You're right that population statistics are problematic, particularly from 2000 to the present. The FBI and the Census Bureau use different estimating methods, both of which show the plunge from the 350s to the 320s. Unless 30,000 people moved out, something is seriously wrong with the mid-2000s or the 2010-onward numbers.
- 11K
^ What's wrong is that the city continually challenged the Census estimate throughout the decade - insisting that the population was increasing. I forget if they used housing permits or addresses or what (or anything at all) to make their case. Anyway, they were wrong, as the 2010 Census showed. They are no longer challenging counts and absent any other evidence the assumption is that the city continues to lose 1-2K residents each year.
- 1,642
Much like Stephen Colbert I don't see color but by glancing at the news of the downtown business school shooting yesterday I really thought we had a good chance of having a white guy shooting someone in the city for a change (excluding home invasions).
Alas, it just wasn't to be.
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metr ... 92ec0.html
Alas, it just wasn't to be.
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metr ... 92ec0.html
- 592
An interesting "predictions thread" on Coptalk has it that three SLMPD districts are getting closed/reorganized this year with the transfer to city control.
http://members.boardhost.com/stlouiscop ... 81785.html
http://members.boardhost.com/stlouiscop ... 81785.html
Actually the 3rd and 9th are supposed to merge, which sounds terrible considering the third district is already too large and officers are spread too thin. Try getting a timely response at the north end of the third district. Not fun at all.
- 592
I assume (maybe wrongly?) that they'll redraw their district maps in that case.
http://www.slmpd.org/your_info.shtml
http://www.slmpd.org/your_info.shtml
- 88
Found out that a neighbor's relative was unsuccessfully held up at gunpoint last week in Dogtown (right across from the Dewey School). She was leaving after visiting, around 11:30, walking to her car, which was in front of the house, and was approached by a guy asking for everything she had.
After telling him she only had $1, and his continued insistence, she screamed for help and both her relative and someone from the apartment complex heard her.
The guys took off, but she had their license # and the cops caught them on Manchester.
After going down to the station ID the perps - I'm using all the lingo I've learned from the TV - the cops told the relative that the guys were from North County (there's no accusation or suggestion in that, only stating that people are coming into Dogtown from far and wide).
Good times.
After telling him she only had $1, and his continued insistence, she screamed for help and both her relative and someone from the apartment complex heard her.
The guys took off, but she had their license # and the cops caught them on Manchester.
After going down to the station ID the perps - I'm using all the lingo I've learned from the TV - the cops told the relative that the guys were from North County (there's no accusation or suggestion in that, only stating that people are coming into Dogtown from far and wide).
Good times.
This seems to be happening more and more, but why? why drive 20 mins to dogtown, brentwood, south city or the west end to rob someone?dogtowndan wrote:Found out that a neighbor's relative was unsuccessfully held up at gunpoint last week in Dogtown (right across from the Dewey School). She was leaving after visiting, around 11:30, walking to her car, which was in front of the house, and was approached by a guy asking for everything she had.
After telling him she only had $1, and his continued insistence, she screamed for help and both her relative and someone from the apartment complex heard her.
The guys took off, but she had their license # and the cops caught them on Manchester.
After going down to the station ID the perps - I'm using all the lingo I've learned from the TV - the cops told the relative that the guys were from North County (there's no accusation or suggestion in that, only stating that people are coming into Dogtown from far and wide).
Good times.
We are off to a bad start this year, if there was one of my 2013 predictions that I wanted to be right on it was reduction in crime, lets hope things turn around soon.
- 3,767
^I think the reason we down in South City are easy targets is simple. First off, we have lots of people who still have nice things to steal, money to
steal, we are sometimes complacent and our areas have
easy and quick access to highways, which make the getaway easy.
Not to mention, if necessary, they can drive and get
lost in the maze of streets, if being chased.
Looks like this was an inside job:
http://fox2now.com/2013/01/17/home-inva ... connected/
2 more shootings last night. 2013 is off and running! One on South Grand and Gasconade.
http://fox2now.com/2013/01/17/man-found ... -st-louis/
steal, we are sometimes complacent and our areas have
easy and quick access to highways, which make the getaway easy.
