^ It says a lot that "slowest decline" is the best we've done in seven decades. Lol.
- 805
Well, Ray Hartmann claimed today that we have dropped well below 300k for 2020. Cited this as his source. https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-ci ... population
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
^ What difference does it make lol? I'd also base my estimates off of official Census estimates...not worldpopultaionreview.com.
We all knew this was coming. Until the region screws its head on straight the core is going to keep shrinking.
We all knew this was coming. Until the region screws its head on straight the core is going to keep shrinking.
Metrostl - 'Black flight' is new, troubling problem for St. Louis
https://metrostl.com/2020/07/06/black-f ... -st-louis/
https://metrostl.com/2020/07/06/black-f ... -st-louis/
^ Thanks for sharing, I actually wasn't familiar with that site. Good read too. I saw this underneath the article you posted and thought it was pretty interesting too, though it was from last year. Jaco thinks it possible the city could bottom out around 280,000 and then start growing from there...but as he mentioned, that's a guess.
https://metrostl.com/2019/03/05/st-loui ... hats-next/
https://metrostl.com/2019/03/05/st-loui ... hats-next/
Even though the diaspora rate has slowed slightly, it still seems a good bet that by the time the 2020 census rolls around, St. Louis will drop below 300,000 population for the first time since 1864. But with the rate of loss slowing down, it’s also a good bet that the city’s population could stabilize at around 280,000, and then possibly start increasing again. That, of course, is a guess.
What’s not guesswork is that the city has actually become three cities. Much of the North Side is pockets of residents trying to keep their blocks and neighborhoods intact despite the wreckage left behind by racism, redlining, and disinvestment. The South Side is mostly intact, and more-or-less stable. Gentrified neighborhoods are just blocks from dilapidated structures where low-income residents struggle to pay next month’s rent.
The Central Corridor is booming mini-Seattle, with tech, research, shops, restaurants, new development, housing, Cortex, and a $300 million investment from Washington University.
- 3,433
Is it black flight? Or family flight. I'd like to see more details. Black population has been going down in the city since 1970 -- for 50 years. I'm not sure it's folks are physically moving out. Over a 50 year span, It may be that older residents die, and their adult kids choose to buy their first home in the suburbs where schools are better and crime is lower.
I guess they're just putting "new" in the title to try and get clicks. Black flight isn't a new issue in St. Louis (s Gary mentioned), nor is it presented as one in the article.quincunx wrote: ↑Jul 06, 2020Metrostl - 'Black flight' is new, troubling problem for St. Louis
https://metrostl.com/2020/07/06/black-f ... -st-louis/
Or census tract or ZIP code?
KSDK - Report: St. Louis is America's fastest-shrinking city
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local ... 6f82e90f84
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local ... 6f82e90f84
Self-response rates are in and are not great:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/us.c ... sDashboard
County at 75.8%, City at 53.9%
I guess that in normal circumstances this could be partly compensated by door-to-door activity, but not during the pandemic.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/us.c ... sDashboard
County at 75.8%, City at 53.9%
I guess that in normal circumstances this could be partly compensated by door-to-door activity, but not during the pandemic.
- 1,610
Genuine question. If they know that the County is at 75.8%, then don't they know what 100% is? If so, what's the point of the Census?kipfilet wrote: ↑Oct 21, 2020Self-response rates are in and are not great:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/us.c ... sDashboard
County at 75.8%, City at 53.9%
I guess that in normal circumstances this could be partly compensated by door-to-door activity, but not during the pandemic.
- 805
Wouldn’t them saying 75% mean that 75% of properties have reported? That still doesn’t tell them how many people live there, what their ethnicities are, how much they make, etc. all valuable information.Bart Harley Jarvis wrote:Genuine question. If they know that the County is at 75.8%, then don't they know what 100% is? If so, what's the point of the Census?kipfilet wrote: ↑Oct 21, 2020Self-response rates are in and are not great:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/us.c ... sDashboard
County at 75.8%, City at 53.9%
I guess that in normal circumstances this could be partly compensated by door-to-door activity, but not during the pandemic.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
- 1,610
If that's the case, how do they know if the other ~25% of properties are occupied or not?SeattleNative wrote: ↑Oct 22, 2020Wouldn’t them saying 75% mean that 75% of properties have reported? That still doesn’t tell them how many people live there, what their ethnicities are, how much they make, etc. all valuable information.Bart Harley Jarvis wrote:Genuine question. If they know that the County is at 75.8%, then don't they know what 100% is? If so, what's the point of the Census?kipfilet wrote: ↑Oct 21, 2020Self-response rates are in and are not great:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/us.c ... sDashboard
County at 75.8%, City at 53.9%
I guess that in normal circumstances this could be partly compensated by door-to-door activity, but not during the pandemic.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
- 398
I could be wrong, but I took the percentage as the number of survey's sent were returned? I know there were door to door pollsters in my apartment building, I helped them in our secure building to help the census.
^ I think you're pretty close. Self-response rates as I understand them are those that filled out the census online or returned the mailed form on their own.
The remainder are people that have always been historically hard to count. Minorities, immigrants, poor people, etc. They're hard to count for a variety of reasons...lack of internet or mail access, fear of the government (especially in the case of some minorities and especially immigrants, legal or otherwise), and a bunch of other reasons. Add in all the politically motivated bullsh*t with this census this time around like attempting to add a citizenship question, attempting to remove immigrants from the counts, ending the count early, etc and it's only making it all the more difficult to get an accurate count this year.
