^If we just match last year's last 4 months we end at 173, lowest since 2014...
^if we match the last 3 months trend (typically our highest months) we end at 158, which is lowest since 2013. Pretty cool stuff - I sure hope they can tie this to things we are doing so we can continue to fund whatever is happening.
This is incredible. What do you all think that changed, exactly?
Is this due to national/structural factors (i.e. nationwide trends, international drug markets, low unemployment) or local/policy factors (i.e. changes in CA and Police Chief, new City Hall policies, etc)?
^If I were completely guessing from what's different from the last few years... Solid employment and wage growth across the country, the city's running that new UBI program (ARP funds), weed legalization, Cure Violence maturing, other ARP/NFL money flowing into the city...
...and maybe on the negative side... we are displacing people/households below the federal poverty level on the south side... (makes me wonder if maybe the city has finally hit a bottom on displacing population on the north side too)
Again, totally guessing because these things are usually a combination of a lot of things. Curious if anyone else has any ideas/inputs?
Displacing poor people on the south side? Have you been to Dutchtown, Mr Pleasant, Marine Villa, Carondelet or Patch recently?
Those neighborhoods are all decidedly poorer than they were twenty years ago.
I'm counting the entire south-side as a whole... south of the central corridor. Pretty sure we have data that has been showing a shift of young white educated moving into the city...
There is the area around TGP, which everyone and their mother have been wanting to move to. Along with adjacent areas, such as Fox Park or Benton Park West, those areas have seen substantial improvement and house price appreciation since I moved to STL.
But I agree with JJG that when you start looking beyond those areas (which are only a fraction of South City), there are large parts of South City that seem to be going the way of North City - completely abandoned and neglected blocks, empty houses, warehouses and storefronts everywhere. Just keep going South on Grand past the Gravois intersection and it really starts looking like parts of North City.
^I think both things could be true. There's a couple of pretty depressing stretches of "Southerer Grand." Seeing the Feasting Fox the way it's become is . . . distressing. (All seemed to start going downhill when Giuseppe's closed.)
But that's anecdotal. Anecdotal evidence can lead us astray pretty quickly. My property taxes (also anecdotal) tell a very different story. (I'm a few blocks southeast of Grand and Bates in an area that's still pretty blue-collar.)
I know it can look grim at times, but I'm hoping the better data is the light at the end of the tunnel.
^I think both things could be true. There's a couple of pretty depressing stretches of "Southerer Grand." Seeing the Feasting Fox the way it's become is . . . distressing. (All seemed to start going downhill when Giuseppe's closed.)
But that's anecdotal. Anecdotal evidence can lead us astray pretty quickly. My property taxes (also anecdotal) tell a very different story. (I'm a few blocks southeast of Grand and Bates in an area that's still pretty blue-collar.)
I know it can look grim at times, but I'm hoping the better data is the light at the end of the tunnel.
I don't think there is a single block in South City that is comparable to the areas of North City that have lost 60% of the buildings with half those left standing remaining are vacant. Even in the more deprived areas you have much better access to grocery stores and other amenities.
Displacing poor people on the south side? Have you been to Dutchtown, Mr Pleasant, Marine Villa, Carondelet or Patch recently?
Those neighborhoods are all decidedly poorer than they were twenty years ago.
In the last 10 years, the poor were displaced to the above neighborhoods from other improving neighborhoods on the Southside that were / are experiencing substantial renovation. Now, it would seem, people in those neighborhoods are being displaced to the more affordable parts of South County. There is alot more renovation in Dutchtown, Mt. Pleasant, etc. than you might realize.
I don't think there is a single block in South City that is comparable to the areas of North City that have lost 60% of the buildings with half those left standing remaining are vacant. Even in the more deprived areas you have much better access to grocery stores and other amenities.
Agreed. They are not comparable. Southside neighborhoods are almost still completely intact.
^I think both things could be true. There's a couple of pretty depressing stretches of "Southerer Grand." Seeing the Feasting Fox the way it's become is . . . distressing. (All seemed to start going downhill when Giuseppe's closed.)
But that's anecdotal. Anecdotal evidence can lead us astray pretty quickly. My property taxes (also anecdotal) tell a very different story. (I'm a few blocks southeast of Grand and Bates in an area that's still pretty blue-collar.)
I know it can look grim at times, but I'm hoping the better data is the light at the end of the tunnel.
Bates is the divider imo.
Agree. I live in Holly Hills. Bates is the northern boundary of our neighborhood and once you cross it the difference is obvious. East of 55 a similar change occurs. This isn't to knock all of Dutchtown or Carondelet or even Patch, but all three are definitely "block-by-block" and the number of "good" blocks has definitely declined in the 9ish years I've been in the area. There certainly is some redevelopment happening in all of those places, but its hard to say whether its occurring at a faster rate than the blight.
Anecdotally, I've spoken to some realtors that have said they have seen more recent interest in the Dutchtown, Carondolet, and Patch neighborhoods than they've seen in a while.
Also anecdotally, I know several professionals with good salaries in their early-to-mid 30s that have purchased in those neighborhoods recently.
theory on why violent & total crime is down: look at the citywide category thats up: society, that is victimless crimes including weapons violations. Through AUG,SLMPD recorded 800 weapons law violations than in 2022, which could prevent that person from committing a crime later
theory on why violent & total crime is down: look at the citywide category thats up: society, that is victimless crimes including weapons violations. Through AUG,SLMPD recorded 800 weapons law violations than in 2022, which could prevent that person from committing a crime later
DB, did you mean "SLMPD recorded 800 MORE weapons law violations than in 2022"? More?
theory on why violent & total crime is down: look at the citywide category thats up: society, that is victimless crimes including weapons violations. Through AUG,SLMPD recorded 800 weapons law violations than in 2022, which could prevent that person from committing a crime later
DB, did you mean "SLMPD recorded 800 MORE weapons law violations than in 2022"? More?
theory on why violent & total crime is down: look at the citywide category thats up: society, that is victimless crimes including weapons violations. Through AUG,SLMPD recorded 800 weapons law violations than in 2022, which could prevent that person from committing a crime later
DB, did you mean "SLMPD recorded 800 MORE weapons law violations than in 2022"? More?
Suspect so.
Yes 1900 to 2700
I'd agree with that premise as a working theory then. I've read/heard that many crimes are committed by small number of people so getting those people off-the-streets can indeed lower crime.
hope it continues with vastly improved 911 response.