2020 Census

MarkHaversham · PostSep 02, 2015#2512015-09-02T21:12+00:00

Just for fun, I tried to roughly adjust the top immigrant cities for distance and MSA population. I applied proportions of population over the inverse square of distance, and arbitrarily indexed KC as "1.00". The main takeaway is that Seattle is a massive outlier; for example it's a third the population and over twice the distance compared to Washington DC, but only half the immigration (I'd expect 1/12th, in a vacuum). I think the difference between KC and Springfield/Columbia is also kind of interesting.

MSA Inv. Square Index
Chicago 0.42
Kansas City 1.00
Springfield, MO 1.66
Columbia, MO 1.41
Dallas 0.87
Washington, DC 0.83
Atlanta 0.47
Milwaukee 0.58
Jefferson City 0.78
Seattle 8.03

Somebody else can repeat the exercise for the other direction, I'm too lazy.

Edit: Also, the Chicago migration is less impressive by this index than the article headline implies.

STLEnginerd · PostSep 02, 2015#2522015-09-02T21:18+00:00

^slow clap

very clever, definitely an interesting way to look at these numbers.

MarkHaversham · PostSep 02, 2015#2532015-09-02T21:39+00:00

STLEnginerd wrote:^slow clap

very clever, definitely an interesting way to look at these numbers.

Thanks. I guess I'm not surprised "STLEnginerd" would appreciate it.

Maybe someday, somebody will have the time and ready data to expand this sort of benchmarking. I'm curious if there are other Seattle-like outliers outside of the top 10.

For the record, the formula I used was population / (distance^2) * 85000 (arbitrary constant), in case anyone is inclined to expand on it. I couldn't figure out how to legibly post my whole table.

roger wyoming II · PostSep 02, 2015#2542015-09-02T22:13+00:00

Springfield metro includes Branson I believe so I'm pretty sure that retirements have something to do with that outflow.

What I'm not sure about is how college students are calculated in all of this. Anyone know how the Census deals with this group?

PostSep 18, 2015#2552015-09-18T16:10+00:00

The 2014 American Community Survey data is out... we already knew there was an estimated drop of approx. 1,000 people in the City last year, but the racial change from the survey is interesting. Whites had been growing but the survey showed a drop of about 1,000 whites last year; black population continued to slide with an estimated loss of around 4,000. Asian pop. growth was slight.

But self-classification of other categories of "some other race" grew a lot and "2 or more races" also grew, so only a slight total population loss. Of course, these are only estimates based on the Survey and have margin of errors.

Since 2010, the Survey reveals substantial black flight to the County as well as White flight from the County. More whites living in the City as well as a modest amount of more Asians but more growth in the County's Asian population.

onecity · PostSep 18, 2015#2562015-09-18T21:55+00:00

Using the census data on Wikipedia, as of 2014, based on a pop of 317,419:

white pop (46.6%): 147,917
black pop: (47.5%): 150,774

Are you saying the current numbers are:

white pop: 146,9xx
black pop: 146,7xx

?

If so, that's kind of significant, and good for the region if you subscribe to the theory that the more similar the city and county are demographically, the greater are the chances of regional cooperation.

roger wyoming II · PostSep 18, 2015#2572015-09-18T22:46+00:00

^ It took me awhile to find the right tables for the data but off the top of my head blacks still were slightly greater percentage than whites but it continued to close.... I'll try to pull them up again.

But remember, this is just American Community Survey data (which is based on surveys of all things!) and has a +/- margin... I assume the wiki data above is from '13 ACS unless someone put the new figures in already.

onecity · PostSep 18, 2015#2582015-09-18T22:55+00:00

^ Do you have links to the tables? I searched the ACS website and it doesn't do much to direct you to specific information.

roger wyoming II · PostSep 18, 2015#2592015-09-18T23:04+00:00

46% white, 46.9% white, 3% Asian for the 2014 survey.

The only table I have a link to right now is this one:
http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tabl ... Type=table

I was looking at a more detailed one earlier in the day (and tweeted about the data) but unfortunately I can't find it right now.

PostSep 18, 2015#2602015-09-18T23:09+00:00

This is not good:
http://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/us- ... immigrants

onecity · PostSep 18, 2015#2612015-09-18T23:26+00:00

Missouri is such a worthless state.

roger wyoming II · PostSep 19, 2015#2622015-09-19T02:12+00:00

^ I didn't even think it was possible for a major metro, let alone an entire state, to actually lose foreign born population in this era. Hopefully there is something funky with the survey results that turn out to be off.

Presbyterian · PostSep 19, 2015#2632015-09-19T17:28+00:00

St. Louis pulled in tens of thousands of Bosnian immigrants in the 1990s through direct resettlement to St. Louis, migration from other resettlement cities and sponsoring of relatives from Bosnia.

Nothing on that scale has happened since, and so the numbers of foreign born today are much lower.

