urbanSTL

Wasn't alley recycling mostly going to garbage because people were throwing unrecyclables in the alley bins?

I don't like that it's gone but I've noticed the fire station recycling bins where I take mine are well used with actual recyclable materials.

I'm not sure what Jones was doing to preserve our architectural heritage and housing stock that Spencer is not.

Bringing it back to the census challenging the estimates is something I think our mayor should be more proactive with. .

I brought this up to Mayor Jones in 2024 and Spencer when she was running. Both seemed familiar with how that was successfully done in Detroit but neither took any concrete steps to do so here from what I have seen.

Even with the tornado I think we are being undercounted.

jtlq53 wrote: ↑

7:08 PM - Mar 27

What are some of the things you all would (realistically) like to see the mayor do within their power/resources? I'm not caping for Cara. Just interested in the particulars -- and saying holding off on the Green Line until 2029 doesn't count, that's low hanging fruit 

The Mayor's power and resources to affect real change are comically limited by the state government. There's almost nothing significant any Mayor can do themselves, so anyone claiming a second Jones administration would have been significantly more effective is full of sh*t (and I voted for her, twice).

TLDR: Spencer has so far been a disappointment, but the structural and political forces endemic to the City and State ensure that every Mayor will be a disappointment. Only marginal differences in mediocrity are even possible.

The Mayor has no authority over the school district, which is a perpetual den of venality and incompetence incapable of making medium/long-term decisions or even successfully executing short-term initiatives, like hiring a capable and scandal-free superintendent.

The Mayor has no authority over tax policy, other than a limited toolbox of tax-based incentive programs that require approval from some combination of MO, BOA, BEA, Individual alders, SLDC, LRA, and/or voters themselves. Even the most charismatic mayor with the most sure-fire tax policy reform program will run into the brick wall of Jeff City junior-nazi shitheads who just want to stick it to their perceived urban enemies.

The Mayor's ability to hire and fire city department leaders is also limited. As DB and others on here have noted (and forgive me for not recalling offhand the specifics), the mayor controls some departments  directly while others have commissions or are shared with the City's county offices, or otherwise have protections for senior employees that shield incompetent legacy hires from any accountability. 

Add a tornado (and soon a global depression) to the mix and you can bet on accelerated failure. (And I promise you the "hundred year tornado" is about to become a regular feature of life in the Midwest, along with alternating periods of droughts and floods,).

Baltimore Jack wrote:Wasn't alley recycling mostly going to garbage because people were throwing unrecyclables in the alley bins?

I don't like that it's gone but I've noticed the fire station recycling bins where I take mine are well used with actual recyclable materials.

I'm not sure what Jones was doing to preserve our architectural heritage and housing stock that Spencer is not.

Bringing it back to the census challenging the estimates is something I think our mayor should be more proactive with. .

I brought this up to Mayor Jones in 2024 and Spencer when she was running. Both seemed familiar with how that was successfully done in Detroit but neither took any concrete steps to do so here from what I have seen.

Even with the tornado I think we are being undercounted.

St. Louis "successfully" challenged back in the mid-2000s just to reveal that they were completely wrong in 2010. Was part of the fake renaissance.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

^They all do it and many believe it. Mild narcissism and perpetual optimism are necessary personality traits for any would-be elected official

I have no idea why news sources put so much interest into the year to year census - the numbers are always proven wrong in the decennial census which is the only one that matters for resources  

Private for-profit media needs clicks and views to sell ads to advertisers. Bad news and news thar makes the city look bad get more clicks from the overwhelmingly suburban audience.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

I have a sneaking suspicion that if a census estimate showed we gained population it would be met with skepticism by our local media. I'd love to have the chance to be proven wrong though

Let’s get a census estimate that bumps our population before worrying about the reaction if we do. I keep thinking we’ve bottomed out considering our economy, jobs, infrastructure…but it just keeps going down


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

2:28 AM - Mar 27

Probably because the county methodically keeps under counting the city, probably by 10,000 since 2020.

Having watched the same pattern in many other cities, I tend to agree that there tends to be a likely population undercount in all cities with accelerating household growth.  We have to remember that the population estimates and and ACS estimates are produced by different divisions of the Census Bureau using very different methodologies and mashed together each year in the topline ACS reports.   I watch the housing situation in Baltimore closely and the gains in the household totals (and vacancy reductions) produced by the ACS appear to be mostly real.  That makes me suspect that the population estimates are on the low side.  The same pattern appears in St. Louis and several other cities.

St. Louis is still rapidly losing residents. 'Sleepwalking through demographic disaster'

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/met ... -top-story

Welp, there's Ness again. Media can't stay away from him.

Not sure we can continue to use housing count gains for positive spin, as they are also now dropping:

Housing figures for counties across the country also were released Thursday as part of the census data, and St. Louis led the nation there, too. While it declined by just 202 housing units from 2024 and 2025, most places in the country managed to add housing, making the Gateway City an outlier.

The decline in the number of St. Louis housing units likely was due, in part, to the tornado, Sandoval said.

Transparently, many times over my life as a city resident (27 years), I've thought "OK, this has to be the bottom on people leaving, right?" ....still no bottom. woof.

