It’s pretty clear that people (on this board) decided that 300K was some magic #. It’s not. Also we know the census #s shouldn’t be trusted
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We already knew St. Louis lost population but today other cities (that are not counties) got released, and it appears that we are the anomaly. After a lot of major cities outside of Texas, NC and Florida have taken dips in population since COVID, cities all over the place are rebounding with population gains. Even cities like Chicago and Columbus that have shown some of the poorest job growth jumped in numbers. We are unfortunately on a short list this time of cities that lost population
City pop or metro?delmar2debaliviere2downtown wrote: ↑May 15, 2025We already knew St. Louis lost population but today other cities (that are not counties) got released, and it appears that we are the anomaly. After a lot of major cities outside of Texas, NC and Florida took dips in population since COVID, cities all over the place are rebounding with population gains. Even cities like Chicago and Columbus that have shown some of the poorest job growth jumped in numbers. We are unfortunately on a short list this time of cities that lost population
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Census est. for cities population comes out today, the number for STL
City is the same as few months ago when the counties est. came out (since STL city is a county too) but if the city methodology was applied to STL city, it would show 4000-5000 more people than county formula
City is the same as few months ago when the counties est. came out (since STL city is a county too) but if the city methodology was applied to STL city, it would show 4000-5000 more people than county formula
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The only headlines I've seen regarding new census estimates are speculation that Chicago could be nudged out of 3rd place by Houston in coming years.
Oh. And also that Jacksonville and Fort Worth both crossed over the 1 million mark.
That Ft. Worth has joined that club is just mind boggling.
That Ft. Worth has joined that club is just mind boggling.
It helps that Houston is 665 sq mi.Baltimore Jack wrote: ↑May 16, 2025The only headlines I've seen regarding new census estimates are speculation that Chicago could be nudged out of 3rd place by Houston in coming years.
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Oh sure. Even Los Angeles--the poster child of autocentric sprawl-- feels dense compared to the 80% of Houston that's outside the inner belt.
Even Cleveland gained city population according to the latest census estimates, meaning that St. Louis is the only 1 million+ metro in the midwest that saw a continued decline in city population. Not good. The state of Missouri isn't helping.
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Isn't there some methodology concerns in the estimates that work against St. Louis favor? Mainly relates to its political status as independent city and demolition of residences are factored in, even if they have been vacant for many years or even decades? Since isn't the number of households higher?
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^ yes, if you factor that is, the city added 1000-1200 people
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I understand how that methodology can lead to undercounting the absolute population number. I’m not sure I am tracking with why that would lead to an undercounting of the population change. Wouldn’t that methodology have the same effect in the old and new number?dbInSouthCity wrote:^ yes, if you factor that is, the city added 1000-1200 people
The state is actively working against it's metropolitan regions for political reasons. They know a healthy, growing St. Louis or Kansas City changes the politics of the state drastically in 10-20 years. We're already seeing it in states like North Carolina, Georgia, etc. Virginia used to be a conservative state and it's no longer even competitive on the national level. Could you imagine if St. Louis was growing like Nashville or Charlotte? That would flip the state.
If you want to stabilize population, fix SLPS and build more single family housing. That doesn’t mean writing more money for a school district that is rapidly losing students. It means closing underperforming schools so that the full classrooms are receiving the highest quality resources. There shouldn’t be a classroom with fewer than 20 students.
The transportation debacle would be enough to take me (and my hypothetical children) out of the city.
The transportation debacle would be enough to take me (and my hypothetical children) out of the city.
There could me more households and still fewer people, which makes total sense given steady declines in family formation and childbirth, i.e., single and DINK households replacing multi-child family households.imperialmog wrote: ↑May 16, 2025Isn't there some methodology concerns in the estimates that work against St. Louis favor? Mainly relates to its political status as independent city and demolition of residences are factored in, even if they have been vacant for many years or even decades? Since isn't the number of households higher?
We need to accept that the City has not hit rock-bottom in terms of population, and that the State will continue acting against us (and the feds will be neutral at-best) barring some unforeseen rupture in the two-party system.