There certainly are a lot of refugees who would love to be here.

roger wyoming II · PostSep 19, 2015#2642015-09-19T18:15+00:00

^ I don't quite follow why that would mean fewer foreign born today. Unless they've either passed or migrated out of the region they are still very much alive and here.

dredger · PostSep 19, 2015#2652015-09-19T21:08+00:00

I really have a tough time buying the argument that it is cheaper for a new family to live in St. Charles county than say the city or Kirkwood. Yes, you can go find an expensive home in Ladue if you really want too. but really, do others agree with the argument presented that St. Charles county population increase is related to cost of living within the metro region? Sorry, but after residing in the San Fran Bay area for a few years now as well as still owning my home in Shrewsbury for my mother in law sake and this article seems laughable to me

http://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/st- ... 000-people

I will buy the perception of safety and schools even though you can find safe neighborhoods pretty much anywhere and schools, as a parent myself, is just as much what happens outside of the school in my opinion. Not to mention the multitude of school choices that urban areas are offer more so then exburbs.

roger wyoming II · PostSep 20, 2015#2662015-09-20T02:15+00:00

I was never really sure how college students should be counted in the census.... here is a pretty good look at it:

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/03/ ... -but-where

Basically if you're living away from home more than staying there you should count the out-of-home address as the domicile. And the 2010 Census changed the questions around a bit to try to get a better count as it recognizes a lot just count the parents address. I wonder how much undercounting there has been in the past here and if there could be a significant boost if there was some kind of education campaign on local campuses at census time. also with more attractive housing options (both on and off campus) at SLU, there will be more students living in the city in 2020 than 2010 even if there aren't a lot more overall students.

PostOct 10, 2015#2672015-10-10T15:06+00:00

Presbyterian wrote:The school numbers continue to suggest slight population growth. An article in today's Post-Dispatch documented an increase in total enrollment since 2008.

Unfortunately SLPS took a big hit with enrollment this year with a drop of 1,500 students. Maybe charter and private picked up some, but this is pretty alarming.

Presbyterian · PostOct 10, 2015#2682015-10-10T22:55+00:00

I saw that. Looks like most of that drop is moves to North County. If so, it could mean another population loss based on a decrease in children.

roger wyoming II · PostOct 11, 2015#2692015-10-11T15:07+00:00

^ makes sense that the outflow would be going to NoCo but did you see a specific date reference to that happening? I'd love to see that.

quincunx · PostOct 11, 2015#2702015-10-11T16:21+00:00

Think it has anything to do with the option to transfer in Normandy and Riverview Gardens?

Presbyterian · PostOct 12, 2015#2712015-10-12T01:01+00:00

According to the Post-Dispath article, SLPS records show that 33% of those who left switched to suburban or County schools, and 11% moved to charter schools. And they don't know what happened to 39% of them.

http://m.stltoday.com/news/local/educat ... tE.twitter

Aesir · PostOct 12, 2015#2722015-10-12T05:28+00:00

1,500, that's a whole high school less. Wheeeew.

Can't blame them. I was sent to SLPS. I'll probably live in the city when I have kids, but no way on God's green earth will I send them there to repeat that experience.

MarkHaversham · PostOct 12, 2015#2732015-10-12T13:31+00:00

dredger wrote:I really have a tough time buying the argument that it is cheaper for a new family to live in St. Charles county than say the city or Kirkwood. Yes, you can go find an expensive home in Ladue if you really want too. but really, do others agree with the argument presented that St. Charles county population increase is related to cost of living within the metro region? Sorry, but after residing in the San Fran Bay area for a few years now as well as still owning my home in Shrewsbury for my mother in law sake and this article seems laughable to me

http://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/st- ... 000-people

I will buy the perception of safety and schools even though you can find safe neighborhoods pretty much anywhere and schools, as a parent myself, is just as much what happens outside of the school in my opinion. Not to mention the multitude of school choices that urban areas are offer more so then exburbs.

Well, its certainly been my experience that outer St. Charles has houses that are much cheaper than they would be in Kirkwood or the city. Have you had a different experience?

onecity · PostOct 12, 2015#2742015-10-12T15:14+00:00

Can't blame them. I was sent to SLPS. I'll probably live in the city when I have kids, but no way on God's green earth will I send them there to repeat that experience.

Aesir - curious what your experience was. Is there a thread for former SLPS students to talk about what was good/bad about it?

roger wyoming II · PostJan 31, 2016#2752016-01-31T03:28+00:00

I lifted this comment by urban_dilettante from another thread over here:

» Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:21 pm
^ there may be a few more. seems like Shaw, Tower Grove South and Southampton are all growing, for example. any others?

As a resident who arrived to TGS last decade, I was shocked to see it had a 10% drop last census; so while I don't think it will do that again this decade I wouldn't be surprised to see a small drop. Likewise, Shaw dropped almost 20% last decade, but again I suspect we won't see anywhere near that loss again. And the economic demographics of a number of South City neighborhoods likely will go up even if population goes somewhat down.

2020 Census

Choose Display Mode