Now, I do not see Trump pulling a power grab here. To me, this talking point is one Democrats are pushing to scare people. On the Republican side, this false fantasy of mail in voting being a big fraud in a bid to steal the election is another way to scare voters. If Trump wins, Democrats will be pissed and be pushing all sorts of things to get him out. If Biden wins, Republicans will be doing the same thing. No one has civility to just shut up, accept the results of the election, congratulate the winner, and move on.
It's the President himself who is making everyone question stable transition of power by doing/saying things like he did at yesterday's press conference. If anything, both Democrats and sane Republicans are trying to downplay it.
I always thought I would see my home country in Southern Europe fall into a Latin-American level of political disarray in my lifetime. I would have never guessed that the US would get there first
You've got to be kidding. I'd bet that a great majority of those who plan to vote for Trump would never admit it.
In today's social/political climate, where you can get assaulted for simply wearing a MAGA hat, where you get eviscerated on social media for suggesting that there may be two sides to a story, where you can be Doxed for daring to express an opinion that doesn't follow the currently trending party line?
I'd say that there's a huge number of Trump voters that are very shy indeed. The good-ol'-boys yelling and screaming from pickup trucks make the headlines, but the quiet, conservative Republican base will be voting in large numbers.
Now, I do not see Trump pulling a power grab here. To me, this talking point is one Democrats are pushing to scare people. On the Republican side, this false fantasy of mail in voting being a big fraud in a bid to steal the election is another way to scare voters. If Trump wins, Democrats will be pissed and be pushing all sorts of things to get him out. If Biden wins, Republicans will be doing the same thing. No one has civility to just shut up, accept the results of the election, congratulate the winner, and move on.
It's the President himself who is making everyone question stable transition of power by doing/saying things like he did at yesterday's press conference.
^This. He did the same thing in 2016 even as HRC said the election would be legitimate. It's absolutely bonkers how often his own (usually stupid) words are then used against him and people try to defend him as being attacked or misquoted. His inability to say, "you know what, I said that, but I didn't mean to say it in that way. I understand why people would be upset" is infuriating.
Chris, not voting? Damn... Voting is what makes our great American Experiment special and count. Even if you don't like these two candidates, it's important to participate. I highly encourage you, and all others, to be a part of this whether I agree with your positions or not. Amidst this horrible environment of separation and division, the one thing that remains the greatest commonality is our collective participation in elections. All votes are equal, and damn right all votes matter.
Anyways... The big "tell" for what's going to happen, I believe, is the GOP Senate seeking to vote for Justice Ginsburg's successor. Echoing what dbInSouthCity stated above, their 180-degree abandonment of their word from 2016 (denying the Garland SC nomination during an election year) is not only brazen but also signifies to me that they anticipate losing their majorities in the Congress as well as 45 losing the White House no matter what bullcrap he tries to pull (and he'd sell his gold-digging wife and 4 of his 5 kids to stay in office). It's a giant statement that they're going for one last impactful moment before they're asked to step aside for the new crew this January. From this alone, I'd put real money bets in Vegas on Biden winning, straight up, no odds necessary.
At the market close, the S&P 500 is down 7.25% so far this September. For the whole year, it's up less than half of one percent while unemployment and bankruptcies are surging... Should the investment markets continue to slide like they've done all September through October and into November, it sure as hell won't help 45 stay in office. If there's a big market crash in October (greater than -10%), Biden will reap the whirlwind.
My eyes are also firmly on macro unemployment numbers as we reach the end of PPP restrictions on layoffs and furloughs. Could be huge.
Meanwhile, in regards to db's anticipating a 3-5% chance of "civil war", let's recognize that this is a very, very low statistic in and of itself but astoundingly high and terrifying when discussing the near-term resilience of American Democracy. I'm not seeing it happen, but I do plan on having my emergency reserves stocked up before Election Day because, no matter what happens, we'll have disruptions everywhere. I highly recommend everyone on here gets their planned Covid-19 Second Wave reserves together and add a little more to them than maybe y'all thought beforehand.
LeeHarveyAwesome: The big man in my office believes the same thing. I don't. I made a bet with him that that won't happen. With respect to the Duke Brothers in Trading Places, our bet is for $1.