Not to mention, if necessary, they can drive and get
lost in the maze of streets, if being chased.
Looks like this was an inside job:
http://fox2now.com/2013/01/17/home-inva ... connected/
2 more shootings last night. 2013 is off and running! One on South Grand and Gasconade.
http://fox2now.com/2013/01/17/man-found ... -st-louis/
In the last census, it appears the neighborhoods around Gravois Park and Dutchtown became poorer and consequently blacker or the other way around. I assume the crime in S. City is driven by these local neighborhoods, as we know that in general STL crime falls along economic/racial/class lines. What drove the changes in these neighborhoods? Was there a shift from owner-occupied to absentee landlord? Did something else happen?
Is this an argument in favor of those hideous, street blocking, f#^king waste of money pieces of cement that aggressively ruin the street grid and the ability of anyone to conveniently or intuitively move from point A to point B?we are sometimes complacent and our areas have
easy and quick access to highways, which make the getaway easy.
Not to mention, if necessary, they can drive and get
lost in the maze of streets, if being chased.
- 8,912
Is this really happening more often or are we just hearing about it more - with internet boards, news on our smart phones, etc.
I'm not trying to downplay the violence. It just makes me wonder, ya know?
I'm not trying to downplay the violence. It just makes me wonder, ya know?
- 8,155
The economist/blogger Kevin Drum recently gained a lot of media attention with his attribution to the national drop in crime to lower lead levels.
I think there is much to this and it also seems that the Saint Louis story fits rather well into this thesis. Remember, there were 2 signficant actions with respect to lead. One is the complete elimination of leaded gasoline and the second is the harder to tackle problem of eliminating lead paint from residences. Saint Louis has seen a drop in crime rates since the late 60s. But we also have one of the most lead-contaminated housing stock in the country, particularly in North Saint Louis. Fortunately, some more aggressive efforts to eliminate lead were conducted in recent years although this has seen reduced activity with lower fed funding since 2009(thanks Kit Bond for past fed funding!). Anyway, the expectation would be that as fewer kids in Saint Louis are exposed to lead paint in homes, the lower the crime rate will continue to dip. Let's hope!
Certainly lead levels wouldn't be the only reason for the national trend, but it very well could be a major one.
I think there is much to this and it also seems that the Saint Louis story fits rather well into this thesis. Remember, there were 2 signficant actions with respect to lead. One is the complete elimination of leaded gasoline and the second is the harder to tackle problem of eliminating lead paint from residences. Saint Louis has seen a drop in crime rates since the late 60s. But we also have one of the most lead-contaminated housing stock in the country, particularly in North Saint Louis. Fortunately, some more aggressive efforts to eliminate lead were conducted in recent years although this has seen reduced activity with lower fed funding since 2009(thanks Kit Bond for past fed funding!). Anyway, the expectation would be that as fewer kids in Saint Louis are exposed to lead paint in homes, the lower the crime rate will continue to dip. Let's hope!
Certainly lead levels wouldn't be the only reason for the national trend, but it very well could be a major one.
- 11K
^ The other two popular explanations: increased use of birth control and legal abortion in 70's and on mean many fewer black youth today; we've locked up so many people that there are fewer on the streets to perpetrate crimes.
- 1,642
This is probably the same two dudes who busted in another house in the Soulard/McKinley/Lafayette area last week in the middle of the afternoon (I'm being intentionally vague about the location). They had guns, people were home. That one has gone unreported like many incidents. Looks like a crime spree. Hopefully it will end with both of them dead somehow.
- 8,155
yeah, it is a reminder that there is crime out there and often is seems that its particularly bad but in reality that isn't necessarily so. We just have to look at the numbers to see if there really is a trend.... e.g. how many homicides generally occur in January?moorlander wrote:Is this really happening more often or are we just hearing about it more - with internet boards, news on our smart phones, etc.
I'm not trying to downplay the violence. It just makes me wonder, ya know?
- 8,155
These indeed are popular, but don't seem to have as much scientific heft behind them as being primary reasons for the drop. But what we can eliminate with pretty much 100% certainty is that it is an improvement in schools that is causing the drop!Alex Ihnen wrote:^ The other two popular explanations: increased use of birth control and legal abortion in 70's and on mean many fewer black youth today; we've locked up so many people that there are fewer on the streets to perpetrate crimes.
