Nobody cares about leeharveyawesome and his friends using financial aid to give each other COVID.
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Start buying party ballons for cardinals spring training and the pandemic is over party for March https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 3/fulltext
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dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022Start buying party ballons for cardinals spring training and the pandemic is over party for March https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 3/fulltext
In other words, by "end of pandemic" they mean "we're going to stop doing anything about it + pretend that people will start masking and receiving updated vaccines".The impacts of future SARS-CoV-2 transmission on health, however, will be less because of broad previous exposure to the virus, regularly adapted vaccines to new antigens or variants, the advent of antivirals, and the knowledge that the vulnerable can protect themselves during future waves when needed by using high-quality masks and physical distancing. COVID-19 will become another recurrent disease that health systems and societies will have to manage. For example, the death toll from omicron seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated the worse influenza season during the past decade in 2017–18 caused about 52 000 influenza deaths with a likely peak of more than 1500 deaths per day.
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The era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over. After the omicron wave, COVID-19 will return but the pandemic will not.
It also seems like they're likening COVID to a bad influenza season by comparing daily deaths, while ignoring that COVID season is year-round. Well, there is some periodicity to COVID but even the troughs in COVID deaths are comparable to a normal flu season.
Interesting that they are comparing "most countries COVID" to "Northern countries flu", I wonder why that is. Seems a little sloppy.the death toll from omicron seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries
I find myself seriously wondering if horrible outcomes are something that you actually want to see happen. Or maybe need to see happen, for whatever reason. You respond to literally every post that offers anything resembling a potentially optimistic outlook on this godforsaken pandemic with "Yeah, but..." negativity.MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Jan 18, 2022This is the likeliest outcome but there are a couple possible alternatives:Ebsy wrote: ↑Jan 17, 2022Judging by the numbers provided by the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force we have reached a peak in hospitalization, suggesting that new infections peaked around 2 weeks ago. If we follow the observed pattern from elsewhere, should start to see a rapid decline in cases.
- Delta might reappear quickly if cross-variant immunity is low
- Omicron might reinfect quickly enough that the next wave restarts in a few weeks instead of a few months
You are Eeyore.
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For the win. I’ve never seen someone so quick to post “yeah but” negativity re Covid. It will be gone by March, Mark.- 1,868
I could understand this kind of posting in, like, May 2020, but this is just silly. I've been right about everything for 2 years while the mainstream has been consistently wrong. I don't understand the pollyannish need to post "yeah but this time everything will magically get better" every time I point out the obvious outcome.DTGstl314 wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022I find myself seriously wondering if horrible outcomes are something that you actually want to see happen. Or maybe need to see happen, for whatever reason. You respond to literally every post that offers anything resembling a potentially optimistic outlook on this godforsaken pandemic with "Yeah, but..." negativity.MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Jan 18, 2022This is the likeliest outcome but there are a couple possible alternatives:Ebsy wrote: ↑Jan 17, 2022Judging by the numbers provided by the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force we have reached a peak in hospitalization, suggesting that new infections peaked around 2 weeks ago. If we follow the observed pattern from elsewhere, should start to see a rapid decline in cases.
- Delta might reappear quickly if cross-variant immunity is low
- Omicron might reinfect quickly enough that the next wave restarts in a few weeks instead of a few months
You are Eeyore.
I mean obviously I can't win with predictions here, because I'm either wrong or I'm still living in hell. Regardless, I'm going to keep posting the facts because I hate how the media uses the public's ignorance of statistics to gaslight them.
The kicker here is that you're responding to one of my more optimistic posts! I was just pointing out a couple reasons why people should still be cautious. The primary reason we have a million dead Americans right now is that we spent two years using baseless optimism as an excuse to do nothing.
It's not pessimistic to say a gambler is going to lose all his money, if his strategy is to keep going all-in until he runs out of money. The best possible outcome for 2022 is that the wave subsides, and then we all rip off our masks and roll the dice again.whitherSTL wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022⬆ For the win. I’ve never seen someone so quick to post “yeah but” negativity re Covid. It will be gone by March, Mark.
Edit: The best impossible outcome is that the most infectious disease in human history suddenly disappears for no reason.
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Ah, yes. It's Mark that's the problem. March it is. Everyone do nothing different and it will go away.whitherSTL wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022
It's not the most infectious disease in human history.MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022It's not pessimistic to say a gambler is going to lose all his money, if his strategy is to keep going all-in until he runs out of money. The best possible outcome for 2022 is that the wave subsides, and then we all rip off our masks and roll the dice again.whitherSTL wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022⬆ For the win. I’ve never seen someone so quick to post “yeah but” negativity re Covid. It will be gone by March, Mark.
Edit: The best impossible outcome is that the most infectious disease in human history suddenly disappears for no reason.
