urbanSTL

That's it; no more trips east of I-270. Too dangerous.

More shootings in west county than downtown this year

New Brookings Report...
The Geography of Crime in Four US Cities: Perceptions and Reality

Of particular note, the perception of Downtowns being dangerous, when they are not really contributing to the overall increases in crime in a city.

It’s not typical for KC to lead STL in number of homicides at this point in the year.

KC is currently 11% over it’s 2020 peak and 20% over where it was at this time last year. STL doesn’t provide day-by-day progress but if April remains a quiet month, STL will be about 15 to 20% under 2020 and 2022.

According to KCPD, through April 12th represents on average 23-27% of annual homicides. Assuming that is the case this year, KC is on track for 177 to 208.

According to SLMPD, through April 30th represents on average 25% of annual homicides. Assuming that is the case this year, St. Louis is on track for 148 to 160 this year.

KC will be able to avoid most scrutiny using per capita thanks to sprawled jurisdiction/population but still a troubling trend.

addxb2 wrote: ↑

Apr 12, 2023

It’s not typical for KC to lead STL in number of homicides at this point in the year.

KC is currently 11% over it’s 2020 peak and 20% over where it was at this time last year. STL doesn’t provide day-by-day progress but if April remains a quiet month, STL will be about 15 to 20% under 2020 and 2022.  

According to KCPD, through April 12th represents on average 23-27% of annual homicides. Assuming that is the case this year, KC is on track for 177 to 208.

According to SLMPD, through April 30th represents on average 25% of annual homicides. Assuming that is the case this year, St. Louis is on track for 148 to 160 this year.

KC will be able to avoid most scrutiny using per capita thanks to sprawled jurisdiction/population but still a troubling trend.

Surely murders can't be rising in KC, I've been told that state control of the police is far more effective than local governance.

I remember seeing things with homicide numbers in different cities is that there are differences in current trends based on if they started to have a rise in homicides around 2014 or in 2020. If i recall there are more cities in the latter group than the former.

Also, should probably be mentioned that SLMPD has clear 78% of homicides vs. 56% at KCPD.

Something STL is doing is working.

Hot take: Is it likely that the last few bloody years for homicides in St. Louis have led to fewer people having a target on their back? Like, when there's fewer people to kill, of course we'd see a decline in homicides. I doubt it has much to do with enforcement, throwing criminals in jail or anything else. I feel strongly that with a lot of people staying home in 2020, the targeted victims by the gangs and nutjobs in St. Louis were easier to find and the surveillance of their victims carried over into 2021 and 2022. Most of these homicides were not random, they were targeted.

This year, STL will see a decrease because the amount of people the trash of society wants to kill has diminished. That's something cites like Kansas City, Chicago, and others have yet to see (and they'll freak out when the time does come for them). Detroit sort of saw this already.

Granted I could be wrong about this, but my opinion says the trash are thinning themselves out to the benefit of the city in the long run. Bad to say? Yes. My honest opinion that I believe? Yes.

So far it looks like homicides have gone down in STL every year since Tishaura Jones was elected mayor in spite of nationally increasing crime over the same time period. I hope that remains true this year!

Shootings are down too, from like 2500 in last 6 months of 2021 to 1400 in first 6 months of 2022, last time I saw that stat. You see this in the weapons law violation data too that SLMPD posts monthly and agg assault

Crime must be down when the lead stories on local news at 4:30 today is a fire in Ohio, a fire in New Jersey, NPR quitting Twitter and king Chuck coronation

KSDK - Man turns himself in after road rage turns deadly in north St. Louis County

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/crime ... 2e61238f3b

addxb2 wrote: ↑

Apr 12, 2023

It’s not typical for KC to lead STL in number of homicides at this point in the year.

KC is currently 11% over it’s 2020 peak and 20% over where it was at this time last year. STL doesn’t provide day-by-day progress but if April remains a quiet month, STL will be about 15 to 20% under 2020 and 2022.  

According to KCPD, through April 12th represents on average 23-27% of annual homicides. Assuming that is the case this year, KC is on track for 177 to 208.

According to SLMPD, through April 30th represents on average 25% of annual homicides. Assuming that is the case this year, St. Louis is on track for 148 to 160 this year.

KC will be able to avoid most scrutiny using per capita thanks to sprawled jurisdiction/population but still a troubling trend.

Thanks for sharing. Super interesting. 

Now, what happens to this comp when we include STL County murders?  We all love talking about how STL's national crime rankings are jacked up because of our weird municipal borders.  So, it'd only be fair to use STL City + Country here, yes?

I'd guess STL because its 25% bigger than KC will still have around 25% more homicides then.

chriss752 wrote: ↑

Apr 12, 2023

Granted I could be wrong about this, but my opinion says the trash are thinning themselves out to the benefit of the city in the long run. Bad to say? Yes. My honest opinion that I believe? Yes.

Well by "trash" here I think you mean "disenfranchised minority youths who take the law into their own hands because the laws of society exist only to impoverish and not to protect them." But yeah it seems plausible for all I know.

Is there any other cities that are noticing sizable decreases in crime? Would be interesting to see if theres any connections to see a possible cause. One that I keep thinking is that other places are not for the most part is because their increase happened in 2020, years after it started to rise in St. Louis so it could be a cyclical reason. Was thinking Baltimore was the other main example of a place that had a crime rise starting around 2014 and maybe they are similar in this regard.

A pretty fascinating look at the divide in crime in Kansas City between the Northland and south of the river, which is still a sprawling area but more resembling an actual city. Those population numbers are from the 2020 census and my understanding is that the Northland has continued to grow in population estimates since, but south has been declining a bit. On both raw numbers and a per capita basis, y.t.d. homicide is higher in KC south of the River than in STL City.

^And of course the south of the river part is the city part and the north of the river part is essentially industry, suburbs, and sprawl.

^Exactly. The only time I go north of the river in KC is to visit friends and family there. 

I would guess that the vast majority of tourists to Kansas City never venture north of the MO River. 

Murder downtown in Kiener plaza maybe 100 feet from Peabody at around 3:30pm today.

I walked past there maybe five minutes before, then heard the gunshots from a few blocks away. I saw nothing at all out of the ordinary. Seemed quiet. Didn't see any people.

eee123 wrote:I walked past there maybe five minutes before, then heard the gunshots from a few blocks away. I saw nothing at all out of the ordinary. Seemed quiet. Didn't see any people.

Based on what a co-worker told me, a young guy (probably a teen) had an altercation with a guy either near or sitting on a bench that resulted in the shots.

The man was shot around 3:45 p.m. Lt. Donna Garrett with the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department said the man ran to 7th and Market in Kiener Plaza after being shot, where he collapsed. He was pronounced dead at the scene.

The suspect fled the scene. No information was immediately known on their identity, but police said it is believed the attack was targeted. At least 15 shots were fired in the incident.