Missouri State Gov't & Politics

Baltimore Jack · PostSep 22, 2022#3512022-09-22T13:40+00:00

Just a reminder that if you live in the MO 80th district (TGS, Shaw, North Hampton, The Hill) this nut is running to be your state rep

https://mobile.twitter.com/kahilzinger/with_replies

I know he has no chance of unseating Meredith but I want him to lose by a massive margin as he is practically QAnon as you can see by his Twitter posts. The GOP in STL needs to be ashamed that they allowed this person on the ballot. I'll be happy if he finished 3rd behind the Libertarian nominee. It would serve the party right for giving a platform to this election denier, misogynist anti vaxxer.

symphonicpoet · PostSep 23, 2022#3522022-09-23T04:41+00:00

Yabba dabba wow! Haven't heard about him yet. Not in his district, but dang!

mikenewell48 · PostSep 23, 2022#3532022-09-23T12:42+00:00

voting? Missouri is in the bottom 10 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/20/us/politics/cost-of-voting.html?unlocked_article_code=io7aM2KK4YAaPcy_5GxxOtOn3HqPYJ4-WNj3DMYSTYRgH0TDMgQAy8dZWDj96bnQJdWNYMWnakSyhpmIvGaGeIfQt3ErWSCKOrcy9rRO4nCZSu5ZRICnp62f0NW2sonk4CRA_RSRmZjRF3z_rUroemVJRUxR13939hR-mF9jbSLAW3TOr7NiAgTB0kUXZ33fDi1XW_hHzgCvAR-_3V7cGaiYlnp_j9ZVCOW7KHioorCCVWlP0f9nDvxKlaqYI2TxIDu1E3KAI_ODZGEIPOfV9lcICg39daOHbOu2o1c9DF6DLbLVYpwiQBbe0R5nxKKhjuFCs8LqdkkgYWfly-j4jHshVtySt6oTs7iejw&smid=share-url?utm_source=digg

Bart Harley Jarvis · PostSep 23, 2022#3542022-09-23T13:40+00:00

Baltimore Jack wrote: ↑
Sep 22, 2022
The GOP in STL needs to be ashamed

This is evergreen.

quincunx · PostOct 21, 2022#3552022-10-21T11:34+00:00

Maybe drivers can pool their $10s of income tax cuts to hire snow plow drivers to help out

KSDK - MoDOT and IDOT facing staff shortages ahead of winter season
MoDOT said if a widespread winter storm lasts longer than one 12-hour shift, they won’t have enough employees to fill the trucks on the second shift.

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local ... a301025801

MarkHaversham · PostOct 22, 2022#3562022-10-22T02:04+00:00

quincunx wrote: ↑
Oct 21, 2022
Maybe drivers can pool their $10s of income tax cuts to hire snow plow drivers to help out

KSDK - MoDOT and IDOT facing staff shortages ahead of winter season
MoDOT said if a widespread winter storm lasts longer than one 12-hour shift, they won’t have enough employees to fill the trucks on the second shift.

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local ... a301025801

If it snows during the winter COVID surge we'll be lucky if they can staff one shift.

chriss752 · PostNov 05, 2022#3572022-11-05T05:18+00:00

I don't recall seeing a national politics thread, but it's whatever. This thread is good enough to ask this question: What are people's predictions for what'll happen on Tuesday? I predict Republicans pick up the House but that the Senate goes either way. And whichever way it'll go will be no more that 52-48 for either side.

Democrat Senate scenario: They pick up Pennsylvania and Ohio and hold onto Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
Republican Senate scenario: They pick up Georgia and Nevada while holding onto Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

I'd personally be shocked if either picks up more than two senate seats.

Back here in Missouri...

I think Trudy Busch loses by 8-12 points. Not as bad as what Nicole Galloway lost when she ran for governor in 2020, but it still won't be pretty. Reason why I think she'll perform better is because she portrays herself to be much more moderate and some of my moderate family members and friends are voting for her over Eric Schmitt.
I think Amendment 3 (marijuana legalization) narrowly passes.
Cori Bush and Ann Wagner will both be easily re-elected.

In St. Louis City...

Jack Coatar narrowly defeats Megan Green in the special election for President of the Board of Aldermen 52-48 (worst case 51-49, best case 55-45). Both candidates will then immediately announce that they're running for a full term.

In St. Louis County...

Sam Page defeats Mark Mantovani 54-46 (worst case 51-49, best case 60-40). It all really ends up depending on turnout in different parts of the county. If there's higher turnout in the south and west portions of the county, then it'll be a closer race. Higher turnout in central and north county means a wider win margin for Page.
If Mantovani squeaks out a win, it would be barely over 50%. Think of it as if it was 2014 - Stenger (137,638 votes - 50.32%) vs Stream (135,870 votes - 49.68%). I reckon that it's all about turnout in different parts of the county.
Turnout will also play a role in whether Dennis Hancock wins the County Council seat being vacated by Tim Fitch. He's up against Vicki Englund. I expect that to be close too.

