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PostAug 31, 2023#9401

Summer Months Homicides (June, July, August total) is the lowest since 2014 too

2023- 34
2022- 63
2021- 46
2020-115 (really)
2019- 66
2018- 48
2017- 71
2016-61
2015- 66
2014- 33

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PostAug 31, 2023#9402

Huge win for the city - let's hope we can bring this home.
Screen Shot 2023-08-31 at 3.41.11 PM.png (65.75KiB)

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PostAug 31, 2023#9403

Year end reduction of 20-25% is likely

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PostAug 31, 2023#9404

^If we just match last year's last 4 months we end at 173, lowest since 2014... 
^if we match the last 3 months trend (typically our highest months) we end at 158, which is lowest since 2013. Pretty cool stuff - I sure hope they can tie this to things we are doing so we can continue to fund whatever is happening. 

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PostSep 01, 2023#9405

This is incredible. What do you all think that changed, exactly? 
Is this due to national/structural factors (i.e. nationwide trends, international drug markets, low unemployment) or local/policy factors (i.e. changes in CA and Police Chief, new City Hall policies, etc)?

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PostSep 01, 2023#9406

^If I were completely guessing from what's different from the last few years... Solid employment and wage growth across the country, the city's running that new UBI program (ARP funds), weed legalization, Cure Violence maturing, other ARP/NFL money flowing into the city...  

...and maybe on the negative side... we are displacing people/households below the federal poverty level on the south side... (makes me wonder if maybe the city has finally hit a bottom on displacing population on the north side too)

Again, totally guessing because these things are usually a combination of a lot of things. Curious if anyone else has any ideas/inputs? 

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PostSep 01, 2023#9407

Displacing poor people on the south side? Have you been to Dutchtown, Mr Pleasant, Marine Villa, Carondelet or Patch recently?

Those neighborhoods are all decidedly poorer than they were twenty years ago.

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PostSep 01, 2023#9408

JaneJacobsGhost wrote:
Sep 01, 2023
Displacing poor people on the south side? Have you been to Dutchtown, Mr Pleasant, Marine Villa, Carondelet or Patch recently?

Those neighborhoods are all decidedly poorer than they were twenty years ago.
I'm counting the entire south-side as a whole... south of the central corridor.  Pretty sure we have data that has been showing a shift of young white educated moving into the city... 

Also, I said... "Again, totally guessing"

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PostSep 01, 2023#9409

There is the area around TGP, which everyone and their mother have been wanting to move to. Along with adjacent areas, such as Fox Park or Benton Park West, those areas have seen substantial improvement and house price appreciation since I moved to STL.

But I agree with JJG that when you start looking beyond those areas (which are only a fraction of South City), there are large parts of South City that seem to be going the way of North City - completely abandoned and neglected blocks, empty houses, warehouses and storefronts everywhere. Just keep going South on Grand past the Gravois intersection and it really starts looking like parts of North City.  

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PostSep 02, 2023#9410

^I think both things could be true. There's a couple of pretty depressing stretches of "Southerer Grand." Seeing the Feasting Fox the way it's become is . . . distressing. (All seemed to start going downhill when Giuseppe's closed.)
 
But that's anecdotal. Anecdotal evidence can lead us astray pretty quickly. My property taxes (also anecdotal) tell a very different story. (I'm a few blocks southeast of Grand and Bates in an area that's still pretty blue-collar.)

I know it can look grim at times, but I'm hoping the better data is the light at the end of the tunnel.

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PostSep 02, 2023#9411

symphonicpoet wrote:
Sep 02, 2023
^I think both things could be true. There's a couple of pretty depressing stretches of "Southerer Grand." Seeing the Feasting Fox the way it's become is . . . distressing. (All seemed to start going downhill when Giuseppe's closed.)
 
But that's anecdotal. Anecdotal evidence can lead us astray pretty quickly. My property taxes (also anecdotal) tell a very different story. (I'm a few blocks southeast of Grand and Bates in an area that's still pretty blue-collar.)

I know it can look grim at times, but I'm hoping the better data is the light at the end of the tunnel.
Bates is the divider imo.

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PostSep 02, 2023#9412

As of 8-28 Kansas City is at 186 homicides for the year so far.

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PostSep 02, 2023#9413

Baltimore Jack wrote:As of 8-28 Kansas City is at 186 homicides for the year so far.
Maybe as a Metro? City department reporting 132 as of this morning.

https://www.kcpd.org/media/4898/2023-09 ... alysis.pdf

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PostSep 02, 2023#9414

addxb2 wrote:
Sep 02, 2023
Baltimore Jack wrote:As of 8-28 Kansas City is at 186 homicides for the year so far.
Maybe as a Metro? City department reporting 132 as of this morning.

https://www.kcpd.org/media/4898/2023-09 ... alysis.pdf
Oops. Yes I stand corrected.