It's that kind of over-the-top histrionic rhetoric that makes it hard to take you seriously. COVID-19 is the worst pandemic any of us have ever experienced in our lifetimes, but it is far from the most infectious disease in human history. With all due respect, tuberculosis and the bubonic plague would both like to say, "That's adorable, hold my beer."
And no, saying that it's not the most infectious disease in human history is not equivalent to saying that it's no big deal. It is a big deal. Acknowledged. It's worse than most people expected it to be, and it has dragged on longer than most people expected it to drag on. It's not clear yet when it will end. I don't agree with whitherSTL's assessment that it will be "gone by March", though I do imagine we'll see the daily infections, hospitalizations, and deaths decrease as we head into the spring months. But I'm telling you, it will eventually end. And by "end" I don't necessarily mean that COVID-19 disappears and nobody ever gets infected again, but that it will become relatively manageable in the same way that the seasonal flu is relatively manageable. When exactly that will happen, I don't know. I'm not going to predict a specific point in which that will happen, because we really don't know yet. But I fully believe that life will go back to some semblance of normal eventually. COVID-19 will likely become an endemic that we'll have to navigate around, in which case it will be even more important for people to get vaccinated and get booster shots as necessary, and those who willingly choose not to keep up with their vaccinations will be on their own. And I'm not going to lose one second of sleep over any willfully unvaccinated idiot who gets infected and dies. They did it to themselves. I read a story this morning about some antivax idiot folk singer in the Czech Republic who deliberately got herself infected, and then died. To me, it's no different than if she chugged a fifth of vodka, put on a blindfold, and decided to try driving at 90mph on a mountain road. She did it to herself. She committed suicide.
And if the absolute worst case scenario imaginable plays out and an ultra contagious strain with a 100% fatality rate emerges and we all die, well, so be it. We had a good run.
But I don't really worry about that happening, just as I don't really worry about whether or not a bolt of lightning will strike me dead every time I happen to be outside when it starts raining.
But you're not right about everything. Case in point...MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022I've been right about everything for 2 years while the mainstream has been consistently wrong. I don't understand the pollyannish need to post "yeah but this time everything will magically get better" every time I point out the obvious outcome.
You literally say here that we have "done nothing".MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022The primary reason we have a million dead Americans right now is that we spent two years using baseless optimism as an excuse to do nothing.
Do you realize that roughly 2/3 of all Americans have been fully vaccinated, and 3/4 of all Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine? Is that "nothing"?
When you go to any Schnucks in the city, are most people wearing facial coverings or not? I can only speak from my own experience, but right now, I'd say between 75-80% of people are masking in grocery stores in STL right now. Is that "nothing"?
If you want to make the case that we aren't doing enough, fine. Then make that case. Should our vaccination numbers be higher than what they are? Yes. Would it be better if more people were wearing well-fitting N-95 masks in grocery stores right now? Absolutely.
But when you characterize the very tangible actions that people have been taking as if it is no better than if we had literally been doing nothing at all (meaning zero vaccinations, zero masks, zero mitigation tactics), it is f**king exasperating. Most people are well intentioned, and most people are putting forth good faith efforts to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Could a lot of us be doing a little more than what we're currently doing? Probably. But stop arguing that nobody is doing anything, because it does not incentivize anybody to do anything. Because it is quite provably a completely bullsh*t claim.
I truly think your heart is in the right place. And if I had my choice of person to hang out with between somebody who comes across as overly concerned about COVID-19 and somebody who thinks the pandemic is all a hoax, I would choose to hang with the overly concerned person. If everybody in charge was as concerned about the pandemic as you clearly are, maybe we would be in a better spot right now. But that's not the hand we've been dealt. So we work with what we've got. For myself, that means being vaccinated, being boosted, exercising caution when out in crowded indoor public places (ie masking), and encouraging others to get vaccinated and exercise good judgment on mitigation tactics. Beyond that, I just don't spend a ton of time worrying about it. It's very unfortunate that a lot of stupid people who think this is all a scam have gotten themselves sick, hospitalized, and dead, but I'm done getting stressed out about it. I'm going to live my life, and I'm not going to spend all my energy obsessing about a pandemic that is out of my control.
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What are you basing this post on? Tuberculosis and the bubonic plague both have R0 values around 1-2. Spanish Flu was 2-3. Even the original COVID19 variant had an R0 value of 2-3, Delta has an R0 of 6-7 and Omicron is in the 10-15 range. That's Measles and Chickenpox territory, but much more lethal and vaccine-escaping. That's why COVID will not just be "like the flu" anytime soon, except in the sense that everyone in charge tries not to think about it.DTGstl314 wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022It's not the most infectious disease in human history.MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022It's not pessimistic to say a gambler is going to lose all his money, if his strategy is to keep going all-in until he runs out of money. The best possible outcome for 2022 is that the wave subsides, and then we all rip off our masks and roll the dice again.whitherSTL wrote: ↑Jan 20, 2022⬆ For the win. I’ve never seen someone so quick to post “yeah but” negativity re Covid. It will be gone by March, Mark.
