easily a few thousand more units in rehabbed buildings. Unless the HTC are totally eliminated I dont see the warehouse to apartment trend stopping anytime soon.
It is encouraging to see the downtown market is still in demand and rapidly growing. I do think we will see significant new construction by 2020. New construction will definitely open up downtown to a totally new demographic. The potential is definitely there, but I just think downtown is a couple years away from reaching critical mass and we just need something big to happen downtown to push it over the edge like major company relocation, streetcar breaking ground, large development announcement, infrastructure improvement.
It is encouraging to see the downtown market is still in demand and rapidly growing. I do think we will see significant new construction by 2020. New construction will definitely open up downtown to a totally new demographic. The potential is definitely there, but I just think downtown is a couple years away from reaching critical mass and we just need something big to happen downtown to push it over the edge like major company relocation, streetcar breaking ground, large development announcement, infrastructure improvement.
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Yep a huge jobs relocation to downtown (particularly tech related and from out of the state/region into STL) would be enormous for the metro area and especially downtown. And of course growth& hiring for the many companies who are in downtown now. The Law School is a big deal too in terms of density & daily activity and disposable dollars.
And you are absolutely right, while there has been a tremendous amount of progress to fill & re-purpose existing buildings there are still a number of them to be developed - and hopefully soon!
And you are absolutely right, while there has been a tremendous amount of progress to fill & re-purpose existing buildings there are still a number of them to be developed - and hopefully soon!
Apartments coming to Millennium Center downtown
April 12, 2013 12:15 am • By Tim Bryant tbryant@post-dispatch.com 314-340-8206
ST. LOUIS • Downtown’s first glass-walled office tower has a new owner who plans to relocate existing tenants to lower floors and renovate the higher floors as apartments.
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 3a521.html
This sentence stuck out big time to me.
“I think that if you plopped a thousand apartments downtown right now you’d fill them up by the end of July,” he said.
Are new units being slowly released on the market by developers to keep prices high or do banks still view downtown St. Louis as a risky market to invest in?
Either way I agree with his assessment. Downtown St. Louis simply lacks the kind of speculative building that goes on any other markets, even slow growth markets. I honestly think Downtown has the potential to grow at an even faster rate than it did last decade if we can get some more units built. Obviously we cant get them built fast enough and I know there are people that want to live downtown but lack access.
April 12, 2013 12:15 am • By Tim Bryant tbryant@post-dispatch.com 314-340-8206
ST. LOUIS • Downtown’s first glass-walled office tower has a new owner who plans to relocate existing tenants to lower floors and renovate the higher floors as apartments.
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 3a521.html
This sentence stuck out big time to me.
“I think that if you plopped a thousand apartments downtown right now you’d fill them up by the end of July,” he said.
Are new units being slowly released on the market by developers to keep prices high or do banks still view downtown St. Louis as a risky market to invest in?
Either way I agree with his assessment. Downtown St. Louis simply lacks the kind of speculative building that goes on any other markets, even slow growth markets. I honestly think Downtown has the potential to grow at an even faster rate than it did last decade if we can get some more units built. Obviously we cant get them built fast enough and I know there are people that want to live downtown but lack access.
Downtown & Downtown West will have to add 4,631 residents to match their 2000-2010 growth, and they'll have to add 11,756 to maintain their growth rate. (For comparisons sake this would be like adding all of Rock Hill or Crestwood to Downtown respectively).
I think the second number would necessitate new construction, but that the first is achievable without it. There are still enough buildings that qualify for historic tax credits (along with other conversions that don't relying on them, ie the Millenium Center Building and Roberts Tower) to add 4,000+ residents.
I think the second number would necessitate new construction, but that the first is achievable without it. There are still enough buildings that qualify for historic tax credits (along with other conversions that don't relying on them, ie the Millenium Center Building and Roberts Tower) to add 4,000+ residents.
Hard for most local dev's to get financing. And most non local dev's believe other cities offer better opportunities.goat314 wrote:Are new units being slowly released on the market by developers to keep prices high or do banks still view downtown St. Louis as a risky market to invest in?