Bring on election night! Sure to be an exciting one for people who are really into politics.

leeharveyawesome · PostNov 06, 2022#3582022-11-06T00:34+00:00

Missouri NAACP asks voters to vote NO on marijuana amendment.

https://fox2now.com/news/missouri-naacp ... amendment/

MarkHaversham · PostNov 06, 2022#3592022-11-06T04:54+00:00

chriss752 wrote: ↑
Nov 05, 2022
I don't recall seeing a national politics thread, but it's whatever. This thread is good enough to ask this question: What are people's predictions for what'll happen on Tuesday? I predict Republicans pick up the House but that the Senate goes either way. And whichever way it'll go will be no more that 52-48 for either side.

Democrat Senate scenario: They pick up Pennsylvania and Ohio and hold onto Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.

Republican Senate scenario: They pick up Georgia and Nevada while holding onto Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

I'd personally be shocked if either picks up more than two senate seats.

I'm guessing the GOP picks up four seats in the Senate.

Miss Shell · PostNov 07, 2022#3602022-11-07T02:25+00:00

leeharveyawesome wrote:Missouri NAACP asks voters to vote NO on marijuana amendment.

https://fox2now.com/news/missouri-naacp ... amendment/

So they want us to keep it illegal and not expunge criminal records. Yeah, that's the better option... /s

Sent from my LM-V600 using Tapatalk

dbInSouthCity · PostNov 07, 2022#3612022-11-07T13:42+00:00

^no but this amendment is bad

MarkHaversham · PostNov 07, 2022#3622022-11-07T17:35+00:00

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑
Nov 07, 2022
^no but this amendment is bad

It's not clear to me from the link what their issue is, just that it doesn't guarantee diverse marijuana business ownership? I mean, that's a good thing to have but I dunno if we should keep marijuana illegal on that basis. Should we make white-owned Facebook illegal? Actually I'm back on board.

PostNov 07, 2022#3632022-11-07T17:36+00:00

It occurred to me today that I see tons of yard signs for local state house/senate candidates, but the only county and federal senate signs I see are for Republicans. That's probably not a good sign for national Dems.

Baltimore Jack · PostNov 07, 2022#3642022-11-07T17:51+00:00

^I've seen lots of Trudy Busch Valentine signs, not only in the city and county where I would expect but also in St. Charles. And I literally have not seen any Schmitt yard signs--only a handful of those big ones on commercial lots.

I don't portend to know what will happen tomorrow. I think the polls are really having a tough time with the cell phone age. I haven't noticed any lack of enthusiasm from those who were outraged by the Dobbs decision.

I don't expect someone who falsely claims "both sides" to have the most accurate feel of the national climate though.

Bart Harley Jarvis · PostNov 07, 2022#3652022-11-07T18:53+00:00

Baltimore Jack wrote: ↑
Nov 07, 2022
^I've seen lots of Trudy Busch Valentine signs, not only in the city and county where I would expect but also in St. Charles. And I literally have not seen any Schmitt yard signs--only a handful of those big ones on commercial lots.

I don't portend to know what will happen tomorrow. I think the polls are really having a tough time with the cell phone age. I haven't noticed any lack of enthusiasm from those who were outraged by the Dobbs decision.

I don't expect someone who falsely claims "both sides" to have the most accurate feel of the national climate though.

I've notice the same trend in Iowa - more residential signs seem to be in favor of Dem candidates, more businesses have Rep candidate signs.

Last weekend, we went up to the Wisconsin Dells for quick waterpark weekend and even in rural Wisconsin, I noticed a lot more Evers/Barnes signs than whoever/Ron Johnson signs. Mostly in farms. Granted, we did drive through the outer parts of Dane Co to get there, which is where Madison is located.

Baltimore Jack · PostNov 08, 2022#3662022-11-08T14:33+00:00

Were STL City and County the only jurisdictions of the state to do no excuse absentee voting for 2 weeks prior to the election or did they have that outstate too?

dbInSouthCity · PostNov 08, 2022#3672022-11-08T14:59+00:00

Entire state

Baltimore Jack · PostNov 08, 2022#3682022-11-08T15:55+00:00

^OK thanks. I know STL city and County really got the word out about early voting and I know a lot of people who took advantage of it. I voted first thing this AM and it was a long line, though it moved quick, at Girls and Boys Club in the newfangled 8th ward.

dbInSouthCity · PostNov 08, 2022#3692022-11-08T16:36+00:00

GOP takes the House by flipping about 20 seats (+/-3) (no where close to the usual midterm wave of 40 that the party out of power has done the last 2 decades worth of midterms)
Senate is going to come down to Pa, if Fetterman beats Oz, it will probably stay at 50/50

chriss752 · PostNov 09, 2022#3702022-11-09T04:47+00:00

chriss752 wrote: ↑
Nov 05, 2022
I don't recall seeing a national politics thread, but it's whatever. This thread is good enough to ask this question: What are people's predictions for what'll happen on Tuesday? I predict Republicans pick up the House but that the Senate goes either way. And whichever way it'll go will be no more that 52-48 for either side.