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PostSep 03, 2023#9415

I don't think there is a single block in South City that is comparable to the areas of North City that have lost 60% of the buildings with half those left standing remaining are vacant. Even in the more deprived areas you have much better access to grocery stores and other amenities.

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PostSep 03, 2023#9416

JaneJacobsGhost wrote:
Sep 01, 2023
Displacing poor people on the south side? Have you been to Dutchtown, Mr Pleasant, Marine Villa, Carondelet or Patch recently?

Those neighborhoods are all decidedly poorer than they were twenty years ago.
In the last 10 years, the poor were displaced to the above neighborhoods from other improving neighborhoods on the Southside that were / are experiencing substantial renovation.  Now, it would seem, people in those neighborhoods are being displaced to the more affordable parts of South County.  There is alot more renovation in Dutchtown, Mt. Pleasant, etc. than you might realize. 

PostSep 03, 2023#9417

Ebsy wrote:
Sep 03, 2023
I don't think there is a single block in South City that is comparable to the areas of North City that have lost 60% of the buildings with half those left standing remaining are vacant. Even in the more deprived areas you have much better access to grocery stores and other amenities.
Agreed.  They are not comparable.  Southside neighborhoods are almost still completely intact.  

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PostSep 05, 2023#9418

August data is in
IMG_5776.jpeg (225.36KiB)
IMG_5775.jpeg (224.03KiB)

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PostSep 05, 2023#9419

JaneJacobsGhost wrote:
Sep 02, 2023
symphonicpoet wrote:
Sep 02, 2023
^I think both things could be true. There's a couple of pretty depressing stretches of "Southerer Grand." Seeing the Feasting Fox the way it's become is . . . distressing. (All seemed to start going downhill when Giuseppe's closed.)
 
But that's anecdotal. Anecdotal evidence can lead us astray pretty quickly. My property taxes (also anecdotal) tell a very different story. (I'm a few blocks southeast of Grand and Bates in an area that's still pretty blue-collar.)

I know it can look grim at times, but I'm hoping the better data is the light at the end of the tunnel.
Bates is the divider imo.
Agree. I live in Holly Hills. Bates is the northern boundary of our neighborhood and once you cross it the difference is obvious. East of 55 a similar change occurs. This isn't to knock all of Dutchtown or Carondelet or even Patch, but all three are definitely "block-by-block" and the number of "good" blocks has definitely declined in the 9ish years I've been in the area. There certainly is some redevelopment happening in all of those places, but its hard to say whether its occurring at a faster rate than the blight.

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PostSep 05, 2023#9420

Anecdotally, I've spoken to some realtors that have said they have seen more recent interest in the Dutchtown, Carondolet, and Patch neighborhoods than they've seen in a while. 

Also anecdotally, I know several professionals with good salaries in their early-to-mid 30s that have purchased in those neighborhoods recently. 

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PostSep 05, 2023#9421

theory on why violent & total crime is down: look at the citywide category thats up: society, that is victimless crimes including weapons violations. Through AUG,SLMPD recorded 800 weapons law violations than in 2022, which could prevent that person from committing a crime later

PostSep 05, 2023#9422

Shootings through August are down 15% compared to 2022 and are at the lowest since 2014 and down 21% from the 2015-2022 average.

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PostSep 05, 2023#9423

dbInSouthCity wrote:
Sep 05, 2023
theory on why violent & total crime is down: look at the citywide category thats up: society, that is victimless crimes including weapons violations. Through AUG,SLMPD recorded 800 weapons law violations than in 2022, which could prevent that person from committing a crime later
DB, did you mean "SLMPD recorded 800 MORE weapons law violations than in 2022"?  More?

Suspect so.

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PostSep 05, 2023#9424

soulardx wrote:
Sep 05, 2023
dbInSouthCity wrote:
Sep 05, 2023
theory on why violent & total crime is down: look at the citywide category thats up: society, that is victimless crimes including weapons violations. Through AUG,SLMPD recorded 800 weapons law violations than in 2022, which could prevent that person from committing a crime later
DB, did you mean "SLMPD recorded 800 MORE weapons law violations than in 2022"?  More?

Suspect so.
Yes 1900 to 2700

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PostSep 05, 2023#9425

dbInSouthCity wrote:
Sep 05, 2023
soulardx wrote:
Sep 05, 2023
dbInSouthCity wrote:
Sep 05, 2023
theory on why violent & total crime is down: look at the citywide category thats up: society, that is victimless crimes including weapons violations. Through AUG,SLMPD recorded 800 weapons law violations than in 2022, which could prevent that person from committing a crime later
DB, did you mean "SLMPD recorded 800 MORE weapons law violations than in 2022"?  More?

Suspect so.
Yes 1900 to 2700
I'd agree with that premise as a working theory then.  I've read/heard that many crimes are committed by small number of people so getting those people off-the-streets can indeed lower crime. 

hope it continues with vastly improved 911 response.

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