From what I have read...self-response rates are usually pretty close to what they are now. The biggest issue is the lack of extra time to go door to door and try and get those that didn't respond online or by mail. The pandemic delayed that stage by several months and the Trump Administration ended those efforts early. Without that the census will have to rely on a bunch of other (not always up to date) data, like Postal Service records, to try and get an accurate count.
My guess is St. Louis City is going to see a pretty sizable under-count.
Somewhat unrelated but a little closer to home...Amendment 3 (the reversal of Clean Missouri), on the ballot here would change state level redistricting to exclude children and undocumented immigrants from redistricting totals...something we've literally never done in Missouri or the US. It would severely curtail the representation in big cities and their suburbs like St. Louis and Kansas City, furthering the grip of rural interests on the state government.
Vote like your lives ***** depend on it.
The remainder are people that have always been historically hard to count. Minorities, immigrants, poor people, etc. They're hard to count for a variety of reasons...lack of internet or mail access, fear of the government (especially in the case of some minorities and especially immigrants, legal or otherwise), and a bunch of other reasons. Add in all the politically motivated bullsh*t with this census this time around like attempting to add a citizenship question, attempting to remove immigrants from the counts, ending the count early, etc and it's only making it all the more difficult to get an accurate count this year.
From what I have read...self-response rates are usually pretty close to what they are now. The biggest issue is the lack of extra time to go door to door and try and get those that didn't respond online or by mail. The pandemic delayed that stage by several months and the Trump Administration ended those efforts early. Without that the census will have to rely on a bunch of other (not always up to date) data, like Postal Service records, to try and get an accurate count.
My guess is St. Louis City is going to see a pretty sizable under-count.
Somewhat unrelated but a little closer to home...Amendment 3 (the reversal of Clean Missouri), on the ballot here would change state level redistricting to exclude children and undocumented immigrants from redistricting totals...something we've literally never done in Missouri or the US. It would severely curtail the representation in big cities and their suburbs like St. Louis and Kansas City, furthering the grip of rural interests on the state government.
Vote like your lives ***** depend on it.
That's what I meant in my original post: self-response rates are in line with what they have been historically, but they will likely be the bulk of all responses due to pandemic-related constraints (unlike what has happened in other years).sc4mayor wrote: ↑Oct 22, 2020From what I have read...self-response rates are usually pretty close to what they are now. The biggest issue is the lack of extra time to go door to door and try and get those that didn't respond online or by mail. The pandemic delayed that stage by several months and the Trump Administration ended those efforts early. Without that the census will have to rely on a bunch of other (not always up to date) data, like Postal Service records, to try and get an accurate count.
My guess is St. Louis City is going to see a pretty sizable under-count.
- 9,566
I cant believe that in 2020 Census data is still relevant, we have so many better ways to figure out how many people live in a geography.
What I'd like to know is if it would be legal to take a running count of people. What I mean by this is that when you move from your current house or apartment to a new one, you put down how many people will be living in your new place. You also put your origin spot so that the tally can be updated accordingly. This way we can get yearly results instead of every decade. It would be done by the cities and states rather than the feds.
- 1,610
If large portions of federal funding, as well as representation, are determined by the decennial Census, I don't think you'd want to let the folks who benefit from the counting being the ones doing the counting.chriss752 wrote: ↑Oct 22, 2020What I'd like to know is if it would be legal to take a running count of people. What I mean by this is that when you move from your current house or apartment to a new one, you put down how many people will be living in your new place. You also put your origin spot so that the tally can be updated accordingly. This way we can get yearly results instead of every decade. It would be done by the cities and states rather than the feds.
American Community Survey Data is out for 2019.
STL City: 300,576
STL County: 994,205
https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=st%20louis&tid=PEPPOP2019.PEPANNRES&hidePreview=false
STL City: 300,576
STL County: 994,205
https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=st%20louis&tid=PEPPOP2019.PEPANNRES&hidePreview=false
NPR: "Some Cities In America's Heartland Offer To Pay Remote Workers For Moving There"
Tulsa's giving $10K for remote workers to relocate there. Apparently Bentonville one-up'd em' and are offering $10K plus a bike.
Not sure it's a good look...
Tulsa's giving $10K for remote workers to relocate there. Apparently Bentonville one-up'd em' and are offering $10K plus a bike.
Not sure it's a good look...
- 6,123
^Well, everyone else is getting subsidies. And we can't seem to win just by offering fat subsidies to fancy rich jerks and their swanky corporate towers, so maybe subsidizing ordinary working saps is a better way to go. Honestly, we already give out tax incentives to medium to small players in the form of historic tax credits and tax abatements anyway. This just makes it a little more official and transparent. And maybe the subsidy goes to the person actually doing the work rather than the one graciously providing their capital.
Missouri falling short of Midwestern states between 2010 and 2020. Also the slowest growth since 1910z.
Illinois: -0.1%
Michigan: 2%
Ohio: 2.3%
Missouri: 2.8%
Kansas: 3%
Wisconsin: 3.6%
Iowa: 4.7%
Indiana: 4.7%
Nebraska: 7.4%
Minnesota: 7.6%
South Dakota: 8.9%
North Dakota: 15.8%
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Illinois: -0.1%
Michigan: 2%
Ohio: 2.3%
Missouri: 2.8%
Kansas: 3%
Wisconsin: 3.6%
Iowa: 4.7%
Indiana: 4.7%
Nebraska: 7.4%
Minnesota: 7.6%
South Dakota: 8.9%
North Dakota: 15.8%
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk