Thankfully, we are still 30% below the peak of 267 in 1993.STLrainbow wrote:Unfortunately, what is alarming is the city has returned to early 90's homicide rates and that simply has to end.
Greg
Greg
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^ very true, but to reach that number today our homicide rate would be truly unprecedented... something like 85/100,000. As it stands, with our present nation-leading rate, we can expect people to continue to abandon the neighborhoods where the violent crime is concentrated and the entire city being impacted.
I've been thinking about taking up a mapping project for the neighborhood crime data, possibly making some gifs of the trends since 2000 or possibly the 1990s. Would people be interested in seeing the finished product?
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Can someone explain how it is that Sam Dotson has the authority to enter into a contract and obligate the city of St. Louis with a television producer to film a reality TV show about the mean streets of St. Louis? ("The First 48" - about murder and the first 48 hours of the investigation).
Does this "contract" need to be approved by the Board of E and A?
This seems foul.
Does this "contract" need to be approved by the Board of E and A?
This seems foul.
Especially considering how often the show has been involved in locking up innocent people.Northside Neighbor wrote:Can someone explain how it is that Sam Dotson has the authority to enter into a contract and obligate the city of St. Louis with a television producer to film a reality TV show about the mean streets of St. Louis? ("The First 48" - about murder and the first 48 hours of the investigation).
Does this "contract" need to be approved by the Board of E and A?
This seems foul.
Ask yourselves...........why after years and years of saying "No" - by the STLPD - why does Dotson finally say, "Yes"?
If they ("The First 48") are "humanizing" detectives now, weren't they humanizing detectives during all of the "No" years?
The difference now, in my opinion, is that backdoor "Yes" money was exchanged. I could be wrong. I have absolutely no proof, but this sudden "change of heart" is suspicious to me.
Additionally, this could be a double-edged sword for St. Louis. It could help St. Louisans see - beyond local news blurbs and stories - how violent the community/city really is OR it could force leadership to dig deeper in order to address quality of life issues in the city OR it could send people running farther into the hills.
Again, I could be VERY wrong, but I think this has the potential to blow up in the city's face and actually increase crime and murder. Some idiots could do crimes hoping their crimes would end up on the show. Far-fetched? Most criminals are stupid.
For the city, there's just too much risk associated with this show.
If they ("The First 48") are "humanizing" detectives now, weren't they humanizing detectives during all of the "No" years?
The difference now, in my opinion, is that backdoor "Yes" money was exchanged. I could be wrong. I have absolutely no proof, but this sudden "change of heart" is suspicious to me.
Additionally, this could be a double-edged sword for St. Louis. It could help St. Louisans see - beyond local news blurbs and stories - how violent the community/city really is OR it could force leadership to dig deeper in order to address quality of life issues in the city OR it could send people running farther into the hills.
Again, I could be VERY wrong, but I think this has the potential to blow up in the city's face and actually increase crime and murder. Some idiots could do crimes hoping their crimes would end up on the show. Far-fetched? Most criminals are stupid.
For the city, there's just too much risk associated with this show.
I would have to see the statistics where first 48 filmed to see if there are any differences. I know they've been in Kansas City and New Orleans from the couple of times I've watched it.
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My question remains: what gives Dotson the authority to do this? He's not the chief executive officer of the city. If there's a contract for payment to the city, that should require some form of approval. This is not routine police department procurement or business.
Tishaura Jones has come out publicly against this plan. What about the mayor, comptroller, pres of b of a, and the rest of the aldermen?
And if the city is getting paid for this, where does the money go?
Tishaura Jones has come out publicly against this plan. What about the mayor, comptroller, pres of b of a, and the rest of the aldermen?
And if the city is getting paid for this, where does the money go?
My first product of playing around with the crime data; averaging out homicides over the period that data is available (2008-2016 minus December). I also controlled for population, since larger neighborhoods like Dutchtown have relatively high total numbers of homicides, but also have much larger populations.
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Full map here.
Full map here.
Also, the following neighborhoods had 0 homicides over the period for which data is available:
Ellendale
Franz Park
Kings Oak
North Hampton
South Hampton
Southwest Garden
Visitation Park
Wydown Skinker
Ellendale
Franz Park
Kings Oak
North Hampton
South Hampton
Southwest Garden
Visitation Park
Wydown Skinker
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Good stuff, ebsy.... just thinking out loud, but if you could break down that time frame into two maps that might be helpful to highlight neighborhood change.... one for 2008-2013 and another for 2014-2016. The latter would reflect the sharp increase the past few years.