I guess if you ask Alex "I've Got the Data" Ihnen, you shall receive!Alex Ihnen wrote:11 homicides last Januray...how many so far this year?
- 88
I can only answer based upon my own experiences - based on a general sharing of info around the neighborhood, there is definitely a sense of a more aggressive expansion of out-and-out crime than previous years. And it's not as though I suddenly started talking to people in the neighborhood or suddenly transformed into a social butterfly.moorlander wrote:Is this really happening more often or are we just hearing about it more - with internet boards, news on our smart phones, etc.
I'm not trying to downplay the violence. It just makes me wonder, ya know?
(please don't take this as alarmist or reactionary - just reporting what I hear)
- 1,642
^ I have to agree. There are many unreported incidents once you get to know your neighbors. It's still a great place to live but the same forces that have been responsible for decay are still there. Nowadays, decent people are not going to pack up and move to the suburbs. It's going to be the other way around. No more tragedies and erasing of history.
BTW, it looks like these latest incidents (reported and unreported) have targeted women. Not cool.
BTW, it looks like these latest incidents (reported and unreported) have targeted women. Not cool.
- 8,155
It very well could be. In my own experience in TGS, I didn't realize the extent of crime until joining the neighborhood listserv. There seem to periods of uptick (sometimes attributable to what turned out to be a single perp or 2) and then periods of relative calm. Nothing to where I feel unsafe, but I'm just more aware.dogtowndan wrote:I can only answer based upon my own experiences - based on a general sharing of info around the neighborhood, there is definitely a sense of a more aggressive expansion of out-and-out crime than previous years. And it's not as though I suddenly started talking to people in the neighborhood or suddenly transformed into a social butterfly.moorlander wrote:Is this really happening more often or are we just hearing about it more - with internet boards, news on our smart phones, etc.
I'm not trying to downplay the violence. It just makes me wonder, ya know?
(please don't take this as alarmist or reactionary - just reporting what I hear)
- 11K
^ same in FPSE - for better or worse, those not on the listserve were blissfully unaware of nearly all serious crimes, while those paying close attention maybe felt less safe.
Really? Lead? Come on. That's a joke right? If lead is such a big factor, then why do we not have any problems in south city? Why don't you see middle class people shooting each other? Why is it that teens and 20 somethings are still shooting each other in poor areas like North City when they were born after 1978? Lead is not a major cause at all. Completely illogical argument.roger wyoming II wrote:
The economist/blogger Kevin Drum recently gained a lot of media attention with his attribution to the national drop in crime to lower lead levels.
I think there is much to this and it also seems that the Saint Louis story fits rather well into this thesis. Remember, there were 2 signficant actions with respect to lead. One is the complete elimination of leaded gasoline and the second is the harder to tackle problem of eliminating lead paint from residences. Saint Louis has seen a drop in crime rates since the late 60s. But we also have one of the most lead-contaminated housing stock in the country, particularly in North Saint Louis. Fortunately, some more aggressive efforts to eliminate lead were conducted in recent years although this has seen reduced activity with lower fed funding since 2009(thanks Kit Bond for past fed funding!). Anyway, the expectation would be that as fewer kids in Saint Louis are exposed to lead paint in homes, the lower the crime rate will continue to dip. Let's hope!
Certainly lead levels wouldn't be the only reason for the national trend, but it very well could be a major one.
- 11K
^ at least read this before dismissing the idea: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/ ... k-gasoline
To address your north/south, black/white question: black children/youth have greater exposure to lead from peeling paint in their home, contaminated soil, etc. Clearly lead exposure isn't the whole answer, but it can't be dismissed.
To address your north/south, black/white question: black children/youth have greater exposure to lead from peeling paint in their home, contaminated soil, etc. Clearly lead exposure isn't the whole answer, but it can't be dismissed.
- 1,642
And, if you have to choose, how about more cops and less people at City Hall double-checking dishwasher installations and issuing denials for neon signs?!?!