You can't "fix" slps. SLPS is a result of bigger societal factors.addxb2 wrote: ↑May 16, 2025If you want to stabilize population, fix SLPS and build more single family housing. That doesn’t mean writing more money for a school district that is rapidly losing students. It means closing underperforming schools so that the full classrooms are receiving the highest quality resources. There shouldn’t be a classroom with fewer than 20 students.
The transportation debacle would be enough to take me (and my hypothetical children) out of the city.
Yea most of SLPS' problems aren't actually SLPS' fault. They're largely the reality that 85% of their students are impoverished and some 20% are homeless. There's very little SLPS or even the city can do about this.goat314 wrote: ↑May 16, 2025You can't "fix" slps. SLPS is a result of bigger societal factors.addxb2 wrote: ↑May 16, 2025If you want to stabilize population, fix SLPS and build more single family housing. That doesn’t mean writing more money for a school district that is rapidly losing students. It means closing underperforming schools so that the full classrooms are receiving the highest quality resources. There shouldn’t be a classroom with fewer than 20 students.
The transportation debacle would be enough to take me (and my hypothetical children) out of the city.
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SLPS has excellent case studies in its district that shows it can provide a high quality education in a controlled environment- see Metro HS, McKinley HS
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My understanding is that the Census Bureau utilizes changes in housing units as a key component of Sub-County (cities, villages, etc.) population estimates but not for County and County equivalents like STL CIty, where Natural Change (Births - Deaths) + Migration (Domestic and International) is utilized. IRS, Medicare and Social Security data, etc. are key sources for migration.imperialmog wrote: ↑May 16, 2025Isn't there some methodology concerns in the estimates that work against St. Louis favor? Mainly relates to its political status as independent city and demolition of residences are factored in, even if they have been vacant for many years or even decades? Since isn't the number of households higher?
We can challenge our population estimate, but I don't think demolitions and other changes in housing unit estimates affect population estimates here like they do in Detroit, e.g., which successfully challenged population on that basis. (Looking at past challenges, I see Cook County was accepted but that's the only County I see, fwiw.)
County Housing Unit Estimates (July 1, 2024) were released Thursday; reflects construction permits issued in 2023 (as it assumes a lag between issuance and completion). STL City was basically static (slight drop of about 100 units) after seeing an increase during the building boom the prior few years. We could see a more significant drop for next year due to yesterday's devastation.
As mentioned in my post above, these housing unit changes shouldn't impact our city population estimates (at least to the same extent as they would if we were a just a city) due to differences in Census methodology.
As mentioned in my post above, these housing unit changes shouldn't impact our city population estimates (at least to the same extent as they would if we were a just a city) due to differences in Census methodology.
StlToday - St. Louis has lost residents for decades. The tornado could nudge more to leave.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/gov ... 2fde9.htmlST. LOUIS — The sounds of nail guns and roofing hammers echoed through the neighborhood as Lisa Mannery surveyed the impassible pile of branches stacked in her backyard. An HVAC unit hung precariously from the roof of the still-closed Save A Lot on Natural Bridge Avenue behind her house.
Her roof, like many others nearby, was covered by a blue tarp, though she’s able to stay in her home as she sorts through insurance and contractors.
But many of Mannery’s neighbors are living elsewhere while their homes are repaired.
Several doors down, Vickii Grady said she will be staying elsewhere as she awaits fixes to her home. Another resident, David Jackson, said he’s seen more than few U-Haul trucks in the two weeks since a tornado carved a path of destruction through St. Louis, killing five and significantly damaging nearly 2,500 buildings.
The brunt of the storm fell on north St. Louis, already weighed down with a long decline in population and the resulting vacancy and associated problems. But the block of San Francisco Avenue near Natural Bridge and Newstead avenues where Mannery lives was mostly intact, and she is confident that her neighbors will rebuild and return to what she said is a tight-knit community.
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^or it could lead to reinvestment and population increase in those neighborhoods.
Gaslight Square got Kickstarted after the 1959 tornado.
Gaslight Square got Kickstarted after the 1959 tornado.
StlToday - ‘We are in trouble.’ St. Louis region’s slowing population growth spurs call for action
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/met ... urce=login
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/met ... urce=login