urbanSTL

I think it's just an excuse to back out a deal that was prematurely publicized.

AT&T Tower could become apartments, but it isn't confirmed yet how many that would be or what they would look like. Railway has a better chance of doing well as apartments (on the upper floors) anyway because of the location. 

too much competition that hasn't even been planned and that you have a years head start to beat does seem BS 

DogtownBnR wrote: ↑

Oct 06, 2022

Does the fact that this developer bailed due to perceived market saturation (due to AT&T) mean that other developers such as Cordish and others will feel the same way? That remains to be seen, but considering our stagnant growth, it would seem that the market is getting saturated or will hit that peak at some point soon. 

Downtown isn’t stagnant. It grew by 45% last decade. DT west grew by 30%.

This is about demographics. Downtown’s black population is skyrocketing and developer are getting scared off because of our old culprit, racism.

Developers are falling over themselves to develop the CWE, Chesterfield and St. Charles which grew at 15%, 5% and 7% last decade. Why? Because they’re white-er communities.

Greater StL needs to actively court developers with a track record of developing in minority majority communities for DT projects.

Greater StL needs to actively court developers with a track record of developing in minority majority communities for DT projects.

The company is based in Brooklyn which is less white than downtown STL. 

MOsloth22 wrote: ↑

Oct 07, 2022

Greater StL needs to actively court developers with a track record of developing in minority majority communities for DT projects.

The company is based in Brooklyn which is less white than downtown STL. 

Read my post again. Then read your post.

Edit: Brooklyn is 49.5% white. DT StL 44% white. Congrats, not only are you bad at reading but you’re also incapable of a basic google search.

I didn’t do a Google search, I looked directly at Census data. Kings County is 37.6% white according to the 2020 Census. The Biz Journal article says the developer also works in the Bronx which is like 9% non-Hispanic white. This developer clearly has experience working in minority majority communities.

JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑

Oct 06, 2022

DogtownBnR wrote: ↑

Oct 06, 2022

Does the fact that this developer bailed due to perceived market saturation (due to AT&T) mean that other developers such as Cordish and others will feel the same way? That remains to be seen, but considering our stagnant growth, it would seem that the market is getting saturated or will hit that peak at some point soon. 

Downtown isn’t stagnant. It grew by 45% last decade. DT west grew by 30%.

This is about demographics. Downtown’s black population is skyrocketing and developer are getting scared off because of our old culprit, racism.

Developers are falling over themselves to develop the CWE, Chesterfield and St. Charles which grew at 15%, 5% and 7% last decade. Why? Because they’re white-er communities.

Greater StL needs to actively court developers with a track record of developing in minority majority communities for DT projects.

Baseless acquisitions have no place on this forum.  Stop trolling.  

Massive disappointment. Honestly, I'd take this being redeveloped first over AT&T Tower anyday. The tower at least looks decent still from a distance and you wouldn't know it was empty if you didn't go right up to it. Railway Exchange is obviously vacant and just sucks the soul out of that entire area around One Metro.

STLAPTS wrote: ↑

Oct 07, 2022

JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑

Oct 06, 2022

DogtownBnR wrote: ↑

Oct 06, 2022

Does the fact that this developer bailed due to perceived market saturation (due to AT&T) mean that other developers such as Cordish and others will feel the same way? That remains to be seen, but considering our stagnant growth, it would seem that the market is getting saturated or will hit that peak at some point soon. 

Downtown isn’t stagnant. It grew by 45% last decade. DT west grew by 30%.

This is about demographics. Downtown’s black population is skyrocketing and developer are getting scared off because of our old culprit, racism.

Developers are falling over themselves to develop the CWE, Chesterfield and St. Charles which grew at 15%, 5% and 7% last decade. Why? Because they’re white-er communities.

Greater StL needs to actively court developers with a track record of developing in minority majority communities for DT projects.

Baseless acquisitions have no place on this forum.  Stop trolling.  

It’s not baseless. I have a half millennia of data

That 37.6% for Brooklyn is everyone who reported as white on the Census (it’s 35% non-Hispanic white). In the Bronx, that number is 14% (compared to 9% non-Hispanic white). The fact is that the two communities where this company primarily operates are minority majority communities, as you were requesting, and far more diverse than downtown St. Louis.

Sorry everyone. I’ll stop discussing this irrelevant topic now.

Regardless of the racial implications, the developer is right about one thing: we are going to reach a point of market saturation, especially in downtown, if we don't add population at some point soon. While the number of people living downtown has increased, living in other parts of the city has also become increasingly attractive.

