urbanSTL

^ West End also had the Gotham last decade and possibly some of the WashU folks in that mixed-use development on Delmar may be cityside. Also a bit of new homes from Vatterot and some rehabs of long vacants.  West End also grew 2000-2010 and I expect that to continue.
 
Columbus Square had some new replacement housing come online from the Cochran public housing redevelopment.  Vandeventer was fueled by North Sarah development... and iirc in 2010 some of those residents were in Blumeyer public housing in Covenant Blu-Grand Center, which may help account for population loss in that neighborhood.  Vandeventer also should continue to grow with Ranken and other developments as well as general rehabs of 2020 vacants.

Demographic changes by neighborhood were significant in the last decade, though the trends varied a ton depending on the area. A few trends that stuck out:

The western neighborhoods just north of Delmar all saw growth in their white populations and became more diverse after previously being almost all black:

• West End 2010: 84.9% Black, 8.1% White, 1.5% Asian, 3.8% Latino
• West End 2020: 71.5% Black, 10.5% White, 6.8% Asian, 7.7% Latino
• Lewis Place 2010: 92.2% Black, 5.3% White
• Lewis Place 2020: 84.5% Black, 11.8% White
• Visitation 2010: 90.4% Black, 5.8% White
• Visitation 2020: 77.6% Black, 18.1% White

The neighborhoods around Forest Park saw significant growth in their Asian populations, with the highest percentages in the City:

• Central West End 2020: 13.7% Asian, up from 11.1% in 2010
• Skinker Debaliviere 2020: 13.2% Asian, up from 8.7% in 2010
• Wydown/Skinker 2020: 18.5% Asian, up from 7.5% in 2010

The historically mostly black neighborhoods between Chouteau and I-44 saw significant black flight and falling percentages:

• Forest Park Southeast 2020: 36.1% Black, down from 64.3% in 2010
• Botanical Heights 2020: 50.0% Black, down from 74.4% in 2010
• Tiffany 2020: 62.5% Black, down from 84.1% in 2010

The southeast City neighborhoods had large white flights, with the neighborhoods that drew in more Latinos and Asians like Dutchtown seeing lower population declines overall:

• Bevo 2010: 72.2% White, 13.8% Black, 4.6% Asian, 7.5% Latino
• Bevo 2020: 58.3% White, 20.6% Black, 4.8% Asian, 11.6% Latino
• Dutchtown 2010: 35.5% White, 50.8% Black, 6.0% Asian, 9.0% Latino
• Dutchtown 2020: 26.0% White, 50.7% Black, 7.0% Asian, 12.1% Latino
• Carondelet 2010: 57.3% White, 33.8% Black, 1.3% Asian, 4.5% Latino
• Carondelet 2020: 43.1% White, 39.3% Black, 1.5% Asian, 9.6% Latino

The neighborhoods around Tower Grover Park whitened for the most part:

• Shaw 2020: 66.2% White, up from 51.7% in 2010
• TGE 2020: 55.6% White, up from 46.0% in 2010
• TGS 2020: 57.6% White, up from 54.9% in 2010

Downtown, Midtown were an exception to black flight in the City, growing more diverse as they grew in population overall:

• Midtown 2010: 61.9% White, 25.8% Black, 9.2% Asian, 2.8% Latino
• Midtown 2020: 47.7% White, 34.7% Black, 9.7% Asian, 3.9% Latino
• Downtown 2010: 53.5% White, 37.1% Black, 5.4% Asian, 2.9% Latino
• Downtown 2020: 43.3% White, 44.2% Black, 4.4% Asian, 4.4% Latino
• Downtown West 2010: 56.3% White, 36.9% Black, 3.7% Asian, 2.6% Latino
• Downtown West 2020: 46.2% White, 41.0% Black, 4.0% Asian, 4.8% Latino

Almost every neighborhood had growth in the population of 2+ races, and most saw rises in their Latino populations. Southwest City remained overwhelmingly White and most of North City almost all Black. 

I was interested in seeing how St. Louis compared to peers and cities in close geographic range with the latest 2020 Census.  To do this, I pulled raw data from the Census Bureau website and selected the following metro areas for comparison:

Chicago

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Detroit

Indianapolis

Kansas City

Louisville

Memphis

Milwaukee

Minneapolis-St. Paul

Nashville

Omaha

Once downloaded I analyzed and graphed data within Excel to come up with what I found to be some interesting trends.  I thought that many on this board might be interested to see and so I decided to share.

The first and perhaps most obvious piece of data was to look at raw population changes.  For this data I pulled data using MSA, or Metropolitan Statistical Area.  I excluded Chicago in this particular graph since its population is so far above the other regions that it made the data difficult to read.