Disclosure: I'm a former political operative with experience on both sides of the aisle, now an investment manager.
You've got to be kidding. I'd bet that a great majority of those who plan to vote for Trump would never admit it.
In today's social/political climate, where you can get assaulted for simply wearing a MAGA hat, where you get eviscerated on social media for suggesting that there may be two sides to a story, where you can be Doxed for daring to express an opinion that doesn't follow the currently trending party line?
I'd say that there's a huge number of Trump voters that are very shy indeed. The good-ol'-boys yelling and screaming from pickup trucks make the headlines, but the quiet, conservative Republican base will be voting in large numbers.
Yes, how awful to be judged for supporting an incompetent and terrible human being. Thoughts and prayers.
Chris, not voting? Damn... Voting is what makes our great American Experiment special and count. Even if you don't like these two candidates, it's important to participate. I highly encourage you, and all others, to be a part of this whether I agree with your positions or not. Amidst this horrible environment of separation and division, the one thing that remains the greatest commonality is our collective participation in elections. All votes are equal, and damn right all votes matter.
I don't view that my vote matters in a state that's going to vote for Trump, Parson, Kehoe, Schmitt, and Fitzpatrick. I may just vote on the County Executive race, 2nd Congressional District race, State Senate (1st District), House District (93rd District), and for the Amendments that are up to vote. My one tiny vote is nothing in the broader scheme of things.
You've got to be kidding. I'd bet that a great majority of those who plan to vote for Trump would never admit it.
In today's social/political climate, where you can get assaulted for simply wearing a MAGA hat, where you get eviscerated on social media for suggesting that there may be two sides to a story, where you can be Doxed for daring to express an opinion that doesn't follow the currently trending party line?
I'd say that there's a huge number of Trump voters that are very shy indeed. The good-ol'-boys yelling and screaming from pickup trucks make the headlines, but the quiet, conservative Republican base will be voting in large numbers.
Yeah I am sure republican base will vote, only issue is that gets you to about 35% vs 40% to the Democrat base. And the middle voters are on Biden by 10-15 points.
The whole “shy trump voter” thing came about because he won Pa and Michigan when polls said he would lose them but it wasn’t because of shy Trump voters it was because polls didn’t weigh properly for education to see what non college educated whites that voted Obama went to Trump. The polls in those states ended up being too college educated. Polling isn’t just as simple as calling 500 people. You have to make educated guesses (put intended) on whole host of issues like education, race, etc. in your sample size. Those issues are largely fixed as we seen in the deadly accurate 2018 polls. 7 point lead for Biden in Michigan today is very different from a 7 point Hillary lead in 2016 there
I don't view that my vote matters in a state that's going to vote for Trump, Parson, Kehoe, Schmitt, and Fitzpatrick.
People that advocate for historic preservation and use historic tax credits should take something of an interest in the gubernatorial election, instead of considering it a forgone conclusion.
If 2016 teaches us anything it's that election results can be unexpected. Passions are running high this cycle. Some surprises are certainly in store. Participation is important.
^^Agree and that is a very important point regarding polling. The 2016 polling "debacle" wasn't really a debacle: most polls are designed to measure the popular vote, and at the national level most polls were broadly correct (Clinton winning by around 2-3%). The electoral college adds an extra layer of uncertainty that most polls were not designed to capture, and most prominent polling outlets have adjusted their statistical models to account for that. For that reason, I tend to trust models that feed on multiple polls as inputs much more than I did in 2016. There is still the risk of the pendulum swinging too much in the other direction and models being recalibrated to put less weight on polls and more on other observables such as demographic characteristics and past behavior. A good example is FiveThirtyEight's model that is currently giving Trump a 67/100 chance of winning Georgia while his poll advantage has been averaging zero in the past few months.
You've got to be kidding. I'd bet that a great majority of those who plan to vote for Trump would never admit it.
In today's social/political climate, where you can get assaulted for simply wearing a MAGA hat, where you get eviscerated on social media for suggesting that there may be two sides to a story, where you can be Doxed for daring to express an opinion that doesn't follow the currently trending party line?
I'd say that there's a huge number of Trump voters that are very shy indeed. The good-ol'-boys yelling and screaming from pickup trucks make the headlines, but the quiet, conservative Republican base will be voting in large numbers.