I know I'm stating the obvious, but I can also understand hesitancy to develop such a behemoth of a building when our growth has been stagnant at best.

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MOsloth22 wrote: ↑

Oct 07, 2022

That 37.6% for Brooklyn is everyone who reported as white on the Census (it’s 35% non-Hispanic white). In the Bronx, that number is 14% (compared to 9% non-Hispanic white). The fact is that the two communities where this company primarily operates are minority majority communities, as you were requesting, and far more diverse than downtown St. Louis.

Sorry everyone. I’ll stop discussing this irrelevant topic now.

That isn’t a “minority majority”. Brooklyn is a plurality white community. DT StL is a plurality black community.

JaneJacobsGhost wrote:

Suds wrote: ↑

Oct 07, 2022

Regardless of the implications, the developer is right about one thing: we are going to reach a point of market saturation, especially in downtown, if we don't add population at some point soon. While the number of people living downtown has increased, living in other parts of the city has also become increasingly attractive.

I know I'm stating the obvious, but I can also understand hesitancy to develop such a behemoth of a building when our growth has been stagnant at best.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Interesting. I’m not hearing the same talk of “market saturation” crushing the rental in midtown, the CWE, the Grove, Chesterfield or St. Charles. What’s the difference?

I'm worried about those markets too.

Anyways, I'm not sure if it's even fair to say that. If you look in the thread for 100 in CWE, there's talk about the market potentially not being there for luxury towers like that. Sometimes you can build it and they will come, but other times they already need to be there.

Suds wrote: ↑

Oct 07, 2022

JaneJacobsGhost wrote:

Suds wrote: ↑

Oct 07, 2022

Regardless of the implications, the developer is right about one thing: we are going to reach a point of market saturation, especially in downtown, if we don't add population at some point soon. While the number of people living downtown has increased, living in other parts of the city has also become increasingly attractive.

I know I'm stating the obvious, but I can also understand hesitancy to develop such a behemoth of a building when our growth has been stagnant at best.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Interesting. I’m not hearing the same talk of “market saturation” crushing the rental in midtown, the CWE, the Grove, Chesterfield or St. Charles. What’s the difference?

I'm worried about those markets too.

Anyways, I'm not sure if it's even fair to say that. If you look in the thread for 100 in CWE, there's talk about the market potentially not being there for luxury towers like that. Sometimes you can build it and they will come, but other times they already need to be there.

Sounds like classic chicken little StL thinking to me. We’ve opened two luxury towers in the last two years and they’ve both been fabulous successes and now we’re worried about “market saturation” lol

^Yes, it's often simply the math that is at issue. I don't know why it's so hard for some developers to say we took a good hard look at things, and it just didn't pencil out for us right now. Maybe it will for someone else with a different view on risk and return, financing approach, use mix, etc., but it doesn't work for this particular proposal at this particular time.

Downtown doesn't have the market to absorb 600 plus units at once.  Especially in a single building.  If it did, the deal would get done.  The project has the necessary political and financial support (tax credits and abatement). It has nothing to do with race.  Everything to do with economics.  The Brooklyn group took a swing at it and couldn't make it work.  At some point, it will get done. Hopefully sooner rather than later. 

It'd be a shame not to build more apartments due to worry that there are too many rather than to build more apartments and find out there are too many. And what great disaster happens if there are too many? Rents stop rising?

The developer goes bankrupt, Investors stop giving said developer money for future projects, Banks don’t work with the developer anymore to name a few

I see where you are coming from that the city is still shrinking, but you have to consider that STL is really two cities. The rich white one and the poor black one. STL is growing its population of educated and richer whites (many of them childless or empty nesters) which is the exact target market for these apartment projects. The poorer and blacker side of the city is comprised more of families with larger household sizes. This is where STL is bleeding population, but unlikely to strongly affect the central corridor yuppy apartment market.

If I had to guess in the case of this project, the developer has been watching interest rates and construction costs spike. The financial math doesn't look as appealing. Don't be surprised when this isn't the last major project scrapped this year.  Thanks JPowell.

STLAPTS wrote: ↑

Oct 07, 2022

Downtown doesn't have the market to absorb 600 plus units at once.  Especially in a single building.  If it did, the deal would get done.  The project has the necessary political and financial support (tax credits and abatement). It has nothing to do with race.  Everything to do with economics.  The Brooklyn group took a swing at it and couldn't make it work.  At some point, it will get done. Hopefully sooner rather than later. 

I think it's gullible to just take what developers say to the press at face value