Edit: The best impossible outcome is that the most infectious disease in human history suddenly disappears for no reason.
It's that kind of over-the-top histrionic rhetoric that makes it hard to take you seriously. COVID-19 is the worst pandemic any of us have ever experienced in our lifetimes, but it is far from the most infectious disease in human history. With all due respect, tuberculosis and the bubonic plague would both like to say, "That's adorable, hold my beer."
That's also, incidentally, why you need to wear a well-fit N95 to avoid it, not just wrap a scarf over your beard.
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Denmark becomes first EU country to scrap all COVID-19 restrictions
https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-becomes-first-eu-country-to-scrap-all-covid-19-restrictions/
https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-becomes-first-eu-country-to-scrap-all-covid-19-restrictions/
That is the trend in Europe, even if not officially stated by the national governments: letting most restrictions fade out at this point.
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Governments to elderly and immunocompromised: your deaths don't matter.kipfilet wrote: ↑Jan 26, 2022That is the trend in Europe, even if not officially stated by the national governments: letting most restrictions fade out at this point.
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It’s a very simple risk assessment. Staying lockdown does more damageMarkHaversham wrote: ↑Jan 26, 2022Governments to elderly and immunocompromised: your deaths don't matter.kipfilet wrote: ↑Jan 26, 2022That is the trend in Europe, even if not officially stated by the national governments: letting most restrictions fade out at this point.
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Denmark wasn't under lockdown, it had mask mandates and some capacity limits. Did they ever have an actual lockdown?dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jan 27, 2022It’s a very simple risk assessment. Staying lockdown does more damage
So what I'm reading on BA.2 is:
- it almost definitely spreads even faster (!!)
- it may cause more severe outcomes in babies
- it's not clear why, but it's still rising rapidly in some areas with high infection rates of BA.1, so improved reinfection is a possibility
- it almost definitely spreads even faster (!!)
- it may cause more severe outcomes in babies
- it's not clear why, but it's still rising rapidly in some areas with high infection rates of BA.1, so improved reinfection is a possibility
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Skimming through his backlog I noticed this timely tweet on Denmark:dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jan 31, 2022
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Merchants of herd death oversold immunity. People are being reinfected immediately again after Omicron infection
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1487814184104517632
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1487814184104517632
Even if this is the case (one study being presented by what appears to be a source with a bone to pick) what exactly is to be done?chris fuller wrote: ↑Feb 02, 2022Merchants of herd death oversold immunity. People are being reinfected immediately again after Omicron infection
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1487814184104517632
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Implement sensible masking and quarantine policies that limit the spread of the disease, per the recommendations of 90% of epidemiologists. If you want to get really radical, implement the sort of worker sick leave and health care policies that all developed nations have.Ebsy wrote: ↑Feb 03, 2022Even if this is the case (one study being presented by what appears to be a source with a bone to pick) what exactly is to be done?chris fuller wrote: ↑Feb 02, 2022Merchants of herd death oversold immunity. People are being reinfected immediately again after Omicron infection
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1487814184104517632
Do 90% of epidemiologists still suggest those measures given the changes in how the coronavirus spreads? I would honestly doubt that is the case.
As to sick leave, of course we should do that on its own merits.
As to sick leave, of course we should do that on its own merits.
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The only change to how the coronavirus spreads is that it spreads more easily, which makes masks even more important. I haven't seen a recent survey, but I also haven't seen a single epidemiologist use "easier spread" as a reason to loosen restrictions, only the opposite.Ebsy wrote: ↑Feb 03, 2022Do 90% of epidemiologists still suggest those measures given the changes in how the coronavirus spreads? I would honestly doubt that is the case.
Edit: I honestly don't understand your statement. When road conditions get dangerous do you stop wearing your seat belt? I don't get it.
Changing conditions should lead to changing advice, which it has in this case. The consensus (from the all knowing epidemiologists) is that masking is mostly kabuki theater, especially when access to N95s is as limited as it is and the vast majority of people are wearing cloth/surgical masks or worse. It may make you feel safer but it doesn't actually meaningfully prevent the spread of the coronavirus.MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Feb 03, 2022The only change to how the coronavirus spreads is that it spreads more easily, which makes masks even more important. I haven't seen a recent survey, but I also haven't seen a single epidemiologist use "easier spread" as a reason to loosen restrictions, only the opposite.Ebsy wrote: ↑Feb 03, 2022Do 90% of epidemiologists still suggest those measures given the changes in how the coronavirus spreads? I would honestly doubt that is the case.
Edit: I honestly don't understand your statement. When road conditions get dangerous do you stop wearing your seat belt? I don't get it.
Given the above, and the knowledge that halting economic activity (the only way to institute a quarantine is to have the vast majority of people not go to work) was not effective at preventing a pandemic scale outbreak in every country on earth, what exactly is left to be done?