Not exactly what you had in mind, but I broke the time down into two categories (2008-13 and 2014-16) and averaged out yearly homicides per 1000 residents, and then mapped the difference for the two periods. Darker shades of red means more homicides, blue fewer. Not really sure what to make of it.
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It's possible that I would have better luck by using the typical 100,000 residents, but in any case that would just move decimal points two places over. Full map here.
It's possible that I would have better luck by using the typical 100,000 residents, but in any case that would just move decimal points two places over. Full map here.
Homicide jumped in some of our peer cities last year, but still depressing how many we have here. Some unofficial numbers for some of our similarly-sized peers that saw a drop last year:
STL: 188
CiN: 62
PITT: 56
Minneapolis: 37
So we had more than those three cities combined. The Cincy & Pittsburgh combined total of 122 was pretty much what we in 2013, before our big jump. Somehow we gotta drive our numbers down... by a lot.
STL: 188
CiN: 62
PITT: 56
Minneapolis: 37
So we had more than those three cities combined. The Cincy & Pittsburgh combined total of 122 was pretty much what we in 2013, before our big jump. Somehow we gotta drive our numbers down... by a lot.
It'll hurt St. Louis reputation nationally until that number gets under control. It doesn't matter if it's isolated to "specific neighborhoods or most of the city is generally safe". Just saying St. Louis has more homicides then CIN, PITT and Minn combined would be pretty eye opening to many people
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our problem is drugs + guns + poverty (and f*cking Chicago). we've got to find a way to combat the influx of drugs and guns in the short term. (and, yes, we also need to continue addressing poverty but that seems, realistically, like a longer-term goal). that's why i keep harping on the Persistent Surveillance thing.STLrainbow wrote:Homicide jumped in some of our peer cities last year, but still depressing how many we have here. Some unofficial numbers for some of our similarly-sized peers that saw a drop last year:
STL: 188
CiN: 66
PITT: 56
Minneapolis: 37
So we had more than those three cities combined. The Cincy & Pittsburgh combined total of 122 was pretty much what we in 2013, before our big jump. Somehow we gotta drive our numbers down... by a lot.
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Another way of looking at things is just imagine the possibilities for Saint Louis City if we could drive down homicides to a consistent level of around 70 a year like Cincy. Even getting things down to where they were a few years ago (110 or so) would be dramatic at this point.joelo wrote:It'll hurt St. Louis reputation nationally until that number gets under control. It doesn't matter if it's isolated to "specific neighborhoods or most of the city is generally safe". Just saying St. Louis has more homicides then CIN, PITT and Minn combined would be pretty eye opening to many people
^^ definitely not all is as positive elsewhere as CIN/PITT/MINN... things have been all over the map with our rust belt/midwest peers. KC, CLE and COL are three that saw an increase in '16. INDY, DET, MIL, BUF among those that were pretty much unchanged like us (small drop to small increase range).
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"How to Predict Gentrification: Look for Falling Crime" Read this piece in today's New York Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/upsho ... crime.html
I agree with the findings in this piece. If St. Louis City could just start to reduce violent crime, I believe folks would move to the city in droves. In some ways, places like Maplewood represent the next best alternative -- city-like homes and neighborhoods without the high crime levels. In fact, if the whole region contributes resources to reducing urban crime, it raises all property values in the metro area on average by a lot more than the effort would cost.
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/upsho ... crime.html
I agree with the findings in this piece. If St. Louis City could just start to reduce violent crime, I believe folks would move to the city in droves. In some ways, places like Maplewood represent the next best alternative -- city-like homes and neighborhoods without the high crime levels. In fact, if the whole region contributes resources to reducing urban crime, it raises all property values in the metro area on average by a lot more than the effort would cost.
Who wants to be a St. Louis cop?
http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2017/01/0 ... -shortage/
http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2017/01/0 ... -shortage/
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Pretty good look on the progress/frustration with the "comprehensive crime plan" announced Dec 2015...
One year in, some progress, some frustration with St. Louis crime plan
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crim ... 44e30.html
One year in, some progress, some frustration with St. Louis crime plan
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crim ... 44e30.html