Yeah I am sure republican base will vote, only issue is that gets you to about 35% vs 40% to the Democrat base. And the middle voters are on Biden by 10-15 points.
The whole “shy trump voter” thing came about because he won Pa and Michigan when polls said he would lose them but it wasn’t because of shy Trump voters it was because polls didn’t weigh properly for education to see what non college educated whites that voted Obama went to Trump. The polls in those states ended up being too college educated. Polling isn’t just as simple as calling 500 people. You have to make educated guesses (put intended) on whole host of issues like education, race, etc. in your sample size. Those issues are largely fixed as we seen in the deadly accurate 2018 polls. 7 point lead for Biden in Michigan today is very different from a 7 point Hillary lead in 2016 there
Thank you for the reasoned response (as opposed to the useless snark posted by an earlier member). If we can't rationally discuss issues, then the divide just gets wider.
The big man in my office believes the same thing. I don't. I made a bet with him that that won't happen. With respect to the Duke Brothers in Trading Places, our bet is for $1.
I can see the barbershop talks now “what are you up to after the haircut?!”
“My grandma died of covid so we got her funeral”
“Oh ok you should vote for Trum....huh yeah sorry to hear that”
On a serious note- 30 & under AA males are only about 55-60% Biden vs 80-90% older AA males. Now when you see the share of total votes that 30 & U AA males make up its very small.
The race as a whole is very clear. Let’s say trump gets all the same votes/voters he got in 2016 and Biden gets Clinton’s - Biden wins this because of 3rd party voters and new voters swinging to him
The big man in my office believes the same thing. I don't. I made a bet with him that that won't happen. With respect to the Duke Brothers in Trading Places, our bet is for $1.
The race as a whole is very clear. Let’s say trump gets all the same votes/voters he got in 2016 and Biden gets Clinton’s - Biden wins this because of 3rd party voters and new voters swinging to him
Is there any evidence that 2016 3rd party voters are moving toward voting for a major party candidate in one direction or the other?
The big man in my office believes the same thing. I don't. I made a bet with him that that won't happen. With respect to the Duke Brothers in Trading Places, our bet is for $1.
The race as a whole is very clear. Let’s say trump gets all the same votes/voters he got in 2016 and Biden gets Clinton’s - Biden wins this because of 3rd party voters and new voters swinging to him
Is there any evidence that 2016 3rd party voters are moving toward voting for a major party candidate in one direction or the other?
^ I saw something recently that showed undecided/third party were 50/50 split in 2016, but are 2/3 to 3/4 Biden this time around.
This is also shown in just overall polls. Clinton’s favorability never crossed 50% (neither did Trumps). Biden is almost always above 50% favorable with Trump doing slightly worse than his 42-43% favorable in 2016.
I understand the need to compare 2016 to this election but a few these key things are different. Biden is ~10 points more favorable than Clinton and there are far fewer undecided.
The race as a whole is very clear. Let’s say trump gets all the same votes/voters he got in 2016 and Biden gets Clinton’s - Biden wins this because of 3rd party voters and new voters swinging to him
Is there any evidence that 2016 3rd party voters are moving toward voting for a major party candidate in one direction or the other?
Now, I do not see Trump pulling a power grab here. To me, this talking point is one Democrats are pushing to scare people. On the Republican side, this false fantasy of mail in voting being a big fraud in a bid to steal the election is another way to scare voters. If Trump wins, Democrats will be pissed and be pushing all sorts of things to get him out. If Biden wins, Republicans will be doing the same thing. No one has civility to just shut up, accept the results of the election, congratulate the winner, and move on.
It's the President himself who is making everyone question stable transition of power by doing/saying things like he did at yesterday's press conference. If anything, both Democrats and sane Republicans are trying to downplay it.
I always thought I would see my home country in Southern Europe fall into a Latin-American level of political disarray in my lifetime. I would have never guessed that the US would get there first
Chris, not voting? Damn... Voting is what makes our great American Experiment special and count. Even if you don't like these two candidates, it's important to participate. I highly encourage you, and all others, to be a part of this whether I agree with your positions or not. Amidst this horrible environment of separation and division, the one thing that remains the greatest commonality is our collective participation in elections. All votes are equal, and damn right all votes matter.
