urbanSTL

STLrainbow wrote:Pretty good look on the progress/frustration with the "comprehensive crime plan" announced Dec 2015...

One year in, some progress, some frustration with St. Louis crime plan
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crim ... 44e30.html

Among the notable rises outside of Chicago were increases of 56 percent in Memphis, 61 percent in San Antonio, 44 percent in Louisville, 36 percent in Phoenix and 31 percent in Las Vegas. Taken together, those six cities accounted for 76 percent of the overall big city murder rise in 2016.

The 2016 murder capital of the U.S.

St. Louis likely remained the national murder capital of the United States based on murder rate, with nearly 60 murders per 100,000 residents. St. Louis has had the country’s highest murder rate each year since 2014. Baltimore likely had the country’s second-highest murder rate for the second-consecutive year with roughly 52 murders per 100,000 residents, with Detroit, New Orleans and Cleveland probably rounding out the top five. The table below shows the top 10 big cities in terms of estimated murder rate calculated using the FBI’s 2015 population totals for each city. This kind of cross-city comparison can be tricky, however, because cities draw their borders differently: St. Louis and Baltimore, for example, include only a relatively small geographic area around their downtowns, while cities such as Phoenix and Los Angeles include large suburban areas within their borders.

gregl wrote:I know it's a small data set and in the winter... but through the 1st 8 days of 2017, we've had 1 homicide.

quincunx wrote:FiveThirtyEight - U.S. Cities Experienced Another Big Rise In Murder In 2016

Among the notable rises outside of Chicago were increases of 56 percent in Memphis, 61 percent in San Antonio, 44 percent in Louisville, 36 percent in Phoenix and 31 percent in Las Vegas. Taken together, those six cities accounted for 76 percent of the overall big city murder rise in 2016.

The 2016 murder capital of the U.S.

St. Louis likely remained the national murder capital of the United States based on murder rate, with nearly 60 murders per 100,000 residents. St. Louis has had the country’s highest murder rate each year since 2014. Baltimore likely had the country’s second-highest murder rate for the second-consecutive year with roughly 52 murders per 100,000 residents, with Detroit, New Orleans and Cleveland probably rounding out the top five. The table below shows the top 10 big cities in terms of estimated murder rate calculated using the FBI’s 2015 population totals for each city. This kind of cross-city comparison can be tricky, however, because cities draw their borders differently: St. Louis and Baltimore, for example, include only a relatively small geographic area around their downtowns, while cities such as Phoenix and Los Angeles include large suburban areas within their borders.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/u- ... r-in-2016/

STLrainbow wrote: Not a big fan of that piece... as the first snippet shows it did say that the majority of the increase is driven by a few cities, but it didn't address at all the fact that quite a few cities homicide have dropped or are relatively unchanged the past few years. That's important if we're trying to get a better understanding of not only what's going on nationally but also what might be working in those more fortunate cities.

MarkHaversham wrote: How do you know it isn't random variance?

The homicide total holds as the city's deadliest in two decades.

Dotson emphasized that per capita, the homicide rate is only about half of the peak, in 1993.

"Everybody talks about crime as the worst they've ever seen it, but if you look at per capita, there are fewer crimes now than there were in 1970 and there's half the amount of crime in the city now than there was in at its peak in 1993," he said.

That said, Dotson acknowledged that violent crimes — homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — were up 4.4 percent over 2015. Rapes were up by 25, robberies by 114 and aggravated assaults by 116.

Ebsy wrote:If we don't get the murder rate down, Donald Trump might threaten to invade us!