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PostOct 10, 2023#8101

jshank83 wrote: ↑
Oct 10, 2023
matguy70 wrote: ↑
Oct 10, 2023
Breaking down passenger statistics in comparison market: AUSTIN (to Frankfurt on Lufthansa)

STL to FRA
July 1, 2022 and June 30, 2023 (one year)
65,000 passengers
AVERAGE MONTHLY PAX: 5,416 per month

Three Weekly R/T Flights
a330-300 Lufthansa 255 total passengers


AUS TO FRA
January 2023 – July 2023 Total Pax: 39,125
AVERAGE MONTHLY PAX: 5,589 per month

Three Weekly R/T Flights
787 Dreamliner Lufthansa 294 total passengers 


Looking at these with the statistics available from:
Jan-July '23 from Austin Intl. Airport
and
12 Months total from July '22 to June 30 '23 from STL Intl. Airport

STL is averaging better numbers when considering smaller seat configuration (a-330 vs 787) each flight.

[a330-300= 255 seats  787 Dreamliner= 294 seats   294-255= 39 more seats AUS departures ::  52 weeks at 6 weekly flights(3 RT)  = 312 flights total (both airports) :: 312 X 39 seats = 12,168 more seats on AUS 787]

https://www.austintexas.gov/news/july-2 ... -bergstrom
Austin was also on an A330 until May

Did not realize. Thanks.
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PostOct 10, 2023#8102

Trailing behind Austin.
Maybe that's why we're stuck at 3x.
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PostOct 10, 2023#8103

shadrach wrote: ↑
Oct 10, 2023
Trailing behind Austin.
Maybe that's why we're stuck at 3x.
If you look at just the period (June 22-April 23) when both Austin and St. Louis had 3xweek service on A330 (so roughly same number of seats), Austin had 57,990 (5,272 per month) passengers with a load factor of 80.9%. They had 280 total departures with all but 3 on the A330 during that time.

St. Louis had 58,929 (5,357 per month) passengers with a load factor of 81.9%. STL had 282 departures, all on the A330. Seems like STL was filling more seats on the apple to apples comparison before Austin got more seats and then more frequency.

Also, did Austin go to a Dreamliner? I was seeing them flying an A350 in May/June of this year.
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PostOct 10, 2023#8104

Okay, I was going by Matguy’s numbers which had Austin at +173/mo (not much but…)

Just bewildering, after adjusted apples to apples, that with strong numbers we weren’t bumped to 5x while new service/bumps were added elsewhere.

Maybe LH thinks 3x is the right amount, more lucrative to limit supply than add and see flights drop to 70%. Who knows, I’m not an air travel economist.
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PostOct 10, 2023#8105

Super happy to see the consistent high loads on the LH flights! Will be taking the STL-FRA and then return flights later this month. Just wish that the FRA-STL flight left FRA a little later in the day. We’ll be transferring in FRA from Athens, but it’s a stupid early flight from ATH-FRA. When taking the LH flights last year, we had to utilize United to get back from CDG as LH cancelled the early CDG-FRA flights. Wonder if the timing has anything to do with the inbound numbers being lower?

PostOct 10, 2023#8106

One more comment re: LH flights. Normally we are very happy to fly any version of the A330 as it has the 2x4x2 configuration in economy. I noticed last time that the foot area on the current version of LH’s A330 has that dreaded old-school IFE box which takes up a chunk of space. While in theory I’d be happy to see the new Dreamliner on our flights, I will hate the 3x3x3 configuration. I doubt this would happen, but I’d be happy with a remodeled A330 instead.
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PostOct 10, 2023#8107

flew out of DTW recently  it was nice/ok but the best?
https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/JD-Power-airport-satisfaction-2023
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PostOct 10, 2023#8108

Haven’t been to DTW in a while but I like Dallas’ a lot, very spacious
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PostOct 10, 2023#8109

hebeters wrote: ↑
Oct 10, 2023
flew out of DTW recently  it was nice/ok but the best?
https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/JD-Power-airport-satisfaction-2023
We are basically going to have what DTW has so I hope people like it. I also haven’t been I a bit but I am a fan.
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PostOct 11, 2023#8110

shadrach wrote: ↑
Oct 10, 2023
Okay, I was going by Matguy’s numbers which had Austin at +173/mo (not much but…)

Just bewildering, after adjusted apples to apples,  that with strong numbers we weren’t bumped to 5x while new service/bumps were added elsewhere.