Democrat Senate scenario: They pick up Pennsylvania and Ohio and hold onto Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.

Republican Senate scenario: They pick up Georgia and Nevada while holding onto Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

I'd personally be shocked if either picks up more than two senate seats.

Back here in Missouri...

I think Trudy Busch loses by 8-12 points. Not as bad as what Nicole Galloway lost when she ran for governor in 2020, but it still won't be pretty. Reason why I think she'll perform better is because she portrays herself to be much more moderate and some of my moderate family members and friends are voting for her over Eric Schmitt.

I think Amendment 3 (marijuana legalization) narrowly passes.

Cori Bush and Ann Wagner will both be easily re-elected.

In St. Louis City...

Jack Coatar narrowly defeats Megan Green in the special election for President of the Board of Aldermen 52-48 (worst case 51-49, best case 55-45). Both candidates will then immediately announce that they're running for a full term.

In St. Louis County...

Sam Page defeats Mark Mantovani 54-46 (worst case 51-49, best case 60-40). It all really ends up depending on turnout in different parts of the county. If there's higher turnout in the south and west portions of the county, then it'll be a closer race. Higher turnout in central and north county means a wider win margin for Page.

If Mantovani squeaks out a win, it would be barely over 50%. Think of it as if it was 2014 - Stenger (137,638 votes - 50.32%) vs Stream (135,870 votes - 49.68%). I reckon that it's all about turnout in different parts of the county.

Turnout will also play a role in whether Dennis Hancock wins the County Council seat being vacated by Tim Fitch. He's up against Vicki Englund. I expect that to be close too.

Bring on election night! Sure to be an exciting one for people who are really into politics.

My estimates aren't too bad...

Trudy Busch Valentine is currently losing by 12.2% to Eric Schmitt with 74% in.
Amendment 3 is narrowly winning with 53.4% at 74% in. Seems to be on track for a narrow win
Cori Bush and Ann Wagner easily won their own re-elections.
Sam Page won, but was just over 51%. Mark Mantovani was at 45.95%. Mantovani did pretty good all things considered, but didn't come close to matching Rick Stream's 2014 result. Interestingly, more votes were cast for County Executive this time around (Page got 188,966 votes and Mantovani got 168,475 votes) despite lower turnout than 2014.
Dennis Hancock won by a 4.63% margin. He replaces Tim Fitch and keeps the power balance on the County Council at 4-3.

Where I didn't do too well...

Megan Green won by just over a 10.3% margin.

Where it's undecided....

It seems Democrats will pick up Pennsylvania, but they lost Ohio. Will they hold onto their other seats and therefore get a Senate majority? We shall see.

Baltimore Jack · PostNov 09, 2022#3712022-11-09T14:55+00:00

Not a red wave. Not even a red ripple. Independent voters gave Democrats the edge. Almost unheard of in midterms, especially ones where inflation and the economy are top concerns. House control is on the razor's edge when Republicans were expecting to win it back outright with a 15-20 seat padding. The Senate is highly likely to stay Democratic with Arizona almost out of reach for Republicans and they lost PA (OH was a hold for them). Wisconsin is very close but likely to stay GOP. Nevada still has a lot of vote out in Clark County so giving the edge to the Democrats to keep that one too.

Also in the MO leg the Democrats picked up 5 seats.

STLEnginerd · PostNov 09, 2022#3722022-11-09T15:59+00:00

The Megan Green win is interesting. Defied a lot of expectations on the forum for a very close contest. Any assessment of what was under/overestimated.

Turnout...?
Enthusiasm...?
Female vote...?
Black Vote...?

Overall, I am amazed that Economy/Inflation didn't drive the predicted red wave materialize to give the country back to the republicans. That prediction felt right to me based on my anecdotal exchanges with people so still surprised. Not that they deserve it, but they should have had a good night. Missouri Republican were lucky (or smart) to pick Schmidt. It looks likely Greitens vs. Busch Valentine would have gone to Busch Valentine.

Baltimore Jack · PostNov 09, 2022#3732022-11-09T16:31+00:00

^Actually as someone who supported Coatar the histrionics from some of his supporters about crime might have turned off voters who were on the fence. This was a special election for a four month stint as BOA President and people acted like Jack losing was going to doom the city.

Just my thought right now. We'll have to see where the race was won or lost when precinct level data comes out.

MarkHaversham · PostNov 09, 2022#3742022-11-09T16:31+00:00

I guess we'll see what the exit polls say about the whys.

dbInSouthCity · PostNov 09, 2022#3752022-11-09T16:45+00:00

8% inflation, $5 gas most of summer and the only reason democrats don’t keep the house is because the botched NY State re districting. That’s all you need to know what voters think of Trupublicans.

Look what happened in Northern states, democrats flipped the Michigan state house and senate and kept the Gov, AG, SoS. Kept WI governor, flipped a red senate seat in Pa, blew out the PA gov race.

Missouri State Gov't & Politics

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