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PostJul 18, 2024#9751

^ no plans yet but LHM is open to anything. They bought it as a strategic purchase. I’ll have some talks with their leadership about ideas

433
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PostJul 24, 2024#9752

pmbender wrote:
Jul 18, 2024
whitherSTL wrote:
Jul 17, 2024
Does the rapid decrease in city population last 40 years have anything to do with it?
Nope! It is per capita.

I know you've historically expressed a lot of concerns about crime and the current city government - I'm also definitely concerned about crime, but I'm very optimistic given these stats. What sort of data would make you feel similarly optimistic?
DB's data and its like might bring comfort to urban development/public policy nerds on an internet forum, but until sh*t like this stops happening, or local media stops reporting it, the vibe that "crime is up," and its effects city population loss, etc., won't go away regardless of what the data says.

977
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PostJul 24, 2024#9753

SB in BH wrote:
pmbender wrote:
Jul 18, 2024
whitherSTL wrote:
Jul 17, 2024
Does the rapid decrease in city population last 40 years have anything to do with it?
Nope! It is per capita.

I know you've historically expressed a lot of concerns about crime and the current city government - I'm also definitely concerned about crime, but I'm very optimistic given these stats. What sort of data would make you feel similarly optimistic?
DB's data and its like might bring comfort to urban development/public policy nerds on an internet forum, but until sh*t like this stops happening, or local media stops reporting it, the vibe that "crime is up," and its effects city population loss, etc., won't go away regardless of what the data says.
Crime isn’t up though. It’s down. That’s an important narrative to carry forward on an Internet forum and more broadly.

At the same time, we can acknowledge we are working off a high base of crime and gun violence is still prevalent and a detractor to city growth. Let’s have some nuance here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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PostJul 24, 2024#9754

Debaliviere91 wrote:
Jul 24, 2024
SB in BH wrote:
pmbender wrote:
Jul 18, 2024
Nope! It is per capita.

I know you've historically expressed a lot of concerns about crime and the current city government - I'm also definitely concerned about crime, but I'm very optimistic given these stats. What sort of data would make you feel similarly optimistic?
DB's data and its like might bring comfort to urban development/public policy nerds on an internet forum, but until sh*t like this stops happening, or local media stops reporting it, the vibe that "crime is up," and its effects city population loss, etc., won't go away regardless of what the data says.
Crime isn’t up though. It’s down. That’s an important narrative to carry forward on an Internet forum and more broadly.

At the same time, we can acknowledge we are working off a high base of crime and gun violence is still prevalent and a detractor to city growth. Let’s have some nuance here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I'm not disputing anything about the crime data, and nuance is appreciated in this kind of discussion (on an internet forum for industry professionals). But narratives based on careful data analysis are worthless for public perception compared to a news report about multiple drive-by shootings on the same block (twice at the same house) in broad daylight in a relatively safe neighborhood with no police resolution. 

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PostJul 24, 2024#9755

SB in BH wrote:
Debaliviere91 wrote:
Jul 24, 2024
SB in BH wrote: DB's data and its like might bring comfort to urban development/public policy nerds on an internet forum, but until sh*t like this stops happening, or local media stops reporting it, the vibe that "crime is up," and its effects city population loss, etc., won't go away regardless of what the data says.
Crime isn’t up though. It’s down. That’s an important narrative to carry forward on an Internet forum and more broadly.

At the same time, we can acknowledge we are working off a high base of crime and gun violence is still prevalent and a detractor to city growth. Let’s have some nuance here.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I'm not disputing anything about the crime data, and nuance is appreciated in this kind of discussion (on an internet forum for industry professionals). But narratives based on careful data analysis are worthless for public perception compared to a news report about multiple drive-by shootings on the same block (twice at the same house) in broad daylight in a relatively safe neighborhood with no police resolution. 
The narrative isn’t based on careful data analysis though. It’s actually super basic. It’s a downward trending line graph. If we tell the story in the right way, it will have an impact on public safety perception in the city.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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709

PostJul 25, 2024#9756

pdm_ad wrote:
Jul 02, 2024
I'm not surprised that people are speculating about what happened but to suggest this was racially motivated is just dumb, as was mentioned.

The family says one person had a gun pointed at the groom the entire time while the 2nd was frisking people for wallets. There were several partiers who came outside when they heard the commotion and the gunman panicked.
Update: Groom has been removed from respirator and is responding to commands. There's a long road ahead. One of the perps returned to the scene recently in broad daylight and was captured on video which has been turned over to the police.

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PostAug 08, 2024#9757

Well, had a bunch of family in town last week (35 people) and my sister and 2 nephews were stuck in between two parties brandishing firearms on kingshighway at Laclede in broad daylight, around 2pm.  Really messed up that driver 2 (lane towards hospital) actually backed up to put my sister's car in between them and the car they were beefing with.  One nephew told me he thought his life was in danger.  My sister really shook up. 

