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PostJul 15, 2023#9351

dbInSouthCity wrote:
Jul 14, 2023
throatybeard wrote:
Jul 12, 2023
I almost bought an obscenely beautiful house in Mount Pleasant.

Then I looked at the 2022 and 2023 homicide maps an thought about coming and going with my kid in the dark in the winter.
Do you think people just get randomly shot in Mount pleasant? I think you have a much much higher chance of a random car jacking shooting in Shaw than MP
Lol. God forbid someone doesn’t want to live in a neighborhood with a high murder rate. Insanely out of touch comment.

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PostJul 17, 2023#9352

Can someone please point me to a resource that shows the crime stats for a particular neighborhood in greater st.louis?

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PostJul 17, 2023#9353


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PostJul 17, 2023#9354

quincunx wrote:
Jul 17, 2023
There's this from StlToday

https://graphics.stltoday.com/apps/crime/
this is awesome, thanks!

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PostJul 30, 2023#9355

I’m guessing the reason this thread has been dead for 2 weeks is because we are 33 hours away from first July in 12 years with single digit homicide count. Even if we pick up # 10 it’s going to be 60% less than 5 year average July or -40% less than last July. If this trend goes into august (32 last year) we could see a 15-20% reduction by end of year.

Also I expect July to show 4 straight month of crime decline over same month last year city wide. Should have data by next Friday

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PostJul 31, 2023#9356

dbInSouthCity wrote:
Jul 30, 2023
I’m guessing the reason this thread has been dead for 2 weeks is because we are 33 hours away from first July in 12 years with single digit homicide count.  Even if we pick up # 10 it’s going to be 60% less than 5 year average July or -40% less than last July.  If this trend goes into august (32 last year) we could see a 15-20% reduction by end of year.  

Also I expect July to show 4 straight month of crime decline over same month last year city wide. Should have data by next Friday
Really is amazing!

PostJul 31, 2023#9357

dbInSouthCity wrote:
Jul 30, 2023
I’m guessing the reason this thread has been dead for 2 weeks is because we are 33 hours away from first July in 12 years with single digit homicide count.  Even if we pick up # 10 it’s going to be 60% less than 5 year average July or -40% less than last July.  If this trend goes into august (32 last year) we could see a 15-20% reduction by end of year.  

Also I expect July to show 4 straight month of crime decline over same month last year city wide. Should have data by next Friday
Really is amazing! Let's hope its a trend 🙏

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PostAug 01, 2023#9358

10 homicides in July is 61% less than an average July over last 5 years & 44% less than July 2022, its the lowest july total since 2013 too 

For the year thru July homicides are -8% vs 22(-11%vs 21, -40%vs 20, -18%vs 19) if the July trend continues into Aug (32 last year) it should set up the year for a significant decline

Rest of crime data will be out by end of the week for july 

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PostAug 01, 2023#9359

Sadly, Kansas City is between 115 and 117. About 30% over ‘22 and ‘21. I don’t keep making this comparison to celebrate any type of grim competition. I bring it up because it’s remarkable. Something is working in St. Louis and something is very broken in Kansas City.

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PostAug 01, 2023#9360

Kansas City is currently at 119. 

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PostAug 01, 2023#9361

This is great news. The clearance rate of 77% should really be praised. I think the high clearance rate and declining number of homicides are symbiotic statistics and are a good sign for continuing this trend (ie. a high clearance rate gets killers off the street leading to declining homicide numbers, declining homicides lowers the workload for detectives to achieve a higher clearance rate).

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PostAug 01, 2023#9362

^ it isnt 77%, its more like 48%    i think i explained this before, this year for some reason they added the homicides that happened last year but cleared this year but didnt add the 84 outstanding cases from last year to the denominator.  its bizarre. 