I don't view that my vote matters in a state that's going to vote for Trump, Parson, Kehoe, Schmitt, and Fitzpatrick. I may just vote on the County Executive race, 2nd Congressional District race, State Senate (1st District), House District (93rd District), and for the Amendments that are up to vote. My one tiny vote is nothing in the broader scheme of things.
if you're already there and voting it makes zero sense to not put forth the effort to fill in the oval for Biden. c'mon. unless you're planning to vote for Trump, like my spouse's 80+ year-old Southern republican parents. please DO NOT vote for Trump.
urban_dilettante wrote:
if you're already there and voting it makes zero sense to not put forth the effort to fill in the oval for Biden. c'mon. unless you're planning to vote for Trump, like my spouse's 80+ year-old Southern republican parents. please DO NOT vote for Trump.
I cannot vote for Trump or Biden. No matter what. Even if I would die by not voting for those two. I will not vote for either of them
You've got to be kidding. I'd bet that a great majority of those who plan to vote for Trump would never admit it.
In today's social/political climate, where you can get assaulted for simply wearing a MAGA hat, where you get eviscerated on social media for suggesting that there may be two sides to a story, where you can be Doxed for daring to express an opinion that doesn't follow the currently trending party line?
I'd say that there's a huge number of Trump voters that are very shy indeed. The good-ol'-boys yelling and screaming from pickup trucks make the headlines, but the quiet, conservative Republican base will be voting in large numbers.
Yeah I am sure republican base will vote, only issue is that gets you to about 35% vs 40% to the Democrat base. And the middle voters are on Biden by 10-15 points.
The whole “shy trump voter” thing came about because he won Pa and Michigan when polls said he would lose them but it wasn’t because of shy Trump voters it was because polls didn’t weigh properly for education to see what non college educated whites that voted Obama went to Trump. The polls in those states ended up being too college educated. Polling isn’t just as simple as calling 500 people. You have to make educated guesses (put intended) on whole host of issues like education, race, etc. in your sample size. Those issues are largely fixed as we seen in the deadly accurate 2018 polls. 7 point lead for Biden in Michigan today is very different from a 7 point Hillary lead in 2016 there
Thank you for the reasoned response (as opposed to the useless snark posted by an earlier member). If we can't rationally discuss issues, then the divide just gets wider.
You are welcome, despite popular belief I don’t work in politics nor am I a political operative. I just really like political data and how states move together and differences between southern and northern whites without college degrees or difference between the Texas and Florida Hispanics or one of the most fascinating group of voters, the Obama-Trump voter who is blue collar pro choice, pro Obamacare but anti immigrant...and now they’re coming back home to a Biden
I also like a really good policy debate but nobody is really up for those since 2016. It’s all just shouting
urban_dilettante wrote:
if you're already there and voting it makes zero sense to not put forth the effort to fill in the oval for Biden. c'mon. unless you're planning to vote for Trump, like my spouse's 80+ year-old Southern republican parents. please DO NOT vote for Trump.
I cannot vote for Trump or Biden. No matter what. Even if I would die by not voting for those two. I will not vote for either of them
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Take away their politics and just look at the person there is no comparison. Joe Biden is a good decent man and Trump isn’t. Add politics and in the context of this forum and what’s discussed here- Biden admin would be much better for development and growth of STL city.
Also Biden won’t invest in MO this campaign because he doesn’t need it to win but he can win it if people vote.
urban_dilettante wrote:
if you're already there and voting it makes zero sense to not put forth the effort to fill in the oval for Biden. c'mon. unless you're planning to vote for Trump, like my spouse's 80+ year-old Southern republican parents. please DO NOT vote for Trump.
I cannot vote for Trump or Biden. No matter what. Even if I would die by not voting for those two. I will not vote for either of them
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
that's because your life won't be affected either way. think about those who stand to lose their freedoms (primarily women, LGBTQ+, and minorities) if Trump is re-elected with a mandate to rewrite laws to please his crazy conservative christian voters who want to enforce the christian version of sharia law.
^^ i'm not sure what point you're trying to make but if Pro-Life groups are opposing Biden (@2:20) and accusing him of "kneeling before the leftist mob," and if Trump is accusing him of being "against God," then Biden's got my vote.