Due, in part, to the tornado? I think it's almost certainly entirely the tornado. All the reporting I've seen suggests the tornado wrecked a whale of a  lot more than 202 units, and most still haven't been repaired, so if we're only down 202 then the truth is the number is actually going up, and by a lot, if not for the tornado. Yeesh.

symphonicpoet wrote: ↑

10:28 PM - 1 day ago

Due, in part, to the tornado? I think it's almost certainly entirely the tornado. All the reporting I've seen suggests the tornado wrecked a whale of a  lot more than 202 units, and most still haven't been repaired, so if we're only down 202 then the truth is the number is actually going up, and by a lot, if not for the tornado. Yeesh.

hope that's true. This isn't a knock on the reporter, as I'm not sure I'd have done a better job, but I had a hard time understanding when the story was speaking to data that was MSA-wide or city-proper. 

soulardx wrote:

symphonicpoet wrote: ↑

10:28 PM - 1 day ago

Due, in part, to the tornado? I think it's almost certainly entirely the tornado. All the reporting I've seen suggests the tornado wrecked a whale of a  lot more than 202 units, and most still haven't been repaired, so if we're only down 202 then the truth is the number is actually going up, and by a lot, if not for the tornado. Yeesh.

hope that's true. This isn't a knock on the reporter, as I'm not sure I'd have done a better job, but I had a hard time understanding when the story was speaking to data that was MSA-wide or city-proper. 

Well this is a knock on the reporter because the fact an EF3 tornado tore through the city, displacing thousands of people and destroying thousands of buildings, is actually extremely necessary context as to why the city dropped by 202 households. Failing to provide that context is indicative that this person is bad at their job or is intentionally spinning a narrative.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

StlAlex wrote: ↑

11:09 PM - 1 day ago

soulardx wrote:

symphonicpoet wrote: ↑

10:28 PM - 1 day ago

Due, in part, to the tornado? I think it's almost certainly entirely the tornado. All the reporting I've seen suggests the tornado wrecked a whale of a  lot more than 202 units, and most still haven't been repaired, so if we're only down 202 then the truth is the number is actually going up, and by a lot, if not for the tornado. Yeesh.

hope that's true. This isn't a knock on the reporter, as I'm not sure I'd have done a better job, but I had a hard time understanding when the story was speaking to data that was MSA-wide or city-proper. 

Well this is a knock on the reporter because the fact an EF3 tornado tore through the city, displacing thousands of people and destroying thousands of buildings, is actually extremely necessary context as to why the city dropped by 202 households. Failing to provide that context is indicative that this person is bad at their job or is intentionally spinning a narrative.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

I was being charitable....but, yeah, probably. 

My comment on MSA data vs City data was story wide, not specific to the tornado data.

soulardx wrote:

StlAlex wrote: ↑

11:09 PM - 1 day ago

soulardx wrote: hope that's true. This isn't a knock on the reporter, as I'm not sure I'd have done a better job, but I had a hard time understanding when the story was speaking to data that was MSA-wide or city-proper. 

Well this is a knock on the reporter because the fact an EF3 tornado tore through the city, displacing thousands of people and destroying thousands of buildings, is actually extremely necessary context as to why the city dropped by 202 households. Failing to provide that context is indicative that this person is bad at their job or is intentionally spinning a narrative.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

I was being charitable....but, yeah, probably. 

My comment on MSA data vs City data was story wide, not specific to the tornado data.

The story opens with "city of St. Louis" so I would assume the data is city, not MSA.

Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

It certainly doesn't help the St. Louis narrative that the city's population estimates get published twice, once with the county estimates and again with the city estimates. 

Local media and Ness get to treat both releases as breaking "city is dying!" news. Most people probably see these stories a few months apart and don't even realize its just the same number being reported twice.

MOsloth22 wrote: ↑

2:05 PM - 1 day ago

It certainly doesn't help the St. Louis narrative that the city's population estimates get published twice, once with the county estimates and again with the city estimates. 

Local media and Ness get to treat both releases as breaking "city is dying!" news. Most people probably see these stories a few months apart and don't even realize its just the same number being reported twice.

Yep.

I believe this time though, the data was more parsed with specific numbers by county.

I'm also shocked to just do the math around that city number.  down 23K over 5 years means that 13 people decided to move out of the city daily for like 1800 straight days. I want to be skeptical yet not sure I can be.

And in the same time frame the city added 5,000
Housing units and number of vacant units went down. We’re in the 290s still

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

2:35 PM - 1 day ago

And in the same time frame the city added 5,000
Housing units and number of vacant units went down.   We’re in the 290s still

Denis, I largely respect your data analysis and you've beaten this housing units drum for years.... yet it's never gained steam anywhere other than here and when you tweet about it (and then RT yourself).

Why?

I'm not saying you are wrong and want to believe you are correct but if it's so clear to you, why no one else?

Ness sees it too. Problem is that the city doesn’t see it as a priority

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

3:30 PM - 1 day ago

Ness sees it too.  Problem is that the city doesn’t see it as a priority

and why don't you think the city views this as a priority?

vibes and narratives matter. I think a PR victory from challenging the census #'s would be meaningful and worthwhile. (Somehow combining our officially reported crimes states would also be a PR win.).

Does this change the lived-experience facts on the ground? No. (F#ck, just 100% delegate the challenge to Ness. I'm sure he'd do it gratis and yammer about his win constantly in the press....lol)

Does it lead to better vibes/PR which could pay out in less people leaving/more coming? Yes.

Its probably an exercise that SLU + Wash U research students could tackle in a summer with a private donor. It is a lift but not impossible if the City's legal department can get onboard.