St. Louis is highlighted in yellow.  The first item I observed was despite our stagnant population growth, we are still one of the largest metropolitan areas in the Midwest and amongst other rust belt cities.  Minneapolis-St. Paul is on a trajectory to surpass Detroit in 20-30 years.  Kansas City will soon surpass Cincinnati and threaten to overtake St. Louis as a larger region in a similar timeframe.  I hadn't realized the level of growth KC is seeing as a region - something interesting given that we share a state with the same economic policies and party.

The next two graphs provide some further detail.  They both show how the population grew for each city within each year in the past decade.  The first shows raw growth numbers, and the second shows the rate of growth per year.  Again, these use MSA numbers.

Not surprisingly, Nashville showed the strongest growth and stood out by itself.  Indy, Omaha, Minn-St. Paul, KC, and Cincy all showed solid growth.  At Memphis is where I start to see a trend of decreasing growth followed by cities with population decreases.  St. Louis falls in the middle of this.  What surprised me was the severity of decline Chicago saw in the latter half of the decade.
Focusing on St. Louis we saw growth through 2015.  In 2016, 2018 and 2019 we actually saw a small population decline.  The downtrend is consistent across all the other cities as well, with Chicago and Cleveland seeing this occur a year earlier and at a more severe rate.  

That's all to share for now.  In some future posts I'll dig deeper into the different demographics of the population changes, as well as in comparison to each cities "core" county.  
Appreciate any feedback or insights you might have!

Yeah, why are you crunching numbers you're interested in?! You should be crunching numbers sc is interested in. /s

OnTheEdge wrote:Yeah, why are you crunching numbers you're interested in?! You should be crunching numbers sc is interested in. /s

Thought the same thing! Kind of bogus comment!


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If we get over the city/county division we can have similar growth to KC. Quickly

^Boom goes the dynamite.

St. Louis on the Air: Missouri has entered ‘demographic winter,’ with more people dying than being born

Spoiler Alert: It's stuffed full of depressing facts for us fans of the STL.  On the flip side, I suppose admitting you have a problem and taking a self inventory is a step on the road to recovery.  :shrug:

The day I hear the MO GOP say that we need to bring more minorities into Missouri I'll eat my sock

pattimagee wrote: ↑

Nov 15, 2021

Wow, Delaware. 

Delaware is an affordable housing market, and when I lived there received a lot of transplants from Long Island, New Jersey and PA.  New Castle County is in the Philly CSA and they have 3 stops on the SEPTA heavy rail line, aside from also being on the Amtrak line.  Wilmington is also a pretty big business enter (not sure if it is still the banking capital with all the mergers.  I left Delaware in 2001.  It is also, under normal driving conditions, about 2 hours to DC, NYC the PA mountains and the beaches.  Location, location, location.

When are pop numbers for cities less than 5,000 released?

Black families in St. Louis are leaving in droves. What’s causing the mass exodus?
https://news.stlpublicradio.org/race-identity-faith/2021-12-16/black-families-in-st-louis-are-leaving-in-droves-whats-causing-the-mass-exodus

I'm thinking the 2020s will be kinder to St. Louis for black population numbers than the 2010s were. 

There's a lot of work that St. Louis City and County can do to make themselves more welcoming to our black residents. There is no reason St. Louis can't be an epicenter of black living in the Midwest. 

We could start with art and symbols around town. I'd like to see something done near Eads Bridge to honor the 1917 race riots in East St. Louis, Illinois. 

Ask and you shall receive

StlToday  New housing, mortgage fund underway for low-income St. Louis neighborhoods

The city’s economic development arm is launching a new $15 million loan fund to spur development and mortgage activity in neighborhoods that traditional lenders have tended to avoid.

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/gov ... 71fef.html

quincunx wrote: ↑

Dec 16, 2021

Ask and you shall receive

StlToday  New housing, mortgage fund underway for low-income St. Louis neighborhoods

The city’s economic development arm is launching a new $15 million loan fund to spur development and mortgage activity in neighborhoods that traditional lenders have tended to avoid.

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/gov ... 71fef.html

I will add two more that I believe would be high on the list.   Workforce Development and Safety.   At the end of day, families want to find a way to support themselves but also feel safe in their surroundings.   Workforce development would not only be huge for the African American community but the city as whole.   Undoubtly safety is an issue for everyone  so it is great to think long term on what leads to drug trafficking & so on but throwing resources at and getting handle on crime in near term is huge.    

So city can do a lot in keeping more people from leaving in the near term with Restore Act funds from helping with home ownership (wealth creation), filling jobs by help community build skills and a feeling that crime trends are headed south..

I think workforce development is overrated. I met people who did the green jobs training as part of the Stimulus legislation passed in 2009 who couldn't find jobs after completing the training. Needs to be apprentice-ship style to actually get people jobs. 

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