urbanSTL

There aren’t going to be local race exit polls, one thing that’s clear is that progressive/black vote candidates are very hard to beat city wide now

Michigan, Kentucky, and I believe Montana all approved pro-choice amendments as well. Expect to see more of these on statewide ballots in 2023-24. MO needs to start working now to put it on the next state election. 

Baltimore Jack wrote: ↑

Nov 14, 2022

From what I can tell there were 2,059,000 total votes cast in Missouri this election
In 2018 the last midterm there 2,442,000. There were US Senate seats up in both years. 

That's roughly a 20% drop. 

COVID hit harder than I thought.

A. We didn't lose 400,000 Missourians to COVID
B. Other states like Pennsylvania and Michigan saw turnout increase from 2018. 

MarkHaversham wrote:

Baltimore Jack wrote: ↑

Nov 14, 2022

From what I can tell there were 2,059,000 total votes cast in Missouri this election
In 2018 the last midterm there 2,442,000. There were US Senate seats up in both years. 

That's roughly a 20% drop. 

COVID hit harder than I thought.

Apathy hit harder

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Governorships were 28-22 going into the election and most projections had it 30-20 GOP but we will end up 26-24 gop. Democrats flipped Maryland, Massachusetts and Arizona and republicans flipped Nevada and were unable to flip Kansas, Wisconsin and Michigan

Do we have any guesses on who runs -- and who wins -- in Missouri in 2024?

Ashcroft probably runs for Governor I would imagine.

^Ugh!

Missouri Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe has already announced he is going to run; apparently he made this clear back in 2021, I was reading. 

Who is more likely to get the 'R' ticket in MO -- Mike Kehoe or John Ashcroft? 

Do Dems have any realistic shot at statewide wins anymore? It seems like MO has taken a huge swing to the right recently, even though it wasn't too long ago we had a Dem governor and senator.

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^Good question. Kansas, while still a red state, just reelected it's Democratic governor and Johnson County is represented in Congress by a Democrat who won reelection quite easily. Something that was unthinkable 10-15 years ago. Things can change and states can change their hue on the red/blue divide relatively quickly given the right conditions. Florida seems to be a state that was politically reshaped by COVID with Republicans overwhelmingly winning the gubernatorial and senate races even as Democrats nationwide had the best showing of a party in power in the midterms in 20 years. 

Back to Missouri I think a candidate will really have to shave off 10-15% from the massive GOP margins held in rural counties to have a shot statewide. Apparently Springfield is tilting a little more purple and possibly St, Charles County as well but as long as Republicans rack up 75-25 or 80-20 victories in all these smaller counties the Democratic advantage in STL and KC city and inner burbs will be washed over. 

 

Recent elections have shown that candidate quality can make a huge difference too. I think that Kander is also evidence of that, with significantly closer margins than other recent Dem candidates.


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Democrats can win statewide in MO still but need to significantly juice turnout in STL City, county, KC suburbs and need to win back some of the JeffCO/franklin union vote.  
I think you'll see rural turnout drop with this Trump vs GOP civil war that will break loose after the Georgia run off. 

It will be interesting to see what Hawley does in the next two years. Does he run for reelection or set his sights on the GOP Presidential primaries? 

Who might the Democrats go with in 2024?

Will Nicole Galloway try again? Unfortunately, she was thrashed in 2020 and I'm not sure I support putting her up against a Kehoe-type that is essentially a Parson clone. 

Missouri is on a bit of a roll with ballot initiatives; could a hot-button topic, such as abortion, make it onto the 2024 ballot? It'd be interesting to see what kind of turnout that would inspire in both the urban and rural areas. I'd hope Missouri could do the right thing, like Kansas did in September of this year.

^Good point. There will definitely be a push to put abortion rights on the statewide ballot in 2024. You can bet the legislature will want it to be on the August primary ballot rather than November. Either way it will pass, but Republicans won't want it to juice turnout for Democrats in the general election. 

And I agree with DB that there is good reason to believe the rural strength of the GOP will be tested in the upcoming party civil war. 

RockChalkSTL wrote: ↑

Nov 21, 2022

Who might the Democrats go with in 2024?

Will Nicole Galloway try again? Unfortunately, she was thrashed in 2020 and I'm not sure I support putting her up against a Kehoe-type that is essentially a Parson clone. 

Missouri is on a bit of a roll with ballot initiatives; could a hot-button topic, such as abortion, make it onto the 2024 ballot? It'd be interesting to see what kind of turnout that would inspire in both the urban and rural areas. I'd hope Missouri could do the right thing, like Kansas did in September of this year.

Kehoe is not a Paron clone, not even close.  Kehoe is well respected across the board and has always gone to bet for stl city behind the scenes. 

I just figured that he would be. 

I forget which "political map" it was that I saw a few days ago, but it showed Parson and Kehoe as both being far right and very near each other. 

You're telling me different. I hope you're right; it'd at least probably answer which of Kehoe and Ashcroft is the lesser evil. 

RockChalkSTL wrote: ↑

Nov 21, 2022

I just figured that he would be. 

I forget which "political map" it was that I saw a few days ago, but it showed Parson and Kehoe as both being far right and very near each other. 

You're telling me different. I hope you're right; it'd at least probably answer which of Kehoe and Ashcroft is the lesser evil. 

I've known him since early 2010's when I was at MoDOT in Jeff City and he was on the MoDOT Commission and still a car dealership owner, he cant stand the current version of the trump GOP.  He is still a classical republican but he will still work with democrats 

Miss Shell wrote: ↑

Nov 21, 2022

Do Dems have any realistic shot at statewide wins anymore? It seems like MO has taken a huge swing to the right recently, even though it wasn't too long ago we had a Dem governor and senator.  

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Democrats have largely embraced identity politics and cultural issues to the exclusion of economic issues. I think nationally they're able to ride cultural trends to some extent by doing this, but it's completely out-of-step with rural Missourians. Furthermore, they scrupulously avoid tying social and economic issues together (e.g. "we're fighting for workers' rights such as marriage, bodily autonomy, and higher wages for all) and instead frame them as oppositional ("how dare anyone selfishly prioritize jobs and tax cuts above minority/women's rights"). They've basically dumped unions by the wayside in favor of corporations since the 80s, and now they can't win statewide in a state that overwhelmingly repealed right-to-work.

I think Democrats could easily appeal to workers and win Missouri, but they have no desire to in this generation.

Edit: Nationalization of media is another headwind; fifty years ago a local candidate could plausibly appeal to Missouri on his or her own terms, but nowadays it's more difficult to cleave their own identity from the national party's.

Dems in Missouri should try to attract small farmers and the small towns that depend on them. The Republicans just want mega corporates swine farms. Dems used to be the ones supporting crop prices to keep small farmers in business. They need to get back to that.


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