PostAug 01, 2023#9363

Total Crime in St.Louis City through June is -6.16% vs 2022 (same time period) 
Person: -1.7% 
Property: -3.82 
Society: -6.0% 
Unknown: -17% 

Jan & Feb were up over last year but since March each month has been down vs last year. I expect same in July when data is out this week

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PostAug 02, 2023#9364

^Heh. That is odd. But it's still darn nice to see the numbers down.

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PostAug 03, 2023#9365

I don’t know why there aren’t more calls for some type of leadership resignation, Mayor Jones included. The fact that this problem isn’t fixed while hundreds of millions sit untapped. Pay operators double. Pay whatever the contractor wants for a new facility. I know things are always harder than they seem but this should be priority number one.

Poor trash pick-up is a small inconvenience compared to this.

https://www.kmov.com/2023/08/03/we-were ... es-danger/

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PostAug 04, 2023#9366

I’d be silly to call for the Mayor to resign for not fixing a 10year+ old problem.  This admin has worked towards fixing it more so than any other before including getting $32m towards a new 911 center and significantly increase pay for operators.

And the lady in this story retired 2 weeks before the current mayor started

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PostAug 04, 2023#9367

How much does the new 911 center cost?

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PostAug 04, 2023#9368

^$40m

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PostAug 04, 2023#9369

How long can we expect until AI takes over the job of 911 operators?  

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PostAug 04, 2023#9370

July data is in
Capture.PNG (32.25KiB)

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PostAug 04, 2023#9371

Taken with grain of salt on the overall.  I feel like these numbers are skewed positive by lack of 911 access and police reporting methodologies.  

We have had several property crimes, vehicle tampering and trespassers in our vicinity where no one could get through to 911 and police never came for a report when non-emergency was called.

The violent stuff is probably accurate (except the clearance rate as noted by DB) as its the mostly likely to make it to reporting, though I think the lower homicides could be attributed to shoddy aim (j/k...kinda). 

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PostAug 04, 2023#9372

TheWayoftheArch_V2.0 wrote:
Aug 04, 2023
Taken with grain of salt on the overall.  I feel like these numbers are skewed positive by lack of 911 access and police reporting methodologies.  

We have had several property crimes, vehicle tampering and trespassers in our vicinity where no one could get through to 911 and police never came for a report when non-emergency was called.

The violent stuff is probably accurate (except the clearance rate as noted by DB) as its the mostly likely to make it to reporting, though I think the lower homicides could be attributed to shoddy aim (j/k...kinda). 
thats a pretty faulty assertion, this isnt 2023 vs 2019 or 2015, its vs 12 months ago, nothing has changed in how people report things.  in fact 911 has gotten slightly better over the last 12 months. 

PostAug 04, 2023#9373

Citywide YTD is down about 7.8%, this was pretty tough to figure out. if you add up month to month its down 10% but its not as straight forward as that. late reports get added after monthly is posted but only total is updated with the next month but previous months reports arent.
this is partly because police sometimes take a week or 2 to report to a non-violent crime like a car break

both are attached. 
Capture.PNG (44.87KiB)
2.PNG (9.14KiB)

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PostAug 04, 2023#9374

👏👏👏

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PostAug 08, 2023#9375

dbInSouthCity wrote:
Aug 04, 2023
TheWayoftheArch_V2.0 wrote:
Aug 04, 2023
Taken with grain of salt on the overall.  I feel like these numbers are skewed positive by lack of 911 access and police reporting methodologies.  

We have had several property crimes, vehicle tampering and trespassers in our vicinity where no one could get through to 911 and police never came for a report when non-emergency was called.

The violent stuff is probably accurate (except the clearance rate as noted by DB) as its the mostly likely to make it to reporting, though I think the lower homicides could be attributed to shoddy aim (j/k...kinda). 
thats a pretty faulty assertion, this isnt 2023 vs 2019 or 2015, its vs 12 months ago, nothing has changed in how people report things.  in fact 911 has gotten slightly better over the last 12 months. 
How is this a faulty assertion when based on empirical evidence via actual experience? 

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