WTAF.  Silver lining is that I will never be asked to host the family again. 

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PostAug 13, 2024#9758

Crime down, more at 10pm news which will be everything but that crime is again down
IMG_2315.jpeg (150.49KiB)
IMG_2314.jpeg (162.43KiB)

741
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741

PostAug 23, 2024#9759

TheWayoftheArch_V2.0 wrote:
Aug 08, 2024
Well, had a bunch of family in town last week (35 people) and my sister and 2 nephews were stuck in between two parties brandishing firearms on kingshighway at Laclede in broad daylight, around 2pm.  Really messed up that driver 2 (lane towards hospital) actually backed up to put my sister's car in between them and the car they were beefing with.  One nephew told me he thought his life was in danger.  My sister really shook up. 

WTAF.  Silver lining is that I will never be asked to host the family again. 
When we were in Cincinnati last year we stepped outside a microbrewery in Over the Rhine just after someone got shot in the leg.

I'd go back to Cincy and OTR in a minute.

I guess mileage varies.

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PostSep 01, 2024#9760

Total Homicides for 3 summer months (June/July/August)

2024: 36
2023: 37
2022: 64
2021: 48
2020: 115 (yes 115)
2019: 66
2018: 49
2017: 71
2016: 61
2015: 66

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44

PostSep 01, 2024#9761

Fantastic trend line!

678
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678

PostSep 03, 2024#9762

Can you determine the statistic for the number of incidents where at least one person was shot, or the total number of shooting victims? Glad to see homicides are still tracking lower.

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PostSep 03, 2024#9763

Tim wrote:
Sep 03, 2024
Can you determine the statistic for the number of incidents where at least one person was shot, or the total number of shooting victims? Glad to see homicides are still tracking lower.
460 shooting victims

954
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954

PostSep 03, 2024#9764

In Oakland and beyond, police called to crime scenes are increasingly looking for more than shell casings and fingerprints. They’re scanning for Teslas parked nearby, hoping their unique outward-facing cameras captured key evidence. They’re even resorting to obtaining warrants to tow the cars to ensure they don’t lose the video.
https://archive.ph/S0mrE

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PostSep 03, 2024#9765

Tim wrote:
Sep 03, 2024
Can you determine the statistic for the number of incidents where at least one person was shot, or the total number of shooting victims? Glad to see homicides are still tracking lower.
In the latest weekly compstat report released today there's been 414 shooting incidents and 474 shooting victims thru 8/25... increases from 2023 of 9% and 6%, respectively. But homicides remain down a bit compared to last year.  107 ytd including a homicide last night versus 111 last year.
https://slmpd.org/stats/

954
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954

PostSep 03, 2024#9766

The Truth About Crime in St. Louis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS4IxDP66xw

709
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709

PostSep 03, 2024#9767

^ Thanks for sharing. 

Perception is reality, get us off those stupid most dangerous lists however possible and our national reputation changes overnight.

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PostSep 03, 2024#9768

Great video thanks for sharing. Still don't think people realize how good of a pickup Robert Tracy was for the PD and controlling both real and perceived corruption.

927

PostSep 03, 2024#9769

pdm_ad wrote:
Sep 03, 2024
^ Thanks for sharing. 

Perception is reality, get us off those stupid most dangerous lists however possible and our national reputation changes overnight.
It comes down to those most dangerous cities lists, especially with the proliferation of social media and the continued increasing hysteria about crime in cities generally. Almost daily, I see a news story, instagram/twitter post or tiktok listing us at or near the top of some dangerous list, accompanied by the most unflattering picture of the city or an AI generated picture.

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PostSep 03, 2024#9770

I just spent a week and a half in Seattle for work and the narrative there about crime is much more dire and full of gloom than it's ever been in over a decade of visiting. It is interesting that it looks like crime is trending in the opposite direction in SEA vs STL.

954
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954

PostSep 03, 2024#9771

crime is trending in the opposite direction in SEA vs STL
Any specific factors as to why? ty

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44

PostSep 04, 2024#9772

Quick data to back this up: https://www.seattle.gov/documents/Depar ... _FINAL.pdf

My best guess is that a ton of tech companies have moved to permanent work from home / flex work, so there are fewer people working in a downtown that was more reliant on tech workers for its growth than St. Louis.

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PostSep 04, 2024#9773

chris fuller wrote:
Sep 03, 2024
The Truth About Crime in St. Louis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS4IxDP66xwUnfortunate
Unfortunately the video is very misleading! It does have some good points on how fear of crime can be overblown but it's wild that it suggests that the large majority of cities combine their crime stats with a larger county or even metro area. It's not the truth!

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PostSep 04, 2024#9774

It's not that cities combine their stats with larger counties; it's that most cities are already IN a larger county.  

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PostSep 04, 2024#9775

^ I'm not sure I follow.  While most cities indeed are part of a larger County, this isn't core to the segment. It's falsely reporting how cities report crime; we aren't unique at all.

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