Maybe LH thinks 3x is the right amount, more lucrative to limit supply than add and see flights drop to 70%. Who knows, I’m not an air travel economist.
I agree, from a load factor perspective the route has filled seats on par with other routes that got bumps. Not sure what is keeping it from going to 5x. My concern is that with other bumps next summer, STL-FRA will be the only US route for Lufthansa that is only at 3x and if our current numbers haven't convinced them to move to 5x, I'm not sure what else would. I'd be a little surprised if the demand was not there based on the 3x numbers being so high.

There are more factors to determining frequency than just performance, but unfortunately there is not a lot of other public data. Would be interesting to seeing how comprehensive demand to Europe from the different markets vary or if the share of passengers on a route are more German passengers that are likely to be more of Lufthansa's frequent fliers or any numbers for average fares for the routes. 
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PostOct 11, 2023#8111

mtl_stl wrote: ↑
Oct 11, 2023
shadrach wrote: ↑
Oct 10, 2023
Okay, I was going by Matguy’s numbers which had Austin at +173/mo (not much but…)

Just bewildering, after adjusted apples to apples,  that with strong numbers we weren’t bumped to 5x while new service/bumps were added elsewhere.

Maybe LH thinks 3x is the right amount, more lucrative to limit supply than add and see flights drop to 70%. Who knows, I’m not an air travel economist.
I agree, from a load factor perspective the route has filled seats on par with other routes that got bumps. Not sure what is keeping it from going to 5x. My concern is that with other bumps next summer, STL-FRA will be the only US route for Lufthansa that is only at 3x and if our current numbers haven't convinced them to move to 5x, I'm not sure what else would. I'd be a little surprised if the demand was not there based on the 3x numbers being so high.

There are more factors to determining frequency than just performance, but unfortunately there is not a lot of other public data. Would be interesting to seeing how comprehensive demand to Europe from the different markets vary or if the share of passengers on a route are more German passengers that are likely to be more of Lufthansa's frequent fliers or any numbers for average fares for the routes. 
Is there a way to determine how many travelers are flying international from STL, particularly on the other four days? If LH has soaked up most of that market 3x/week, they may not think there is enough demand.
Anecdotally, I booked my next trip to Europe (Dublin) and passed on Lufthansa.  Price was competitive but I'll be traveling with people under 10 and over 70 y/o.   I've taken the LH before, but the return flight from Dublin leaving before dawn to get to Frankfurt and catch the 10:00 flight to STL seemed like too much for that crowd.  Looking a gift horse in the mouth, I guess, but comfort was a priority this time.
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PostOct 11, 2023#8112

i may be misremembering but i think there is about 2000-2500 people traveling to Europe from stl each week,  LH can only take 750 or so.  Since this flight was added my mom has increased her frequency of traveling to Europe tho, in December it will be her 3rd trip of the year to Austria to see her brother and sister 
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PostOct 11, 2023#8113

Been across the Atlantic twice this year and was unable to use our LH service because the 3x weekly didn't sync up with the schedule.  5x would get me into the fold on a few trips a year! 
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PostOct 11, 2023#8114

A few more details on baggage claim.

2 year build is to be all the way complete new and renovation. Sounds like the building and new carousel will be completed sooner, then they would redo the current ones.
Southwest projected be in T2 until end of 2031.

Also mentioned if not for the privatization effort and covid it would have been completed 4 years ago.
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PostOct 11, 2023#8115

Appreciate the updates as always, jshank. Do they have renderings? I could have sworn I saw that someone had posted but I looked back at the last couple of pages and couldn't find.
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PostOct 12, 2023#8116

pdm_ad wrote: ↑
Oct 11, 2023
Appreciate the updates as always, jshank. Do they have renderings? I could have sworn I saw that someone had posted but I looked back at the last couple of pages and couldn't find.
There is a floor plan but no renderings besides the ones from 2018ish.
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PostOct 12, 2023#8117

A few more notes on Terminal 2... Southwest will be the last to move into the new terminal. Terminal 2 expansion more into D is likely after the new baggage expansion. The D expansion will likely be met with the A gates relocation to D concourse. It looks like they will need to renovate and open most of D to relocate A gates and airlines and fulfill Southwest expansion gates to the west. Southwest can no longer maintain the international / custom gates by itself. With Lufthansa (most likely headed to 5 days eventually), Southwest international, Frontier International, new international service and charter international flights... the custom gates will be tied up now more often.

