goat314 wrote:roger wyoming II wrote:goat314 wrote: I hate to keep saying this, but downtown will likely not see much new construction until most if not all of the remaining buildings are rehabilitated. Then we will probably have a new construction boom that will put a lot of cities to shame.
I don't really agree with this. If developers believe there is enough demand to move forward, new towers will arise... simple as that.
In fact, there may be an incentive to move faster than slower if there is a believe that a rehabbed Jefferson Arms and Butler Bros. buildings etc. and other towers in the Central Corridor would bring competitive units onto the market.
The other thing about the BPV and Drury properties is that they have terrific locations.... one associated with a premier sports brand that has multi-millionaires expressing interest in second homes and the other at the foot of the Wash U scene and Arch.
I actually don't think Jefferson Arms and Butler Bros will be competitive (price wise) to new construction. There is very little new construction coming online that would be affordable to a recent college grad, without having a roommate. Everything seems to be geared more towards luxury. I've said it before on this forum, plenty of young people (with degrees) want to move to downtown or midtown but many of them are priced out. If you just graduated from college making $30,000/yr, why would you pay $1000 for a one bedroom apartment, when you can get an apartment just as nice for $600 in the county. I'm sorry, the city just doesn't have the desirability of New York, San Francisco, Chicago etc, not even Denver or Seattle yet. A lot of these prices are overinflated, I'd hate to see what they will be in 10-20 years.
I've never met anyone making $30,000/year fresh out of college. Unless you
don't go to college and instead get a job and keep it for a long time until you're making decent money, there aren't many 22 year olds who are that rich. Hence why we have so many people in their mid-20's living with their parents and working at Starbucks even though they just spent 4 years on getting a degree - frequently a legit degree, not even a worthless one. Now they're $70,000+ in the can and still have the same job they had in high school.
And then they want to move to an urban setting but can't afford it.
Even in St. Louis.
The wealthiest, happiest 20-somethings I know are the ones who never went to college. They saved up their money, worked the same job for a long time, and have apartments (or in some cases even own houses) here in St. Louis and are living it up. They don't have all those student loans to worry about and, after not going to school full-time for 4 years they have worked thousands of more hours at their job that someone who did attend college. There's a very good reason college attendance rates are dropping so fast (more than 5% lower in 2013 than in 2011). I wouldn't be surprised if in ten years most small and mid-sized colleges started closing. This isn't Ireland where college is free!
That sort of contradicts my hope and desire that more colleges will expand their Downtown presence. SLU just built SLU Law and Webster will expand into the Arcade, which is awesome. Hopefully those colleges will never go under. That would be terrible for St. Louis. If anything, I think we're kind of banking more on college expansions than on corporate ones here! Edward Jones isn't planning to build Downtown anytime soon, but that new Dental School in Lafayette Square will bring a bunch more to the Downtown area in the very near future. Colleges are what will bring people to the neighborhood and I hope Wash-U builds something Downtown before too long as well. Then there will really be school and student tenants for all the proposed construction Downtown such as Drury Tower and BPV!
If BPV could lure a college presence there, it would install a ton of students and staff right in BPV 5 days a week, including when it's not even baseball season, especially if student housing (something actually affordable such as the Arcade...) were included in the deal. Imagine 10 floors of Wash-U and/or another college campus with a few more floors of student housing on top!