2030 sounds like a long way away.. yet it is only 6 years.

PostOct 12, 2023#8118

Crazy how I posted that above and here it is on the news tonight...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox2now.co ... affic/amp/

Good read.  Readers Digest version:

1) Southwest is surging at STL
2) STL is a Southwest "hub" with now over 35% connecting traffic (airports are essentially considered hubs for an airline with 25% connections).
3) Southwest is running out of room and will need more gates and the new baggage claim build out will help.  
4) through March 2024, Southwest will have an additional growth of 7% more flights through STL International. Southwest wants to continue to grow STL in 2024.
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PostOct 12, 2023#8119

I recently flew STL to MCO last week Wed-Sun.  It was my first time using Spirit Airlines and both flights were full and great.  I recall much fanfare about Spirit flying into STL, and numerous flights, i.e. Orlando, Ft Lauderdale, Phoenix, Vegas, and more.  I think I saw they had more than 1 gate at our airport about a year or two ago as well.  

This time, when booking it looked like they only fly to Vegas and Orlando out of STL.  What happened?  They really REALLY shrank their operations here.  Bummer as I would consider flying them again in the future.
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PostOct 12, 2023#8120

NJB1981 wrote: ↑
Oct 12, 2023
I recently flew STL to MCO last week Wed-Sun.  It was my first time using Spirit Airlines and both flights were full and great.  I recall much fanfare about Spirit flying into STL, and numerous flights, i.e. Orlando, Ft Lauderdale, Phoenix, Vegas, and more.  I think I saw they had more than 1 gate at our airport about a year or two ago as well.  

This time, when booking it looked like they only fly to Vegas and Orlando out of STL.  What happened?  They really REALLY shrank their operations here.  Bummer as I would consider flying them again in the future.
Spirit came into STL in 2021. They started with service to MCO, LAX, and FLL.
In 2022, they added PHX, TPA, RSW.
Then in late 2022 they dropped the new service and LAX.[1]

This was part of their nationwide service drop of 37 routes. Wasn't a STL load factor issue or STL eccentric.[2]

Spirit is literally in its final days as the pending JetBlue takeover could come soon.[3]


[1]
https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/d ... ptions.cfm

[2] https://businesstravelerusa.com/news/sp ... n-january/

[3]
https://simpleflying.com/judge-pushes-b ... es-merger/
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PostOct 12, 2023#8121

Montreal has been added to flightconnections.com
IMG_3446.jpeg (1.11MiB)
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PostOct 13, 2023#8122

NJB1981 wrote: ↑
Oct 12, 2023
I recently flew STL to MCO last week Wed-Sun.  It was my first time using Spirit Airlines and both flights were full and great.  I recall much fanfare about Spirit flying into STL, and numerous flights, i.e. Orlando, Ft Lauderdale, Phoenix, Vegas, and more.  I think I saw they had more than 1 gate at our airport about a year or two ago as well.  

This time, when booking it looked like they only fly to Vegas and Orlando out of STL.  What happened?  They really REALLY shrank their operations here.  Bummer as I would consider flying them again in the future.
They had a huge meltdown a few months after they started service here. I think that hurt their image here.

They started other markets the same time as us and they also have been pulled back to only a route or two also.

PostOct 13, 2023#8123

matguy70 wrote: ↑
Oct 12, 2023
Crazy how I posted that above and here it is on the news tonight...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox2now.co ... affic/amp/

Good read.  Readers Digest version:

1) Southwest is surging at STL
2) STL is a Southwest "hub" with now over 35% connecting traffic (airports are essentially considered hubs for an airline with 25% connections).
3) Southwest is running out of room and will need more gates and the new baggage claim build out will help.  
4) through March 2024, Southwest will have an additional growth of 7% more flights through STL International. Southwest wants to continue to grow STL in 2024.
Is Southwest needing more gates something you have heard? I haven’t see it said anywhere that they need more.

PostOct 25, 2023#8124

Not sure if I have posted these lately. 

STL loads for July

Air Canada
Toronto 85%

Alaska
SEA 85%

AA
Dallas/Fort Worth TX (DFW) 87.19%
Miami FL (MIA) 87.17%
Los Angeles CA (LAX) 86.34%
Boston MA (BOS) 85.30%
Charlotte NC (CLT) 85.29%
Philadelphia PA (PHL) 84.88%
Washington DC (DCA) 83.56%
Phoenix (PHX) 83.04%
Chicago IL (ORD) 82.88%
New York NY (LGA) 75.45%

Delta
Salt Lake City UT (SLC) 91.33%
Atlanta GA (ATL) 88.20%
Detroit MI (DTW) 86.89%
New York NY (LGA) 86.20%
Minneapolis MN (MPS) 84.95%

Frontier
Orlando FL (MCO) 91.31%
Las Vegas NV (LAS) 90.91%
Punta Cana DR (PUJ) 87.96%
Cancun MX (CUN) 84.35%
Denver CO (DEN) 66.82%

Spirit
Orlando FL (MCO) 86.70%
Las Vegas NV (LAS) 68.78%

Sun Country
Minny 78.5%

United
Newark NJ (EWR) 89.86%
Denver CO (DEN) 89.61%
Houston TX (IAH) 85.00%
Chicago IL (ORD) 84.26%
Washington DC (IAD) 83.91%

LH
Frankfurt 89.5%

Southwest
Orange County CA (SNA) 98.95%
San Jose CA (SJC) 97.27%
Long Beach CA (LGB) 96.33%
Destin FL (VPS) 96.28%
Portland OR (PDX) 96.06%
Seattle WA (SEA) 95.63%
Sacramento (SMF) 95.59%
Cancun MX (CUN) 95.25%
San Juan PR (SJU) 95.22%
Oakland CA (OAK) 94.53%
Punta Cana (PUJ) 94.17%
Montego Bay JM (MBJ) 93.94%
Myrtle Beach NC (MYR) 93.65%
Boston MA (BOS) 93.27%
Salt Lake City (SLC) 93.21%
Charleston SC (CHS) 92.88%
San Diego CA (SAN) 92.16%
Jacksonville FL (JAX) 91.45%
Los Angeles CA (LAX) 89.35%
Pensacola FL (PNS) 88.83%
Sarasota FL (SRQ) 88.73%
Tampa FL (TPA) 88.50%
Philadelphia PA (PHL) 88.41%
Las Vegas NV (LAS) 87.89%
San Antonio TX (SAT) 87.75%
Raleigh NC (RDU) 87.16%
Denver CO (DEN) 86.20%
Phoenix AZ (PHX) 85.79%
Washington DC (DCA) 85.74%
Ft. Lauderdale FL (FLL) 85.63%
Orlando FL (MCO) 85.04%
New York NY (LGA) 84.88%
Panama City FL (ECP) 84.65%
Miami FL (MIA) 83.20%
Oklahoma City OK (OKC) 82.88%
Ft. Myers FL (RSW) 82.42%
Austin TX (AUS) 81.47%
Pittsburgh PA (PIT) 80.90%
Omaha NE (OMA) 80.70%
Charlotte NC (CLT) 80.66%
Milwaukee WI (MKE) 80.06%
Baltimore MD (BWI) 78.04%
Houston TX (HOU) 77.04%
Wichita KS (ICT) 76.77%
Detroit MI (DTW) 76.76%
Nashville TN (BNA) 75.77%
Atlanta GA (ATL) 75.14%
Kansas City MO (MCI) 74.76%
Cleveland OH (CLE) 74.47%
Dallas TX (DAL) 72.14%
Little Rock AR (LIT) 71.50%
New Orleans LA (MSY) 71.32%
Des Moines IA (DSM) 70.99%
Minneapolis MN (MSP) 70.70%
Columbus OH (CMH) 67.46%
Tulsa OK (TUL) 66.48%
Chicago IL (MDW) 64.57%
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PostOct 25, 2023#8125

Shocked by the MDW number.
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